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1.
Landslides triggered by rainfall can be foreseen by modeling the relationship between the time occurrence of landslides and rainfall. This paper deals with the argument by adopting a hydrological model called Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR). The model is applicable for forecasting recurrent landslides and it is based on the identification of a mobility function Y(.) that links the occurrence of a slope movement to the antecedent rainfall. Once the mobility function is defined, it is possible to define its critical values, the exceeding of which indicates that new mobilizations could occur. The FLaIR model has been used to study some phenomena that happened in Lanzo Valleys, a Western Alps sector of the Piedmont region (Northern Italy) where slope debris flows are the predominant landslide type. The study has led to the development of an early warning system, called MoniFLaIR, for real-time monitoring and forecasting of slope hazard. This article describes some details of the system and its performance. 相似文献
2.
根据大气对天顶对流层延迟(Zenith Tropospheric Delay, ZTD)影响的变化特征,提出并实现了一种无气象数据短时降水预报的方法。利用2015年5—6月浙江连续运行参考站(Continuously Operating Reference Station, CORS)网的全球导航卫星系统(Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS)观测数据和对应每小时的降水量信息对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法能够预测出80%以上的降水事件,与国际上利用气象数据根据大气可降水量(Precipitable Water Vapor, PWV)预测出的结果精度相当。表明脱离地面实测气象数据仅利用ZTD对短时降水进行预报可行有效,对于降水的短时预报具有重要研究意义和应用价值。 相似文献
3.
In order to issue an accurate warning for flood, a better or appropriate quantitative forecasting of precipitation is required. In view of this, the present study intends to validate the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) issued during southwest monsoon season for six river catchments (basin) under the flood meteorological office, Patna region. The forecast is analysed statistically by computing various skill scores of six different precipitation ranges during the years 2011–2014. The analysis of QPF validation indicates that the multi-model ensemble (MME) based forecasting is more reliable in the precipitation ranges of 1–10 and 11–25 mm. However, the reliability decreases for higher ranges of rainfall and also for the lowest range, i.e., below 1 mm. In order to testify synoptic analogue method based MME forecasting for QPF during an extreme weather event, a case study of tropical cyclone Phailin is performed. It is realized that in case of extreme events like cyclonic storms, the MME forecasting is qualitatively useful for issue of warning for the occurrence of floods, though it may not be reliable for the QPF. However, QPF may be improved using satellite and radar products. 相似文献
4.
On October 16, 1998, a mudflow of 2,000 m 3 resulting in five deaths in the Neihu area of Taipei city came in the wake of Typhoon Zebert, which delivered approximately 300 mm/day of precipitation. The destructive 50-m-long mudflow rushed down the hill without any forewarning, wreaking severe destruction to the properties below. Based on in-situ investigation, this paper discusses the event scenario and provides critical data analyses to identify the contributing factors and main triggering mechanism of the disaster. The chances of possible water uplift due to groundwater conditions, the engineering properties of the geomaterials, and the influence of man-made changes in the morphology are examined in weighing the importance of these factors and identifying the main trigger. 相似文献
5.
To deeply understand the micro-/mesoscale dynamic characteristics of the torrential rain process in Urumqi and improve the levels of torrential rain monitoring, forecasting and early warning, this paper analyzed the wind profile features and related scientific problems of three typical torrential rain events seen in 2013–2015 in this region. The research results suggested that: (1) Radar wind profiler can record in detail the movement condition of the atmosphere during the process of torrential rains. Carrying out detailed analyses on the wind profile data is conductive to the improvement in monitoring, forecasting and warning to torrential rain event at a single observation station. (2) When Urumqi experiences heavy rain weather, noticeable wind shear is usually observed above the observation station. In the upper air, it is southwest wind, while in the lower air it is northwest wind, which is the typical wind profile pattern for heavy rain events in the Urumqi region. (3) Obvious northwest low-level jet stream is found to go together with precipitation, and the jet is positively correlated with precipitation intensity. The velocity of low-level jet stream greatly impacts the amount and intensity of precipitation. (4) The rainstorm weather phenomena are clearly presented by the time–height chart of radar reflectivity factors. The high reflectivity values correspond positively to the height range of cloud–rain particles as well as the duration and intensity of precipitation, so it can be used as a reference index of precipitation monitoring and early warning. In a word, this research deepens on the recognition to the micro-/mesoscale weather systems during the process of heavy rains in Urumqi. Moreover, it would contribute to the application improvement of wind profiler data in analyzing the heavy rainfalls in this region. 相似文献
6.
