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1.
Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Ruhr is an “old acquaintance” in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth. 相似文献
2.
During the last six decades, Kuwait has experienced rapid and unprecedented population growth with only a small increase in the urban areas. The alarming rise in urban density in Kuwait has caused issues for the residents' lifestyles, the economy and the environment. These issues have been aggravated by urban planning which perpetuated a city‐centric urban form without modelling the impacts of current patterns of urban growth. A spatial model using Agent Based Modelling (ABM) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is proposed to model disaggregate future changes in land‐use patterns given forecast population estimates and planning policies. The two main impacts considered are housing shortage and traffic congestion, as these are the two most significant social impacts for Kuwaitis. This article discusses the design methodology and parameterization of the ABM and the agent groups. It characterizes urban growth by rules for different citizen groups, historical growth patterns and the influence of decision‐makers. The model is validated against data for the period 1995‐2015 and simulations run to 2050; the results predict that continued city‐centric growth will aggravate the problems, with more than 50% increase in housing shortage and congestion unless the government intervenes to rectify the situation. 相似文献
3.
基于GIS的中国南方传统聚落景观保护管理信息系统初步研究 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
中国南方广大地域范围内分布着为数众多的传统聚落,它们历经沧桑而幸存至今,成为聚落文化景观的“活化石”,包含着丰富的历史文化信息,是一笔宝贵的历史遗产。但在城市化的进程中,它们面临着被损毁的厄运,因此加强对这些传统聚落的保护研究就显得十分必要。引进G IS技术来进行传统聚落景观管理是一个值得探索的方向;以南方地区208个经典古镇作为研究样本,初步建立我国南方传统聚落景观保护管理信息系统,就是这种探索的有益尝试。通过对该系统的目标与意义、结构与功能、技术路线的选择、后续功能的构想等方面的阐述,证实了应用G IS技术可以实现传统聚落景观的多源数据集成与管理;指出了民居建筑数据库作为文化遗产数字化的一个方向,对文化传承和历史记忆的延续具有不可替代的作用。 相似文献
4.
《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(1):30-47
Between 1887 and 1888, Henry L. Marindin, Assistant Topographer of the U.S. Coast & Geodetic Survey, conducted a detailed survey of the outer shores of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, providing an important base line for future comparisons, “which will be of value to geologists and others who study the changes in the coast-line”. In 2007, the Land-Sea Interaction Program of the Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies began a project to resurvey Marindin's profiles and cross-sections to quantify changes to landforms and the nearshore environment that have occurred over the past century for use in estimating future conditions in the context of climate change and sea level rise. In order to facilitate reliable, quantitative shoreline comparisons, the translation of historical spatial data to contemporary horizontal (e.g., NAD83) and vertical (e.g., NAVD88) reference systems is paramount. With historical transects translated to NAD83 using methods developed as part of a previous study, the goal of this work is to develop an accurate estimate of the relationship between Marindin's elevation data and NAVD88. Recognizing that the physical and social landscape had changed significantly over the past 120+ years, a historical base map was prepared to assist with the recovery of 19th century benchmarks. Using the base map, five Coast survey benchmarks were recovered and resurveyed. Based on the results of this work, the local mean sea level datum of Marindin's survey is estimated to be 1.13 feet (0.34 meters) below the NAVD88 plane of reference. 相似文献
5.
SPOT卫星影像居民地信息自动提取的决策树方法研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以南京市江宁县为研究区域，首先分析了该区域居民地的影像特征，然后研究了居民地及其背景地物在SPOT—4(Ⅺ)卫星影像4个波段上的光谱特征，并由此探讨了它们在光谱特征上的可分性。研究发现，除道路在光谱特征上与居民地差异不大而难以完全分开外，其它背影地物均可以依据各波段亮度值的大小关系或适当的阈值与居民地分开。但道路和居民地在形状上存在明显差异，因此可以利用形状指数的差异加以去除。最后分析建立了基于光谱特征和形状特征的简单决策树模型，对研究区域居民地信息进行了提取并对结果进行了精度评价。结果表明，该方法的总体 相似文献
6.
