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1.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, \({\hbox {M}}_{\mathrm{w}} = 6.4\) (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration (\({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{a}}\)) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.  相似文献   

2.
Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.  相似文献   

3.
Seismic hazard and site-specific ground motion for typical ports of Gujarat   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  
Economic importance of major ports is well known, and if ports are located in seismically active regions, then site-specific seismic hazard studies are essential to mitigate the seismic risk of the ports. Seismic design of port sites and related structures can be accomplished in three steps that include assessment of regional seismicity, geotechnical hazards, and soil structure interaction analysis. In the present study, site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed to identify the seismic hazard associated with four typical port sites of Gujarat state (bounded by 20°–25.5°N and 68°–75°E) of India viz. Kandla, Mundra, Hazira, and Dahej ports. The primary aim of the study is to develop consistent seismic ground motion for the structures within the four port sites for different three levels of ground shaking, i.e., operating level earthquake (72 years return period), contingency level earthquake (CLE) (475 year return period), and maximum considered earthquake (2,475 year return period). The geotechnical characterization for each port site is carried out using available geotechnical data. Shear wave velocities of the soil profile are estimated from SPT blow counts using various empirical formulae. Seismicity of the Gujarat region is modeled through delineating the 40 fault sources based on the seismotectonic setting. The Gujarat state is divided into three regions, i.e., Kachchh, Saurashtra, and Mainland Gujarat, and regional recurrence relations are assigned in the form of Gutenberg-Richter parameters in order to calculate seismic hazard associated with each port site. The horizontal component of ground acceleration for three levels of ground shaking is estimated by using different ground motion attenuation relations (GMAR) including one country-specific GMAR for Peninsular India. Uncertainty in seismic hazard computations is handled by using logic tree approach to develop uniform hazard spectra for 5% damping which are consistent with the specified three levels of ground shaking. Using recorded acceleration time history of Bhuj 2001 earthquake as the input time motion, synthetic time histories are generated to match the developed designed response spectra to study site-specific responses of port sites during different levels of ground shaking. It is observed that the Mundra and Kandla port sites are most vulnerable sites for seismic hazard as estimated CLE ground motion is in order of 0.79 and 0.48 g for Mundra and Kandla port sites, respectively. Hazira and Dahej port sites have comparatively less hazard with estimated CLE ground motion of 0.17 and 0.11 g, respectively. The ground amplification factor is observed at all sites which ranges from 1.3 to 2.0 for the frequency range of 1.0–2.7 Hz. The obtained spectral accelerations for the three levels of ground motions and obtained transfer functions for each port sites are compared with provisions made in Indian seismic code IS:1893-Part 1 (2002). The outcome of present study is recommended for further performance-based design to evaluate the seismic response of the port structures with respect to various performance levels.  相似文献   

4.
The development of the new seismic hazard map of metropolitan Tehran is based on probabilistic seismic hazard computation using the non-Poisson recurrence time model. For this model, two maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of the region in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines. They display the non-Poisson probabilistic estimates of peak ground accelerations over bedrock for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance in 50 years. To carry out the non-Poisson seismic hazard analysis, appropriate distributions of interoccurrence times of earthquakes were used for the seismotectonic provinces which the study region is located and then the renewal process was applied. In order to calculate the seismic hazard for different return periods in the probabilistic procedure, the study area encompassed by the 49.5–54.5°E longitudes and 34–37°N latitudes was divided into 0.1° intervals generating 1,350 grid points. PGA values for this region are estimated to be 0.30–0.32 and 0.16–0.17 g for 10 and 63 % probability of exceedance, respectively, in 50 years for bedrock condition.  相似文献   

