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1.
Trend,periodicity and abrupt change in streamflow of the East River,the Pearl River basin 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 
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下载免费PDF全文 The East River in the Pearl River basin, China, plays a vital role in the water supply for mega‐cities within and in the vicinity of the Pearl River Delta. Knowledge of statistical variability of streamflow is therefore important for water resources management in the basin. This study analyzed streamflow from four hydrological stations on the East River for a period of 1951–2009, using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), continuous wavelet transform (CWT) technique, scanning t and F tests. Results indicated increasing/decreasing streamflow in the East River basin before/after the 1980s. After the early 1970s, the high/low flow components were decreasing/increasing. CWT‐based analysis demonstrates a significant impact of water reservoirs on the periodicity of streamflow. Scanning t and F test indicates that significantly abrupt changes in streamflow are largely influenced by both water reservoirs construction and precipitation changes. Thus, changes of streamflow, which are reflected by variations of trend, periodicity and abrupt change, are due to both water reservoir construction and precipitation changes. Further, the changes of volume of streamflow in the East River are in good agreement with precipitation changes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
AbstractIn this study, a hydrological model and spatial technologies have been employed to assess water availability in the Mat River basin, southern Mizoram, India. Furthermore, the results obtained from the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, satellite data and GIS tools were utilized to identify the hydropower potential in the basin. Thirty three sites with hydropower potential were identified within 147 km2 of the Mat River basin. A total of 3039, 1127 and 805 kW can be harnessed with 50, 75 and 90% dependability, respectively. The study revealed that the hydropower potential of a river basin can be correctly assessed by employing a digital elevation model, stream network data and a hydrological model, such as the SWAT model, within a GIS framework.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
3.
AbstractThis investigation presents a new approach to estimate the costs resulting from the introduction of environmental flows in the arid Huasco River basin, located in the Atacama Region of Chile, one of the most sophisticated private water markets worldwide. The aim is to provide information to the water users, who hold the right to decide on water use, and thereby support the inclusion of environmental flows into decision-making. Costs are estimated by calculating the loss of agricultural productivity resulting from a trade-off between users and environmental flow requirements in times of water scarcity. Based on environmental flow requirements calculated by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), and hydrological supply-and-demand modelling using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model, economic parameters of water productivity are calculated for the main economic sectors and then included in hydrological analysis. The study presents concrete costs that might be imposed on the water users during times of water scarcity, and confirms that there are significant variations in water productivity between different sectors.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. AcremanCitation Wagnitz, P., Núñez, J., and Ribbe, L., 2014. Cost of environmental flow during water scarcity in the arid Huasco River basin, northern Chile. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 700–712. 相似文献
4.
The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
Using the multi‐scale entropy analysis (MSE), we study the effects of water reservoirs on the river flow records based on long streamflow series covering January 1, 1954 and December 31, 2009 at four representative hydrological stations, i.e. the Longchuan, the Heyuan, the Lingxia and the Boluo stations. Hydrological effects of two major water reservoirs, the Xinfengjiang and the Fengshuba water reservoirs, are evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) before the construction of the water reservoirs, the complexity of the streamflow series comes to be decreasing from the upper to the lower East River and which should be attributed to the topographical properties and buffering effects of the river channel; (2) construction of water reservoirs greatly increases the complexity degree of the hydrological processes, and this influence is subjected to a damping process with the increase of distance between the water reservoirs and the hydrological stations; (3) power generation is the major function of the water reservoirs in the East River basin. The results of this study should be of theoretical and scientific merits in terms of conservation of the ecological environment and also water resources management under the influences of climate changes and intensifying human activities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Impacts of changing climate on the hydrology and hydropower production of the Tagus River basin 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Anastasia Lobanova Hagen Koch Stefan Liersch Fred F. Hattermann Valentina Krysanova 《水文研究》2016,30(26):5039-5052
The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
In water-deficient rivers, environmental flows (e-flows) are usually sustained via inter-basin water transfer projects from water-sufficient rivers, but these projects incur tremendous costs and may lead to many negative ecological effects, such as ecological invasion. This research proposed to transfer hydropower instead of water from water-sufficient rivers, because hydropower could substitute for water to promote economic development and reduce water withdrawal from water-deficient rivers (conserved water). In addition, based on the analysis of eco-hydrological processes, the flow regime alteration plays an important role in restoring riverine ecosystem. With the goal of minimum flow regime alternation, we set up two scenarios to distribute the annual conserved water, and determined the optimal amount of transferred hydropower and the optimal use of conserved water, which could effectively sustain the e-flows. Accordingly, this paper established a computable general equilibrium model to analyse the substitution of hydropower for water in a water-deficient river basin, and determined the water withdrawal volume that could be reduced. We adopted a range-of-variability approach to measure the degree of flow regime alteration, and optimized the flow regime management scheme. The Luanhe River Basin was adopted as a study case. The results showed that: the water-hydropower equivalent decreased as the transferred hydropower into the Luanhe River Basin increased; a transferred hydropower amount of 22.46 kWh/s, equivalent to 18.30 m3/s conserved water, was optimal for the river basin; the conserved water should be distributed to the Luanhe River in the proportions of 0.55:0.1:0.35 during the wet, normal and dry seasons, respectively, which is the optimal scheme to sustain the hydrological processes of the river. 相似文献
8.