Isa Baud Monika Kuffer Karin Pfeffer Richard Sliuzas Sadasivam Karuppannan 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010
Analyzing the heterogeneity in metropolitan areas of India utilizing remote sensing data can help to identify more precise patterns of sub-standard residential areas. Earlier work analyzing inequalities in Indian cities employed a constructed index of multiple deprivations (IMDs) utilizing data from the Census of India 2001 (http://censusindia.gov.in). While that index, described in an earlier paper, provided a first approach to identify heterogeneity at the citywide scale, it neither provided information on spatial variations within the geographical boundaries of the Census database, nor about physical characteristics, such as green spaces and the variation in housing density and quality. In this article, we analyze whether different types of sub-standard residential areas can be identified through remote sensing data, combined, where relevant, with ground-truthing and local knowledge. The specific questions address: (1) the extent to which types of residential sub-standard areas can be drawn from remote sensing data, based on patterns of green space, structure of layout, density of built-up areas, size of buildings and other site characteristics; (2) the spatial diversity of these residential types for selected electoral wards; and (3) the correlation between different types of sub-standard residential areas and the results of the index of multiple deprivations utilized at electoral ward level found previously. 相似文献
7.
Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth’s land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective. 相似文献
8.
以湖南省郴州市北湖区为研究区,采用GIS技术、景观生态学原理和定量分析方法,研究了湘南丘陵区农村居民点用地总量、规模、空间形态、空间分布等景观格局变化特征,并对2004年和2009年2个时段不同海拔高度农村居民点景观格局动态变化进行了分析。结果表明:农村居民点在地形低缓处集聚;从2004年到2009年,北湖区农村居民点用地增加了168.7hm2;5年来丘陵区农村居民点平均规模增长了5.57%;在空间形态上,斑块分维数和形状指数2009年比2004年分别增加了0.031、0.189,农村居民点越来越破碎;在空间分布上,斑块间邻近距离不断缩短,平均最邻近距离缩短了13.29%,呈现出集中、连片分布的特点。 相似文献
9.
Incorporating GIS data into an agent-based model to support planning policy making for the development of creative industries 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper presents an extension to the agent-based model “Creative Industries Development–Urban Spatial Structure Transformation” by incorporating GIS data. Three agent classes, creative firms, creative workers and urban government, are considered in the model, and the spatial environment represents a set of GIS data layers (i.e. road network, key housing areas, land use). With the goal to facilitate urban policy makers to draw up policies locally and optimise the land use assignment in order to support the development of creative industries, the improved model exhibited its capacity to assist the policy makers conducting experiments and simulating different policy scenarios to see the corresponding dynamics of the spatial distributions of creative firms and creative workers across time within a city/district. The spatiotemporal graphs and maps record the simulation results and can be used as a reference by the policy makers to adjust land use plans adaptively at different stages of the creative industries’ development process. 相似文献
10.
Noa Ohana-Levi Tarin Paz-Kagan Natalya Panov Aviva Peeters Asaf Tsoar 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(3):362-387
Land-use changes as a result of residential development often lead to degradation and alter vegetation cover (VC). Although these are worldwide phenomena, sufficient knowledge about anthropogenic effects caused by various populated areas in dryland ecosystems is lacking. This study explored anthropogenic development in rural areas and its effects on the conservation of protected areas in drylands, focusing on the change in VC, the reasons, extent, and the drivers of change. We propose a novel framework for exploring VC change (VCC) as a function of environmental and human-driven factors including different types of populated areas in drylands. As a case study, we used a 30-year time series of Landsat satellite images over the arid region of Israel to analyze spatiotemporal VCC. The temporal analysis involved the Contextual Mann-Kendall significance test and spatial analysis to model clustering of VCC. A Gradient Boosted Regression machine learning algorithm was applied to study the relative influence of environmental and human-driven factors on VCC. In addition, we used ANOVA to examine differences between the effects of three types of populated areas on the spatiotemporal trends of VC. The results show that the most influential environmental variable on VCC was elevation (relative contribution of 17%), followed by slope (14.8%) and distance from populated areas (14.6%). Moreover, different types of populated areas affected VC differently with varying distances from residential centroids. The nature reserves increased VC positively and significantly, while livestock settlements had a negative effect. Change in vegetation was mostly confined to the stream network and occurred in lower elevations. The study demonstrates how different land-use practices alter the landscape in terms of VC and differ in their extents, patterns, and effects. With the expected growth in population and residential development worldwide, the proposed framework may assist conservation managements and policy makers in minimizing environmental degradation in drylands. 相似文献
11.
针对传统住宅价格模型不足,根据地学区位理论,将区域经济因素引入特征价格模型,提出了基于区域特征的城市住宅价格评估模型.依托郑州市数字房产数据库,选取2007～2010年新建商品房买卖合同数据,利展GIS技术获取样本的位置、距离信息,采用多元线性回归方法对该模型进行了验证.结果表明住宅价格与区域经济、位置特征、邻里特征、... 相似文献
12.