5.
This paper presents a major extension of seismic vulnerability research project on the site of Trako??an Castle based on the initial horizontal-to-vertical-spectral-ratio (HVSR) results from Stanko et al. (2016). The estimated HVSR site frequencies and HV amplification at Trako??an Castle can only be used as an indication of the initial soil site frequency and amplification, so-called natural soil model, corresponding to the subsoil profile without the influence of an earthquake. The equivalent-linear (EQL) site response analysis has been carried out for different earthquake scenarios for a maximum input rock peak ground acceleration (PGAROCK) that corresponds to return periods of 95 (0.08 g), 475 (0.18 g) and 1000 years (0.31 g). The aim of the research is to evaluate structural seismic design responses and to determine type and degree of damage caused by local site effect, which is the result of an alluvial basin and topographic influences. The main objective of this research is the formation of local microseismic zones based on an EQL analysis: surface spectral acceleration and amplification maps at the predominant frequency. Based on the HVSR frequency response of the core structure of Trako??an Castle and the Tower itself (fundamental and higher frequency modes), maps of surface spectral acceleration and soil amplification at different frequencies (3, 5 and 10 Hz) are developed for different input PGAROCK levels (0.08, 0.18 and 0.31 g) to evaluate seismic response of the Castle. Observed amplifications are correlated with ground motion polarization and directionality of the ground motion from the alluvial basin to the hilltop. Shortening of predominant frequencies (lengthening of the period), particularly in the alluvial basin, has been observed with higher input PGAROCK in the EQL analysis. This effect is not manifested in the Trako??an hill, and predominant frequencies match HVSR frequencies. The use of certain geophysical survey methods at historical sites is a big problem, because terrain features (e.g. steep hills, mountains, ridges, slopes, cliffs) create lack of space and make it impossible to carry out geophysical investigation. Microtremor measurements at historical sites can overcome this limitation and provide local seismic response and vulnerability behaviour of historical monuments without destroying their authenticity. Also, computational modelling can greatly improve the results. The EQL site response analysis on the site of Trako??an Castle has confirmed and improved the results of seismic response and vulnerability based on HVSR method.  相似文献   

6.
A. Golara 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):567-577
Seismic hazard maps are widely used for engineering design, land-use planning, and disaster mitigation. The development of the new seismic hazard map of Iran with regard to the specification of Iranian high-pressure gas network is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using the historical and new earthquakes data, geology, tectonics, fault activity, and seismic zone models in Iran. The map displays the probabilistic estimates of peak ground acceleration for the return period of 2,475 year (2 % probability in 50 years). The results presented in this study will provide the basis for the preparation of risk map, the estimation of insurance premiums, finding best paths for future pipelines, planning, and relocating lifeline facilities especially for interconnected infrastructures.  相似文献   

7.
This paper presents the evaluation of seismic hazard at the site of Algiers (capital of Algeria). In order to implement earthquake-resistant design codes, it is usually necessary to know the maximum dynamic load which a particular structure might experience during its economic life, or alternatively, the most probable return period of a specified design load. The evaluation of the seismic hazard at the site, based on peak ground motion acceleration and using Cornell's method and Benouar's earthquake Maghreb catalogue, in terms of return period, probability of exceedance of PGA, design ground motion and a response spectrum, is carried out for the City of Algiers and its surroundings. The response spectrum for Algiers presented in this paper is the first one realized in Algeria using revised Algerian data.  相似文献   

8.
The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s2 (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.  相似文献   

9.
The site amplification functions at 48 sites of NCR have been estimated in this study using the waveforms of locally recorded 23 earthquakes. Due to the absence of a suitable reference site in the region, the widely used horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique has been used for this purpose. The maps showing the spatial distribution of predominant frequencies and the site amplifications at different frequencies corresponding to the natural frequencies of the different-storey buildings have been presented. The predominant frequencies in general are found to be in the range 2.5–7.5 Hz with an average of 4.4 Hz for the region having older alluvium sediments and in the range 1.1–6.4 Hz with an average of 3.3 Hz for the region with the younger alluvium deposits. The average value of the site amplifications for the frequency band 3.0–10.0 Hz is in the range 2.0–5.3 for the sites with significant soil cover, while the spectral amplification corresponding to the predominant frequency varies from 2.5 to 7.5 at most of the sites. The spectral amplification level lies in the range 2.0–3.0 for the sites with less or no sediment cover. The spectral amplification levels presented for the different-storey buildings may be used for the mitigation of seismic hazard in the region. The estimated site amplification functions may be used in the simulation of the site-specific strong ground motions and therefore useful for the evaluation of seismic hazard of a region.  相似文献   

