| 雷达资料在雷电临近预警中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴量,冯桂力,杨仲江,黄玲光,程斌.雷达资料在雷电临近预警中的应用研究[J].成都信息工程学院学报,2011(6):669-674. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴量 冯桂力 杨仲江 黄玲光 程斌 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学大气物理学院;山东省雷电防护技术中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了寻求济南地区地闪发生的临近预警指标,综合利用多普勒雷达资料、闪电定位和探空资料,对2009年7~8月和2010年6月距离齐河雷达站200km范围内的41个对流云团进行统计分析,重点是统计分析了闪电发生前的雷达回波参量特征值。初步的研究结果表明:对于该地区单独使用雷达反射率而言,最好的预警指标是在-10℃高度上出现40dBz的反射率阈值,使用这种方法的预警准确率是96%、虚警率是14%、临界成功指数是83%、平均预警时间是21min。在考虑雷达反射率的基础上再考虑最大回波顶高(≥10km)和垂直液态水含量(≥8.5kg.m-2)预警指标时,能有效降低虚假报警率和提高临界成功指数,此时选取的雷达反射率指标是在-20℃高度上出现25dBz的反射率阈值。
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| 关 键 词： | 雷电预警 雷达反射率 回波顶高 垂直液态水含量 |
Application Study of Radar Data in Lightning Warning |
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| WU Liang,FENG Gui-li,YANG Zhong-jiang,HUANG Ling-guang,CHENG Bin.Application Study of Radar Data in Lightning Warning[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,2011(6):669-674. |
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| Authors: | WU Liang FENG Gui-li YANG Zhong-jiang HUANG Ling-guang CHENG Bin |
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| Institution: | 1(1.School of Atmospheric Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Shandong Lightning Protection and Technology Center,Jinan 250031,China) |
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| Abstract: | The data obtained by Doppler radar, radiosonde and lightning location system from 41 convective cells, which occurred in the periods of July-August 2009 and June 2010, within 200km of the Qihe radar station were ana- lyzed to study the lightning warning indicator. The characteristics of radar parameters ahead of lightning occurrence were studied by statistical method. The best predictor of the cloud-to-ground （C_G） lightning was found to be a - 40dBz reflectivity level detected at an altitude with an environmental temperature of - 10~C, with an average leading time of 21 min. The percent of doom （POD）, false alarm rate （FAR） and critical success index （CSI） are 96%, 14 % and 83 %, respectively. Echo tops reaching or exceeding 10 km and vertically integrated liquid water content （VIL） exceeding 8.5kg＂ m-2 were necessary conditions prior to or at the time of the first CG lightning occurrence. When the three parameters （radar reflectivity, echo top height and VIL） were analyzed synthetically, it is found that the best predictor of the onset of CG lightning was a -25dBz reflectivity at an altitude with an environmental tem- perature of -20~C, which could effectively reduce the FAR and improve the CSI. |
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| Keywords: | lightning warning radar reflectivity radar echo top vertically integrated liquid water content |
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