| “21世纪海上丝绸之路”集装箱海运网络的脆弱性变化 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴迪,王宇鹏,盛世杰,王诺.“21世纪海上丝绸之路”集装箱海运网络的脆弱性变化[J].地理学报,2022,77(8):2067-2082. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴迪 王宇鹏 盛世杰 王诺 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,大连 116026 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(72104042);国家自然科学基金项目(42030409);国家社会科学基金项目(20&ZD070);辽宁省社会科学基金项目(L19CGJ001) |
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| 摘 要： | 为探究“21世纪海上丝绸之路”集装箱海运网络在蓄意攻击下的脆弱性变化情况,基于蓄意攻击下集装箱海运网络的地理空间联系变化和网络分裂过程,提出了集装箱海运网络崩溃临界点的识别方法,进而建立了集装箱海运网络脆弱性变化趋势和程度的量化方法,并利用2015年和2019年海上丝绸之路中港口和航线的统计数据构建网络进行分析。结果表明：2015年和2019年“海上丝路”网络的蓄意攻击承受能力分别为4.21%和5.51%,说明2019年的“海上丝路”海运网络比2015年更加强壮,其相对变化率为30.88%;“海上丝路”网络脆弱性变化的驱动机制主要包括港口层级结构的差异性减弱、关键港口备份机制日趋完备、东亚和东南亚与其他区域间的集装箱海运联系更加紧密等。最后,从持续保障中国与“海上丝路”沿线各国集装箱海运互联互通的角度,提出了相应的对策和建议。研究成果对于揭示“海上丝路”海运网络的脆弱性变化及其驱动机制和影响因素,进而有针对性的持续保障该网络的互联互通,具有重要的理论意义和实用价值,且本文的分析方法对其他运输网络脆弱性变化的相关研究也可提供借鉴。
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| 关 键 词： | 海上丝绸之路 集装箱海运网络 蓄意攻击 脆弱性 驱动机制 影响因素 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-03-29 |
Vulnerability changes of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network under intentional attacks |
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| WU Di,WANG Yupeng,SHENG Shijie,WANG Nuo.Vulnerability changes of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network under intentional attacks[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2022,77(8):2067-2082. |
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| Authors: | WU Di WANG Yupeng SHENG Shijie WANG Nuo |
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| Institution: | Transportation Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China |
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| Abstract: | Since the release of "Vision and Actions on jointly building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" in 2015, the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network has experienced rapid development and significant changes along with the construction of the Belt and Road economic community. To explore changes in the vulnerability of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network under intentional attacks, this study proposed an identification method for the critical point of collapse of the container shipping network based on geospatial connection changes and the network fragmentation process under such attacks. In addition, a quantification method is developed for the change trend and degree of vulnerability of the container shipping network. The network was constructed using statistical data of ports and routes of the Maritime Silk Road in 2015 and 2019. The results show that the intentional attack tolerances of the networks in 2015 and 2019 were 4.21% and 5.51%, respectively, indicating that the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network in 2019 was stronger than that in 2015, with a relative change rate of 30.88%. The driving mechanisms for the vulnerability changes in the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network mainly included the diminished differentiation in the structure of the port hierarchy, the increasing completion of the backup mechanism of key ports, and the closer container shipping links of East and Southeast Asia with other regions. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for continuously guaranteeing the interconnection of container shipping between China and countries (regions) along the Maritime Silk Road. The results of this study have important theoretical significance and practical value for revealing the vulnerability changes of the Maritime Silk Road container shipping network and its driving mechanisms and influencing factors, as well as for ensuring the continuous interconnection of the network. The analysis method presented in this paper can provide a reference for related research on vulnerability changes in other transportation networks. |
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| Keywords: | Maritime Silk Road container shipping network intentional attacks vulnerability driving mechanisms influencing factors |
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