Landslide movements triggered by rainfall can be foreseen in real-time by modelling the relationship between rainfall amount
and landslide occurrence. This paper deals with the problem of the reliability of the FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced
by Rainfalls) model when applied to forecasting landslide movements in the usual condition of poor historical information
availability. In this case, the identification of the admissibility field for the model parameters, instead of a point estimation,
leads to an improvement of the forecasting reliability. Moreover, this approach makes the model capable of taking into account
information embodied in periods of heavy rain but without movement. The concepts of informative content and foreseeability
of landslide movements are introduced and their duality is analyzed. The effectiveness of the estimation procedure described
has been tested by application on two landslides located in southern Italy.
Received: 15 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997 相似文献
7.
Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R 2 = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R 2 = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R 2 = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, a new version of the hydrological model named FLaIR (Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall) is described, and it is indicated as GFM (Generalized FLaIR Model). Nonstationary rainfall thresholds, depending on antecedent precipitation, are introduced in this new release, which allows for a better prediction of landslide occurrences. Authors demonstrate that GFM is able to reproduce all the antecedent precipitation models (AP) proposed in technical literature as particular cases, besides intensity-duration schemes (ID) and more conceptual approaches, like Leaky Barrel, whose reconstruction with the first release of FlaIR model, which adopts only stationary thresholds, was already discussed in technical literature. Authors applied GFM for two case studies: 1) Gimigliano municipality, which is located in Calabria region (southern Italy) and where a consistent number of landslides occurred in the past years; in particular, during the period 2008–2010, this area (like the whole Calabria region) was affected by persistent rainfall events, which severely damaged infrastructures and buildings; 2) Barcelonnette Basin, which is located in the dry intra-Alpine zone (South French Alps). The high flexibility of GFM allows to obtain significant improvements in landslide prediction; in details, a substantial reduction of false alarms is obtained with respect to application of classical ID and AP schemes. 相似文献
9.
总结了石城镇泥石流沟松散堆积物的特点,依据现场调查泥石流一次冲刷的深度,推导出泥石流沟内松散堆积物动储量的计算公式,对已调查的泥石流沟内动物质储量进行了计算,为泥石流的预警和治理提供了基础数据。 相似文献
10.
宁镇地区是长江中下游地质灾害最严重的地区之一。镇江润州区虽然仅是宁镇地区的一个局部区域,但其气候和地质环境特征具有典型意义,所提出的地质灾害气象预警预报模型同样适用于整个宁镇地区,对长江中下游地区亦有借鉴作用。气候环境、降雨尤其是连续降雨或强降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。润州区地质灾害主要与梅雨期总降雨量有关,其次与台汛期台风带来的降雨量有关,而与台汛期总降雨量无关。地质灾害预测预警方程应针对不同时期采用不同的预警模型：非梅雨期的预警方程采用预报日降雨量结合前5日降水之和的综合模型,梅雨期的预警方程采用梅雨期降雨总量模型。提出地质灾害气象预报预警等级应根据《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》将等级统一划分为4级。该模型可作为完善我国现有地质灾害气象预警预报系统的参考。 相似文献
11.
In real-time flood warning systems, sufficient lead-time is important for people to take suitable actions. Rainfall forecasting is one of the ways commonly used to extend the lead-time for catchments with short response time. However, an accurate forecast of rainfall is still difficult for hydrologists using the present deterministic model. Therefore, a probability-based rainfall forecasting model, based on Markov chain, was proposed in this study. The rainfall can be forecast one to three hours in advance for a specified nonexceeding probability using the transition probability matrix of rainfall state. In this study, the nonexceeding probability, which was hourly updated on the basis of development or decay of rainfall processes, was taken as a dominant variable parameter. The accuracy of rainfall forecasting one to three hours in advance is concluded from the application of this model to four recording rain gauges. A lumped rainfall-runoff forecasting model derived from a transfer function was further applied in unison with this rainfall forecasting model to forecast flows one to four hours in advance. The results of combination of these two models show good performance with agreement between the observed and forecast hydrographs. 相似文献
12.
