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1.
We use a seasonal energy balance climate model to study the behavior of the snowline cycle as a function of external parameters such as the solar constant. Our studies are confined in this study to cases with zonally symmetric land-sea distributions (bands or caps of land). The model is nonlinear in that the seasonally varying snow/sea ice line modifies the energy receipt through its different albedo from open land or water. The repeating steady-state seasonal cycle of the model is solved by a truncated Fourier series in time. This method is several thousand times faster than a time stepping approach. The results are interesting in that a number of bifurcations in the snowline behavior are found and studied for various geographies. Polar land caps and land bands positioned near the poles exhibit a variety of discontinuous summer snow cover behaviors (abrupt transitions as a parameter such as solar constant is slowly varied), which may be relevant to the inception and decay of continental ice sheets. 相似文献
2.
D. Schüttemeyer A. F. Moene A. A. M. Holtslag H. A. R. de. Bruin N. van de. Giesen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,118(3):583-612
This study examines the seasonal cycle of the components of the surface energy balance in the Volta basin in West Africa as part of the GLOWA-Volta project. The regional climate is characterized by a strong north–south gradient of mean annual rainfall and the occurrence of pronounced dry and wet seasons within one annual cycle, causing a strong seasonal variation in the natural vegetation cover. The observations are conducted with a combined system, consisting of a Large Aperture Scintillometer (LAS) for areally averaged sensible heat flux, radiometers and sensors for soil heat flux. For comparisons the eddy-covariance (EC) method providing the fluxes of momentum, sensible and latent heat is utilized as well. The measurements of a seasonal cycle in 2002/2003 were gathered including the rapid wet-to-dry transition after the wet season at two locations in Ghana, one in the humid tropical southern region and one in the northern region. A direct comparison and the energy balance closure of the two methods are investigated for daytime and nighttime separately. An attempt is made to understand and explain the differences between the two methods and the closure of energy budget found for these. It is found that the two systems correspond well during daytime. During nighttime the LAS seems to perform more realistically than the EC system. Considering the fact that a LAS system is much easier to use in the climate conditions of the Volta basin, it is concluded that the LAS approach is very suitable in this type of climate conditions. Surface conductances are estimated by rearranging the Penman–Monteith equation and compared to a Jarvis-type model optimised for savannah conditions. It is found that temperature dependence should be included in the conductance formulation in contrast to earlier findings. Based on the findings the gathered dataset can be used for further model studies of the climate and environment of West Africa. 相似文献
3.
Solar radiation cycles, earth-orbital changes, and continental drift drive long to very long term (103–106 years) climatic changes. Lin and North used the stationary solutions of a simple energy balance model (EBM) to study the equilibrium climatic stages. In this paper, we study time dependent solutions and, in particular, transition processes. We make use of two time scales: a seasonal cycle (fast variation) and a long term time change (slow variation). Variations over short time scales are solved using a Fourier transform in time and long term variations are studied using a 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The energy balance equation is a parabolic type equation and it is well posed. Climate changes depend mainly on external forcing and the state of the climate is determined by the slow time scale forcing. In other words, transitions from one climate stage (snow-covered) to another (snow-free) at bifurcation points are monotonic, despite 20% to 50% shortperiod random fluctuations in the solar energy. This smooth transition is especially noticeable when the land bands lie close to the north pole (70° N to 90° N) or at high latitudes (50° N to 75° N).Now at Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723, USA 相似文献
4.
CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: model description and performance for present climate 总被引：10，自引：5，他引：5
V. Petoukhov A. Ganopolski V. Brovkin M. Claussen A. Eliseev C. Kubatzki S. Rahmstorf 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(1):1-17
A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions
are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation
cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has
a coarse spatial resolution, nevertheless capturing the major features of the Earth's geography. The model describes temporal
variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ flux adjustments
and has a fast turnaround time, it can be used to study climates significantly different from the present one and to perform
long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The comparison of the model results with present climate data show that the model
successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative
balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere.
Received: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 2 July 1999 相似文献
5.
