共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 109 毫秒
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本文在对山西省中心城市等级体系和功能进行重构的基础上，根据城市－区域、城市－城市作用的“场强”分析，对山西省城市经济区作了初步划定，以期为划分山西省城市经济区提供依据。 相似文献
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大庄高速公路沿线经济带开发与布局探讨 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
从大庄高速公路开通给沿线区域带来的契机入手，阐明了高速公路的开通对沿线区域经济发展的软、硬环境的变化，继而分析了大庄高速公路沿线区域的优势及限制因素，对经济带开发的总体思路及基本原则进行阐述，最后对经济带的产业发展及布局规划进行了初步探讨。 相似文献
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通过2002—2015年的投入产出表以及投入产出延长表综合分析山西省产业发展状况，根据山西省的产业发展特征，将投入产出表中的42个行业进行了归并，运用投入产出指标对山西的产业发展状况进行了跟踪描述并采用扩散感应系数以及扩散能力系数跟踪经济发展中关键产业的变化规律，采用熵指数测算山西省的产业多元化程度，定量跟踪和评价山西产业多元化发展进程，同时运用社会网络研究方法，构建山西省投入产出关联图，直观地考察山西省的产业关联及产业发展集合。结果显示：山西省2002—2015年产业多元化进程受阻，2015年形成了两个重要的产业集合，一个是以煤炭资源业为中心，一个以建筑业为中心。 相似文献
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以联网收费系统为核心的高速公路新基建工程，推动了高速公路智慧化发展，也为交通流的时空表征提供了更高精度的数字底图。论文基于联网收费系统记录的交通流大数据，利用大数据挖掘、地理空间分析等方法，多尺度、多类型刻画广东省高速公路交通流时空分布格局，并通过岭回归方法探索影响交通流的主要因素。结果表明：(1)广东省高速公路机动车小型化、轻量化特征显著。高速公路旅客出行对小汽车的依赖性较强，巴士公共交通的出行分担率不高；货运结构中以轻型货车占据主导。空间分布上看，广东省高速公路交通流呈空间非均衡分布特征，交通流密集路段集中在珠三角城市群，以广州环城高速、广州绕城高速为核心“双环”，沿主要国家级高速公路向外围呈放射状扩散。(2)广东省高速公路交通流随时间变化呈“驼峰曲线”，其“双高峰”分布在上午9:00和下午17:00。小汽车对时间变化的敏感度最高；轻型至重型3类货车，载货规模越大，日内车流量越为平稳，对时间的敏感性及变化响应最弱。(3)岭回归结果显示，广东省高速公路交通流主要受机动车保有量、社会消费水平和服务业发展等影响。研究有助于拓展高速公路数字化新基建系统在地理学领域的应用，对于深化交通空间活... 相似文献
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分析形成高速公路客流的直接腹地和间接腹地等基本条件，探讨了高速公路客运站设置与铁路枢纽，以及公路客运和铁路客运间的分流关系，建议客运管理部门从数量、质量、效益等方面协调运营部门与旅客间的对立统一关系，达到增强高速公路客运空间竞争能力的目标。 相似文献
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长期以来，包括高速公路在内的交通基础设施建设被认为是缓解区域发展不平衡不充分的重要措施，但现有研究对高速公路的经济效应仍存在一定分歧，有些学者认为高速公路对促进边缘地区经济发展、缩小区域经济差异具有正向、积极的作用，也有些学者持相反观点，近年来还有部分学者提出高速公路的经济效应存在阶段性差异，如“倒U型”等。在此背景下，本文聚焦城市群的边缘地区，以日本东京湾区为研究对象，重点关注其高速公路建设收尾阶段的经济效应，采用考虑异质性的交错双重差分模型研究2012—2020年高速公路开通对边缘地区人均收入水平的影响，同时使用中介效应模型分析其作用机制。研究表明：(1)高速公路开通对边缘地区人均收入的动态效应为负。(2)高速公路开通导致边缘地区人口持续流失，土地价格、制造业及批发业所受影响不显著甚至为负。(3)根据中介效应模型实证结果，东京湾区当前扩散效应疲软而极化效应强劲，高速公路的开通未能有效提升边缘地区人均收入水平。结合东京湾区近70年的高速公路建设历史以及相关研究，本文认为高速公路建设对边缘地区人均收入水平的作用存在“窗口期”，边缘地区应根据所处城市群实际情况以及自身条件适时调整发展策略... 相似文献
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着眼于生态脆弱区生态、资源、经济协调发展时空变化，基于协调发展相关理论，构建生态、资源、经济协调发展评价体系，利用耦合协调模型对山西省生态脆弱区协调发展水平变化格局进行研究。结果表明：（1）从子系统综合发展指数来看，山西省生态脆弱区资源系统综合发展指数稍有下降，经济系统综合发展指数稍有上升；生态系统保持着相对较高的发展水平，且发展态势良好。（2）从协调发展度来看，山西省生态脆弱区生态、资源、经济协调发展水平整体上有所提升，以基本协调区域为主，后期比较协调区域开始出现，但并未形成大范围覆盖。（3）政策牵引成为山西省生态脆弱区生态、资源、经济协调发展的主要驱动力。最后从政策驱动的角度对山西省生态脆弱区协调发展提出针对性建议。 相似文献
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The southeastern United States is routinely hit by tropical cyclones (TC). As TC track inland and dissipate their inland impacts can be substantial. This study examined the spatial patterns of societal impacts associated with tornadoes and high winds with 31 inland-moving TC that made landfall from 1985 to 2008. Hourly weather information was collected from all available first-order weather stations affected by each storm, as well as tropical cyclone preliminary reports issued from the National Hurricane Center. Societal impacts were identified through selected newspapers across the region and the National Climatic Data Center’s Storm Data. Geographic Information System (GIS) software was employed to make geometric measurements of the distance and direction of the impacts relative to storm center. From these measurements, the spatial distribution of the societal and meteorological impacts was plotted relative to the track (e.g., left vs. right) and location (forward vs. rear sector) of the cyclone center. Various tropical cyclone attributes, including size, strength, and forward speed of movement were then related to the occurrence of different impacts and their location relative to the cyclone track. The majority of tropical cyclone tornado and high wind impacts occur in the right-forward sector of the tropical cyclone. However, many TC produce impacts that occur in other sectors far from the center of circulation. These abnormalities are associated in many cases with interactions between the tropical cyclone circulation, topography, peripheral dry air, and extratropical synoptic weather features. 相似文献
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利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和MICAPS实况数据,对广东惠州市2010年冬末春初的2次较严重的、持续时间较长的“回南天”天气过程进行总结分析.结果显示:发生“回南天”的前期一般出现较长时间的低温阴雨天气,使得地面及墙面等物体表面温度较低,空气湿度较大; “回南天”期间,500 hPa北支系统偏北,冷空气难以南下,南支波动活跃,华南地区主要处于南支槽前,其前强盛的西南暖湿气流为“回南天”带来了充足的水汽条件,底层地面冷高压北收,西南低槽不断更替发展,华南地区主要处于地面低压槽前侧,且地面风速较小,对流层低层有较强的逆温层存在. 相似文献
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Stochastic modeling of daily precipitation in China 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6
1IntroductionWeather Generator (WG) is a stochastic model that can be used to simulate daily weather based on parameters determined by historic records. Precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, radiation and more can all be simulated by WG. Recently WG has gained renewed attention and has been extensively applied in studying impacts of climate change on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. Specifically, it has been used in the following ways. 1) WG … 相似文献
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A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developed based on the framework of a 'Richardson-type' weather generator that is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, four parameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representing regional differences are discussed. Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results are satisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator. 相似文献
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中国天气发生器的降水模拟 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developed based on the framework of a ‘Richardson-type‘ weather generator that is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, four parameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representing regional differences are discussed.Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results are satisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator. 相似文献
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中国天气发生器的降水模拟 总被引：27，自引：0，他引：27
天气发生器是气候影响评价研究的重要工具,在气候变化、地球生态系统及极端气候事件发生的风险分析等方面有着广泛的应用。为了建立一个适用于中国广大地区的天气发生器,需要对各种模拟模型及其参数的估计进行深入的研究。其中降水的模拟及其参数的估计是关键,因为气温、辐射等其他气候要素的模拟依赖于降水的发生。本文重点介绍了常用的随机降水模拟模型：两状态一阶马尔科夫链和两参数GAMMA分布。根据中国672个气象站点1961~2000年的逐日降水资料,计算了降水转移概率P (WD)、P (WW) 及GAMMA分布参数ALPHA和BETA,并分析了4个参数在中国各地的空间分布特征与不同地区各参数的季节分布特征。最后根据各地不同月份计算的四个降水模拟参数对中国各地的逐日降水进行模拟,并利用1971~2000年的实测数据对30年模拟结果在统计意义上进行了检验,模拟结果较好。 相似文献
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全球气候变化导致全球海洋酸化、冰雪融化、气温持续升高、极端天气发生频率增多,进而对社会经济系统产生深远影响。随着气候变化的加剧,抵抗气候风险能力较强的工业领域也遭受了严重的损失。目前,工业领域的脆弱性不断加深,工业经济损失的绝对量也在不断增长,定量评估工业经济损失是制定应对气候变化政策的重要依据,通过梳理当前的研究进展,可以为工业经济的评估提供思路和方法。因此,本文对工业领域受气候变化影响的正负面效应进行概述,发现不同工业部门受到气候变化的影响略有不同,部分区域的采矿业对气温升高的响应为正向,但风暴、干旱以及降雨会破坏采矿业的正常生产经营活动;制造业大多是室内作业,抵抗极端气候的能力相对较强,部分产业反应机制复杂;建筑业的损失多集中在间接损失,通过电力成本提高等反馈;电力、热力及水的生产和供应业在遭受极端气候时会出现传输供应损失,且作为碳排放最大的行业,其减排成本短期内会影响该部门的经济增长。工业部门为了应对气候变化付出了较大的适应和减缓成本,因此通过模型量化评估工业经济的损失,有利于制定合理的政策,保证工业经济平稳有序的增长。 相似文献