10.
Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s.  相似文献   

11.
A contemporary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) study for Bulgaria and the surrounding Balkan area is performed under constraints of a newly developed, fit-for-purpose historical earthquake catalogue and the theory of extreme values. Sensitivity analyses are first adopted as preparatory reviews on subsets of the adopted data to determine suitable values for the constraints of cut-off magnitude threshold, sample extreme interval and start year of catalogue data to impose on the parent database for both the full region considered as well as significant urban centres within it. Maximum estimates are then determined for magnitude recurrence hazard using Gumbel’s third asymptotic extreme values distribution for return periods of 50 and 100 years, and also these time intervals at 90 % probability of not being exceeded (PNBE). Gumbel’s first asymptotic extreme values distribution is also used with carefully selected, geographically relevant ground motion models for peak horizontal ground acceleration, PGA(h), and peak horizontal ground velocity, PGV(h), for the same return periods. The former provides direct comparison with the current EUROCODE 8 anti-seismic building code standard promoted across Europe, the previous GSHAP and SESAME hazard mapping projects as well as a number of recent studies. Sofia is forecast an upper bound magnitude of 7.33 M w (±0.78) compared with 7.31 M w (±0.55) for the full Balkan extent and 7.24 M w (±0.70) for the political triple junction area of southwest Bulgaria, viz., Bulgaria, Greece and The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Sofia is also forecast a 475-year return period (equivalent to a 50-year return period at 90 % PNBE) magnitude of 7.27 M w, with an equivalent PGA (the standard EUROCODE 8 metric) of 156 cm s?2 and PGV of 13 cm s?1.  相似文献   

12.
The Gulf of Aqaba is considered seismically as one of the most active zones of the Dead Sea Transform region. The main shock of the 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake sequence is considered as the largest shock in the (surface wave magnitude Ms?=?7.2) since the sixteenth century. The present study is a trial to detect the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Nuweiba site. Data used for this study was a combination of both historical and recent instrumental data. Results of the hazard assessment, expressed as in the worst case scenario, reveal that Nuweiba is exposed to the occurrence of a maximum credible earthquake of magnitude $ m_{{\max }} ~ = ~7.4 \pm 0.31 $ , at hypocentral distance of 15.6?±?10 km. For structure with the return period of 100 years, with a 90% probability of exceedance, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude (ML) is 5.9 in this lifetime. The possibility of the maximum peak ground acceleration at the Nuweiba site is 0.41 g. Results of the hazard assessment can be used as an input data to assess the seismic risk for site of interest.  相似文献   

13.
This article presents probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of northern Pakistan region carried out to produce macro-seismic hazard maps for the region that define new regional ground motion design parameters for 95-, 475-, 975- and 2475-year return period earthquakes as regional contour maps and horizontal uniform hazard at important cities. The Cornell–McGuire approach (Cornell in Bull Seismol Soc Am 58(05):1583–1606, 1968; McGuire in FORTRAN computer program for seismic risk analysis. US Geological Survey, Open file Report, 76-6768, 1976) is used to carry out the analyses at 0.1° rectangular grid. The seismotectonic model of the region used in analysis consists of shallow and deep area zones differentiated based on the focal depths of the earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue compiled and used in the analysis is a composite catalogue composed of 19,373 events. Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used are calibrated using goodness-of-fitness measures and visual inspection with local strong motion data. Epistemic uncertainty in the GMPEs is taken into account through the logic tree approach. Comparison of ground motions due to deep earthquakes is made for the first time for the region. The comparison between ground motion due to shallow and deep earthquakes indicates that the seismic hazard would be underestimated if the deep earthquakes are excluded. Ground motion values obtained in this study considering all the earthquakes suggest ground motions are dominant towards the north east of the region. The proposed study indicates that the ground motion hazard values suggested by the current Building Code of Pakistan underestimate the seismic hazard. Final results of this study are in close agreement with the recent studies on the region.  相似文献   

