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1.
Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
相似文献2.
Balqis M. Rehan 《Natural Hazards》2018,91(3):1039-1057
Economic damage assessment for flood risk estimation is established in many countries, but attentions have been focused on macro- or meso-scale approaches and less on micro-scale approaches. Whilst the macro- or meso-scale approaches of flood damage assessment are suitable for regional- or national-oriented studies, micro-scale approaches are more suitable for cost–benefit analysis of engineered protection measures. Furthermore, there remains lack of systematic and automated approaches to estimate economic flood damage for multiple flood scenarios for the purpose of flood risk assessment. Studies on flood risk have also been driven by the assumption of stationary characteristic of flood hazard, hence the stationary-oriented vulnerability assessment. This study proposes a novel approach to assess vulnerability and flood risk and accounts for adaptability of the approach to nonstationary conditions of flood hazard. The approach is innovative in which an automated concurrent estimation of economic flood damage for a range of flood events on the basis of a micro-scale flood risk assessment is made possible. It accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of residential buildings of a community exposed to flood hazard. The feasibility of the methodology was tested using real historical flow records and spatial information of Teddington, London. Vulnerability curves and residual risk associated with a number of alternative extents of property-level protection adoptions are estimated by the application of the proposed methodology. It is found that the methodology has the capacity to provide valuable information on vulnerability and flood risk that can be integrated in a practical decision-making process for a reliable cost–benefit analysis of flood risk reduction options. 相似文献
3.
An integrated framework for disaster risk management is presented to cope with the risk of low-probability high-consequence
(LPHC) disasters in urban communities. Since the 2000 Tokai flood in Japan, there has been a shift in the management strategy
from disaster prevention with a presumed zero risk to disaster reduction with an acceptable risk. The framework consists of:
(i) integration of a different categories of risk reduction options in terms of structural and nonstructural measures, regulation
and market-oriented measures, (ii) strengthening of the capacity of local communities to make their own management choices
for LPHC-type disaster risks, and (iii) promoting the participation of stakeholders throughout the entire cycle of risk management.
The interdisciplinary framework is discussed with reference to lessons learned from two recent major flood disasters (the
2000 Tokai flood and the 2004 Niigata flood). To implement the goals of the integrated framework, a participatory platform
for disaster risk communication called “Pafrics” has been developed. Preliminary results of the pilot study of participation
and risk communication supported by Pafrics are presented. 相似文献
4.
基于洪水灾害风险管理的背景分析,提出用广义分布函数及其广义熵理论统一描述、物理解析洪水灾害风险管理系统的各种不确定性信息。基于洪水灾害风险形成机制和风险管理理论与水利科学、信息科学、智能科学综合集成途径,提出由洪水灾害孕灾环境和致灾因子危险性广义熵智能分析、承灾体易损性广义熵智能分析、承灾体灾情广义熵智能分析和风险决策广义熵智能分析组成的洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的初步理论框架及其主要研究内容,在其它灾害风险管理中具有一定的参考应用价值。 相似文献
5.
This study presents the methodology and procedure for risk assessment of flood disasters in central Liaoning Province, which was supported by geographical information systems (GIS) and technology of natural disaster risk assessment. On the basis of the standard formulation of natural disaster risk and flood disaster risk index, of which weights were developed using combined weights of entropy, the relative membership degree functions of variable fuzzy set (VFS) theory were calculated using improved set pair analysis, while level values were calculated using VFSs, including hazard levels, exposure levels, vulnerability levels and restorability levels, and the flood risk level for each assessment unit was obtained using the natural disaster index method. Consequently, integrated flood risk map was carried out by GIS spatial analysis technique. The results show that the southwestern and central parts of the study area possess higher risk, while the northwestern and southeastern parts possess lower risk. The results got by the assessment model fits the area of historical flood data; this study offer new insights and possibility to carry out an efficient way for flood disaster prevention and mitigation. The study also provides scientific reference in flood risk management for local and national governmental agencies. 相似文献
6.
