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Pao-Shan?YuEmail author Shien-Tsung?Chen Chia-Jung?Chen Tao-Chang?Yang 《Natural Hazards》2005,34(2):131-150
This study applies the fuzzy multi-objective approach to forecast short-term (around 24 h) typhoon rainfall, which can be implemented without much background meteorological knowledge. The physical characteristics of 40 typhoons, including route, central pressure, central velocity and cyclonic radius, were used as the data set. The fuzzy multi-objective method mined information from the database to forecast both the depth and pattern of rainfall, which were then combined to estimate a cumulative rainfall curve. The results of calibration with reference to 40 historical typhoon events and the results of validation using another five typhoon events indicate that the proposed model has the potential to forecast short-term cumulative rainfall curves if more variables can be included and more historical typhoon events can be collected to enlarge the database. 相似文献
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Effects of Climate Change on Evapotranspiration from Paddy Fields in Southern Taiwan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The major objective of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration from paddy fields. A sensitivity analysis of meteorological variables at the Kao-Hsiung station, one of meteorological stations in southern Taiwan, was carried out using the modified Penman formula. Forty-eight-year records of temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, and precipitation depth comprised the database. Trend and persistence analyses of the data were performed using the Mann–Kendall test, the Cumulative Deviation test, Linear Regression, andthe Autocorrelation Coefficient. The results indicated that only temperature and relative humidity have significant long-term trends and persistence. Two climatic scenarios, viz. (1) linear extrapolation of climatic trends and (2) the predictions of General Circulation Models (GCMs), were assumed to investigate the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The study revealed that evapotranspiration from paddy fields increased under both climatic scenarios studied. 相似文献
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In real-time flood warning systems, sufficient lead-time is important for people to take suitable actions. Rainfall forecasting is one of the ways commonly used to extend the lead-time for catchments with short response time. However, an accurate forecast of rainfall is still difficult for hydrologists using the present deterministic model. Therefore, a probability-based rainfall forecasting model, based on Markov chain, was proposed in this study. The rainfall can be forecast one to three hours in advance for a specified nonexceeding probability using the transition probability matrix of rainfall state. In this study, the nonexceeding probability, which was hourly updated on the basis of development or decay of rainfall processes, was taken as a dominant variable parameter. The accuracy of rainfall forecasting one to three hours in advance is concluded from the application of this model to four recording rain gauges. A lumped rainfall-runoff forecasting model derived from a transfer function was further applied in unison with this rainfall forecasting model to forecast flows one to four hours in advance. The results of combination of these two models show good performance with agreement between the observed and forecast hydrographs. 相似文献
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Impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan 总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17
This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan. The upstream catchment of Shin-Fa Bridge station in the Kao-Pen Creek basin was the study area chosen herein. The historical trends of meteorological variables, such as mean daily temperature, mean daily precipitation on wet days, monthly wet days, and the transition probabilities of daily precipitation occurrence in each month, at the Kao-Hsiung meteorological station, near the catchments were detected using a non-parametric statistical test. The trends of these meteorological variables were then employed to generate runoff in future climatic conditions using a continuous rainfall–runoff model. The analytical results indicate that the transition probabilities of daily precipitation occurrence significantly influence precipitation generation, and generated runoff for future climatic conditions in southern Taiwan was found to rise during the wet season and decline during the dry season. 相似文献
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