14.
Nuclear power plants are designed to prevent the hazardous effects of the earthquakes and any external events to keep the safety of the plant. Ninety-one shallow seismic refraction profiles were performed to determine shear wave velocity of the engineering layers at the site of El Dabaa area that is situated to the northern coastline of Egypt for seismic hazard microzonation evaluation according to hazard index values. A microzonation is a procedure of delineating an area into individual zones having different ranks of numerous seismic hazards. This will aid in classifying areas of high seismic risk which is vigorous for industrial design of nuclear structures. The site response analysis requires the characterization of subsurface materials considering local subsurface profiles of the site. Site classification of the area under investigation was undertaken using P- and S-waves and available borehole data. The studied nuclear power plant site has been characterized as per NEHRP site classification using an average velocity of transverse wave (V s 30 ) of depth 30 m which acquired from seismic survey. This site was categorized into two site classes: the major one is “site class B,” and the minor one is “site class A.” The attenuation coefficient, the damping ratio and the liquefaction potential are geotechnical parameters which were derived from P- and S-waves, and have their major effects on the seismic hazard contribution. 1D ground response analysis was carried out in the places of seismic profiles inside the site for estimating the amount of ground quaking using peak ground acceleration (PGA), site amplification, predominant frequency and spectral accelerations on the surface of ground by the DEEPSOIL software package. Seven factors (criteria) deliberated to assess the earthquake hazard index map are: (1) the peak ground acceleration at the bedrock, (2) the amplification of the site, (3) the liquefaction potential, (4) the main frequency of the earthquake signal, (5) the average V s of the first 30 m from the ground surface, (6) the depth to the groundwater and (7) the depth to the bedrock. These features were exemplified in normalized maps after uniting them to 0–1 scores according to some criteria by the minimum and maximum values as linear scaling points. Multi-criteria evaluation is an application of multi-criteria decision analysis theory that used for developing a seismic hazard index map for a nuclear power plant site at El Dabaa area in ArcGIS 10.1 software. Two models of decision making were used in this work for seismic hazard microzonation. The analytic hierarchy process model was applied to conduct the relative weights of the criteria by pairwise comparison using Expert Choice Software. An earthquake hazard index map was combined using Weighted Linear Combination model of the raster weighted overlay tool of ArcGIS 10.1. The results indicated that most of the study site of the nuclear power plant is a region of low to moderate hazard; its values are ranging between 0.2 and 0.4.  相似文献   

15.
Any earthquake event is associated with a rupture mechanism at the source, propagation of seismic waves through underlying rock and finally these waves travel through the soil layers to the particular site of interest. The bedrock motion is significantly modified at the ground surface due to the presence of local soil layers above the bedrock beneath the site of interest. The estimation of the amplifications in ground response due to the local soil sites is a complex problem to the designers and the problem is more important for mega cities like Mumbai in India, where huge population may get affected due to devastations of earthquake. In the present study, the effect of local soil sites in modifying ground response is studied by performing one dimensional equivalent-linear ground response analysis for some of the typical Mumbai soil sites. Field borelog data of some typical sites in Mumbai city viz. Mangalwadi site, Walkeswar site, BJ Marg near Pandhari Chawl site are considered in this study. The ground responses are observed for range of input motions and the results are presented in terms of surface acceleration time history, ratio of shear stress to vertical effective stress versus time, acceleration response spectrum, Fourier amplitude ratio versus frequency etc. The typical amplifications of ground accelerations considering four strong ground motions with wide variation of low to high MHA, frequency contents and durations are obtained. Results show that MHA, bracketed duration, frequency content have significant effects on the amplification of seismic accelerations for typical 2001 Bhuj motion. The peak ground acceleration amplification factors are found to be about 2.50 for Mangalwadi site, 2.60 for Walkeswar site and 3.45 for BJ Marg site using 2001 Bhuj input motion. The response spectrum along various soil layers are obtained which will be useful for designers for earthquake resistant design of geotechnical structures in Mumbai for similar sites in the absence of site specific data.  相似文献   