A risk analysis for floods and lahars: case study in the Cordillera Central of Colombia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The glacier-covered Nevado del Tolima in the Colombian Cordillera Central is an active volcano with potential lahars that might be more hazardous than those on Nevado del Ruiz. Furthermore, rainfall-triggered floods and landslides notoriously and severely affect the region. For effective disaster prevention, a risk analysis is of primary importance. We present here a risk analysis methodology that is based on the assessment of lahar and rainfall-related flood hazard scenarios and different aspects of vulnerability. The methodology is applied for populated centres in the Combeima valley and the regional capital Ibagué (~500,000 inhabitants). Lahar scenarios of 0.5, 1, 5, and 15?million m3 volume are based on melting of 1, 2, 10, and 25?% of ice, firn and snow, respectively, due to volcanic activity and subsequent lahar formation. For flood modelling, design floods with a return period of 10 and 100?years were calculated. Vulnerability is assessed considering physical vulnerability, operationalized by market values of dwelling parcels and population density, whereas social vulnerability is expressed by the age structure of the population and poverty. Standardization of hazard and vulnerability allows for the integration into a risk equation, resulting in five-level risk maps, with additional quantitative estimate of damage. The probability of occurrence of lahars is low, but impacts would be disastrous, with about 20,000 people and more directly exposed to it. Floods are much more recurrent, but affected areas are generally smaller. High-risk zones in Ibagué are found in urban areas close to the main river with high social vulnerability. The methodology has proven to be a suitable tool to provide a first overview of spatial distribution of risk which is considered by local and regional authorities for disaster risk reduction. The harmonization of technical-engineering risk analysis and approaches from social sciences into common reference concepts should be further developed. 相似文献
7.
Ibidun O. Adelekan 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(1):215-231
The paper presents the result of a vulnerability assessment of urban dwellers to a major flood hazard in Abeokuta, southwestern
Nigeria in July 2007. This was achieved by means of questionnaire survey administered to 248 flood area residents. Flood vulnerability
was assessed by examining exposure, susceptibility, and coping indicators in the study area. Findings of the study show that
although about 50% of respondents had experienced floods, in Abeokuta or elsewhere in the past, majority (66%) did not anticipate
a flood event of such magnitude to occur despite its location on a flood plain and, therefore, were unprepared for such hazard.
Pre-warning of the flood event was generally lacking among flood area residents as only 8% of respondents indicated pre-warning,
which was based on personal observations. Response to the flood hazard was mainly reactive for both private and public agents
as flood risk reduction measures were not in place. 相似文献
8.
近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。 相似文献
9.
近年来，在全球气候变化和城市化快速发展的共同影响下，中国城市洪涝灾害日益严重，已经成为影响中国城市公共安全的突出问题，严重制约经济社会的持续健康发展。变化环境下城市洪涝致灾机理与风险评估研究是完善城市防洪除涝减灾体系、提升城市防洪除涝能力的重要依据。本文阐述了气候变化和城市化发展对城市洪涝灾害的影响机制，系统分析了城市洪涝灾害的驱动要素和致灾机理，梳理了城市洪涝灾害的风险评估和分区方法，并以济南市海绵城市示范区为例，对城市洪涝灾害风险分区方法进行了分析和对比。 相似文献
10.
针对复杂洪水灾害系统中随机、模糊、灰色等各种不确定性,结合洪水灾害风险管理广义熵智能分析的理论框架,以最大熵原理和属性区间识别理论为基础,建立了基于最大熵原理的洪水灾害风险属性区间识别模型(AIRM-POME),利用梯形模糊数和层次分析法相结合的方法确定评价指标权重,采用均化系数综合AIRM-POME计算得到的属性测度区间,由置信度准则和特征值公式对各评价单元进行危险、易损等级的评定和排序,并根据联合国对自然灾害风险的定义及其定量表达式给出风险等级。将模型应用到荆江分洪区洪水灾害风险分析中,实例研究表明,模型合理可靠,深层次地刻画了各种不确定性,是一种风险分析新方法,可推广应用到其他自然灾害的风险分析中。 相似文献
11.
In this paper, we present an approach to modelling multicriteria flood vulnerability which integrates the economic, social
and ecological dimension of risk and coping capacity. We start with an existing multicriteria risk mapping approach. The term
risk is used here in a way that could be called a starting point view, looking at vulnerability without considering coping capacities. We extend this approach by a multicriteria modelling of coping capacities towards an end point view of vulnerability. In doing so, we explore a way to differentiate coping capacity from flood risk in each of the dimensions
of vulnerability. The approach is tested in an urban case study, the city of Leipzig, Germany. Our results show that it is
possible to map multicriteria risks as well as coping capacities and relate them in a simple way. However, a detailed calculation
of end point vulnerability would require more detailed knowledge on the causal relationships between risk and coping capacity criteria
and their relative importance. 相似文献
12.