变化环境下珠江流域洪水频率变化特征、成因及影响(1951-2010年) 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
气候变化和人类活动导致珠江流域水文变化,变化前后洪水频率分布显著不同.运用滑动秩和(Mann-Whitney U test)结合Brown-Forsythe、滑动T、有序聚类和Mann-Kendall检验法,并用累积距平曲线法获取年最大流量序列详细信息,综合确定样本最佳变化节点,并对水文变化成因做了系统分析.在此基础上,对整体序列、变化前后序列用线性矩法推求广义极值分布参数以及不同重现期设计流量.结果表明:(1)西江大部以及北江流域最佳变化节点在1991年左右;东江流域最佳变化节点与该流域内3大控制性水库建成时间基本吻合;(2)变化后,西江、北江年最大流量持续增加,洪峰强度增大,尤其是西江干流年最大流量显著增加;东江流域年最大流量显著减小,洪峰强度降低;(3)变化后,西江与北江洪水风险增加,尤其是下游珠三角地区本身受人类活动显著影响,加之西江与北江持续增加的洪水强度,珠三角地区发生洪水的强度及频次加剧,而东江洪水风险减小.此研究对于珠江流域在变化环境下的洪水风险评估与防洪抗灾具有重要意义. 相似文献
9.
Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China: changing patterns,causes and implications 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Using a nonstationary flood frequency model, this study investigates the impact of trends on the estimation of flood frequencies and flood magnification factors. Analysis of annual peak streamflow data from 28 hydrological stations across the Pearl River basin, China, shows that: (1) northeast parts of the West and the North River basins are dominated by increasing annual peak streamflow, whereas decreasing trends of annual peak streamflow are prevailing in other regions of the Pearl River basin; (2) trends significantly impact the estimation of flood frequencies. The changing frequency of the same flood magnitude is related to the changing magnitude or significance/insignificance of trends, larger increasing frequency can be detected for stations with significant increasing trends of annual peak streamflow and vice versa, and smaller increasing magnitude for stations with not significant increasing annual peak streamflow, pointing to the critical impact of trends on estimation of flood frequencies; (3) larger‐than‐1 flood magnification factors are observed mainly in the northeast parts of the West River basin and in the North River basin, implying magnifying flood processes in these regions and a higher flood risk in comparison with design flood‐control standards; and (4) changes in hydrological extremes result from the integrated influence of human activities and climate change. Generally, magnifying flood regimes in the northeast Pearl River basin and in the North River basin are mainly the result of intensifying precipitation regime; smaller‐than‐1 flood magnification factors along the mainstream of the West River basin and also in the East River basin are the result of hydrological regulations of water reservoirs. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
A three-phase study was initiated as a way to promote Integrated Catchment Management approaches in the Limpopo River basin. This paper presents the situational assessment, which should enable De Beers to understand how their Venetia Mine operations are located within a broader and highly dynamic socio-economic and ecohydrological landscape as it pertains to water risks. The second phase, Risk assessment, aims to develop conservation interventions in the identified areas; the third phase will develop mechanisms for implementing water stewardship schemes to mitigate the shared water risks.Analysis of the social-ecological system (hydrological, climatic, ecological, socio-economic and governance systems) of the Limpopo River basin indicates that the institutional arrangement of the Limpopo River basin is neither simple nor effective. The basin is rapidly approaching closure in the sense that almost all of the available supplies of water have already been allocated to existing water users. If the proposed ecological flow requirements were to be met for all of the tributaries, the basin would be ‘closed’. On-going and projected land use changes and water resources developments in the upper reaches of the basin, coupled with projected rainfall reductions and temperature increases, and allocation of the flows for the ecological reserve, are likely to further reduce downstream river flows. The coupled increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall is of great concern for everyone in the basin, especially the poorer communities, who rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Increased temperatures also lead to increased evaporation from reservoirs and therefore result in a decrease in water availability. This will lead to increased abstraction of groundwater, especially from alluvial aquifers, and consequently an increase in river transmission losses and a decrease in river flows. 相似文献
11.
