| THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING |
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| 引用本文： | 陈家其,施能.THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THE CASE OF GLOBAL WARMING[J].中国地理科学,1996,6(2):145-154. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈家其 施能 |
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| 作者单位： | Chen Jiaqi(Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology，the Chinese Academy of Sciences，Nanjing 210008，PRC)Shi Neng(Nanjing Institute of Meteorology，Nanjing 210044，PRC) |
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| 摘 要： | ＴＨＥ ＰＲＥＬＩＭＩＮＡＲＹ ＳＴＵＤＹ ＯＮ ＰＯＳＳＩＢＬＥ ＳＣＥＮＡＲＩＯＳ ＯＦ ＦＬＯＯＤ ＡＮＤ ＤＲＯＵＧＨＴ ＩＮ ＣＨＩＮＡ ＩＮ ＴＨＥ ＣＡＳＥ ＯＦ ＧＬＯＢＡＬ ＷＡＲＭＩＮＧ ＣｈｅｎＪｉａｑｉ（陈家其）（Ｎａｎｊｉｎ...
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| 收稿时间： | 15 January 1996 |
The preliminary study on possible scenarios of flood and drought in china in the case of global warming |
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| Jiaqi Chen,Neng Shi.The preliminary study on possible scenarios of flood and drought in china in the case of global warming[J].Chinese Geographical Science,1996,6(2):145-154. |
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| Authors: | Jiaqi Chen Neng Shi |
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| Institution: | (1) Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 210008 Nanjing, PRC;(2) Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 210044 Nanjing, PRC |
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| Abstract: | According to Prof. Zhu Kezhen’s (Chu K.C.) historical climatic division, the last 500 years in China can be divided into several
alternately cold and warm periods. The periods of 1470 – 1520, 1620 – 1720, 1840 – 1890 had cold winters, while those of 1550
– 1600, 1770 – 1830 had warm winters. Based on such division, in four kinds of periods, i.e. cold, warm, cold-warm, and warm-cold
(transition period), the differences between flood/drought degree in 120 stations in China and average of flood/drought degree
in the last 500 years have been calculated. Positive anomaly indicates drought-prone area, while negative anomaly indicates
flood-prone area. This historical experience provides a back-ground to analyze the possible scenarios in the case of global
warming in the future. The final results suggest that in the case of global warming the hazards of flood probably increase
in many parts of China, such as southeast coast area, southwest, northwest, some parts of northeast and inner Mongolia while
the hazards of drought probably decrease in the North China Plain, the middle reaches of the Huanghe River and its southern
adjacent area. This distribution is basically consistent with that of precipitation in warming periods in this century and
that resulted from climatic model in the case of CO2 doubling. |
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| Keywords: | climatic warming hazards of flood and drought hazard forecast |
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