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1.
During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of 18O and deuterium (H 2 18 O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10°N and 20°N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East–West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of δ18O and δD is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region.  相似文献   

2.
The seasonally varying moisture balance in a montane forest of Southeast Asia is reconstructed for the 20th century from the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of subannual tree cellulose samples of Pinus kesiya growing at 1,500?m elevation on Doi Chiang Dao in northern Thailand. The cellulose δ18O values exhibit a distinctive annual cycle with amplitude of up to 12?‰, which we interpret to represent primarily the seasonal cycle of precipitation δ18O. The annual mean δ18O values correlate significantly with the amount of summer monsoon precipitation, and suggest a temporal weakening relationship between the South Asian monsoon and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation over the late 20th century. The cellulose δ18O annual maxima values, which reflect the dry season moisture status, have declined progressively over the 20th century by about 3.5?‰. We interpret this to indicate a change in the contribution of the isotopically distinct fog water to the dry season soil moisture in response to rising temperature as well as deforestation.  相似文献   

3.
The series of δ18O values is presented for all precipitation events in Moscow in 2014. Precipitation samples were taken at the observation site of the Meteorological Observatory of Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU MO), and the isotopic analysis was carried out in the isotopic laboratory of the Department of Geography of MSU. The concentration of stable 18O in precipitation over Moscow in 2014 varied from -0.09 to -26.29‰. The maximum amplitudes of δ18O were registered in March-April and October. The pronounced interrelation was revealed between the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation and surface air temperature (the correlation coefficient is 0.85). The computation of back trajectories of air masses and the analysis of weather charts demonstrated that the most isotopically light precipitation is typical of relatively cold air masses slowly moving over the continent during the last five days before precipitation. In this case, the ongoing condensation leads to the progressive isotopic depletion of precipitation (more and more isotope-depleted precipitation is registered). On the contrary, fast air transport from the middle and even from high latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean leads to the relatively constant of δ18O values of precipitation.  相似文献   

4.
The interpretation of stable isotopes in speleothems in terms of past temperature variability or precipitation rates requires a comprehensive understanding of the climatic factors and processes that influence the δ18O signal in the way through the atmosphere to the cave, where carbonate precipitates acquiring its final isotopic composition. This study presents for the first time in the Iberia Peninsula an integrated analysis of the isotopic composition of rainfall (δ18Op) during 2010–2012 years and, through a detailed monitoring survey, the transference of the primary isotopic signal throughout the soil and epikarst into the Molinos cave (Teruel, NE Spain). Both air temperature and amount of precipitation have an important effect on δ18Op values, clearly imprinting a seasonal variability modulated by an amount effect when rainfall events are more frequent or intense. Air mass history and atmospheric circulation influences are considered through the study of weather types, synoptic-scale climate patterns and large-scale atmospheric circulation indexes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Mediterranean Oscillation) revealing a dominant source effect on δ18Op values in this region where tropical North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean are the two moisture source regions. A delay of 2–3 months occurs between the dripwater oxygen isotopic composition (δ18Od) respect to δ18Op values as a consequence of large residence time in the epikarst. Limited calcite precipitates are found from winter to spring when δ18Od values are less negative and dripwater rates are constant. This study suggests that NE Iberian δ18Ocalcite proxy records are best interpreted as reflecting a combination of parameters, not just paleotemperature or paleorainfall and, if extending present-day situation towards the recent past, a biased signal towards winter values should be expected in Molinos speleothem records.  相似文献   

5.
In the context of regional downscaling, we study the representation of extreme precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, focusing on a major event that occurred on the 8th of June 2007 along the coast of eastern Australia (abbreviated “Newy”). This was one of the strongest extra-tropical low-pressure systems off eastern Australia in the last 30 years and was one of several storms comprising a test bed for the WRF ensemble that underpins the regional climate change projections for eastern Australia (New South Wales/Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling Project, NARCliM). Newy provides an informative case study for examining precipitation extremes as simulated by WRF set up for regional downscaling. Here, simulations from the NARCliM physics ensemble of Newy available at ～10 km grid spacing are used. Extremes and spatio-temporal characteristics are examined using land-based daily and hourly precipitation totals, with a particular focus on hourly accumulations. Of the different physics schemes assessed, the cumulus and the boundary layer schemes cause the largest differences. Although the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme produces better rainfall totals over the entire storm, the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme promotes higher and more realistic hourly extreme precipitation totals. Analysis indicates the Kain-Fritsch runs are correlated with larger resolved grid-scale vertical moisture fluxes, which are produced through the influence of parameterized convection on the larger-scale circulation and the subsequent convergence and ascent of moisture. Results show that WRF qualitatively reproduces spatial precipitation patterns during the storm, albeit with some errors in timing. This case study indicates that whilst regional climate simulations of an extreme event such as Newy in WRF may be well represented at daily scales irrespective of the physics scheme used, the representation at hourly scales is likely to be physics scheme dependent.  相似文献   

