共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 327 毫秒
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城镇天气预报报文自动处理及自动评分系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
业务质量评定系统是减轻业务人员劳动，实现质量高效评定的现代化手段。贵港市气象局在城镇天气预报列入日常业务考核后，开发出一个基于WINDOWS平台的“城镇天气预报报文自动处理和自动评分系统”，使预报质量评定和业务管理走上了自动化运行轨道。系统设计合理、操作简单、功能齐全、界面友好 。 相似文献
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天气预报质量评估监控系统的研究与开发 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对人工方法评定天气预报质量的弊端,荆门市气象科技人员从天气预报业务实际出发,研制并开发出一套天气预报质量评估与监控系统。简单介绍了该系统的开发环境和设计思路,着重阐述了系统的主要功能。最后指出了系统的五大设计特点。 相似文献
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短期天气预报评分自动处理系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
今年年初,我台在IBM-PC微型计算机上研制成了短期天气预报评分自动处理系统,现已投入使用.这个自动系统的实现,为我们准确地对预报质量进行评定提供了有力工具.它帮助我们提高了工作效率,减少了不必要的繁重劳动,从而能把主要精力投入到有效的工作中去. 一、设计思想 1.对评分规定的考虑按评分文件规定,每月需上报的短期预报质量项目是: 相似文献
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泰安市天气预报质量评定系统 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为实现天气预报质量评定、统计、查询及预报质量检查自动化，研制了泰安市天气预报质量评定计算机软件系统。本文对系统的构成、功能、主要技术方法，以及预报评定规则等进行了总结和介绍。 相似文献
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根据中国气象局制定的《重要天气预报质量评分办法（试行）》，我们设计和制作了一个县站短期重要天气预报质量评定系统，该系统采用人机对话方式运行，具有操作简便，评定迅速的特点。 相似文献
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交互式预报辅助制作系统（Interactive Forecast Preparation System)是美国国家气象局（NWS）近年来列为重点开发的研究项目之一。它也是高级交互式气象处理系统（AWIPS）的重要组成部分。IFPS中与交互式预报准备有关的技术研究和开发已有10多年的时间。通过人机交互，IFPS可以帮助预报员更加有效地进行预报制作和发布工作。作者在介绍IFPS的基础上，针对其中采用的一些交互式技术方法进行了分析和论述，有助于了解美国国家气象局在预报业务软件开发方面的成果，也可为我国开发研制新一代天气预报业务流程提供借鉴。 相似文献
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介绍了《山西省大同市专业专项气象预报系统》的研制及应用,包括系统主要技术要点,主要内容、系统运行情况,还介绍了专业专项气象指标的分析应用及用数值产品为基础多种预报方法相结合制作各种专业专项气象预报。 相似文献
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S. S. Vaidya 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2007,95(1-2):15-26
Summary Simulation studies have been carried out for two weather systems namely; a pre-monsoon thunderstorm over east coast of India
and a weak cyclonic circulation associated with feeble low pressure area over south peninsular India. Two sets of forecast
results are obtained: one using Advanced Regional Prediction System Model and other using Weather Research and Forecasting
Model. The model performances are compared by examining the predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure, wind, moisture
fields and rainfall. The rainfall prediction is assessed qualitatively by comparing the spatial distribution with satellite
cloud images and quantitatively by comparing rainfall rates with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission products and/or the observed
station values reported in Indian Daily Weather Reports. It is found that in case of idealized simulation of thunderstorm,
Advanced Regional Prediction System Model has well predicted the spatial distribution of rainfall which is consistent with
the clouding in satellite cloud images. It also has simulated the diverging winds at lower levels associated with downdraft
during mature/dissipation stage of thunderstorm. Weather Research and Forecasting Model failed to predict these features.
In case of a weak cyclonic circulation simulation experiment, Advanced Regional Prediction System model is able to simulate
the rainy area better compared to those produced by Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Both models failed to produce
observed heavy precipitation rates. 相似文献
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在城镇精细化预报制作和传输特点及需求分析的基础上,阐述了地市级城镇天气预报制作与传输系统的设计思路、功能实现和系统应用.系统选取PowerBuilder 7.0开发环境,PowerScript可视化编程语言,在Windows 2000操作系统上研制而成.由人机交互、预报自动传输和预报查询3个子系统构成,可制作城镇精细化、短时、评分、城区、城区上下班等多项预报,可随时查询利用该系统制作和传输到本地服务器上的各项预报,可用人工与自动两种方式向省局传输所需的预报.该系统为省级以下气象台的预报员提供了一个可靠、高效的预报制作、传输平台,为预报服务人员提供了一个方便、快捷的预报查询平台. 相似文献
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GRAPES-MESO模式不同空间分辨率对中国夏季降水预报的影响分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
国家气象中心业务运行的中尺度数值预报系统GRAPES-MESO（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System mesoscale model）在升级到4.0版本后采用了与以往版本不同的三维空间分辨率设置,本文通过计算精度分析、个例分析及统计分析的方法详细阐述了两者水平分辨率和不等距垂直分层的差异,并由此深入分析了不同模式三维空间分辨率对中国夏季汛期降水预报的影响。主要结论表明,GRAPES-MESO预报系统4.0版本在水平分辨率提高到10 km并同时使用更为合理的加密垂直分层设置后,不仅提高了计算精度和计算稳定性,同时仍能满足业务预报的时效要求。对个例降水特征的分析结果表明,提高模式空间分辨率可以在一定程度上改善对降水中心的预报,但对降水落区的预报改进较为有限。对2012年7月整月批量试验的统计检验结果表明,月平均技巧评分总体变化不大,但对逐日大到暴雨评分提高较大,通过各气象要素统计检验分析可以认为,模式空间分辨率提高的主要作用是通过降低了中低层高度场、温度场和水平风场的误差,改进了对流层中层环流背景场以及对流层低层降水直接触发系统的强度预报,从而能够提高大到暴雨的降水评分。 相似文献
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A new way to predict forecast skill 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992. 相似文献
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The global model analysis has significant impact on the mesoscale model forecast as global model provides initial condition (IC) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) for the mesoscale model. With this objective, four operational global model analyses prepared from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) are used daily to generate IC and LBC of the mesoscale model during 13th December 2012 to 13th January 2013. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.4, broadly used for short-range weather forecast, is adopted in this study as mesoscale model. After initial comparison of global model analyses with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, daily WRF model forecasts initialized from global model analyses are compared with in situ observations and AIRS profiles. Results demonstrated that forecasts initialized from the ECMWF analysis are closer to AIRS-retrieved profiles and in situ observations compared to other global model analyses. No major differences are occurred in the WRF model forecasts when initialized from the NCEP GDAS and GFS analyses, whereas these two analyses have different spatial resolutions and observations used for assimilation. Maximum RMSD is seen in the NCMRWF analysis-based experiments when compared with AIRS-retrieved profiles. The rainfall prediction is also improved when WRF model is initialized from the ECMWF analysis compared to the NCEP and NCMRWF analyses. 相似文献