| 基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 许晓丽,熊永清.基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究[J].天文学报,2019,60(4):26-38. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许晓丽 熊永清 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国科学院紫金山天文台;中国科学院空间目标与碎片观测重点实验室;中国科学院大学 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(11473074)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.
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| 关 键 词： | 天体力学 星历 方法: 数据分析 方法: 统计 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019/1/16 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2019/3/27 0:00:00 |
Study on Orbit Prediction Error of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE |
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| XU Xiao-li and XIONG Yong-qing.Study on Orbit Prediction Error of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE[J].Acta Astronomica Sinica,2019,60(4):26-38. |
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| Authors: | XU Xiao-li and XIONG Yong-qing |
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| Institution: | Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210034;Key Laboratory of Space Object and Debris Observation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210034;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 and Purple Mountain Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210034;Key Laboratory of Space Object and Debris Observation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210034 |
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| Abstract: | Two line element (TLE) released by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information of accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application in TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate orbital error data, based on the historical TLE from the Space-Track website and SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of each space object''s orbit prediction error variation are given, and the characteristics of error evolution in different orbits are further discussed. The mean analysis models of orbit prediction error evolution with time for four orbit types of targets are given, which provides a valuable reference for expanding the application of TLE data. |
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| Keywords: | celestial mechanics catalogs methods: data analysis methods: statistical |
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