| 国土空间规划视角下的城镇开发边界划定和空间管控体系构建 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈霆,徐伟铭,吴升,刘洁.国土空间规划视角下的城镇开发边界划定和空间管控体系构建[J].地球信息科学,2022,24(2):263-279. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈霆 徐伟铭 吴升 刘洁 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.福州大学数字中国研究院（福建）,福州 3501082.福州大学空间数据挖掘与信息共享教育部重点实验室,福州 3500023.福州大学地理空间信息技术国家地方联合工程技术研究中心,福州 350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(A类XDA23100502);福建省科技厅引导性项目(2017Y0055) |
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| 摘 要： | 新时期国土空间规划背景下,科学合理地划定城镇开发边界,建立健全的国土空间用途管制制度是有序引导国土空间各类开发保护行为的重要举措。本文以福州市为例,构建了一种全域多维度国土空间管控体系,将其管控约束条件嵌入未来土地利用格局模拟中。同时,顾及区域空间异质性和时空依赖性,设计了一种服务于城镇开发边界划定的集成地理分区策略、深度学习技术、FLUS模型功能模块的时空元胞自动机ST-CA（Spatio-Temporal Cellular Automata）模型。基于已有成果集成三区三线,开展“划管结合”思维下的空间管控应用研究。结果表明：① 顾及区域空间异质性和时空依赖性的ST-CA模型可以有效提高土地利用变化模拟精度（OA指标从95.95%提升至98.34%）,实现更为真实、准确的地理模拟过程;② 地理模拟过程中嵌入管控约束条件,可引导城镇、农业和生态3类空间合理布局且规模可控,基于模拟结果划定的城镇开发边界能有效避开规划保护用地;③ 未来模拟预测结果结合管控预警值可看出,福州市主城区及周边区县的城镇扩张形势比较严峻,未来亟需对福州市国土空间格局进行合理调控;④ 边界变化趋势特征表明划定结果与福州市的远景发展规划布局一致,符合区域发展诉求,国土空间格局呈现多轴化发展趋势。研究结果可为福州市国土空间开发保护行为提供科学谋划,为国土空间管控及优化提供实践参考依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 国土空间规划 城镇开发边界 空间管控体系 时空元胞自动机 福州市 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-09-15 |
Delimitation of Urban Development Boundary and Construction of Space Control System from the Perspective of Territorial Spatial Planning |
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| CHEN Ting,XU Weiming,WU Sheng,LIU Jie.Delimitation of Urban Development Boundary and Construction of Space Control System from the Perspective of Territorial Spatial Planning[J].Geo-information Science,2022,24(2):263-279. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Ting XU Weiming WU Sheng LIU Jie |
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| Institution: | 1. The Academy of Digital China, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China2. Key Laboratory of Spatial Data Mining & Information Sharing of Ministry of Education, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China3. National Engineering Research Centre of Geospatial Information Technology, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350002, China |
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| Abstract: | Under the background of territorial spatial planning in the new period, delimiting the urban development boundary scientifically and reasonably and establishing a sound territorial space use control system are important measures to guide all kinds of territorial space development and protection. Taking Fuzhou City as an example, this paper constructs a global multi-dimensional territorial space control system. Management and control constraints are embedded in the future land use pattern simulation. At the same time, considering the regional spatial heterogeneity and spatial-temporal dependence, this paper designs the Spatial-temporal Cellular Automata (ST-CA) model which integrates geographical partition strategy, deep learning technology, and the functional module of FLUS model to delimit the urban development boundary. Based on the existing achievements, this study integrates three zones and three lines to carry out the application research of spatial management and control under the thinking of "combination of planning and control". The results show that: (1) The ST-CA model considering regional spatial heterogeneity and spatial-temporal dependence can effectively improve the accuracy of land use change simulation and achieve a more realistic and accurate geographical simulation process. The overall accuracy of the model increased from 95.95% to 98.34%; (2) Control constraints are embedded in the process of geographical simulation, which can guide the rational layout and controllable scale of urban, agricultural, and ecological spaces. Delimitation of urban development boundary based on simulation results can effectively avoid occupation on protected land; (3) The future simulation results combined with the control early warning value show that the urban expansion situation in the main urban area and surrounding districts and counties of Fuzhou City is relatively severe. In the future, it is urgent to reasonably regulate the territorial space pattern of Fuzhou City; (4) The characteristics of boundary change trend show that the delimitation results are consistent with the long-term development planning of Fuzhou City, which is in line with regional development demands. The territorial space pattern presents a multi-axis development trend. The research results can provide scientific planning for the development and protection of territorial space and practical reference for territorial space control and optimization in Fuzhou City. |
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| Keywords: | territorial spatial planning urban development boundary space control system spatio-temporal cellular automata Fuzhou city |
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