| 近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘宪锋,朱秀芳,潘耀忠,李双双,张东海,刘焱序.近53年内蒙古寒潮时空变化特征及其影响因素[J].地理学报,2014,69(7):1013-1024. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘宪锋 朱秀芳 潘耀忠 李双双 张东海 刘焱序 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 1008752. 北京师范大学资源学院, 北京1008753. 北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 1008754. 北京大学城市与环境学院, 北京 100871 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“高分辨率对地观测系统”重大专项资助~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 利用内蒙古及其周边121个气象台站1960-2013年逐日最低气温数据,辅以分段线性回归模型、趋势分析及相关分析等方法,本文探讨了近53年内蒙古寒潮频次的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究发现 (1) 近53年内蒙古单站寒潮频次总体呈下降趋势,降速为-0.5次/10a (-2.4~1.2次/10a),其中1991年之前降速为-1.1次/10a (-3.3~2.5次/10a),而1991年之后呈增加趋势,增速为0.45次/10a (-4.4~4.2次/10a);春季寒潮变化趋势与年变化趋势一致,且在各季节中变化最为显著;寒潮频次年内变化呈“双峰”结构特征,且以11月最多;(2) 空间上,内蒙古单站寒潮频次具有显著的空间差异特征,高发区集中在内蒙古的北部和中部地区,且北部高于中部。年代尺度对比来看,20世纪60-90年代寒潮高频区域范围在减少、低频区域范围在增加;而21世纪初期高频区域范围有所增加,增加区主要为内蒙古东部的图里河、小二沟,以及中部的西乌珠穆沁旗等地;(3) 就年尺度而言,寒潮主要受AO、NAO、CA、APVII和CQ控制,而各季节驱动因素有所差别,冬季寒潮与AO、NAO、SHI、CA、TPI、APVII、CW和IZ均达到显著相关关系,说明冬季寒潮受多种因素共同控制;秋季寒潮主要受CA和IM影响;而春季寒潮与CA和APVII关系显著。
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| 关 键 词： | 寒潮 分段线性回归 Sen+Mann-Kendall分析法 时空变化 影响因素 内蒙古 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-05-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-06-22 |
The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years |
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| Xianfeng LIU,Xiufang ZHU,Yaozhong PAN,Shuangshuang LI,Donghai ZHANG,Yanxu LIU.The spatial-temporal changes of cold surge in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2014,69(7):1013-1024. |
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| Authors: | Xianfeng LIU Xiufang ZHU Yaozhong PAN Shuangshuang LI Donghai ZHANG Yanxu LIU |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China2. College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China4. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the daily minimum temperature data of 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and its surrounding areas, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surge and its possible influencing factors in Inner Mongolia during 1960-2012, based on piecewise regression model, Sen+Mann-Kendall model, and correlation analysis. The results show that, (1) The occurrence frequency of single-station cold surge presented a decreasing trend in Inner Mongolia during recent 53 years, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a (-2.4-1.2 times/10a), of which a significant decreasing trend was detected before 1991, being -1.1 times/10a (-3.3-2.5 times/10a), while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a (-4.4-4.2 times/10a) was found after 1991. On the seasonal scale, the trend of spring cold surge was consistent with that of the annual value, and the most obvious change of cold surge also occurred in spring. The frequency of monthly cold surge showed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. (2) Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, and higher in the northern than the central part. The inter-decadal characteristic also detected that high frequency and low frequency regions presented a decreasing trend and an increasing trend, respectively, during 1960-1990, while high frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, regions with high frequency of cold surge were mainly distributed in Tol Gol, Xiao’ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. (3) On annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ, while the difference in driving forces among seasons was detected. Winter cold surge was significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating that cold surge in winter was caused multifactor. Autumn cold surge was mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surge was significantly correlated with CA and APVII. |
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| Keywords: | cold surge piecewise regression Sen+Mann-Kendall spatiotemporal variations influencing factors Inner Mongolia |
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