The article aims to test the sensitivity of high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric model to fairly reproduce atmospheric processes that were present during the Boothbay Harbor meteotsunami on 28 October 2008. The simulations were performed by the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model at 1-km horizontal grid spacing by varying initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), nesting strategy, simulation lead time and microphysics and convective parameterizations. It seems that the simulations that used higher-resolution IC and LBC were more successful in reproduction of precipitation zone and surface pressure oscillations caused by internal gravity waves observed during the event. The results were very sensitive to the simulation lead time and to the choice of convective parameterization, while the choice of microphysics parameterization and the type of nesting strategy (one-way or two-way) was less important for reproducibility of the event. The success of the WRF model appears limited to very short-range forecasting, most advanced parameterizations, and very high-resolution grid spacing; therefore, the applicability of present atmospheric mesoscale models to future operational meteotsunami warning systems still has a lot of room for improvements. 相似文献
13.
We investigated the atmospheric processes and physics that were active during a tsunami-like event hitting Boothbay Harbor area (Maine, USA) on 28 October 2008. The data collected by tide gauges, ground and sounding stations and meteo–ocean buoys in the area were analyzed, together with satellite and radar images. The atmospheric processes were reproduced by the weather research and forecasting model, verified by in situ and remote sensing data. A cold front moved over the area at the time of the event, with embedded convective clouds detected by satellite and radar data and the internal gravity waves (IGWs) detected by radar and reproduced by the model at the rear of the frontal precipitation band. According to the model, the IGWs that passed over Boothbay Harbor generated strong ground air-pressure oscillations reaching 2.5 hPa/3 min. The IGWs were ducted towards the coast without significant dissipation, propagating in a stable near-surface layer capped by an instability at approximately 3.5 km height and satisfying all conditions for their maintenance over larger areas. The intensity, speed and direction of the IGWs were favourable for generation of a meteotsunami wave along the Gulf of Maine shelf. Operational observation systems were not capable of sufficiently capturing the ground disturbance due to a too coarse sampling rate, while the numerical model was found to be a useful tool in eventual future detection and warning systems. 相似文献
14.
基于WEBGIS平台,根据浙江省地质灾害大调查和补充调查资料,结合浙江省气象台提供的雨季实时降雨量与降雨量预测信息,建立了浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统。该系统目的在于：（1）建立浙江省突发性地质灾害信息库管理系统,实现对突发性地质灾害点分布和灾情信息的图形和数据一体化管理;（2）建立基于网络或其它通讯方式的滑坡（泥石流）灾害实时预警预报系统,实现与气象部门的连接,根据雨季的实时降雨预报和雨量资料,对浙江省滑坡（泥石流）灾害发生的空间范围进行实时发布。该系统核心是地质灾害预警预报模块,而模块是在区域地质灾害空间预测的基础上,结合实时的气象动态信息,研究在不同地质环境和不同气象条件下地质灾害体发生的规律,以提高区域地质灾害的预报精度。2004年的5月底到7月初的雨季中进行了试运行,该系统的预测情况与地质灾害的实际发生情况吻合性较好,表明预测方法和模型是基本可行的,且可操作性强。 相似文献
15.
The development of Early Warning Systems in recent years has assumed an increasingly important role in landslide risk mitigation.
In this context, the main topic is the relationship between rainfall and the incidence of landslides. In this paper, we focus
our attention on the analysis of mathematical models capable of simulating triggering conditions. These fall into two broad
categories: hydrological models and complete models. Generally, hydrological models comprise simple empirical relationships
linking antecedent precipitation to the time that the landslide occurs; the latter consist of more complex expressions that
take several components into account, including specific site conditions, mechanical, hydraulic and physical soil properties,
local seepage conditions, and the contribution of these to soil strength. In a review of the most important models proposed
in the technical and international literature, we have outlined their most meaningful and salient aspects. In particular,
the Forecasting of Landslides Induced by Rainfall (FLaIR) and the Saturated Unsaturated Simulation for Hillslope Instability
(SUSHI) models, developed by the authors, are discussed. FLaIR is a hydrological model based on the identification of a mobility
function dependent on landslide characteristics and antecedent rainfall, correlated to the probability of a slide occurring.
