共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
如何快速,有效地进行投保户洪涝灾害损失评估是保险行业急需解决的一个重要课题.从洪涝灾害的成灾机理出发,针对保险公司对具体受灾体理赔需求,提出了计算每个投保户洪灾损失率方法,建立基于遥感(RS)和地理信息系统(GIS)的城市财产保险洪涝灾害损失评估模型.建模时较全面地考虑了与投保物性质有关的承灾体易损度和与投保物所处环境有关的地基承载力等因素,并使用RS/GIS将其定量化提取.最后使用广东省深圳市洪灾数据进行模型检验.验证结果表明,模型对于各个投保户均能得到较好的精度. 相似文献
2.
Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process 总被引：7，自引：6，他引：1
Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the
business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life
and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies
employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents
a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical
assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal
for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints. 相似文献
3.
Salgado-G&#;lvez Mario A. Zuloaga Daniela Henao Sebastian Bernal Gabriel A. Cardona Omar-Dar&#;o 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city.
相似文献4.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez Daniela Zuloaga Sebastian Henao Gabriel A. Bernal Omar-Darío Cardona 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):5-24
A methodology for the development of fully probabilistic seismic risk assessments on water and sewage networks is presented in this paper together with a case study for the system of Manizales, Colombia. These kinds of assessments require the development of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, the consideration of local site effects, when relevant, the assembly of databases to identify and characterize the exposed elements and the development and assignment of vulnerability models for each type of component. For the case of Manizales, a high-resolution exposure database has been developed (element by element, segment by segment) based on the information and data provided by the owner and operator of the network, Aguas de Manizales. Losses due to earthquakes are obtained after convoluting the hazard and vulnerability inputs in a fully probabilistic manner, using the state-of-the-art methodologies incorporated in the CAPRA risk assessment module. Several risk metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, the loss exceedance probabilities for different time frames and the average annual loss are obtained for the system as a whole as well as disaggregated by component. In addition, repair rates for the pipelines were also calculated. The risk results obtained in this study have been useful for the company in designing and implementing expansion and maintenance plans that explicitly account for seismic risk mitigation issues, as well as to explore and negotiate financial protection alternatives by means of risk transfer and retention schemes, thus becoming a valuable input in the continuous development of good disaster risk management practices in this city. 相似文献
5.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
6.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of interconnected infrastructure: a case of Iranian high-pressure gas supply system 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
A. Golara 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):567-577
Seismic hazard maps are widely used for engineering design, land-use planning, and disaster mitigation. The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran with regard to the specification of Iranian high-pressure gas network is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the historical and new earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity, and seismic zone models in Iran. The map displays the probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration for the return period of 2,475 year (2 % probability in 50 years). The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of risk map, the estimation of insurance premiums, finding best paths for future pipelines, planning, and relocating lifeline facilities especially for interconnected infrastructures. 相似文献
7.
Jiazhen Peng Xiaojun Gene Shan Yang Gao Yohannes Kesete Rachel A. Davidson Linda K. Nozick Jamie Kruse 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):1043-1068
This paper introduces a new modeling framework to understand and improve regional natural disaster risk management in the USA, including the interactions among key stakeholders and between the two important risk management mechanisms of insurance and retrofit. The framework includes a stochastic programming optimization to represent insurer decisions, which interacts with a utility-based model of individual homeowners’ decisions to insure and/or retrofit. Reinsurer and government roles are represented as inputs, and the decision models are integrated with a detailed regional catastrophe loss estimation model. This modeling framework is applied to a full-scale, realistic case study for hurricane risk to residential buildings in Eastern North Carolina. Several alternative system configurations are considered that affect the incentives for adoption of alternative risk management methods. They include providing a government subsidy for insured homeowners to encourage retrofit, providing both a government subsidy and insurance rebate to reduce retrofit costs, and mandating insurance purchase with a cap on insurance premiums. For each configuration, outcomes are presented from the perspectives of all key stakeholders—primary insurer, homeowners (insured and uninsured, in high- and low-risk areas), reinsurers, and the government. Results suggest that it is possible to design policies in which all stakeholders can be better off simultaneously. Retrofit incentives for insured homeowners can be effective in linking and strengthening the benefits of retrofit and insurance. Mandatory insurance coupled with capped profit loading factors and possibly retrofit rebates from the insurer to the homeowner can also reduce overall system risk. 相似文献
8.
This study describes how risk-based risk control allocation models work. We begin by discussing the economic rationale for allocating risk control in a diversified organization such as an enterprise. For a probability model for risk control decision making under uncertainty and risk, we propose a model involving stochastic total loss amount constraints with respect to various tolerable default levels. Our main objective is to develop a method that will allow shaping of the risk associated with risk control outcomes. The direct and indirect losses caused by simulated disasters can be estimated using an engineering and financial analysis model. Based on this model, we can generate an exceeding probability curve and then calculate how much of the loss can be eliminated or transferred to other entities should funds be allocated to risk control. The optimal natural disaster risk control arrangement with a probabilistic formulation is explained in this paper. Results from the proposed formulations are compared in case studies. The model attempts to apply risk-based budget guidelines to risk reduction measurement within a portfolio-based risk framework. 相似文献
9.
