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1.
Flood risk perception in lands “protected” by 100-year levees 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Under the US National Flood Insurance Program, lands behind levees certified as protecting against the 100-year flood are
considered to be out of the officially recognized “floodplain.” However, such lands are still vulnerable to flooding that
exceeds the design capacity of the levees—known as residual risk. In the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of California, we encounter
the curious situation that lands below sea level are considered not “floodplain” and open to residential and commercial development
because they are “protected” by levees. Residents are not informed that they are at risk from floods, because officially they
are not in the floodplain. We surveyed residents of a recently constructed subdivision in Stockton, California, to assess
their awareness of their risk of flooding. Median household income in the development was $80,000, 70% of respondents had
a 4-year university degree or higher, and the development was ethnically mixed. Despite the levels of education and income,
they did not understand the risk of being flooded. Given that literature shows informed individuals are more likely to take
preventative measures than uninformed individuals, our results have important implications for flood policy. Climate-change-induced
sea-level rise exacerbates the problems posed by increasing urbanization and aging infrastructure, increasing the threat of
catastrophic flooding in the California Delta and in flood-prone areas worldwide. 相似文献
2.
The missing link between flood risk awareness and preparedness: findings from case studies in an Alpine Region 总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1
The low risk awareness of the residents living in flood-prone areas is usually considered among the main causes of their low preparedness, which in turns generates inadequate response to natural disasters. In this paper, we challenge this assumption by reporting on the results of a sociological research in four communities exposed to flood risk in the Eastern Italian Alps. The research design included semi-structured interviews and focus groups with key local stakeholders and a standardized questionnaire submitted to 400 residents. Results revealed that residents felt both slightly worried about flood risk and slightly prepared to face an event. Considerable differences were found between the evaluations of individual subjects as opposed to overall communities. There was also a clear discrepancy between the actual adoption of household preparatory measures and the willingness to take self-protection actions. Overall, the risk awareness was significantly higher among those residents who had been personally affected by a flood in the past, were living in isolated (vs. urban) communities, in the most risky areas or had a lower level of trust in local authorities. The improvement of residents?? knowledge about their environment and the residual risk seemed to be crucial to increase risk awareness, and the same was true for the strengthening of local support networks to foster preparedness. The link between risk awareness and preparedness was not at all straightforward. Results revealed instead the complexity of residents?? perspectives, attitudes, behaviours and decisions about risk-related issues. 相似文献
3.
Geraldine M. Li 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(3):365-382
Different individuals and groups perceive risk differently. This can significantly affect risk management and mitigation practices
and requirements. This paper presents findings from a study of tropical cyclone risk perceptions in the city of Darwin in
the Northern Territory of Australia. Primary in-depth interview data and other secondary data are analysed, focussing in particular
on wind damage, storm surge and life safety risk perceptions of residents since Cyclone Tracy, which impacted in 1974, and
perceptions of future climate change as it relates to tropical cyclone risk. The analysis reveals that a number of perceptions
prevail. In particular, the study reveals a wide difference of perceptions between short-term residents (Group 1) and long-term
and expert residents (Group 2) in relation to wind damage, storm surge and life safety risk. It also reveals a large division
between laypersons (Group 3) and expert residents’ (Group 4) perceptions of climate change risk as it relates to tropical
cyclone risk. The author recommends that flexible, multiple and integrative management and mitigation approaches are required
to deal with such different perceptions and divisions in the resident population. 相似文献
4.
Assessing flood risk associated with waste disposals: methodology,application and uncertainties 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Waste disposal sites are mostly located in lowland areas close to residential areas inducing a long-term risk of potential
environmental contamination due to flooding. During recent flood events, these areas were reportedly exposed to inundations.