Z. Liu R. G. Gallimore J. E. Kutzbach W. Xu Y. Golubev P. Behling R. Selin 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(5):325-340
The use of the equilibrium asynchronous coupling (EAC) scheme is proposed as a strategy to better understand long-term climate
changes in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The EAC scheme requires each component model to be
integrated to its equilibrium before being coupled to the other component. Use of this scheme has the distinct advantage of
being able to clarify the nature of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere, because each asynchronous iteration takes
the form of a sensitivity experiment. Basic features of the EAC scheme are first studied in an energy balance model. It is
found that the convergence rate of the EAC scheme is proportional to the damping rate in the atmosphere or surface ocean,
but is inversely proportional to the coupling strength between the ocean and atmosphere. Furthermore, the seasonal cycle response
converges much faster than the annual mean response. Using realistic parameters, the seasonal cycle response should converge
in a few iterations. The EAC scheme is further applied to a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to study the
tropical monsoon climate of the early Holocene. The convergence behavior of the sea surface temperature is found to agree
with the theory derived from the energy balance model study. The EAC scheme is further used to investigate the role of ocean-atmosphere
feedback in modifying the response of monsoons to orbital forcings in the early Holocene. It is found that the ocean exerts
a positive feedback on the North African monsoon, but a negative feedback on the Indian monsoon.
Received: 16 March 1998 / Accepted: 24 December 1998 相似文献
6.
本文在全海洋地球的假定下,建立了一个包括太阳辐射、海面温度等季节变化的理想动力气候模式。模拟结果指出:平衡态及其对外参数敏感性的季节变化很大,而且都是夏季比其它季节大得多;四个季节敏感性的平均值也比年平均模式的敏感性大,这可能主要是太阳辐射季节变化引起的。另外,当太阳常数或二氧化碳浓度减小至一定值时,会出现分岔,若继续减小到分岔点以下,则会发生气候灾变—"深冻"。分岔点上外参数的值在夏季要比其它三个季节大得多。以上结果表明物理过程的季节变化在长期气候变化的研究中是不可忽视的。 相似文献
7.
In Colombia, the access to climate related observational data is restricted and their quantity is limited. But information about the current climate is fundamental for studies on present and future climate changes and their impacts. In this respect, this information is especially important over the Colombian Caribbean Catchment Basin (CCCB) that comprises over 80 % of the population of Colombia and produces about 85 % of its GDP. Consequently, an ensemble of several datasets has been evaluated and compared with respect to their capability to represent the climate over the CCCB. The comparison includes observations, reconstructed data (CPC, Delaware), reanalyses (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR), and simulated data produced with the regional climate model REMO. The capabilities to represent the average annual state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability are investigated. The analyses focus on surface air temperature and precipitation as well as on surface water and energy balances. On one hand the CCCB characteristics poses some difficulties to the datasets as the CCCB includes a mountainous region with three mountain ranges, where the dynamical core of models and model parameterizations can fail. On the other hand, it has the most dense network of stations, with the longest records, in the country. The results can be summarised as follows: all of the datasets demonstrate a cold bias in the average temperature of CCCB. However, the variability of the average temperature of CCCB is most poorly represented by the NCEP/NCAR dataset. The average precipitation in CCCB is overestimated by all datasets. For the ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and REMO datasets, the amplitude of the annual cycle is extremely high. The variability of the average precipitation in CCCB is better represented by the reconstructed data of CPC and Delaware, as well as by NCEP/NCAR. Regarding the capability to represent the spatial behaviour of CCCB, temperature is better represented by Delaware and REMO, while precipitation is better represented by Delaware. Among the three datasets that permit an analysis of surface water and energy balances (REMO, ERA-40, and NCEP/NCAR), REMO best demonstrates the closure property of the surface water balance within the basin, while NCEP/NCAR does not demonstrate this property well. The three datasets represent the energy balance fairly well, although some inconsistencies were found in the individual balance components for NCEP/NCAR. 相似文献
8.
9.
二维能量平衡模式中极冰对气候的影响——解的稳定性分析(一) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文从理论上分析了二维能量平衡气候模式解的稳定性。结果表明,解的上分支,即冰界随太阳常数增加而北移的解是稳定的;而解的下分支,即冰界随太阳常数增加而南移的解是不稳定的。由于现在地球上的气候是处在解的上分支,所以可以认为,现在气候状态是稳定的。 相似文献
10.
