| 近10年黑龙江省气温的时空变异分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨凤海,孙彦坤,于太义,侯淑涛,沈能展.近10年黑龙江省气温的时空变异分析[J].地球信息科学,2009,11(5):585-596. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨凤海 孙彦坤 于太义 侯淑涛 沈能展 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学, 哈尔滨 150030;
2. 伊春职业学院, 伊春市 153000 |
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| 基金项目： | 东北农业大学创新团队基金项目“黑土区保护与可持续利用”(CXT003-4-2) |
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| 摘 要： | 以ArcGIS Analyst为支撑,80个气象站点观测的1997-2006年的旬平均气温为插值变量,利用高程、坡向等影响气温空间分异的局地因素作为协同变量,采用协同克里格(CoKriging)方法,考虑旬平均气温的自相关性以及旬平均气温与高程、坡向空间上的关联性,通过数据的检查、误差拟合、精度评价和模型比较,对黑龙江省旬平均气温进行空间插值,求得全省1km×1km的各旬平均气温表面数据。36旬气温插值结果的均误差、均方根误差、平均标准差、标准化均误差和均方根标准差的平均数分别为0.0024℃、0.774℃、0.682℃、0.0006和1.124。由旬平均气温插值结果叠加计算出月、年平均气温表面数据。利用插值计算结果和气象站点观测的数据,分析旬、月和年平均气温的时空分异特征,得出空间上东南部地区分异较小,其他地区分异较大时间上11-13、12-14、19-21等旬期平均气温有平稳下降趋势,15-17、26-28和27-29等旬期平均气温有平稳升高趋势。7月气温有稍许下降趋势,9月和11月的平均气温稍有上升趋势,5-9月平均气温升高约1℃。年平均气温以2.9℃为均值在2.5~3.3℃之间波动,略有升高但无明显上升趋势。春季之交一些旬期平均气温变化率降低趋稳,夏秋之交一些旬期平均气温变化率升高,实际物候有向后延迟的迹象。研究结果为气温变化监测、农业区划、土地生产潜力计算和千亿斤粮食背景下作物估产等相关研究奠定基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 黑龙江省 气温 变异 协同克里格法 ArcGIS |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-01-09; |
The Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of Air Temperature in Heilongjiang Province during 1997 -2006 |
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| YANG Fenghai,SUN Yankun,YU Taiyi,HOU Shutao,SHEN Nengzhan.The Spatiotemporal Variation Analysis of Air Temperature in Heilongjiang Province during 1997 -2006[J].Geo-information Science,2009,11(5):585-596. |
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| Authors: | YANG Fenghai SUN Yankun YU Taiyi HOU Shutao SHEN Nengzhan |
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| Institution: | 1. Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;
2. Yichun Vocational College,Yichun City 153000,China |
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| Abstract: | Spatial interpolation of average 10-day air temperatures were conducted at the scale of 1km×1km in Heilongjiang Province with CoKriging method through data exploring,error fitting,accuracy evaluating and model comparing.In this course,ground elevation and aspect data that are the local factors bringing on the spatial variation of air temperature were used to consider the autocorrelation of 10-day period air temperature and its relation to them,adopting 10 years of average 10-day air temperature data of 80 weather stations from 1997 to 2006 as interpolation variables.Cross-validation results show that the averages of mean,root-mean-square,average standard,mean standardized and root-mean-standardized errors are 0.0024℃,0.774℃,0.682℃,0.0006 and 1.124 respectively.According to the principle of geostatistics,this interpolation accuracy can meet the demand of climate change research all over the province in a macro level.On the basis of 10-day surface air temperature,average monthly and yearly surface air temperature have been work out.By the use of interpolation and calculation data of average 10-day air temperature and all data from weather stations as data source,spatiotemporal variation characteristics of average 10-day period,monthly and yearly air temperature have been analyzed to show that their spatial variation of air temperature in the Southeast are less than in other regions and,temporal variation of 11-13th,12-14th and 19-21st 10-day period are a smooth downward trend,15-17th,26-28th and 27-29th 10-day period are steadily rising trend,average air temperature in July are slightly downward trend,a slight upward trend in September and November,and about 1℃ higher between 5-9 months.The mean value of average annual air temperature is 2.9 ℃ fluctuating between 2.5-3.3 ℃ and being a little rising but no obvious trend.Change ratio of some average 10-day air temperature become lower and stable between spring and summer,higher between summer and autumn,indicating the shift of boundary among seasons.All of the air temperature data attained above by interpolation and calculation can be put into a geodatabase by which spatiotemporal variation of air temperature has been analyzed in order to lay a foundation to air temperature change monitoring,land capability evaluation,agricultural regionalization and crop yield estimation for related research in the future. |
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| Keywords: | Heilongjiang Province air temperature differentiation CoKriging ArcGIS |
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