This paper aims to develop a qualitative approach to assess flood risk associated with flood-prone waste disposals at the
basis of Austrian case studies. Risk is investigated as a function of the probability of an event and the consequences of
that event. The presented assessment approach is characterized as qualitative as consequences are expressed in risk categories
but not in expected (monetary) losses. The probability of inundation, the hydrodynamic impacts on considered waste disposal
sites and the expected consequences to the environment (potential emissions of hazardous substances) were linked. Derived
risk categories from “minor risk” to “serious risk” were used to express flood risk to environmental goods like groundwater
bodies, nature reserves and recreation areas. A screening of 1,064 waste disposals yielded roughly 30% of sites located within
or close to flood risk zones. Three representative case study areas were selected and investigated in detail by applying 2D
hydrodynamic models to calculate flow depths and shear stress and by developing emission scenarios. The hydrodynamic modelling
covered three hydrologic scenarios with statistical recurrence intervals of 30, 100 and 300 years. Derived leaching scenarios
ranged from minor emissions up to total erosion of the waste disposal site. Based on four parameters representing flood characteristics,
the susceptibility to erosion (flow velocity and shear stress) and the estimated leaching behaviour, a flood risk evaluation
matrix (FREM) was elaborated. The study outlines that in case of flooding the hazardous emissions could lead to partly tremendous
impacts on environmental goods. Identified uncertainties associated with considered processes were considerably high. However,
the developed qualitative approach provides a decision support aid to identify waste disposals with imminent risk for humans
and the environment. 相似文献
5.
Coping with floods in the city of Dresden,Germany 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
During August 2002 and again in March 2005 as well as in April 2006 the city of Dresden was hit by floods. The flood in 2002
was an extreme event, only comparable to flooding in 1862 and 1890 in Dresden. The flood discharge in 2006 was the second
highest discharge since 1940 at the Dresden gauge although its return period was only about 15 years. This special situation
enables a comparison of the preparedness of authorities and households in the flood endangered city of Dresden in 2002 after
a long period of relatively low flood discharges and in 2005/2006 just a few years after a severe flood event. Before August
2002, the flood risk awareness and flood preparedness of authorities and households in Dresden was low. The inundation channels
and the Elbe riverbed had not been maintained well. Just 13% of the households had undertaken building precautionary measures.
The severe flood situation as well as the low flood preparedness led to tremendous damage, e.g., losses to residential buildings
amounted to 304 million €. After 2002, the municipal authorities in Dresden developed a new flood management concept and many
households were motivated to undertake precautionary measures. Building precautionary measures had been actually undertaken
by 67% of the households before the floods in 2005 and 2006. Flood damage was significantly lower, due to the less severe
flood situations and the much better preparedness. It is an important challenge for the future to keep preparedness at a high
level also without recurrent flood experiences. 相似文献
6.
A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4
In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk.
This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding
(i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working
group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various
consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological,
hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic
models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process
of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures
that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster
chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the
basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage
was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on
the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood
risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision
support tool for flood management. 相似文献
7.
Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies
to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people
are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this
article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how
everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit
the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their
risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health
conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity
and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood
management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen
adaptive capacity to present and future floods. 相似文献
8.
Kougkoulos Ioannis Merad Myriam Cook Simon J. Andredakis Ioannis 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1959-1980
France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this study, we use multiple sources (insurance datasets, scientific articles, satellite data, and grey literature) to (1) analyze modern flood disasters in the PACA Region; (2) discuss the efficiency of French public policy instruments; (3) perform a SWOT analysis of French flood risk governance (FRG); and (4) suggest improvements to the FRG framework. Despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region have not lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations are observed after repeated catastrophic events. Relative exposure to flooding has increased in France, apparently due to intense urbanization of flood-prone land. We suggest that the French FRG could benefit from the following improvements: (1) regular updates of risk prevention plans and tools; (2) the adoption of a build back better logic; (3) taking undeclared damages into account in flood risk models; (4) better communication between the actors at the different steps of each cycle (preparation, control, organization, etc.); (5) better communication between those responsible for risk prevention, emergency management, and disaster recovery; (6) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin; and (7) increased participation in FRG from local populations.
相似文献9.
Ibidun O. Adelekan 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(1):215-231
The paper presents the result of a vulnerability assessment of urban dwellers to a major flood hazard in Abeokuta, southwestern
Nigeria in July 2007. This was achieved by means of questionnaire survey administered to 248 flood area residents. Flood vulnerability
was assessed by examining exposure, susceptibility, and coping indicators in the study area. Findings of the study show that
although about 50% of respondents had experienced floods, in Abeokuta or elsewhere in the past, majority (66%) did not anticipate
a flood event of such magnitude to occur despite its location on a flood plain and, therefore, were unprepared for such hazard.
