| 中国海洋渔业人力资源结构的灰色分析及其预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈新军,周应祺.中国海洋渔业人力资源结构的灰色分析及其预测[J].广东海洋大学学报,2001,21(1):22-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈新军 周应祺 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京农业大学土地管理学院;上海水产大学海洋学院,
2. 上海水产大学海洋学院, |
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| 摘 要： | 用灰色关联和灰色预测的方法，对我国沿海省市海洋渔业人力资源的结构和现状进行了分析，并对2000～2005年的人力资源发展状况进行了预测。结果认为，对海洋渔业劳动力影响最大的因素是海洋捕捞专业的劳动力，其次是海洋兼业劳动力，再次是海洋养殖和后勤专业的劳动力，这一人力资源的组成结构对可持续渔业的发展要求不尽合理。通过分别建立灰色模型GM（1，1），预测到2000～2005年从事海洋渔业的劳动力人数将达到291.9～343.8万人，海洋捕捞的劳动力人数为128.5～149.2万人，海洋养殖的劳动力人数为54.3～77.9万人，海洋后勤的劳动力人数为29.1～35.4万人，海洋兼业的劳动力人数为81.3～87.9万人。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋渔业 人力资源 灰色关联 灰色预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-（2001）01-0022-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年5月20日 |
Analysis and Forecast of
Manpower Resources in Chinese Marine Fisheries by Using Grey Theory |
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| Chen Xinjun,Zhou Yingqi.Analysis and Forecast of
Manpower Resources in Chinese Marine Fisheries by Using Grey Theory[J].Journal of Zhanjiang Ocean University,2001,21(1):22-29. |
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| Authors: | Chen Xinjun Zhou Yingqi |
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| Institution: | Chen Xinjun 1,2 Zhou Yingqi 2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on Grey theory and the data from 1990 to 1998, the paper analyzed the structure of manpower resources in Chinese marine fishery, and forecast their development during 2000 and 2005. The results indicated that the greatest factor affecting manpower resources of Chinese marine fishery comes from marine fishing, the following factors are from part time labourers, marine aquaculture and rear services respectively. This current structure is improper for sustainable fishery. Through building Grey model GM(1,1), the paper also forecast that the population's number of marine fishery will attain 2 919 to 3 438 thousands during 2000 and 2005, the population of marine fishing, marine aquaculture, rear services and part time fishermen will be from 1 285 to 1 492 thousand, from 543 to 779 thousand, from 291 to 354 thousand and from 813 to 879 thousand respectively. |
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| Keywords: | Marine fishery Manpower resources Grey relationship Grey forecast |
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