| 云县台倾斜观测资料地震前兆分析与研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 何应文,罗钧,杨建文,杞应平.云县台倾斜观测资料地震前兆分析与研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2019,39(9):971-976. |
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| 作者姓名： | 何应文 罗钧 杨建文 杞应平 |
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| 作者单位： | 云南省地震局云县地震台,云南省临沧市云县草皮路98号,675803;中国地震局地震预测研究所,北京市复兴路63号,100036;云南省地震局形变测量中心,昆明市知春路249号,650041;云南省双江县水利局,云南省临沧市双江县北回归大道30号,677300 |
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| 基金项目： | 云南省地震局青年地震科学基金;云南省地震局青年地震科学基金;中国地震局三结合课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 收集整理云县台水管倾斜观测资料，滤除固体潮固定频率成分，剔除降雨干扰，构建月降水量和月倾斜增量的线性方程，并求取实际测值与理论值的残差。结果表明，倾斜观测两分量异常变化的开始或结束时间对台站周边500 km范围内地震发生时间有一定的指示意义，当残差值大于1倍均方差时，异常开始后1～6个月内，周边200 km范围内会有5级以上地震发生，500 km范围内有6级以上地震发生。预报效能检验结果显示，该方法对云南地区MS≥5.0地震具有较好的映震效果，可为该地区中短临地震趋势分析提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | DSQ型水管倾斜仪 固定频率 降雨干扰 滤除 预报效能 |
Analysis and Research on Earthquake Precursors of Crustal Inclination Observation Data at Yunxian Station |
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| HE Yingwen,LUO Jun,YANG Jianwen,QI Yingping.Analysis and Research on Earthquake Precursors of Crustal Inclination Observation Data at Yunxian Station[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2019,39(9):971-976. |
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| Authors: | HE Yingwen LUO Jun YANG Jianwen QI Yingping |
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| Abstract: | We collect and sort observation data of water pipe inclination at Yunxian station and filter out the fixed frequency component of solid tide. We then eliminate the rain interference, construct a linear equation of monthly precipitation and monthly tilt increment, thus obtaining the residual error between the actual measured value and the theoretical value. The results show that the starting or ending time of the two-component anomalous change in the tilt observation is of certain significance to the time of future earthquakes, within 500 km around the station. In particular, when the residual quantity is greater than 1 times, the mean residual quantity anomaly starts within one to six months, earthquakes of magnitude 5 or more will occur within the range of 200 km from the station, and earthquakes of magnitude 6 or more will occur within the range of 500 km from the station. The results of the forecast efficiency test show that the method has good earthquake reflection effect on earthquakes of magnitude 5 or more in Yunnan region, and can provide a quantitative criterion for the analysis of medium-short impending earthquake trends in this area. |
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| Keywords: | DSQ tiltmeter fixed-frequency rainfall disturbance filtering forecasting efficiency |
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