A novel strategy to determine the insurance and risk control plan for natural disaster risk management 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
This study presents an extended framework for the analysis of economic effects of natural disaster risk management. It also attempts to define and evaluate the optimal insurance arrangements. A model, the economic utility constrained-maximization model, is proposed. The purpose of this study is to establish a strategy for determining an insurance and risk control plan in which consideration is given to balancing the economic effects (e.g., decrease in costs due to damage) by disaster mitigation. Furthermore, these values are compared with risk control actions for purposes of prioritization, to provide data to help evaluate the benefit of each risk control action. Disaster insurance policy premiums in contrast are based on actuarial data taken from situations in which risk control measures are not employed. This can make such contracts unfair to responsible enterprise managers who must take risk control measures. This represents an unfair aspect of insurance policies. Enterprise managers should be able to determine the optimum arrangement between natural disaster risk control and insurance given their budget limitations. The optimal strategies aim at the best applicability and balance between risk control and insurance capability for the enterprise manager. Risk control measures can generate several risk control options for enterprise managers. Premium discounts by insurers are given in this model. 相似文献
10.
Probabilistic earthquake risk assessment using CAPRA: application to the city of Barcelona, Spain 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Mabel C. Marulanda Martha L. Carreño Omar D. Cardona Mario G. Ordaz Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):59-84
The risk evaluation model CAPRA (Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment) is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for evaluating and communicating risk at various territorial levels. The model allows evaluating losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard risk analyses. In this article, the process of probabilistic seismic risk analysis is described, explaining the main features of the CAPRA modules of hazard, vulnerability and risk estimation applied to the city of Barcelona, Spain. In addition, according to the physical risk results and the information on the socioeconomic indicators of the city, this article presents the holistic evaluation of seismic risk, which is a valuable result to facilitate the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision making. 相似文献
11.
High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. 相似文献
12.
A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk.
This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding
(i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working
group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various
consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological,
hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic
models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process
of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures
that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster
chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the
basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage
was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on
the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood
risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision
support tool for flood management. 相似文献
13.
High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but
in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As
a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely
important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural
disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods,
droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much
damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable
risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy.
Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems,
disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public)
and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important
for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is
a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves
probabilistic constraints. 相似文献
14.
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries. 相似文献
15.
《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2013,8(1):57-68
Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas. 相似文献
16.
A quantitative risk analysis has been performed in a tourist area of Sicily (Italy) with the aim of assessing the rockfall risk along an important transportation corridor, crossing a geologically complex area and poor rock masses. The procedure followed herein is based on an event tree analysis, which was properly customized to take into account the peculiarity of the area and of the road path. Rock mass surveys, trajectory simulations and probabilistic models are proposed with the aim of calculating the probability related to possible scenarios in case of rockfalls. Achieved outcomes demonstrate that such procedure, resulting from a multifaceted study, is a reliable tool, which can be taken as reference to calibrate further risk models in comparable contexts of the world, where rockfall threaten communication routes. This would represent a helpful instrument to the scientific community and to local authorities dealing with one of the most troublesome natural phenomena affecting the public safety. 相似文献
17.
区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展 总被引：34，自引：1，他引：33
讨论了区域自然灾害风险的含义,指出了保险与灾害研究中对风险含义的不同理解,着重说明可能性风险概念,综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型,指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识,风险估算,风险评价三个环节,风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型,概率风险模型,可能性风险模型三个阶段,着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。 相似文献
18.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):391-400
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
19.
泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
泥石流是一种突发性山地灾害,至今尚缺乏准确有效的预报方法。减灾工程也只能对一定规模的泥石流起到防御作用。泥石流危险性分区在泥石流减灾中具有重要作用。以泥石流运动数值模拟为基础,以数值模拟获得的流速和流深等参量为分区指标的危险性分区是泥石流危险性分区研究的重点和发展方向。其中,泥石流危险性动量和动能分区充分反映了泥石流的破坏能力,可以提供更为精确的定量化的分区结果。该类分区方法在城镇等有重要危害对象的泥石流减灾中具有广泛的应用。不仅可以应用于泥石流危险区和安全区的划定、泥石流灾害预估、泥石流临灾预案制定、泥石流抢险救灾方案制定和泥石流灾情评估等,还可以应用到山区土地利用规划、山区城镇建设规划和财产保险评估等领域,并起到防灾和减灾的作用。 相似文献
20.
我国自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
减轻自然灾害是一项系统工程，它包括对自然灾害的监测、预报、评估、防灾、抗灾、救灾、恢复、教育、保险与综合管理。通过对我国自然灾害评估现状的分析，介绍了目前我国国家级、省级和城市级自然灾害评估中亟待解决的若干问题，认为由国家、地方、主管部门组织开展全国自然灾害区划、加强自然灾害综合预报、建立自然灾害与灾情预评估、灾害应急评估与灾情评定、灾害应急救助与救援管理系统、积极开展灾害保险与灾区恢复、灾害教育与宣传、实现科学化、现代化灾害管理、实现灾害信息共享、开展减灾效益评估及建立综合减灾系统等是我国目前自然灾害评估中亟待解决的问题。 相似文献