| 改进灰色马尔科夫模型在基坑预测中的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨帆,赵增鹏,王小兵.改进灰色马尔科夫模型在基坑预测中的研究[J].测绘与空间地理信息,2017,40(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨帆 赵增鹏 王小兵 |
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| 作者单位： | 辽宁工程技术大学 测绘与地理科学学院,辽宁 阜新,123000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，辽宁省"百千万人才工程"入选资助项目，辽宁省教育厅重点实验室基础研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基坑预测问题关系到工程施工的安全,在施工过程中对基坑进行周密的监测和变性预测分析显得尤为重要。针对传统预测模型存在固有偏差和可靠性低的缺点,采用新陈代谢的原理对无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型进行改进。该模型先用无偏灰色模型拟合系统的总体变化趋势,然后,对拟合残差进行马尔可夫状态划分,并根据各阶权重对不同步长的转移矩阵进行加权处理,用加权后的无偏灰色马尔科夫模型进行预测。在每一步的预测中,利用新陈代谢的原理不断更新建模所使用的数据。将该模型用于基坑沉降预测,并通过实例进行验证。实验表明:基于新陈代谢的无偏灰色加权马尔科夫模型提高了基坑沉降预测的精度和可靠性,预测精度与未改进模型相比提高了8.54%。
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| 关 键 词： | 无偏灰色 加权马尔科夫 基坑沉降预测 新陈代谢 |
Prediction of Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on Improved Grey Markov Model |
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| YANG Fan,ZHAO Zeng-peng,WANG Xiao-bing.Prediction of Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on Improved Grey Markov Model[J].Geomatics & Spatial Information Technology,2017,40(7). |
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| Authors: | YANG Fan ZHAO Zeng-peng WANG Xiao-bing |
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| Abstract: | Foundation prediction problem is related to the safety of the construction project, in the construction process of foundation for careful monitoring and prediction analysis is particularly important.In view of the traditional grey Markov forecasting model in the presence of defects and the inherent deviation and low reliability, the metabolism unbiased grey weighted Markov model is built.The model first with unbiased grey model to fit the system of overall trend, then the residuals of Markov state division, and weighted according to the weight of each order of different step transfer matrix, weighted Markov model prediction.In each step of the forecast, the use of new information priority principle, and constantly update the data used in modeling.The method is used in prediction of foundation sedimentation, and is verified by examples.The results show that the unbiased gray weighted Markov model based on metabolism improves the accuracy and reliability of the foundation settlement prediction.The prediction accuracy is improved by 8.54% on the basis of the improved model. |
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| Keywords: | unbiased grey weighted Markov foundation settlement prediction metabolism |
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