David A. Jay 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(7):1186-1209
Abstract This paper distinguishes human and climate influences on the Columbia River streamflow disturbance regime, examines how this disturbance regime has changed over the last 150 years, and discusses downstream impacts. Flow management and withdrawal have greatly curtailed exceedence of the natural bankfull level of ～20 000 m3 s-1. The frequency distribution of Columbia River flow has also changed. Sediment transport is positively correlated with streamflow standard deviation, and has been greatly reduced by flow regulation. Three kinds of spring freshet style have been identified; there are also three kinds of winter freshet. Flow regulation and regional climate warming have changed freshet styles and reduced maximum flows during the spring season. Downstream effects of hydrological alterations include increased salinity intrusion length, loss of shallow water habitat area during the freshet season, increased tides throughout most of the year, and a decrease in area of the Columbia River plume during spring and summer. Although climate changes and variations have played a substantial role in changing the hydrological disturbance regime, their influence is still less than that of human manipulation of the flow cycle. Citation Jay, D. A. & Naik, P. K. (2011) Distinguishing human and climate influences on hydrological disturbance processes in the Columbia River, USA. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1186–1209. 相似文献
12.
Abstract The French national project IMAGINE2030 aims to assess future water availability in the Garonne River basin (southwest France) by taking account of changes in both climate and water management in the 2030s. Within this project, two mountainous drainage basins located in the Pyrenees were examined to assess the specific impact of climate change on reservoir management. The Salat River basin at Roquefort, is considered as a proxy (representative of a natural basin), whereas the Ariège River at Foix is influenced by hydropower production in winter and by water releases to sustain low flows in summer. The Cequeau rainfall–runoff model, combined with a simplified model of reservoir management operations, was calibrated on present-day conditions and forced with climate projections derived from the IPCC AR4 report. The results show that a warming climate over the basins induces a decrease in mean annual runoff, a shift to earlier snow melting in mountainous areas and more severe low-flow conditions. The simulations show a decrease in electricity generation. Under two water management scenarios (one “business-as-usual” and the other incorporating an increased downstream water demand in compliance with requirements for increased minimum flow), simulations for the Ariège River basin suggest an earlier filling of the reservoir is necessary in winter to anticipate the increased release from reservoirs in summer to support minimum flow farther downstream. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes Citation Hendrickx, F. and Sauquet, E., 2013. Impact of warming climate on water management for the Ariège River basin (France). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 976–993. 相似文献
13.
Changes in the hydrological regimes of Arctic rivers could affect the thermohaline circulation of the Arctic Ocean. In this study, we analysed spatiotemporal variations in temperature and precipitation in the Ob River Basin regions during 1936–2017 based on data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Center. Changes in discharge and response to climate change were examined based on monthly observed data during the same period. It is indicated the Ob River Basin experienced significant overall rapid warming and wetting (increased precipitation) in the study period, with average rates of 0.20°C (10 year−1) and 5.3 mm (10 year−1), respectively. The annual spatial variations of temperature and precipitation showed different scales in different regions. The discharge in spring and winter significantly increased at a rate of 384.1 and 173.1 m3/s (10 year−1), respectively. Hydrograph separation indicated infiltration and supported that deep flow paths increased the contribution of groundwater to base flow. Meanwhile, the variation of the ratio of Qmax/Qmin suggested that the basin storage and the mechanism of discharge generation have significantly changed. The hydrological processes were influenced by changes of permafrost in a certain in the Ob River Basin. An increase in the recession coefficient (RC) implies that the permafrost degradation in the basin due to climate warming affected hydrological processes in winter. Permafrost degradation affected the Qmax/Qmin more significantly in the warm season than RC due to the enhanced infiltration that converted more surface water into groundwater in the cold season. The impact of precipitation on discharge, including surface flow and base flow, was more significant than temperature at the annual and seasonal scales in the Ob River Basin. The base flow was more obviously influenced by temperature than surface flow. The results of this study are significant for analyses of the basin water budget and freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean. 相似文献
14.