6.
This study identifies potential predictors for seasonal forecast of dust storm frequency for the Inner Mongolia region of China. Regionally averaged antecedent annual precipitation anomaly has a significant influence on spring dust storm frequency. It is strongly linked to the frequency of severe dust storms that produce strong impact on the downstream Beijing-Tianjin area. A hindcast that uses precipitation anomaly to predict dust storm frequency in the following spring significantly outperforms climatologic forecast. Limited soil moisture observations indicate that an abundant annual precipitation increases the soil moisture of subsurface layer in the subsequent spring, which in turn improves vegetation growth that could lead to a reduction in the frequency of dust storms.  相似文献   

7.
The South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) is a prominent feature of summertime climate over South America and has been identified in a number of paleoclimatic records from across the continent, including records based on stable isotopes. The relationship between the stable isotopic composition of precipitation and interannual variations in monsoon strength, however, has received little attention so far. Here we investigate how variations in the intensity of the SASM influence δ18O in precipitation based on both observational data and Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) simulations. An index of vertical wind shear over the SASM entrance (low level) and exit (upper level) region over the western equatorial Atlantic is used to define interannual variations in summer monsoon strength. This index is closely correlated with variations in deep convection over tropical and subtropical South America during the mature stage of the SASM. Observational data from the International Atomic Energy Agency-Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (IAEA-GNIP) and from tropical ice cores show a significant negative association between δ18O and SASM strength over the Amazon basin, SE South America and the central Andes. The more depleted stable isotopic values during intense monsoon seasons are consistent with the so-called ’‘amount effect‘’, often observed in tropical regions. In many locations, however, our results indicate that the moisture transport history and the degree of rainout upstream may be more important factors explaining interannual variations in δ18O. In many locations the stable isotopic composition is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even though the moisture source is located over the tropical Atlantic and precipitation is the result of the southward expansion and intensification of the SASM during austral summer. ENSO induces significant atmospheric circulation anomalies over tropical South America, which affect both SASM precipitation and δ18O variability. Therefore many regions show a weakened relationship between SASM and δ18O, once the SASM signal is decomposed into its ENSO-, and non-ENSO-related variance.  相似文献   

8.
Summary A generalized method to estimate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) has been developed for catchments in eastern India (80° E, 18° N) by pooling together all the major rainstorms that have occurred in this area. The areal raindepths of these storms are normalized for factors such as storm dew point temperature, distance of the storm from the coast, topographic effects and any intervening mountain barriers between the storm area and the moisture source. The normalized values are then applied, with appropriate adjustment factors in estimating PMP raindepths, to the Subarnarekha river catchment (upto the Chandil dam site) with an area of 5663 km2. The PMP rainfall for 1, 2 and 3 days were found to be roughly 53 cm, 78 cm and 98 cm, respectively. It is expected that the application of the generalized method proposed here will give more reliable estimates of PMP for different duration rainfall events.With 5 Figures  相似文献   

9.
Changes in maximum spring and summer temperature are expected to have impacts on plant phenology and the occurrence of forest fires. Homogenised instrumental records of maximum spring and summer temperature are available in northern France for the past century, as well as documentary records of grape harvest dates and forest fire frequencies. Here we provide a new proxy of seasonal climate obtained by the analysis of latewood tree ring cellulose isotopic composition (δ18O, δ13C and δD), from 15 living oak trees (Quercus petraea) sampled in the Fontainebleau forest, near Paris. For the past 30 years, we have conducted a study on the inter-tree (for oxygen isotopes) and inter-station (for oxygen and hydrogen) isotopic variability. Multiple linear regression statistical analyses are used to assess the response function of documentary and tree-ring isotopic records to a variety of climatic and hydrological parameters. This calibration study highlights the correlation between latewood tree-ring δ18O and δ13C, grape harvest dates and numbers of forest fire starts with maximum growing season (April to September) temperature, showing the potential of multiple proxy reconstructions to assess the past fluctuations of this parameter prior to the instrumental period.  相似文献   