We use the coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM to investigate the transition from the present-day
climate to a modern Snowball Earth, defined as the Earth in modern geography with complete sea-ice cover. Starting from the
present-day climate and applying an abrupt decrease of total solar irradiance (TSI) we find that the critical TSI marking
the Snowball Earth bifurcation point is between 91 and 94% of the present-day TSI. The Snowball Earth bifurcation point as
well as the transition times are well reproduced by a zero-dimensional energy balance model of the mean ocean potential temperature.
During the transition, the asymmetric distribution of continents between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere causes heat
transports toward the more water-covered Southern Hemisphere. This is accompanied by an intensification of the southern Hadley
cell and the wind-driven subtropical ocean cells by a factor of 4. If we set back TSI to 100% shortly before the transition
to a modern Snowball Earth is completed, a narrow band of open equatorial water is sufficient for rapid melting. This implies
that for 100% TSI the point of unstoppable glaciation separating partial from complete sea-ice cover is much closer to complete
sea-ice cover than in classical energy balance models. Stable states can have no greater than 56.6% sea-ice cover implying
that ECHAM5/MPI-OM does not exhibit stable states with near-complete sea-ice cover but open equatorial waters. 相似文献
11.
Hengyi WENG 《大气科学进展》2012,29(4):887-908
Part Ⅱ of this study detects the dominant decadal-centennial timescales in four SST indices up to the 2010/2011 winter and tries to relate them to the observed 11-yr and 88-yr solar activity with the sunspot number up to Solar Cycle 24.To explore plausible solar origins of the observed decadal-centennial timescales in the SSTs and climate variability in general,we design a simple one-dimensional dynamical system forced by an annual cycle modulated by a small-amplitude single-or multi-scale "solar activity." Results suggest that nonlinear harmonic and subharmonic resonance of the system to the forcing and period-doubling bifurcations are responsible for the dominant timescales in the system,including the 60-yr timescale that dominates the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.The dominant timescales in the forced system depend on the system’s parameter setting.Scale enhancement among the dominant response timescales may result in dramatic amplifications over a few decades and extreme values of the time series on various timescales.Three possible energy sources for such amplifications and extremes are proposed.Dynamical model results suggest that solar activity may play an important yet not well recognized role in the observed decadal-centennial climate variability.The atmospheric dynamical amplifying mechanism shown in Part Ⅰ and the nonlinear resonant and bifurcation mechanisms shown in Part Ⅱ help us to understand the solar source of the multi-scale climate change in the 20th century and the fact that different solar influenced dominant timescales for recurrent climate extremes for a given region or a parameter setting.Part Ⅱ also indicates that solar influences on climate cannot be linearly compared with non-cyclic or sporadic thermal forcings because they cannot exert their influences on climate in the same way as the sun does. 相似文献
12.
Results from a two-dimensional energy balance model with a realistic land-ocean distribution show that the small ice cap instability exists in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere. A series of experiments with a one-dimensional energy balance model with idealized geography are used to study the roles of the seasonal cycle and the land-ocean distribution. The results indicate that the seasonal cycle and land-ocean distribution can influence the strength of the albedo feedback, which is responsible for the small ice cap instability, through two factors: the temperature gradient and the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. The land-ocean distribution in the Southern Hemisphere favors the small ice cap instability, while the land-ocean distribution in the Northern Hemisphere does not. Because of the longitudinal variations of land-ocean distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, the behavior of ice lines in the Northern Hemisphere cannot be simulated and explained by the model with zonally symmetric land-ocean distribution. Model results suggest that the small ice cap instability may be a possible mechanism for the formation of the Antarctic icesheet. The model results cast doubt, however, on the role of the small ice cap instability in Northern Hemisphere glaciations.
Offprint requests to: J Huang 相似文献
13.