Pre-warning of the flood event was generally lacking among flood area residents as only 8% of respondents indicated pre-warning,
which was based on personal observations. Response to the flood hazard was mainly reactive for both private and public agents
as flood risk reduction measures were not in place. 相似文献
10.
Flooding is one of the major natural hazards in Taiwan, and most of the low-lying areas in Taiwan are flood-prone areas. In
order to minimize loss of life and economic losses, a detailed and comprehensive decision-making tool is necessary for both
flood control planning and emergency service operations. The objectives of this research were (i) to develop a hierarchical
structure through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide preferred options for flood risk analysis, (ii) to map the
relative flood risk using the geographic information system (GIS), and (iii) to integrate these two methodologies and apply
them to one urban and one semi-rural area in central Taiwan. Fushin Township and the floodplain of Fazih River (1 km on either
side of the channel) in Taichung City were selected for this study. In this paper, the flood risk is defined as the relative
flood risk due to broken dikes or the failure of stormwater drainage systems. Seven factors were considered in relation to
the failure of stormwater drainage, and five to that of broken dikes. Following well-defined procedures, flood maps were drawn
based on the data collected from expert responses to a questionnaire, the field survey, satellite images, and documents from
flood management agencies. The relative values of flood risk are presented using a 200-m grid for the two study areas. It
is concluded that integration of AHP and GIS in flood risk assessment can provide useful detailed information for flood risk
management, and the method can be easily applied to most areas in Taiwan where required data sets are readily available. 相似文献
11.
This article evaluates some of the factors which limit the human benefits of hazard warnings, with specific reference to flood
warnings, and we conclude by suggesting ways of enhancing these benefits. We focus mainly upon the economic benefits generated
by flood damage savings by households that warnings facilitate; health effects of flooding and flood warnings; and the effects
of warnings on loss of life and physical injury. Our results, based partly upon surveys of flooded households, reveal that
economic benefits are currently more limited than we previously thought, but that for several reasons these benefits are likely
to be under-estimated. We argue that the intangible benefits to public health, safety and security must also be taken into
account in decisions about investment in flood warnings. In England and Wales, the public’s response to flood warnings is
currently low and is a key benefit-limiting factor which could begin to undermine a recent major shift in national flood risk
management policy towards a more people-centred, portfolio approach in which changing human behaviour is viewed as important.
Using a trans-disciplinary approach, we discuss the evidence and literature surrounding this poor response, and suggest a
number of ways in which the issue may be addressed in future. 相似文献
12.
Applied flood risk analyses, especially in urban areas, very often pose the question how detailed the analysis needs to be
in order to give a realistic figure of the expected risk. The methods used in research and practical applications range from
very basic approaches with numerous simplifying assumptions up to very sophisticated, data and calculation time demanding
applications both on the hazard and on the vulnerability part of the risk. In order to shed some light on the question of
required model complexity in flood risk analyses and outputs sufficiently fulfilling the task at hand, a number of combinations
of models of different complexity both on the hazard and on the vulnerability side were tested in a case study. The different
models can be organized in a model matrix of different complexity levels: On the hazard side, the approaches/models selected
were (A) linear interpolation of gauge water levels and intersection with a digital elevation model (DEM), (B) a mixed 1D/2D
hydraulic model with simplifying assumptions (LISFLOOD-FP) and (C) a Saint-Venant 2D zero-inertia hyperbolic hydraulic model
considering the built environment and infrastructure. On the vulnerability side, the models used for the estimation of direct
damage to residential buildings are in order of increasing complexity: (I) meso-scale stage-damage functions applied to CORINE
land cover data, (II) the rule-based meso-scale model FLEMOps+ using census data on the municipal building stock and CORINE
land cover data and (III) a rule-based micro-scale model applied to a detailed building inventory. Besides the inundation
depths, the latter two models consider different building types and qualities as well as the level of private precaution and
contamination of the floodwater. The models were applied in a municipality in east Germany, Eilenburg. It suffered extraordinary
damage during the flood of August 2002, which was well documented as were the inundation extent and depths. These data provide
an almost unique data set for the validation of flood risk analyses. The analysis shows that the combination of the 1D/2D
model and the meso-scale damage model FLEMOps+ performed best and provide the best compromise between data requirements, simulation
effort, and an acceptable accuracy of the results. The more detailed approaches suffered from complex model set-up, high data
requirements, and long computation times. 相似文献
13.