10.
We present new tree-ring width, δ13C, and δ18O chronologies from the Koksu site (49°N, 86° E, 2,200 m asl), situated in the Russian Altai. A strong temperature signal is recorded in the tree-ring width (June-July) and stable isotope (July-August) chronologies, a July precipitation signal captured by the stable isotope data. To investigate the nature of common climatic patterns, our new chronologies are compared with previously published tree-ring and stable isotope data from other sites in the Altai region. The temperature signal preserved in the conifer trees is strongly expressed at local and regional scales for all studied sites, resulting in even stronger temperature and precipitation signals in combined average chronologies compared to separate chronologies. This enables the reconstruction of June-July and July-August temperatures for the last 200 years using tree-ring and stable carbon isotopes. A July precipitation reconstruction based on oxygen isotopic variability recorded in tree-rings can potentially improve the understanding of hydrological changes and the occurrence of extreme events in the Russian Altai.  相似文献   

11.
Daily and monthly-based water balance computations are made for areas with climates ranging from humid (Coshocton, Ohio) through Mediterranean (Watsonville, California) and semi-arid (Dodge City, Kansas) to arid conditions (Tucson, Arizona). Monthly procedures lead to an underestimate of observed mean annual runoff by 14% in Coshocton, 59% in Tucson, and an overestimate by 9% in Watsonville. Daily balance calculations increase model accuracy. The improvement in runoff estimates by using the daily method is most significant for arid climates. Daily-monthly departures are greater in the semi-arid and arid areas than in the humid and Mediterranean areas. In terms of mean annual runoff, the difference between monthly estimates and daily estimates is 42.5% in arid Tucson, 58.2% in semi-arid Dodge City, but only 8.9% in humid Coshocton and 5.6% in Mediterranean Watsonville. The daily-monthly departures in soil moisture estimates are generally less than 10% in the humid and Mediterranean climates, but well above 50% in most months in the arid and semi-arid climates. Regression analysis indicates the daily-monthly difference in moisture surplus estimates correlates well with the amount of storm clustering within a month. Monthly computations depart increasingly from daily computations as storm clustering increases. The hydrological impacts of changes in storm clustering are studied by forcing the water balance model with daily precipitation sequences based on hypothetical storm scenarios. Total annual moisture surplus tends to increase with increased storm clustering. In the arid and semi-arid climates, the differences between the most and least clustering scenarios equal 35% up to 60% of surplus water generated by normal storms. They are about 20% in the cases of the humid and Mediterranean climates. These results suggest future potential changes in climatic variability such as storm delivery patterns can have significant impacts on water resource availability.  相似文献   

12.
The stable isotopic composition of precipitation in different regions reflects climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, moisture sources, and transport process. However, the isotopic variation in the region is usually much complicated due to the combined influences of these factors. A good understanding of climatic controls on the isotopic composition of precipitation can contribute to the study on isotopic tracer for climate and hydrology. To investigate the isotopic variation of precipitation and its climatic controls in the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, a monitoring station for stable isotope in precipitation has been established in Nagqu region, central Tibetan Plateau. We obtained 79 daily samples at Nagqu Meteorological Station in 2000. The observed δ 18O in precipitation showed a distinctly seasonal pattern with higher values in spring and winter and lower values in summer, despite of individually low values in winter due to extremely low temperature. To further understand this pattern, we evaluated the influence of temperature, precipitation, moisture sources, and moisture transport process on precipitation δ 18O. A multiple linear regression model represents quantitatively the dependence of precipitation δ 18O on precipitation and temperature: δ 18Oppt?=??0.30P???0.11T???14.8 (R 2?=?0.13, n?=?79, P?=?0.005), which indicates δ 18O values in precipitation are more dependent on precipitation amount than on temperature. In contrast, when the temperature is low enough (<2°C), δ 18O values in precipitation are mainly dependent on temperature: δ 18Oppt?=?0.53T???10.2 (R 2?=?0.44, n?=?19, P?=?0.002). The variation of δ 18O in precipitation is also closely related to moisture origins and transport trajectories. A model is set up to trace the trajectories for air masses arriving in the observed region, and the results demonstrated that humid marine air masses from the Indian Ocean generally have significantly lower δ 18O values than dry continental air masses from the north or local re-evaporation. During monsoon precipitation, the distance and depth of moisture transport as well as convective precipitation all lead to the large variability of δ 18O in precipitation.  相似文献   

13.
Summary The West African monsoon oscillates each year with remarkable regularity but the interannual variability associated with the monsoon is not fully understood although much progress has been made in recent years. This study examines and evaluates the mean state and the interannual variability of the West African climate as simulated by the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) over the period 1979 through 1990 using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data as lateral boundary conditions. Our analysis shows that the averaged rainfall over the region is well represented by the model and demonstrates considerable skill in reproducing the extreme rainfall regimes. There is however a tendency to overestimate rainfall amounts along the Guinean coast, particularly around mountainous areas, and to underestimate it over the Soudano-Sahel. The increased rainfall along the coast is due to an enhanced low-level convergence of the moist southwesterly winds along the coast leading to a reduction of the moisture content in the atmosphere. The decrease over the Soudano-Sahel could be associated with the weakening of the land–sea temperature gradient and hence the decrease in the low level southerly flows. The spatial and temporal variations in temperature are well captured by the model except for slightly cold bias over the coastal region due to an overestimation of precipitation.  相似文献   