Much work has gone into deciphering the causes of the large scale glacial/interglacial variations in the climate system over the last 900 000 years. While variations on the 41 thousand year (ky) and 23 ky time scales seem to be linearly linked to the variations in the distribution of solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, Milankovitch solar radiation variations, the causes of the dominant 100 ky cycle in the geologic record are still unknown. One of the aspects of this cycle that is not well understood is how large scale ice sheet growth is initiated. Here we describe the mechanisms by which large scale ice sheet growth may have been initiated by the changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation over the past 160 ky. This is done through the use of a coupled energy balance climate-thermodynamic sea ice model that includes a hydrologic cycle which computes precipitation, and a land surface energy balance which determines the net accumulation of snow and ice. Results indicate that the initiation of ice sheet growth is possible during times of extremely low summer solstice solar radiation as a result of a large decrease in ablation during the critical melt season. 相似文献
14.
R. Bintanja 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1997,56(1-2):1-24
Summary In this paper a simple climate model is presented which is used to perform some sensitivity experiments. The atmospheric part is represented by a vertically and zonally averaged layer in which the surface air temperature, radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, the turbulent fluxes between atmosphere and surface and the snow cover are calculated. This atmospheric layer is coupled to a two-dimensional advection-diffusion ocean model in which the zonal overturning pattern is prescribed. The ocean model evaluates the temperature distribution, the amount of sea-ice and the meridional and vertical heat fluxes. The present-day climate simulated by the model compares reasonably well with observations of the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of temperature, radiation, surface alebdo, sea-ice and snow cover and meridional energy fluxes. Then, the sensitivity of the model-simulated present-day climate to perturbations in the incident solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere is investigated. The temperature response displays large latitudinal and seasonal variations, which is in qualitative agreement with results obtained with other climate models. It is found that the seasonal variation of sea-ice cover (and hence, the effective oceanic heat capacity) is one of the most important elements determining seasonal variations in climate sensitivity. Differences in sensitivity between the seasonal and annual mean version of the model are discussed. Finally, the equilibrium response to perturbations in some selected model variables is presented; these variables include meridional diffusion coefficients, drag coefficient, sea-ice thickness, atmospheric CO2-concentration and cloud optical thickness.With 13 Figures 相似文献
15.
16.
This paper explores the relationship between the complexity of the land surface energy balance parameterization and the simulation
of means, variances and extremes in a climate model. We used the BMRC climate model combined with the protocol of AMIP-II
to perform six ensemble simulations for each of four levels of surface energy balance complexity. Our results were then compared
with other AMIP-II results in terms of the mean, variance and extremes of temperatures and precipitation. In terms of the
zonally-averaged mean and the maximum temperatures and precipitation, the surface energy balance complexity did not systematically
affect the BMRC climate model results. The zonal minimum temperature was affected by the inclusion of tiling and/or a temporally
variable canopy conductance. We found no evidence that surface energy balance complexity affected the globally- or zonally-averaged
variances. Some quite large differences were identified in the probability density functions of maximum (10 K) and minimum
(4 K) temperature caused by surface tiling and/or the inclusion of a time-varying canopy conductance. With these included,
the model simulated a higher probability of cooler minima and warmer maxima and therefore a different diurnal temperature
range. Adding interception of precipitation led to an increase in the likelihood of more extreme precipitation. Thus, provided
interception, surface tiling and a time-variable stomatal conductance are included in a land surface model, the impact of
other uncertainties in the parameterization of the surface energy balance are unlikely to limit the use of climate models
for simulating changes in the extremes. Most published results indicating changes to precipitation and temperature extremes
due to increasing carbon dioxide are therefore unlikely to be significantly limited by uncertainty in how to parameterize
the surface energy balance. Given that the variations in surface energy balance complexity included in our experiments approximates
the range included in the AMIP-II models, we conclude that it this is unlikely to explain the differences found between the
AMIP-II simulations. This does not mean that AMIP-II differences are not caused to a significant degree by differences in
their respective LSMs, rather it limits the potential role of the land surface to non-surface energy balance components, or
components (such as carbon) that are not considered here. 相似文献
17.
