| 基于变形信息分解的大坝变形趋势判断及预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郝永河,郝永艳,唐承忠,杨华.基于变形信息分解的大坝变形趋势判断及预测研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2021,41(8):841-845. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郝永河 郝永艳 唐承忠 杨华 |
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| 作者单位： | 鄂尔多斯市土壤肥料和节水农业工作站,内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市康巴什区,017000;山西省煤炭地质水文勘查研究院,太原市坞城路95号,030006;鄂尔多斯市水旱灾害防御中心,内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市康巴什区,017000;太原市杏花岭区防震减灾中心,太原市胜利街99号,030013 |
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| 摘 要： | 在分离大坝变形数据信息的基础上，利用重标极差法实现大坝变形趋势判断，然后利用优化极限学习机及混沌理论实现大坝变形预测。重标极差分析表明，大坝变形始终具有正向持续性，但其程度具有减弱趋势。在变形预测过程中，模型参数的递进优化不仅能提高预测精度，还能有效提高其稳定性，预测模型的相对误差均值均小于2%，验证了本文预测思路的有效性。大坝变形趋势判断及预测结果一致性较好，均认为大坝变形仍会进一步增加，但增加幅度相对较小，趋向于稳定发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 大坝变形 重标极差法 变形趋势 极限学习机 变形预测 |
Research on Dam Deformation Trend Judgment and Prediction Based on Deformation Information Decomposition |
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| HAO Yonghe,HAO Yongyan,TANG Chengzhong,YANG Hua.Research on Dam Deformation Trend Judgment and Prediction Based on Deformation Information Decomposition[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2021,41(8):841-845. |
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| Authors: | HAO Yonghe HAO Yongyan TANG Chengzhong YANG Hua |
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| Abstract: | Based on the information separation of dam deformation data, we use the rescaled range method to judge the dam deformation trend, and then use the optimized extreme learning machine and chaos theory to realize the deformation prediction. The rescaled range analysis shows that the dam deformation always has positive persistence, but its degree has a weakening trend. The progressive optimization of model parameters can not only improve the prediction accuracy, but also effectively improves its stability in the process of deformation prediction, and the average relative error of the prediction model is less than 2%, which verifies the effectiveness of the prediction ideas in this paper. Compared with the dam deformation trend judgment and prediction results, it is concluded that the dam deformation will further increase, but the increase range is relatively small, and tends to be stable. |
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| Keywords: | dam deformation rescaled range method deformation trend extreme learning machine deformation prediction |
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