14.
This study compares the synoptic-dynamic relationship between two phases of the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and winter precipitation isotopes at 73 sites across the contiguous USA. We use the spatial pattern of isotope slope—the rate of changes in precipitation isotope ratios with distance—to identify features in the seasonal precipitation isotope fields related to climatic patterns, PNA positive and PNA negative. Our results show relationships between zones of high isotope slopes and the spatial position of the polar jet stream and juxtaposition of air masses associated with the PNA pattern. During a positive PNA winter, zones of high isotope slope in the eastern USA shift southward. This change is coincident with a southward displacement of the polar jet stream in this region, which leads to a greater frequency of polar air masses and 18O-depleted isotope values of precipitation in the region. In the western USA, zones of high slope shift eastward during the positive PNA winter, associated with more frequent penetration of tropical air masses that bring 18O-enriched precipitation to the region. Differences in δ18O/temperature relationships between the PNA-positive and -negative winters and contrasting δ18O/temperature behaviors in the eastern and western USA provide support for the role of variation in moisture source and transport as a control on the isotopic patterns. These findings highlight the importance of synoptic climate driven by PNA pattern in determining the spatial patterns of precipitation isotopes and provide constraints on paleo-water isotope interpretation and modern isotope hydrological processes.  相似文献   

15.
Precipitation isotope ratios (O and H) record the history of water phase transitions and fractionation processes during moisture transport and rainfall formation. Here, we evaluated the isotopic composition of precipitation over the central-southeastern region of Brazil at different timescales. Monthly isotopic compositions were associated with classical effects (rainfall amount, seasonality, and continentality), demonstrating the importance of vapor recirculation processes and different regional atmospheric systems (South American Convergence Zone-SACZ and Cold Fronts-CF). While moisture recycling and regional atmospheric processes may also be observed on a daily timescale, classical effects such as the amount effect were not strongly correlated (δ18O-precipitation rate r ≤ –0.37). Daily variability revealed specific climatic features, such as δ18O depleted values (~ –6‰ to –8‰) during the wet season were associated with strong convective activity and large moisture availability. Daily isotopic analysis revealed the role of different moisture sources and transport effects. Isotope ratios combined with d-excess explain how atmospheric recirculation processes interact with convective activity during rainfall formation processes. Our findings provide a new understanding of rainfall sampling timescales and highlight the importance of water isotopes to decipher key hydrometeorological processes in a complex spatial and temporal context in central-southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

16.
High-latitude δ18O archives deriving from meteoric water (e.g., tree-rings and ice-cores) can provide valuable information on past temperature variability, but stationarity of temperature signals in these archives depends on the stability of moisture source/trajectory and precipitation seasonality, both of which can be affected by atmospheric circulation changes. A tree-ring δ18O record (AD 1780–2003) from the Mackenzie Delta is evaluated as a temperature proxy based on linear regression diagnostics. The primary source of moisture for this region is the North Pacific and, thus, North Pacific atmospheric circulation variability could potentially affect the tree-ring δ18O-temperature signal. Over the instrumental period (AD 1892–2003), tree-ring δ18O explained 29 % of interannual variability in April–July minimum temperatures, and the explained variability increases substantially at lower-frequencies. A split-period calibration/verification analysis found the δ18O-temperature relation was time-stable, which supported a temperature reconstruction back to AD 1780. The stability of the δ18O-temperature signal indirectly implies the study region is insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, since North Pacific circulation was not constant over the calibration period. Simulations from the NASA-GISS ModelE isotope-enabled general circulation model confirm that meteoric δ18O and precipitation seasonality in the study region are likely insensitive to North Pacific circulation effects, highlighting the paleoclimatic value of tree-ring and possibly other δ18O records from this region. Our δ18O-based temperature reconstruction is the first of its kind in northwestern North America, and one of few worldwide, and provides a long-term context for evaluating recent climate warming in the Mackenzie Delta region.  相似文献   

