| 近40年来中国大陆地表气温变化估算 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙朝阳,邵全琴,刘纪远.近40年来中国大陆地表气温变化估算[J].地球信息科学,2012,14(1):14-21. |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙朝阳 邵全琴 刘纪远 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目（2006BAC08B00）; 国家“973”计划项目（2010CB950900、2009CB421105）; 中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目（KZCX2-YW-305-3） |
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| 摘 要： | 本文对近20年来中国地表气温变化估算方法进行了全面的总结,并对不同研究者所采用的资料、时间尺度及研究结果进行了对比分析。结合当前国际上应用较多的几种升温估算方法,本文以1970-2007年的气温数据为基础,分别应用直接算术平均法、逐站计算法、区域面积加权法、一级差分法和空间插值法,对中国大陆近40年的升温幅度分别进行了估算,从结果的对比分析中揭示中国地表气温变化估算中存在的不确定性:中国大陆地区近40年来的增温趋势在0.30~0.43℃/10a之间,升温幅度在1.16~1.56℃之间;冬季升温最为显著,夏季升温最少;整体上北方升温幅度高于南方。不同计算方法计算得到的增温速率在绝对值上有着一定差异,但整体趋势是相同的。
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| 关 键 词： | 全球变暖 气候变化 气温变化估算 不确定性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2011-11-03; |
Application Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change Estimation Methods in Chinese Mainland |
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| SUN Chaoyang,SHAO Quanqin and LIU Jiyuan.Application Analysis of Surface Air Temperature Change Estimation Methods in Chinese Mainland[J].Geo-information Science,2012,14(1):14-21. |
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| Authors: | SUN Chaoyang SHAO Quanqin and LIU Jiyuan |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing100101,China; 2.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100049,China; 3.National Climate Center,Beijing100081,China) |
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| Abstract: | The methods used in surface air temperature change estimation in Chinese Mainland during recent 20 years are summarized in this paper,and data materials,temporal scale and results in different researcher＇s study are contrastively analyzed.Based on the meteorological observation air temperature data from 1970 to 2007 and several popular warming estimation methods internationally used,we estimated the warming trend in recent 40 years.The results of direct average method,calculation by station method,regional area weighted method,first difference method and spatial interpolation method show the same warming trend in recent years and every season in Chinese Mainland,but vary in quantities clearly.The uncertainties in warming estimation with different methods are analyzed and it is concluded that the warming trend in recent 40 years ranges from 0.30-0.43℃/10a,the warming amplitude is between 1.16 and 1.56℃,warming is most apparent in winter and slightest in summer,warming in the northern part is more than in the southern part. |
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| Keywords: | global warming climate change air temperature change estimation uncertainty analysis |
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