基于自然灾害风险原理,结合青海省气象数据、地理信息数据、社会经济数据,并利用主成分分析法、GIS自然断点法对青海省暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度、承载体易损度评估模型以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险度进行评估,结果表明：青海省不同强度降水日数均呈增多趋势,新世纪以来中雨日数及强降水日数增加趋势尤为明显;暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度呈由东南向西北降低的趋势,承载体易损度为东北部地区最高,南部以及西部地区最低;暴雨洪涝风险较高的地区主要集中在东部地区,互助、湟中、大通、西宁为高风险区,东部大部地区、环青海湖地区为较高风险区,西部地区为低风险区。该评估结果可以在气象灾害风险管理业务中进行应用,可以加强对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响程度及影响区域的判定,为地方防灾减灾救灾工作提供科学依据。 相似文献
13.
An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively. 相似文献
14.
Ratiranjan Jena Biswajeet Pradhan Sambit Prasanajit Naik Abdullah M. Alamri 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(3):101110
Earthquake prediction is currently the most crucial task required for the probability, hazard, risk mapping, and mitigation purposes. Earthquake prediction attracts the researchers' attention from both academia and industries. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. However, deep learning techniques have been rarely tested for earthquake probability mapping. Therefore, this study develops a convolutional neural network (CNN) model for earthquake probability assessment in NE India. Then conducts vulnerability using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), Venn's intersection theory for hazard, and integrated model for risk mapping. A prediction of classification task was performed in which the model predicts magnitudes more than 4 Mw that considers nine indicators. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. Finally, earthquake risk map was produced by multiplying hazard, vulnerability, and coping capacity. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. Results show that CNN is superior to the other algorithms, which completed the classification prediction task with an accuracy of 0.94, precision of 0.98, recall of 0.85, and F1 score of 0.91. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 km2), vulnerability (480.98 km2), and risk (34,586.10 km2) was estimated. 相似文献
15.
What do people think about the flood risk? An experience with the residents of Talcahuano city,Chile
In the province of Concepción (Chile), floods are considered one of the main natural hazards. One of the most important cities of this area is Talcahuano. During the last years, Talcahuano has been affected by a number of flood episodes, as a consequence of an increase in the frequency of extraordinary atmospheric events, along with a higher exposure to the flood risk caused by an intense urban development. On 27 February 2010, an 8.8° earthquake (Richter scale) occurred in central southern Chile and originated the tsunami which flooded a large percentage of the residential area and military base of the Talcahuano city. This flood event affected a population higher than 180,000 people (including 23 casualties and invaluable economic and environmental losses). The objective of this study is to investigate the social perception and knowledge of Talcahuano residents affected by different types of flood, including tsunami, emphasizing which are their risks, vulnerability, resilience and coping capacity concepts. In addition, the kind of measures that have been proposed to improve their capacity to face floods after having suffered the natural disaster will be determined. This social assessment has been carried out based on a survey to permanent residents. Research results reveal that their endogenous and exogenous characteristics have resulted determinant to explain their perception. 相似文献
16.
Alternative water management options to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Urbanization, land subsidence and sea level rise will increase vulnerability of the urbanized low-lying areas in the western
part of the Netherlands. In this article possibilities are explored to reduce vulnerability of these areas by implementing
alternative water management options. Two main water management fields are distinguished, water supply and flood control.
A four-component vulnerability framework is presented that includes threshold capacity, coping capacity, recovery capacity,
and adaptive capacity. By using the vulnerability framework it is shown that current water supply and flood control strategies
in the Netherlands focus on increasing threshold capacity by constructing higher and stronger dikes, improved water storage
and delivery infrastructure. A complete vulnerability decreasing strategy requires measures that include all four capacities.