Flood disasters and its consequent damages are on the rise globally. Pakistan has been experiencing an increase in flood frequency and severity along with resultant damages in the past. In addition to the regular practices of loss and damage estimation, current focus is on risk assessment of hazard-prone communities. Risk measurement is complex as scholars engaged in disaster science and management use different quantitative models with diverse interpretations. This study tries to provide clarity in conceptualizing disaster risk and proposes a risk assessment methodology with constituent components such as hazard, vulnerability (exposure and sensitivity) and coping/adaptive capacity. Three communities from different urban centers in Pakistan have been selected based on high flood frequency and intensity. A primary survey was conducted in selected urban communities to capture data on a number of variables relating to flood hazard, vulnerability and capacity to compute flood risk index. Households were categorized into different risk levels, such as can manage risk, can survive and cope, and cannot cope. It was found that risk levels varied significantly across the households of the three communities. Metropolitan city was found to be highly vulnerable as compared to smaller cities due to weak capacity. Households living in medium town had devised coping mechanisms to manage risk. The proposed methodology is tested and found operational for risk assessment of flood-prone areas and communities irrespective of locations and countries. 相似文献
14.
This paper is part of a larger community health study aimed at delineating the determinants of health in Sarnia. The paper
specifically investigates Sarnia residents’ daily lived experiences, perceptions of and responses to living within the St.
Clair River “Area of Concern” (AOC) as designated by the federal government based on the hypothesis that relatively high levels
of environmental pollution in the region are negatively influencing human health. Results from in-depth interviews (N = 27) show that residents of Sarnia are conflicted by the elevation of awareness about environmental health threats by being
labelled within an AOC. Residents use their emotional and sensual experiences to adopt appropriate coping strategies to live
within a contaminated community. In contextualizing their everyday lived realities, residents argued that living in an AOC
demands personal acceptance of the conditions in Sarnia and awareness of “bad air days” to cope with pollution exposure. Yet,
residents were not willing to abandon Sarnia because of their cultural, social, and economical attachments to the place they
call home. These findings suggest the need for local health policies that incorporate local concerns and perceptions of how
environmental pollution affects people’s experiences and well-being. There is a necessity to involve community members as
central participants in the process of policy making. 相似文献
15.
Toronto is the largest city in Canada with a population of about 5.5 million in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Being located at the shores of Lake Ontario of the Great Lakes, which is the largest surface freshwater system in the world, and affected by air masses originating from the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean, and the Arctic, the city is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena in socioeconomic and geographical terms. This short paper gives a brief overview of the history of main flooding occurrences in Toronto with an emphasis on the recent flooding of July 2013. An analysis of causes and physical dynamics of the event is presented using the structure of the watersheds and weather systems in the region. Based on the flood risk vulnerability assessment carried out on the 2013 flooding, several weaknesses in critical infrastructure and critical facilities have been highlighted. Future considerations and recommendations include revisiting of the flood damage mitigation strategies (e.g., use of new and adaptive infrastructure designs, social media, crowd-sourcing information), flood zoning update, tax incentives, insurance options, and retrofitting solutions for those living in flood-prone areas. 相似文献
16.
Fatemeh Jalayer Raffaele De Risi Francesco De Paola Maurizio Giugni Gaetano Manfredi Paolo Gasparini Maria Elena Topa Nebyou Yonas Kumelachew Yeshitela Alemu Nebebe Gina Cavan Sarah Lindley Andreas Printz Florian Renner 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):975-1001
Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. 相似文献
17.