Isabella Bordi Klaus Fraedrich Alfonso Sutera Xiuhua Zhu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,109(1-2):245-252
A change in CO2 concentration induces a direct radiative forcing that modifies the planetary thermodynamic state, and hence the surface temperature. The infrared cooling, by assuming a constant temperature lapse-rate during the process, will be related to the surface temperature through the Stefan–Boltzmann law in a ratio proportional to the new infrared opacity. Other indirect effects, such as the water vapor and ice-albedo feedbacks, may amplify the system response. In the present paper, we address the question of how a global climate model with a mixed layer ocean responds to different rates of change of a well-mixed greenhouse gas such as CO2. We provide evidence that different rates of CO2 variation may lead to similar transient climates characterized by the same global mean surface temperature but different values of CO2 concentration. Moreover, it is shown that, far from the bifurcation points, the model’s climate depends on the history of the radiative forcing displaying a hysteresis cycle that is neither static nor dynamical, but is related to the memory response of the model. Results are supported by the solutions of a zero-dimensional energy balance model. 相似文献
18.
The responses of the climate system to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2)arestudied by using a new version of the Bureau of Meteorological Research Centre(BMRC)globalcoupled general circulation model(CGCM).Two simulations are run:one with atmospheric CO_2concentration held constant at 330 ppm,the other with a tripling of atmospheric CO_2(990 ppm).Results from the 41-year control coupled integration are applied to analyze the mean state,seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the model.Comparisons between the greenhouseexperiment and the control experiment then provide estimations of the influence of increased CO_2on climate changes and climate variability.Especially discussed is the question on whether theclimate changes concerned with CO_2 inerease will impact interannual variability in tropical Pacific,such as ENSO. 相似文献
19.
A Coupled General Circulation Model for the Tropical Pacific Ocean and Global Atmosphere 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
On the basis of Zeng’s theoretical design, a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed with its characteristics different from other CGCMs such as the unified vertical coordinates and subtraction of the standard stratification for both atmosphere and ocean, available energy consideration, and so on. The oceanic component is a free surface tropical Pacific Ocean GCM between 30oN and 30oS with horizontal grid spacing of 1o in latitude and 2o in longitude, and with 14 vertical layers. The atmospheric component it a global GCM with low-resolution of 4o in latitude and 5o in longitude, and two layers or equal man in the vertical between the surface and 200 hPa. The atmospheric GCM includes comprehensive physical processes. The coupled model is subjected to seasonally-varying cycle. Several coupling experiments, ranging from straight forward coupling without flux correction to one with flux correction, and to so-called predictor-corrector monthly coupling (PCMC), are conducted to show the existence and final controlling of the climate drift in the coupled system. After removing the climate drift with the PCMC scheme, the coupled model is integrated for more than twenty years. The results show reasonable simulations of the annual mean and its seasonal cycle of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The model also produces the coherent interannual variations of the climate system, manifesting the observed El Ni?o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). 相似文献
20.
Ping Huang Pengfei Wang Kaiming Hu Gang Huang Zhihua Zhang Yong Liu Bangliang Yan 《大气科学进展》2014,31(5):1136-1146
This study introduces a new global climate model--the Integrated Climate Model （ICM）--developed for the seasonal prediction of East Asian-western North Pacific （EA-WNP） climate by the Center for Monsoon System Research at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics （CMSR, IAP）, Chinese Academy of Sciences. ICM integrates ECHAM5 and NEMO2.3 as its atmospheric and oceanic components, respectively, using OASIS3 as the coupler. The simulation skill of ICM is evaluated here, including the simulated climatology, interannual variation, and the influence of E1 Nifio as one of the most important factors on EA-WNP climate. ICM successfully reproduces the distribution of sea surface temperature （SST） and precipitation without climate shift, the seasonal cycle of equatorial Pacific SST, and the precipitation and circulation of East Asian summer monsoon. The most prominent biases of ICM are the excessive cold tongue and unrealistic westward phase propagation of equatorial Pacific SST. The main interannual variation of the tropical Pacific SST and EA-WNP climate E1 Nifio and the East Asia-Pacific Pattern--are also well simulated in ICM, with realistic spatial pattern and period. The simulated E1 Nifio has significant impact on EA-WNP climate, as in other models. The assessment shows ICM should be a reliable model for the seasonal prediction of EA-WNP climate. 相似文献