M. MONIRUL QADER MIRZA 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):613-631
Abstract The basin area of the Ganges River in Bangladesh is extremely dependent on a regular water supply from upstream to meet requirements for agriculture, fisheries, navigation, salinity control, and domestic and industrial sectors. In 1975, India commissioned a barrage on the Ganges River at Farakka to divert a significant portion of the dry season flow in order to make the Calcutta Port navigable. Statistical analyses of discharge and water level data have been carried out to determine if significant changes have occurred in the hydrology of the Ganges system in Bangladesh in the post-Farakka period. Siltation of the Gorai River (an offtake of the Ganges River) has also been examined using the stage-discharge relationship and regression analysis. The analyses show that the diversion has caused considerable hydrological changes in the Ganges system in Bangladesh. The water supply in the dry season has been reduced substantially, while siltation of the Gorai River has increased significantly. 相似文献
15.
Yongqin David Chen Tao Yang Chong-Yu Xu Qiang Zhang Xi Chen Zhen-Chun Hao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(1):9-18
This paper presents a visually enhanced evaluation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the dam-induced hydrologic alteration
in the middle and upper East River, south China over 1952–2002, using the range of variability approach (RVA) and visualization
package XmdvTool. The impacts of climate variability on hydrological processes have been removed for wet and dry periods,
respectively, so that we focus on the impacts of human activities (i.e., dam construction). The results indicate that: (1)
along the East River, dams have greatly altered the natural flow regime, range condition and spatial variability; (2) six
most remarkable indicators of hydrologic alteration induced by dam-construction are rise rate (1.16), 3-day maximum (0.91),
low pulse duration (0.88), January (0.80), July (0.80) and February (0.79) mean flow of the East River during 1952–2002; and
(3) spatiotemporal hydrologic alterations are different among three stations along Easter River. Under the influence of dam
construction in the upstream, the degree of hydrologic changes from Lingxia, Heyuan to Longchuan station increases. This study
reveals that visualization techniques for high-dimensional hydrological datasets together with RVA are beneficial for detecting
spatio-temporal hydrologic changes. 相似文献
16.
AbstractThe lower course of the Acheloos River is an important hydrosystem in Greece, heavily modified by a cascade of four hydropower dams upstream, which is now being extended by two more dams in the upper course. The design of the dams and hydropower facilities that are in operation has not considered any environmental criteria. However, in the last 50 years, numerous methodologies have been proposed to assess the negative impacts of such projects to both the abiotic and biotic environment, and to provide decision support towards establishing appropriate constraints on their operation, typically in terms of minimum flow requirements. In this study, seeking a more environmentally-friendly operation of the hydrosystem, we investigate the outflow policy from the most downstream dam, examining alternative environmental flow approaches. Accounting for data limitations, we recommend the basic flow method, which is parsimonious and suitable for Mediterranean rivers, whose flows exhibit strong variability across seasons. We also show that the wetted perimeter–discharge method, which is an elementary hydraulic approach, provides consistent results, even without using any flow data. Finally, we examine the adaptation of the proposed flow policy (including artificial flooding) to the real-time hydropower generation schedule, and the management of the resulting conflicts.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor M. AcremanCitation Efstratiadis, A., Tegos, A., Varveris, A., and Koutsoyiannis, D., 2014. Assessment of environmental flows under limited data availability: case study of the Acheloos River, Greece. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 731–750. 相似文献
17.
