| 基于MATLAB的铁路路基沉降预测优化方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘鹏鹏,李仲勤.基于MATLAB的铁路路基沉降预测优化方法[J].北京测绘,2020(4):580-583. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘鹏鹏 李仲勤 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学土木工程学院;兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 高速铁路路基的工后沉降严重影响着行车安全。在已有的预测模型中,所采用的初始数据往往不能满足等时间周期采集,而且还会伴随着一系列不可避免的观测误差,模型本身的误差累计,不能进行长期预测。文中利用最小二乘原理对初始值进行拟合改进,采用Lagrange插值方法将非等间隔序列转为等间隔序列,并基于新陈更替GM(1,1)模型利用MATLAB建立沉降预测模型;在此基础上,提出对模型残差进行GM改正以提高模型精度的方法。研究表明,通过对初始值序列改正后的模型具有较好的适应性,优化改进后的模型预测误差小,预测精度优于新陈更替GM(1,1)模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 动态GM(1 1) 初始值改进 模型优化 铁路路基 沉降预测 |
Optimization of the Railway Embankment Settlement Prediction Method Based on MATLAB |
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| LIU Pengpeng,LI Zhongqin.Optimization of the Railway Embankment Settlement Prediction Method Based on MATLAB[J].Beijing Surveying and Mapping,2020(4):580-583. |
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| Authors: | LIU Pengpeng LI Zhongqin |
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| Institution: | (College of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou Gansu 730070, China;College of Geomatics, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou Gansu 730070, China) |
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| Abstract: | The post-construction settlement of the high-speed railway subgrade seriously affects the driving safety.In the existing prediction models,the initial data used often cannot meet the equal time period acquisition,and it is accompanied by a series of unavoidable observation errors.The error of the model itself is accumulated,and long-term prediction cannot be performed.The initial value is improved by using the least squares principle.The non-equal interval sequence is converted into an equally spaced sequence by Lagrange interpolation method,and the settlement prediction model is established by using MATLAB based on the new replacement GM(1,1)model.In the above,a method of GM correction of model residuals to improve the accuracy of the model is proposed.The research shows that the model has better adaptability to the model with the initial value sequence correction.The improved model has less prediction error and the prediction accuracy is better than the replacement GM(1,1)model. |
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| Keywords: | dynamic Grey system theory Model(GM) initial value improvement model optimization railway subgrade settlement prediction |
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