Flood damage reduction, backup water supply systems and emergency plans are measures that can contribute to increasing coping
capacity. Recovery capacity can be increased by multi-source water supply, insurance, or establishing disaster funds. Adaptive
capacity can be developed by starting experiments with new modes of water supply and urbanization. Including all four components
of the vulnerability framework enables better understanding of water and climate related vulnerability of urban areas and
enables developing more complete water management strategies to reduce vulnerability. 相似文献
17.
Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding
in the Limpopo Province, South Africa 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South
Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey
of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article
argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the
management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability. 相似文献
18.
The assessment of vulnerability provides valuable knowledge in the risk assessment steps of a risk governance process. Given the multiscale, multilevel, and multisectorial aspects of flood risk, the diversified entities that directly and indirectly intervene in risk management require specific outputs from the assessment studies. Urban areas in estuarine margins are particularly exposed and vulnerable to flooding. Such interface conditions are found in the Old City Centre of the Seixal, located in the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Here, two distinct methodologies were applied for the assessment of territorial vulnerability. A regional, lower-scale, methodology explores the application of the statistical procedure based on the SoVI® at the statistical block level. A second, local and higher-scale, methodology is based in data collected through field matrices at the building and statistical sub-block level. Comparison of results revealed that the lower-scale assessment provides information on the vulnerability drivers at the regional and municipal level. Nevertheless, only at a higher-scale, it is possible to characterize and differentiate the smaller geographical units of analysis that compose the Old City Centre of Seixal. The lower-scale vulnerability assessment allows a strategic response, based on adaptation measures such as spatial planning, institutional capacity building and public awareness. The local level assessment provides more accurate knowledge to support local emergency planning and the allocation of operational and material resources at the urban level. Nevertheless, rather than antagonistic, both models can be considered as complementary, having in mind the requirements of an holistic flood risk governance model. 相似文献
19.
Santos Pedro Pinto Tavares Alexandre Oliveira Freire Paula Rilo Ana 《Natural Hazards》2017,93(1):77-95
The assessment of vulnerability provides valuable knowledge in the risk assessment steps of a risk governance process. Given the multiscale, multilevel, and multisectorial aspects of flood risk, the diversified entities that directly and indirectly intervene in risk management require specific outputs from the assessment studies. Urban areas in estuarine margins are particularly exposed and vulnerable to flooding. Such interface conditions are found in the Old City Centre of the Seixal, located in the Tagus estuary, Portugal. Here, two distinct methodologies were applied for the assessment of territorial vulnerability. A regional, lower-scale, methodology explores the application of the statistical procedure based on the SoVI® at the statistical block level. A second, local and higher-scale, methodology is based in data collected through field matrices at the building and statistical sub-block level. Comparison of results revealed that the lower-scale assessment provides information on the vulnerability drivers at the regional and municipal level. Nevertheless, only at a higher-scale, it is possible to characterize and differentiate the smaller geographical units of analysis that compose the Old City Centre of Seixal. The lower-scale vulnerability assessment allows a strategic response, based on adaptation measures such as spatial planning, institutional capacity building and public awareness. The local level assessment provides more accurate knowledge to support local emergency planning and the allocation of operational and material resources at the urban level. Nevertheless, rather than antagonistic, both models can be considered as complementary, having in mind the requirements of an holistic flood risk governance model.
相似文献20.
Suburban areas have become rapid development zones during China’s current urbanization. Generally, these areas are also regional precipitation centers that are prone to flood disasters. Therefore, it is important to assess the flood risk in suburban areas. In this study, flood risk was defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability based on disaster risk theory. A risk assessment index system was established, and the analytic hierarchy process method was used to determine the index weight. The Fangshan District in Beijing, China, which is an example of a typical suburban area undergoing rapid urbanization, was selected for this study. Six factors were considered in relation to hazard, and three factors were considered for vulnerability. Each indicator was discretized, standardized, weighted, and then combined to obtain the final flood risk map in a geographical information system environment. The results showed that the high and very high risk zones in the Fangshan District were primarily concentrated on Yingfeng Street, Xingcheng Street, Xincheng Street, and Chengguanzhen Street. The comparison to an actual flood disaster suggested that the method was effective and practical. The method can quantitatively reflect the relative magnitude and spatial distribution patterns of flood risk in a region. The method can be applied easily to most suburban areas in China for land use planning and flood risk management. 相似文献