Abstract The Colorado River is one of the most highly regulated and extensively utilized rivers in the world. Total reservoir storage is approximately four times the mean annual runoff of ?17 × 109 m3 year?1. Reservoir storage and regulation have decreased annual peak discharges and hydroelectric power generation has increased daily flow variability. In recent years, the incidental impacts of this development have become apparent especially along the Colorado River through Grand Canyon National Park downstream from Glen Canyon Dam and caused widespread concern. Since the completion of Glen Canyon Dam, the number and size of sand bars, which are used by recreational river runners and form the habitat for native fishes, have decreased substantially. Following an extensive hydrological and geomorphic investigation, an experimental flood release from the Glen Canyon Dam was proposed to determine whether sand bars would be rebuilt by a relatively brief period of flow substantially greater than the normal operating regime. This proposed release, however, was constrained by the Law of the River, the body of law developed over 70 years to control and distribute Colorado River water, the needs of hydropower users and those dependent upon hydropower revenues, and the physical constraints of the dam itself. A compromise was reached following often difficult negotiations and an experimental flood to rebuild sand bars was released in 1996. This flood, and the process by which it came about, gives hope to resolving the difficult and pervasive problem of allocation of water resources among competing interests. 相似文献
18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1068-1078
Abstract The study aims to set and implement environmentally relevant limits for the exploitation of mountain streams in the Kura River basin of Azerbaijan. Such streams represent the preferred spawning grounds for valuable sturgeon of the Caspian Sea, but experience continuously increasing exploitation in the form of water withdrawals for industry and irrigation. Since no detailed environmental flow assessments have been conducted on any of the Kura basin streams, an interim approach is suggested based on minimum flow, referred to as “base environmental minimum”. The latter may be estimated from the unregulated parts of observed or simulated daily flow records. Environmental flow requirements for individual months of an individual year may be calculated using correction factors related to monthly rainfall. Simple relationships are suggested for base environmental flow estimation at ungauged sites, and the implications of river pollution for monthly environmental requirements are examined. Further, definition of environmentally critical periods in a stream is proposed based on a ratio of observed to “environmental” flow as an indicator of environmental stress. It is illustrated that the conjunctive use of several closely located streams for water supply may significantly reduce the duration of, or completely eliminate, environmentally critical periods. The idea of environmentally acceptable areal water withdrawal is formulated, so that the overall approach may be applied for environmentally sustainable water withdrawal management in other small streams. 相似文献
19.
Qiang Zhang Yongqin David Chen Tao Jiang Xiaohong Chen Zufa Liu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):1001-1011
Sound understanding of hydrological alterations and the underlying causes means too much for the water resource management
in the Pearl River Delta. Incision of river channels plays the key role in the hydrological alterations. As for the causes
behind the river channel incision, sand dredging within the river network of the Pearl River Delta is usually assumed to play
the overwhelming role in changes of geometric shapes of the river channels. Based on thorough analysis of well-collected data
of channel geometry, streamflow, sediment load and water level, this study exposes new findings, investigating possible underlying
causes behind the changes of the geometric shapes of the river channels at the Sanshui and Makou station. The results of this
study indicate: (1) different changing properties of the geometric shapes are identified at the Sanshui and Makou stations.
Larger magnitude of changes can be found in the river channel geometry of the cross section at the Sanshui station when compared
to that at the Makou station. Lower water level due to fast riverbed downcutting at the Sanshui station than that at the Makou
station is the major reason why the reallocation of streamflow occurred and hence the hydrological alterations over the Pearl
River Delta; (2) depletion of sediment load as a result of construction of water reservoirs in the middle and upper Pearl
River basin, sand dredging mainly in the Pearl River Delta and heavy floods all contribute much to the incision or deposition
of the riverbed. Regulations of erosion and siltation process of the river channel often alleviate the incision of the river
channels after a relatively long time span, and which makes it even harder to differentiate the factors causing the river
channel incision; (3) the intensifying urbanization in the lower Pearl River basin greatly alters the underlying surface properties,
which has the potential to shorten the recession of the flood event and may cause serious scouring processes and this role
of flash floods in the incision of the river channels can not be ignored. This study is of great scientific and practical
merits in improving human understanding of regulations of river channels and associated consequences with respect to hydrological
alterations and water resource management, particularly in the economically booming region of China. 相似文献
20.
AbstractAn integrated model, combining a surface energy balance system, an LAI-based interception model and a distributed monthly water balance model, was developed to predict hydrological impacts of land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the East River basin, China, with the aid of GIS/RS. The integrated model is a distributed model that not only accounts for spatial variations in basin terrain, rainfall and soil moisture, but also considers spatial and temporal variation of vegetation cover and evapotranspiration (ET), in particular, thus providing a powerful tool for investigating the hydrological impact of LUCC. The model was constructed using spatial data on topography, soil types and vegetation characteristics together with time series of precipitation from 170 stations in the basin. The model was calibrated and validated based on river discharge data from three stations in the basin for 21 years. The calibration and validation results suggested that the model is suitable for application in the basin. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with LAI (leaf area index), while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone that can be described by the surface energy balance and water balance equation. It was found that deforestation would cause an increase in annual runoff and a decrease in annual ET in southern China. Monthly runoff for different land-cover types was found to be inversely related to ET. Also, for most of the scenarios, and particularly for grassland and cropland, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season, indicating that deforestation would cause a significant increase in monthly runoff in that season in the East River basin. These results are important for water resources management and environmental change monitoring.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献