Modeling urban expansion by using variable weights logistic cellular automata: a case study of Nanjing,China |
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| Authors: | Bangrong Shu Martha M Bakker Honghui Zhang Yongle Li Wei Qin Gerrit J Carsjens |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geography, Geomatics and Planning, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, China;2. Land Use Planning Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands;3. School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China;4. College of Public Administration, Nanjing University of Finance &5. Economics, Nanjing, China;6. Department of Soil Quality, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Simulation models based on cellular automata (CA) are widely used for understanding and simulating complex urban expansion process. Among these models, logistic CA (LCA) is commonly adopted. However, the performance of LCA models is often limited because the fixed coefficients obtained from binary logistic regression do not reflect the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of transition rules. Therefore, we propose a variable weights LCA (VW-LCA) model with dynamic transition rules. The regression coefficients in this VW-LCA model are based on VW by incorporating a genetic algorithm in a conventional LCA. The VW-LCA model and the conventional LCA model were both used to simulate urban expansion in Nanjing, China. The models were calibrated with data for the period 2000–2007 and validated for the period 2007–2013. The results showed that the VW-LCA model performed better than the LCA model in terms of both visual inspection and key indicators. For example, kappa, accuracy of urban land and figure of merit for the simulation results of 2013 increased by 3.26%, 2.96% and 4.44%, respectively. The VW-LCA model performs relatively better compared with other improved LCA models that are suggested in literature. |
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| Keywords: | Urban expansion simulation variable weights logistic cellular automata genetic algorithm Nanjing city |
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