SUSHI is a complete model for describing hydraulic phenomena at slope scale, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, with particular
emphasis on spatial–temporal changes in subsoil pore pressure. It comprises a hydraulic module for analysing the circulation
of water from rainfall infiltration in saturated and nonsaturated layers in non-stationary conditions and a geotechnical slope
stability module based on Limit Equilibrium Methods. The paper also includes some examples of these models’ applications in
the framework of early warning systems in Italy. 相似文献
16.
The hydro-mechanical behaviour of a clay-based buffer material for nuclear waste disposal has been investigated in a laboratory program. In this program, the main focus was on the influence of confinement on water uptake and swelling pressure during suction decrease. The laboratory program and some of the results are presented by Dueck [Dueck, A., 2006. Laboratory results from hydro-mechanical tests on a water unsaturated bentonite. submitted for publication.]. The results from the laboratory tests were used to find a relationship between water content, void ratio, swelling pressure and suction. Two equations for swelling pressure represent the outline of the model. In the first equation, the swelling pressure developed during water uptake is normalised by a pressure corresponding to the swelling pressure at saturation. This is done in order to be independent of void ratio. A relationship between the normalised swelling pressure and the degree of saturation is suggested. The second equation describes a relationship between the swelling pressure, the water content and the actual suction (or relative humidity). The equation is based on a thermodynamic relationship and includes the retention curve (i.e. water content vs. suction under free swelling conditions). The model can be used for a state where two of the four variables; water content, void ratio, swelling pressure and suction are known and can thus be useful to evaluate field measurements and model late stages of the wetting process. An example of an application is given. The equations are mainly based on results from tests with increasing degrees of saturation under constant void ratio but are also suggested for use with increasing void ratio. 相似文献
17.
The October 6/2000 Tottori earthquake that occurred in central Japan was an intermediate size strike-slip event that produced a very large number of near field strong motion recordings. The large amount of recorded data provides a unique opportunity for investigating a source asperity model of the Tottori earthquake that, combined with a hybrid strong motion simulation technique, is able to reproduce the observed broadband frequency near-fault ground motion. We investigated the optimum source asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake, by applying a Genetic Algorithm (GA) inversion scheme to optimise the fitting between simulated and observed response spectra and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. We constrained the initial model of our inversion by using the heterogeneous slip distribution obtained from a kinematic inversion of the source of previous studies. We used all the observed near-fault ground motions (−100 m) from the borehole strong motion network of Japan (KiK-Net), which are little affected by surficial geology (site effects). The calculation of broadband frequency strong ground motion (0.1–10 Hz) is achieved by applying a hybrid technique that combines a deterministic simulation of the wave propagation for the low frequencies and a semi-stochastic modelling approach for the high frequencies. For the simulation of the high frequencies, we introduce a frequency-dependent radiation pattern model that efficiently removes the dependence of the pattern coefficient on the azimuth and take-off angle as the frequency increases. The good agreement between the observed and simulated broadband ground motions shows that our inversion procedure is successful in estimating the optimum asperity parameters of the Tottori earthquake and provides a good test for the strong ground motion simulation technique. The ratio of background stress drop to average asperity stress drop from our inversion is nearly 50%, in agreement with the theoretical asperity model of Das and Kostrov [Das, S., Kostrov, B.V., 1986. Fracture of a single asperity on a finite fault: a model for weak earthquakes? Earthquake Source Mechanics, AGU, pp. 91–96.], and an empirical ratio of asperities to rupture area [Seismol. Res. Lett. 70 (1999) 59–80.]. The simulated radiation pattern is very complex for epicentral distances within half the fault length, but it approaches the radiation of a double-couple point source for larger distances. The rupture velocity and rise time have a significant influence on the Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) distribution around the fault. An increase in rupture velocity produces a similar effect on the ground motion as a reduction in rise time. 相似文献
18.
