Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.
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Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
This paper examines the dynamics of innovation in low-carbon energy technologies distinguishing between research and development and technology diffusion as a response to alternative climate policies. We assess the implications of second-best policies that depart from the assumption of immediate and global participation and of full technology availability. The analysis highlights the heterogeneous effects of climate policy on different energy R&D programs and discusses the contribution of important determinants such as carbon price and policy stringency, policy credibility, policy and technological spillovers and absorptive capacity. 相似文献
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This paper presents an empirical study of the relationship between residential energy demand and temperature. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage and special emphasis is given to the heterogeneous response of different regions and to the contrasting effects on energy demand for cooling and heating purposes. To account for this we distinguish between different regions, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature demand elasticities are estimated. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts as they provide an empirical basis for the study of the impact of climate change on energy demand. To illustrate the potential of the results as a basis for the study of climate change impacts, the estimates are used in a simple exercise that projects changes in energy demand due to temperatures increase in 2085. 相似文献
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This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options can promote innovation in new technologies and have a positive impact on welfare. We focus on the case of a nuclear power phase-out and endogenous technical change in energy efficiency and alternative low carbon technologies. The research is inspired by the re-thinking about nuclear power deployment which took place in some countries, especially in Western Europe, after the Fukushima accident in March 2011. The analysis uses an Integrated Assessment Model, WITCH, which features multiple externalities related to greenhouse gas emissions and innovation market failures. Our results show that phasing out nuclear power stimulates R&D investments and deployment of technologies with large learning potential. The resulting technology benefits that would not otherwise occur due to intertemporal and international externalities almost completely offset the economic costs of foregoing nuclear power. The extent of technology benefits depends on the stringency of the climate policy and is distributed unevenly across countries. 相似文献
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Massimo Tavoni Enrica De Cian Gunnar Luderer Jan Christoph Steckel Henri Waisman 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):39-57
This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of specific mitigation technologies, comparing three integrated assessment models used in the RECIPE comparison exercise. Our results indicate that the diversification of the carbon mitigation portfolio is an important determinant of the feasibility of climate policy. Foregoing specific low carbon technologies raises the cost of achieving the climate policy, though at different rates. CCS and renewables are shown to have the highest value, given their flexibility and wide coverage. The costs associated with technology failure are shown to be related to the role that each technology plays in the stabilization scenario, but also to the expectations about their technological progress. In particular, the costs of restriction of mature technologies can be partly compensated by more innovation and technological advancement. 相似文献
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甘肃公婆泉铜矿田中—晚志留世浅海相火山喷发旋回及火山作用演化 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7
根据甘肃公婆泉铜矿田内４条典型地层剖面,确立了甘肃公婆泉群中－上志留统浅海相火山喷发沉积岩系的标准层和层序,并将其划分为１４个韵律和５个旋回。火山喷发旋回由早→晚,火山岩岩性由安山质凝灰岩、安山岩→英安岩、钠流纹岩→石英粗面岩→安山岩,火山岩中铁族元素的丰度由高→低→最低（在石英粗面岩中）→高,形成一个较完整的演化周期。中晚期火山岩所表现出的岩性（出现碱性岩－石英粗面岩）和铁族元素丰度（出现最低值）的突变与区域北西走向断裂的深切活动有关,为铜、银等金属成矿提供主要的地球化学条件。铜、银等成矿元素主要富集在火山喷发旋回中期的英安岩中,表明火山活动中期是主要的成矿期,英安岩可作为重要的找矿标志。此外,早中期火山旋回主要发育于矿田的中西部,而晚期旋回则主要分布在矿田的东部,并且火山喷发的强度和频率增高,表明晚期火山活动中心已明显向东部迁移,因此矿田的东部仍有较大的找矿潜力 相似文献
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