| 多尺度ARMA残差修正模型震前电离层TEC异常探测 |
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| 引用本文： | 汤俊,毛文飞.多尺度ARMA残差修正模型震前电离层TEC异常探测[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2019,44(6):791-798. |
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| 作者姓名： | 汤俊 毛文飞 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.华东交通大学土木建筑学院, 江西 南昌, 330013 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金41504025国家自然科学基金41761089江西省自然科学基金20181BAB203027中国博士后基金2015M582312江西省教育厅基金GJJ170362 |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高电离层总电子含量（total electronic content，TEC）扰动探测参考背景值的预测精度，提出了多尺度自回归移动平均（autoregressive moving average，ARMA）残差修正模型。通过对比该方法、ARMA模型、四分位距法（inter quartile range，IQR）及滑动时窗法对TEC背景值的预测精度，结果显示修正模型预测的TEC背景值平均相对精度为89.78%，分别比ARMA模型、IQR及滑动时窗法高5.18%、1.41%和1.42%，且预测值的残差绝对值小于等于3.0 TECU的百分比为91.67%，明显优于其他3种方法，说明修正模型探测震前TEC异常是可行的。利用该方法探测2013-04-20芦山县Mw7.0级地震震前电离层TEC扰动情况，验证了该方法的有效性。实验结果表明，震前第9天和第13天电离层明显的正异常和震前第1~4天明显的负异常极可能是孕育地震引起的，且正异常主要出现在08:00-10:00 UT，而负异常主要集中在0:00-14:00 UT。
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| 关 键 词： | 多尺度 ARMA 残差修正 地震 电离层TEC异常 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-06-24 |
Multi-Scale ARMA Residual Correction Model for Detecting Pre-earthquake Ionospheric Anomalies |
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| Institution: | 1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, East China Jiaotong University, Nanchang 330013, China2.School of Geodesy and Geomatics, East China University of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China3.State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics, Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, China |
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| Abstract: | To improve the prediction accuracy of the background values of the ionospheric total electronic content (TEC) disturbance, we have proposed multi-scale autoregressive moving average (ARMA) residual correction model (MARCM) by comparing the precision of this method, ARMA model, inter quartile range(IQR)and sliding window method in predicting the ionospheric total electronic content reference background values. The results show that the average relative accuracy of TEC background value predicted by MARCM is 89.78%, which is higher than the ARMA model, IQR and sliding window method with values of 5.18%, 1.41% and 1.42% respectively and show that the percentage of absolute residual values less than or equal to 3.0 TECU predicted by MARCM is 91.67%, significantly better than the other three methods, It is demorstrated that using MARCM to detect pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies is feasible. We use this method to detect pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies of the earthquake happened in Lushan on April 20, 2013, and prove the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that obviously ionospheric positive anomalies on 9 and 13 days before the earthquake and apparently ionospheric negative anomalies on 1 to 4 days before the earthquake, are most likely to be caused by the earthquake. And positive anomalies mainly emerge in the 08:00 UT to 10:00 UT, the negative anomalies are mainly concentrated in 00:00 UT to 14:00 UT |
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