17.
 The impact of CO2-induced global warming on the intensities of strong hurricanes is investigated using the GFDL regional high-resolution hurricane prediction system. The large-scale initial conditions and boundary conditions for the regional model experiments, including SSTs, are derived from control and transient CO2 increase experiments with the GFDL R30-resolution global coupled climate model. In a case study approach, 51 northwest Pacific storm cases derived from the global model under present-day climate conditions are simulated with the regional model, along with 51 storm cases for high CO2 conditions. For each case, the regional model is integrated forward for five days without ocean coupling. The high CO2 storms, with SSTs warmer by about 2.2 °C on average and higher environmental convective available potential energy (CAPE), are more intense than the control storms by about 3–7 m/s (5%–11%) for surface wind speed and 7 to 24 hPa for central surface pressure. The simulated intensity increases are statistically significant according to most of the statistical tests conducted and are robust to changes in storm initialization methods. Near-storm precipitation is 28% greater in the high CO2 sample. In terms of storm tracks, the high CO2 sample is quite similar to the control. The mean radius of hurricane force winds is 2 to 3% greater for the composite high CO2 storm than for the control, and the high CO2 storms penetrate slightly higher into the upper troposphere. More idealized experiments were also performed in which an initial storm disturbance was embedded in highly simplified flow fields using time mean temperature and moisture conditions from the global climate model. These idealized experiments support the case study results and suggest that, in terms of thermodynamic influences, the results for the NW Pacific basin are qualitatively applicable to other tropical storm basins. Received: 20 July 1998/Accepted: 24 December 1998  相似文献   

18.
区域气候模式(RegCM2)与水文模式耦合的数值试验   总被引：12，自引：2，他引：12  
建立不均匀的地表径流算法，修改RegCM2的径流方案，设计了一个适合与气候模式RegCM2耦合、能模拟水文站流量的汇流模式，模拟了1998年6、7、8月降水的空间分布，分析了该径流方案对降水、地表热量通量、地表径流、土壤湿度产生的影响。结果表明：（1）该方案在模拟1998年长江流域降水空间分布上有一定的合理性，在一定程度上改善了降水量的模拟，其影响大致是总降水量的10％；（2）地表径流方案改变了地面向大气输送的热量通量，这种作用随时间发生变化，这种变化与地表水分的再分配有关；（3）本方案计算的土壤渗透率较强，在暴雨初期，产生径流较少，而在暴雨后期土壤湿度增大，产生的地表径流较大，这一点更符合洪水形成的特点；（4）水文一气候耦合模式模拟了两个长江水文站的流量，模拟值基本反映了实测值的变化趋势，也表明耦合模式基本能反映1998年夏季长江流域大暴雨期间的地表水文过程。  相似文献   

19.
利用1966—2016年南川国家站的逐日降水观测资料,分析了南川降水的年内分布及次季节变化和暴雨的气候变化特征、年际、年代际和趋势变化特征。结果表明:南川降水的年内分布差异大,降水量峰值出现在6月,月降水强度最大在7月;南川的降水具有明显的次季节变化,且准双周变化信号(10~25 d)大于低频季节内振荡(25~90 d);南川的暴雨日数和暴雨量与年降水量有很好的正相关性;暴雨出现在3—11月,其分布呈单峰型,峰值出现在6月;年平均暴雨日为2.5 d,暴雨日数年际变化的线性趋势不显著;暴雨日总降水量在1966—1994年存在10~12 a的年代际变化信号,在1996—2016年主要存在13~15 a的年代际变化信号,在1976—1984年还存在2~4 a的年际变化信号;南川的暴雨特征量年际、年代际变化大,但没有显著的升降趋势,说明南川暴雨的总体气候特征是比较平稳的。  相似文献   

20.
Variations of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge and their implication to the Southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation were analyzed for the years 1948–2007. The results show that the movement of the NASH western ridge regulates both moisture transport and vertical motion over the SE US, especially in the last three decades, during which the ridge moved westward towards the American continent. When the NASH western ridge is located southwest (SW) of its mean climate position, excessive summer precipitation is observed due to an enhanced moisture transport. In contrast, when the western ridge is located in the northwest (NW), a precipitation deficit prevails as downward motion dominates the region. Composite analysis indicates that SW ridging results mainly from the NASH center’s intensification; whereas NW ridging is likely caused by stationary wave propagation from the eastern Pacific/US western coast. In recent decades, both the SW and NW ridge positions have been observed to increase in frequency. Our results suggest that the increase in the SW ridging consistently follows the NASH’s intensification associated with anthropogenic forcing as projected by coupled climate models. However, the increased frequency of NW ridging tends to follow the positive Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. Thus, the enhanced variability in the SE US summer precipitation in recent decades might be a combined result of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability of the climate system. Results suggest that, as anthropogenic forcing continues to increase, the SE US will experience more frequent wet summers and an increase in the frequency of dry summers during positive PDO phases.  相似文献   

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