| 随机动力模式中误差对气候预报的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 王永华.随机动力模式中误差对气候预报的影响[J].成都信息工程学院学报,1989(1). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王永华 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海市气象局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用时间平均的矩方程随机动力气候模式,对大尺度大气系统的演化情况进行了计算,其中考虑了初始条件的误差和外部非绝热加热的误差对系统稳定性的影响,并比较了它们的相对重要性。同时,此结果又与以随机试验得到的结果进行了比较,积分两个月的结论是:矩方法在本模式中可以近似代替随机试验,初始条件的误差对系统稳定性的影响较外部加热的误差的影响要大。
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| 关 键 词： | 动力气象学 动力稳定性 随机模式 气候预报 |
EFFECTS OF ERRORS ON CLIMATE PREDICTION IN A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC MODEL |
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| Wang Yonghua.EFFECTS OF ERRORS ON CLIMATE PREDICTION IN A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC MODEL[J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,1989(1). |
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| Authors: | Wang Yonghua |
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| Institution: | Shanghai Weather Bureau |
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| Abstract: | The evolution of large scale system is examined in a time-averaged stoch-astic dynamic model of moment equations, in which effects of the errors of initial conditions and external diabatic heating on the stability of climatic system are included. The effect of initial errors on the system stability is greater than that's of ex-ternal diabatic heating. |
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| Keywords: | Dynamical meteorology Dynamic stability Conceptual model Climatic forecasting |
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