16.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the sultanate of Oman   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
This study presents the results of the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the framework of logic tree for Oman. The earthquake catalogue was homogenized, declustered, and used to define seismotectonic source model that characterizes the seismicity of Oman. Two seismic source models were used in the current study; the first consists of 26 seismic source zones, while the second is expressing the alternative view that seismicity is uniform along the entire Makran and Zagros zones. The recurrence parameters for all the seismogenic zones were determined using the doubly bounded exponential distribution except the zones of Makran, which were modelled using the characteristic distribution. Maximum earthquakes were determined and the horizontal ground accelerations in terms of geometric mean were calculated using ground-motion prediction relationships developed based upon seismic data obtained from active tectonic environments similar to those surrounding Oman. The alternative seismotectonic source models, maximum magnitude, and ground-motion prediction relationships were weighted and used to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Hazard maps at rock sites were produced for 5?% damped spectral acceleration (SA) values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0 and 2.0?s spectral periods as well as peak ground acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 475 and 2,475?years. The highest hazard is found in Khasab City with maximum SA at 0.2?s spectral period reaching 243 and 397?cm/s2 for return periods 475 and 2,475 years, respectively. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the choice of seismic source model and the ground-motion prediction equation influences the results most.  相似文献   

17.
In recent years, Iraq has experienced an increase in seismic activity, especially, near the east boundary with Iran. Previous studies present their results in terms of PGA and for return periods of 500 years and less, and other studies not continued to include the whole PSHA process whereas some recent studies continued to include the whole PSHA process using earthquakes data till 2009 including dependent events. This study includes two main stages, the first is collecting the earthquakes records including the recent events till the end of March 2016 and applying data processing to get the net catalog to independent events. The second stage is applying the steps of PSHA method. Matlab programs have been built to execute these two stages and to convert the results of PSHA computations into contours of 5% damping PGA and spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s for a return period of 2475 years, and for rock sites. Also, spectral acceleration against period has been presented for main cities. Also, the PGA map, for a return period of 475 years, has been plotted and then prepared together with similar maps of neighbor countries in one map for comparison. In general, this comparison indicates the similarity in behavior but, the values reveal a relative agreement and they are between Turkish and Iranian values.  相似文献   

18.
A probabilistic procedure was applied to assess seismic hazard for the sites of five Greek cities (Athens, Heraklion, Patras, Thessaloniki and Volos) using peak ground acceleration as the hazard parameter. The methodology allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or a combination of both. It has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at a given site and does not require any specification of seismic sources or/and seismic zones. A new relation for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration was employed for the shallow seismicity in Greece. The computations involved the area- and site-specific parts. When assessing magnitude recurrence for the areas surrounding the five cities, the maximum magnitude, mmax, was estimated using a recently derived equation. The site-specific results were expressed as probabilities that a given peak ground acceleration value will be exceeded at least once during a time interval of 1, 50 and 100 years at the sites of the cities. They were based on the maximum peak ground acceleration values computed by assuming the occurrence of the strongest possible earthquake (of magnitude mmax) at a very short distance from the site and using the mean value obtained with the help of the attenuation law. This gave 0.24 g for Athens, 0.53 g for Heraklion (shallow) and 0.39 g Heraklion (intermediate-depth seismicity), 0.30 g for Patras, 0.35 g for Thessaloniki and 0.30 g for Volos. In addition, the probabilities of exceedance of the estimated maximum peak ground acceleration values were calculated for the sites. The standard deviation of the new Greek attenuation law demonstrates the uncertainty and large variation of predicted peak ground acceleration values.  相似文献   

19.
Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.  相似文献   

20.
Acceleration and velocity data of large earthquakes recorded by the Mexican National Broadband Seismological Network were used to generate isoseismal maps for Mexico. The seismic data consist of 99 events recorded at 27 seismic stations located in the southern and northern regions of Mexico from 2004 to 2009. The magnitude (Mw) of these events ranged from 4.1 to 7.1. Peak ground velocity values (PGV) and peak ground accelerations (PGA) were estimated, and velocity-derived peak ground accelerations (PGAv) were calculated. No important differences between PGAv and PGA values were found; thus, both parameters were used in the isoseismal determination. The generated synthetic isoseismal maps were compared with those from an existing catalog for large earthquakes in Mexico. Using empiric relations between PGA and MMI (modified Mercalli intensity) and PGV and MMI, the obtained simulated intensity maps showed similar behavior to those reported in the catalog. The results indicate that the PGAv values can be used to determine intensities when acceleration records (PGA) are unavailable.  相似文献   

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