| 太原盆地地震潜势分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张井飞,谢富仁,荆振杰,杜义,黄学猛.太原盆地地震潜势分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2011,31(5):47-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张井飞 谢富仁 荆振杰 杜义 黄学猛 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地壳应力研究所,北京,100085 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局地震行业科研专项(200908001) |
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| 摘 要： | 将太原盆地划分为4个区段,利用近年来在各区段取得的古地震数据,通过实时概率模型,对每个区段分别进行强震潜势的定量评估.得出太原-文水区与太谷区未来50年内发生7级以上强震的概率分别为7.1％和15％,100年内为13.9％与27.8％,而介休-平遥区与汾阳区发生7级以上强震的可能性极小.
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| 关 键 词： | 太原盆地 活动断裂 地震潜势 地震构造 实时概率模型 |
ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC POTENTIAL IN TAIYUAN BASIN |
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| Zhang Jingfei,Xie Furen,Jing Zhenjie,Du Yi,Huang Xuemeng.ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC POTENTIAL IN TAIYUAN BASIN[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2011,31(5):47-51. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Jingfei Xie Furen Jing Zhenjie Du Yi Huang Xuemeng |
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| Institution: | Zhang Jingfei,Xie Furen,Jing Zhenjie,Du Yi and Huang Xuemeng (Institute of Crustal Dynamics,CEA,Beijing 100085) |
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| Abstract: | The Taiyuan basin is divided into four sections: the Taiyuan-Wenshui area and the Fenyang area,the Taigu area and the Jiexiu-Pingyao area.The paleoearthquake data obtained in recent years in Taiyuan basin is analysed,with real-time probability model,the quantitative assessment of earthquake potential is carried out for above each section.The probability of earthquake occurrence in the Taiyuan-Wenshui area,the Taigu area in the next 50 years are 7.1%,15%,in the next 100 years are 13.9%,27.8%,while the Fenyan... |
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| Keywords: | Taiyuan basin active fault seismic potential seismotectonics real-time probability model |
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