A model of a heterogeneous neighborhood 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tel Aviv is a highly ethnic city in which ethnicity is deeply embedded in people’s perceptions of their social milieus. Shapira,
as one of the most heterogeneous neighborhoods in Tel Aviv, supplies a unique demonstration of the inadequacy of the Chicago
model, which assumes the emergence of homogeneous neighborhoods. The study shows that ethnicity is exercised as a major force
in determining social life in Shapira. Interactive segregation indices reveal that residents of Shapira tend to prefer intra-ethnic
social networks although two-thirds of them maintain inter-ethnic networks as well. Despite this, residential and activity
spaces are highly heterogeneous. Residential spaces are heterogeneous on all scales from residents’ immediate surroundings
to the block and the neighborhood as a whole. In most buildings one may find neighbors from two or three different ethnic
groups with only non-Jewish residents excluded from publicly owned buildings. Most residents perform large part of their everyday
life outside the neighborhoods in ethnically heterogeneous surroundings, but nonetheless in choosing their more meaningful
partners for social networks they choose them from their ethnic groups. The fact that residents tend to perform a large part
of their activities out of their neighborhood, and to live in heterogeneous surroundings in social categories that are perceived
by them salient to their daily life, does not undermine the relevance of the neighborhood as a socially constituted entity
in the urban field. People organize and act in order to improve life conditions in the neighborhood, they feel sense of attachment
to the neighborhood and they develop some local social networks in the neighborhood. 相似文献
18.
Duration is a key characteristic of floods influencing the design of protection infrastructures for prevention, deployment of rescue resources during the emergency, and repartition of damage costs in the aftermath. The latter financial aspect mainly relies on the insurance industry and allows the transfer of damage costs from the public sector to the private capital market. In this context, the cost of catastrophes affecting a large amount of insured properties is partly or totally transferred from insurance companies to reinsurance companies by contracts that define the portion of transferred costs according to the temporal extent of the flood events synthesized in the so-called hours clause. However, hours clauses imply standard flood event durations, such as 168 h (1 week), regardless of the hydrological properties characterizing different areas. In this study, we firstly perform a synoptic-scale exploratory analysis to investigate the duration and magnitude of large flood events that occurred around the world and in Europe between 1985 and 2016, and then we present a data-driven procedure devised to compute flood duration by tracking flood peaks along a river network. The exploratory analysis highlights the link of flood duration and magnitude with flood generation mechanism, thus allowing the identification of regions that are more or less prone to long-lasting events exceeding the standard hours clauses. The flood tracking procedure is applied to seven of the largest river basins in Central and Eastern Europe (Danube, Rhine, Elbe, Weser, Rhone, Loire, and Garonne). It correctly identifies major flood events and enables the definition of the probability distribution of the flood propagation time and its sampling uncertainty. Overall, we provide information and analysis tools readily applicable to improve reinsurance practices with respect to spatiotemporal extent of flooding hazard. 相似文献
19.
Waterlogging and flood hazards vulnerability and risk assessment in Indo Gangetic plain 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
The recurrent flooding during monsoon and subsequent waterlogging in the northern Bihar plains and the magnitude of losses
due to these hazards indicate the continuing vulnerability of the region to flood and waterlogging. Management of floods and
waterlogging hazards in highly flood-prone regions of India, including Bihar state has been largely response oriented with
little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based
assessment of flood and waterlogging vulnerability and risk in northern Bihar plains. Multitemporal satellite data was used
to evaluate the area statistics and dynamics of waterlogging over the period from 1975 to 2008. The flood proneness is evaluated
at district level with reference to flood inundation during a period from 1998 to 2008. Census data were used to examine the
socio-economic characteristics of the region through computation of population density, cultivators, agricultural labourers,
sex ratio, children in age group 0–6 years and literates. The geohazard map derived by combining area prone to waterlogging
and flood inundation was multiplied with socio-economic vulnerability map to derive the flood-waterlogging risk map of the
region. The result shows that flood and water-logging pose highest risk to the central districts in the northern Bihar plains
with 50.95% of the total area under high and very high risk. 相似文献
20.
Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood
risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard
(mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility
of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain
degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study,
an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different
land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility
components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of
flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about
25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study
area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty
in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large
uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate,
which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these
components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable
uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in
flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust. 相似文献