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This study examines how extreme weather influences regional inequality and polarization within Mozambique in the context of on-going economic shocks. Utilizing satellite-based estimates of rainfall spatially analyzed within a GIS, we establish a 16-year rainfall climatology and calculate monthly rainfall anomalies for 665 villages. We approximate storm-total rainfall from all tropical cyclones entering the Mozambique Channel, as well as the extent of damaging winds for those making landfall, between 2005 and 2008. We group villages according to tropical cyclone impacts and use hierarchical cluster analysis to group the remaining villages according to shared patterns of monthly rainfall anomalies. Using economic data from the 2005 and 2008 National Agricultural Surveys of Mozambique, we relate weather patterns associated with near normal rainfall, tropical cyclones, flooding, and drought to changes in inequality and polarization by conducting decomposition analyses of the Gini index and Duclos-Esteban-Ray (DER) polarization index. Our findings mainly correspond to the generally accepted view that weather shocks exacerbate existing income and power disparities within societies. However, in some cases we find evidence that inequality and polarization can decline in the aftermath of an extreme event, and increase even where the weather is relatively good. By identifying varying effects of extreme events on inequality and polarization at subnational level, our study enables a more detailed understanding of weather-related effects on socio-economic outcomes in rural societies rapidly integrating into the global economy. 相似文献
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1IntroductionTheconventionalassessmentSonthepossibleimPactsofclilnateAngehaveahrpothesisofkeepingclimaticvariabilityinaccordtviththatofpresentclimateduetolackofavailableinformationchangesinclimaticvariabiiltyFixedtemperaturechangeandfixedprecipitationadjustingfactorsassumedorderivedffomGCMs'shoulahonareaddedtotheobserveddailytemperatUrormulhpliedwithhiStoricaldailypreeipitahonrespechvelyinthesestUdiest11.Alti1oughthereareanUInerofapparentdeficienciesinGCMs,includinglowertemporalandspatia… 相似文献
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TORBJÖRN GUSTAVSSON JÖRGEN BOGREN 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2007,89(4):263-271
The Swedish Road Weather Information System is a tool for road winter maintenance giving warnings about risk of slipperiness and severe weather conditions. The system is based on climatological research at the University of Göteborg and was initiated by Professor Sven Lindqvist during the 1970s. Knowledge about micro‐and local climate variations is crucial when it comes to forecasting and giving warnings about different kinds of weather‐related traffic disturbances. The progress of climatological research has made it possible to increase the use of road weather data into different applications. Future development will be focused upon development of the road weather information system towards a user‐friendly maintenance decision support system which will enhance the benefits of the road weather information system. 相似文献