| ARIMA乘积季节模型在大坝位移监测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈艳华,邹进贵,李波,王涛.ARIMA乘积季节模型在大坝位移监测中的应用[J].测绘信息与工程,2014(2):35-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈艳华 邹进贵 李波 王涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 武汉大学测绘学院;精密工程与工业测量国家测绘地理信息局重点实验室; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41074025) |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了应用ARIMA乘积季节模型对大坝位移监测数据进行分析和预报的新方法，并给出了基于开源R语言建立乘积季节模型的方法步骤和关键技术。结合某大坝径向位移监测数据进行计算分析，结果表明：ARIMA乘积季节模型能较准确地预报大坝位移趋势，具有较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 乘积季节模型 大坝径向位移 分析与预报 |
Application of Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model in Dam Displacement Monitoring |
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| CHEN Yanhua,ZOU Jingui,LI Bo,WANG Tao.Application of Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model in Dam Displacement Monitoring[J].Journal of Geomatics,2014(2):35-38. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Yanhua ZOU Jingui LI Bo WANG Tao |
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| Institution: | 1 School of Geodesy and Geomatics Wuhan University ; 2 Key Laboratory of Precise Engineering and Industry Surveying, National Administration of Surveying, Mapping and Geoinformation, 129 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430079, China) |
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| Abstract: | A new method of applying muhiplicative seasonal ARIMA model to the analysis and prediction of dam displacement monitoring has been proposed. The procedures and key technologies to build multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model based on open source programming R language has also been put forward. Combined with the calculation and analysis of one specific dam＇ s radical displacement monitoring data, the re- suits show that the muhiplicative seasonal ARIMA model can predict the displacement tendency with fair accuracy and have preferable prediction precision. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model multiplicative seasonal model dam radical displacement analysis and prediction |
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