The physical properties of bentonite-based buffer materials for nuclear waste repositories have been investigated by a number of different laboratory tests. These tests have yielded a material model that is valid for conditions close to water saturation and is useful for describing: (a) the stress, strain and volume change behaviour; (b) the pore pressure and flow of water; and (c) the thermal and thermomechanical response. The material model is based on the Drucker-Prager Plasticity model and a Porous Elastic Model. The effective stress concept and Darcy's law are applied and the swelling/consolidation and thermomechanical processes are coupled according to the separate mechanical properties of the pore water, the solids and the clay skeleton. The model can be used by the finite-element program ABAQUS. The model has been tested in several laboratory and field verification tests. Comparison between measured and calculated behaviour shows that the general behaviour is described properly and several calculations of different scenarios have been made for the Swedish KBS 3 concept. However, certain processes, like the hysteresis effect at consolidation/swelling, the curved stress-strain relation at shearing, and the curved failure envelope, are not modelled in a perfectly accurate way and an improved material model is proposed here. It combines the behaviour of the Cam-clay model on the wet side with the more relevant plastic behaviour of a modified Drucker-Prager model with a curved failure envelope and the possibility to introduce strain softening after failure. The paper presents some laboratory results that are the basis of the first model. It also shows the application of the model to finite-element calculations of some laboratory tests. Comparisons between the calculations and measured results expose some disadvantages of the model and a concept for an improved model is suggested. 相似文献
19.
Weather radars in investigating physical characteristics of precipitation are becoming essential instruments in the field of short term meteorological investigation and forecasting. To analyze the radar signal impact in hydrological forecasting, precipitation input fields, generated through a statistical mathematical model, are supplied to a distributed hydrological model. Such a model would allow the control of the basin response to precipitation measurements obtained by a meteorological radar and, in the meanwhile, to evaluate the influence of distributed input. The distributed model describes the basin hydrological behavior, subdividing it into distinct geometrical cells and increasing the physical significance by reproducing the distributed hydrographic basins characteristics, such as infiltration capacity, runoff concentration time, network propagation speed, soil moisture influence. Each basin cell is characterized by its geological, pedological and morphological status, and may be considered a unitary hydrological system, linked to the others by geomorphological and hydraulic relationships. To evaluate the dynamics of the flood event a synthetic representation of the channel network is introduced, where each stream branch is modeled as a linear reservoir. Finally, the discharge in the outlet section is derived, taking into account the hydraulic characteristics of the upstream branches. 相似文献
20.
降雨诱发的浅层黄土泥流规模小、流速快、冲击力强、发育范围广、难以防御、致灾频率高,近两年造成了大量人员伤亡,急需开展其形成机制与强度的研究。黄土物质组成与水敏性、坡体形态对降雨入渗—积水的响应、黄土斜坡对降水入渗的力学响应机制、富水黄土粘滞性流动特性是制约浅层黄土泥流形成的四种主要因素,分析这四种因素的对浅层黄土泥流形成的制约作用需解决斜坡降雨入渗的水文过程、非饱和土的力学效应及水土耦合的机制等前沿问题。本文对影响泥流形成的各因素研究的最新进展进行了综述,同时讨论了研究中的核心问题,并提出了相应的对策与方案,认为可从三方面开展研究:(1)定量描述泥流体积扩容特征,建立浅层黄土泥流启动与流动模式;(2)分析泥流与原状黄土物质成分、组成结构差异,开展黄土非饱和增湿力学变形试验,监测0°~60°单面坡与坡肩平缓斜坡的降雨入渗过程,研究坡体形态对雨水汇聚、入渗及基质吸力变化的控制特征,揭示泥流流体运动过程中水土响应机制;(3)对浅层黄土泥流物理力学模型进行解析,讨论泥流流动能量转化特征,建立降雨诱发泥流灾害的强度计算模型,为降雨泥流灾害危险性定量计算提供理论支撑。 相似文献
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