基于地理加权模型的农村居民点空间格局及影响因子分析——以湖北省麻城市为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以湖北省麻城市2009年和2015年农村居民点为研究对象,采用区位指数和核密度测算法对农村居民点空间分布形态进行分析,运用传统最小二乘法和地理加权模型从全域和局部角度分析自然地貌、社会经济、生态限制等因素影响农村居民点空间演变的作用机制。研究得出:麻城市2009—2015年农村居民点用地面积增长率达6.92%,斑块主要以分散式外延扩张为主,空间结构演变总体上呈现沿沪汉蓉快速铁路和武麻公路向四周扩散的连续分布特征。从全域上看,农村居民点分布格局与坡度、公路、建制镇、风景名胜区、河流呈空间负相关关系;从局部影响程度来看,最大正向影响因子为人均收入和高程,负向影响因子主要是坡度和河流,其他影响因子随地理位置变化正负向影响均存在。 相似文献
13.
近年来,我国公路对自然生态环境的影响随着通车里程的增加而日益显著。在公路选线的过程中,全面分析拟建公路走廊带内景观破碎度的空间分异特征,可有效减少公路修建对生态环境的不利影响。本文利用遥感分类技术和GIS(地理信息系统)空间分析方法,以湖南长湘公路走廊带某段土地斑块和景观分类为基础,借助斑块密度指数、最大斑块指数和相似邻近比指数,在斑块类型水平和景观水平两个层面全面分析公路走廊带内自然林地景观、农业景观和城乡建设景观破碎度的空间分异特征。结果表明:长湘公路走廊带内景观破碎度高的地区主要分布在大型斑块边缘、平原地区以及公路沿线;自然林地景观和农业景观的破碎度较低,城乡建设景观的破碎度较高;城乡建设景观的破碎度与公路相关性最强,表现出顺应公路走向的条带状蔓延特征。该研究成果可为公路选线方案的制订和完善提供环境影响方面的参考。 相似文献
14.
Christina Corbane Pesaresi Martino Politis Panagiotis Florczyk J. Aneta Melchiorri Michele Freire Sergio 《International Journal of Digital Earth》2020,13(1):101-118
ABSTRACTThe presence of green spaces within city centres has been recognized as a valuable component of the city landscape. Vegetation provides a variety of benefits including energy saving, improved air quality, reduced noise pollution, decreased ambient temperature and psychological restoration. Evidence also shows that the amount of vegetation, known as ‘greenness’, in densely populated areas, can also be an indicator of the relative wealth of a neighbourhood. The ‘grey-green divide’, the contrast between built-up areas with a dominant grey colour and green spaces, is taken as a proxy indicator of sustainable management of cities and planning of urban growth. Consistent and continuous assessment of greenness in cities is therefore essential for monitoring progress towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 11. The availability of multi-temporal greenness information from Landsat data archives together with data derived from the city centres database of the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) initiative, offers a unique perspective to quantify and analyse changes in greenness across 10,323 urban centres all around the globe. In this research, we assess differences between greenness within and outside the built-up area for all the urban centres described by the city centres database of the GHSL. We also analyse changes in the amount of green space over time considering changes in the built-up areas in the periods 1990, 2000 and 2014. The results show an overall trend of increased greenness between 1990 and 2014 in most cities. The effect of greening is observed also for most of the 32 world megacities. We conclude that using simple yet effective approaches exploiting open and free global data it is possible to provide quantitative information on the greenness of cities and its changes over time. This information is of direct interest for urban planners and decision-makers to mitigate urban related environmental and social impacts. 相似文献
15.
While cellular automata have become popular tools for modeling land‐use changes, there is a lack of studies reporting their application at very fine spatial resolutions (e.g. 5 m resolution). Traditional cell‐based CA do not generate reliable results at such resolutions because single cells might only represent components of land‐use entities (i.e. houses or parks in urban residential areas), while recently proposed entity‐based CA models usually ignore the internal heterogeneity of the entities. This article describes a patch‐based CA model designed to deal with this problem by integrating cell and object concepts. A patch is defined as a collection of adjacent cells that might have different attributes, but that represent a single land‐use entity. In this model, a transition probability map was calculated at each cell location for each land‐use transition using a weight of evidence method; then, land‐use changes were simulated by employing a patch‐based procedure based on the probability maps. This CA model, along with a traditional cell‐based model were tested in the eastern part of the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada, an area that is under considerable pressure for land development due to its proximity to the fast growing city of Calgary. The simulation results for the two models were compared to historical data using visual comparison, Ksimulation indices, and landscape metrics. The results reveal that the patch‐based CA model generates more compact and realistic land‐use patterns than the traditional cell‐based CA. The Ksimulation values indicate that the land‐use maps obtained with the patch‐based CA are in higher agreement with the historical data than those created by the cell‐based model, particularly regarding the location of change. The landscape metrics reveal that the patch‐based model is able to adequately capture the land‐use dynamics as observed in the historical data, while the cell‐based CA is not able to provide a similar interpretation. The patch‐based approach proposed in this study appears to be a simple and valuable solution to take into account the internal heterogeneity of land‐use classes at fine spatial resolutions and simulate their transitions over time. 相似文献
16.
基于GIS的保障性住房选址的决策因素分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
保障性住房的合理选址关系到被保障人群的生活质量和社会发展的稳定性,其决策因素的分析对保障性住房选址有着重要建设性意义。本文根据我国保障性住房空间选址特点,从就业保障、居住分异、公共服务配套设施完善度、经济发展等角度分析影响其选址的决策因素,然后,运用多因素综合评价法,结合层次分析和熵权系数法,建立保障性住房选址合理性评价模型,并利用GIS空间分析平台,以武汉市百步亭社区为例进行实证研究。研究结果表明,百步亭社区作为保障性住房社区选址具有较高的合理性;所选决策因素能够较好地评价选址的合理性,为今后的保障房选址决策提供参考。 相似文献
17.
Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling approach for urban land-use and population density change: a BNAS model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Land-use change models grounded in complexity theory such as agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to examine evolving urban systems. The objective of this study is to develop a spatial model that simulates land-use change under the influence of human land-use choice behavior. This is achieved by integrating the key physical and social drivers of land-use change using Bayesian networks (BNs) coupled with agent-based modeling. The BNAS model, integrated Bayesian network–based agent system, presented in this study uses geographic information systems, ABMs, BNs, and influence diagram principles to model population change on an irregular spatial structure. The model is parameterized with historical data and then used to simulate 20 years of future population and land-use change for the City of Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation results identify feasible new urban areas for development around the main transportation corridors. The obtained new development areas and the projected population trajectories with the“what-if” scenario capabilities can provide insights into urban planners for better and more informed land-use policy or decision-making processes. 相似文献
18.
SPOT卫星影像居民地信息自动提取的决策树方法研究 总被引：49，自引：3，他引：49
以南京市江宁县为研究区域，首先分析了该区域居民地的影像特征，然后研究了居民地及其背景地物在SPOT—4(Ⅺ)卫星影像4个波段上的光谱特征，并由此探讨了它们在光谱特征上的可分性。研究发现，除道路在光谱特征上与居民地差异不大而难以完全分开外，其它背影地物均可以依据各波段亮度值的大小关系或适当的阈值与居民地分开。但道路和居民地在形状上存在明显差异，因此可以利用形状指数的差异加以去除。最后分析建立了基于光谱特征和形状特征的简单决策树模型，对研究区域居民地信息进行了提取并对结果进行了精度评价。结果表明，该方法的总体提取效果较好，特别是对于面积大于10000m^2的城镇和集村。其提取精度与通常的监督分类方法相比有了很大的提高，只是在水际交界处和道路两侧有误判现象。因此，利用该模型可以将背景地物类型复杂的江南地区的城镇和集村居民地自动提取出来，并且模型受时相影响较小，只是在域值大小上会存在一些差异。 相似文献
19.
Eric J.E. Molin Harmen Oppewal Harry J.P. Timmermans 《Journal of Geographical Systems》2002,4(4):343-358
In this paper, two approaches for measuring residential group preferences, based on the method of Hierarchical Information
Integration (HII), are compared. In particular, the hypothesis that group-based preference models estimated from integrated
HII experiments better predict group preferences than part individual-based group models estimated from classical HII experiments
is tested. To that effect, the models' ability to predict group preferences for new residential alternatives is compared in
a study of residential preferences of co-ops. Results indicate that integrated HII group experiments indeed result in better
predictions of residential preferences. 相似文献
20.
Residential location choice modeling is one of the substantial components of land use and transportation models. While numerous aggregated mathematical and statistical approaches have been developed to model the residence choice behavior of households, disaggregated approaches such as the agent‐based modeling have shown interesting capabilities. In this article, a novel agent‐based approach is developed to simulate the residential location choice of tenants in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Tenants are considered as agents who select their desired residential alternatives according to their characteristics and preferences for various criteria such as the rent, accessibility to different services and facilities, environmental pollution, and distance from their workplace and former residence. The choice set of agents is limited to their desired residential alternatives by applying a constrained NSGA‐II algorithm. Then, agents compete with each other to select their final residence among their alternatives. Results of the proposed approach are validated by comparing simulated and actual residences of a sample of tenants. Results show that the proposed approach is able to accurately simulate the residence of 59.3% of tenants at the traffic analysis zone level. 相似文献