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1.
Adushkin V. V. Varypaev A. V. Kushnir A. F. Sanina I. A. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2020,493(1):548-551
Doklady Earth Sciences - The results of recording and determining the locations of seismic events triggered by industrial explosions conducted by OJSC Kombinat KMAruda at the Korobkovskoe iron ore... 相似文献
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L. Goddard A. Kumar A. Solomon D. Smith G. Boer P. Gonzalez V. Kharin W. Merryfield C. Deser S. J. Mason B. P. Kirtman R. Msadek R. Sutton E. Hawkins T. Fricker G. Hegerl C. A. T. Ferro D. B. Stephenson G. A. Meehl T. Stockdale R. Burgman A. M. Greene Y. Kushnir M. Newman J. Carton I. Fukumori T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272
Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty. 相似文献
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Saskia?ErdmannEmail author Caroline?Martel Michel?Pichavant Alexandra?Kushnir 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(6):1016
Amphibole is widely employed to calculate crystallization temperature and pressure, although its potential as a geobarometer has always been debated. Recently, Ridolfi et al. (Contrib Mineral Petrol 160:45–66, 2010) and Ridolfi and Renzulli (Contrib Mineral Petrol 163:877–895, 2012) have presented calibrations for calculating temperature, pressure, fO2, melt H2O, and melt major and minor oxide composition from amphibole with a large compositional range. Using their calibrations, we have (i) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from eleven published experimental studies to examine the problems and the potential of the new calibrations; and (ii) calculated crystallization conditions for amphibole from basaltic–andesitic pyroclasts erupted during the paroxysmal 2010 eruption of Mount Merapi in Java, Indonesia, to infer pre-eruptive conditions. Our comparison of experimental and calculated values shows that calculated crystallization temperatures are reasonable estimates. Calculated fO2 and melt SiO2 content yields potentially useful estimates at moderately reduced to moderately oxidized conditions and intermediate to felsic melt compositions. However, calculated crystallization pressure and melt H2O content are untenable estimates that largely reflect compositional variation in the crystallizing magmas and crystallization temperature and not the calculated parameters. Amphibole from Merapi’s pyroclasts yields calculated conditions of ~200–800 MPa, ~900–1,050 °C, ~NNO + 0.3–NNO + 1.1, ~3.7–7.2 wt% melt H2O, and ~58–71 wt% melt SiO2. We interpret the variations in calculated temperature, fO2, and melt SiO2 content as reasonable estimates, but conclude that the large calculated pressure variation for amphibole from Merapi and many other arc volcanoes is evidence for thorough mixing of mafic to felsic magmas and not necessarily evidence for crystallization over a large depth range. In contrast, bimodal pressure estimates obtained for other arc magmas reflect amphibole crystallization from mafic and more evolved magmas, respectively, and should not necessarily be taken as evidence for crystallization in two reservoirs at variable depth. 相似文献
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V. M. Kushnir 《Physical Oceanography》2005,15(6):370-382
The comparison of six well-known models of the wave bottom boundary layer shows that they are identical in the case of a smooth
bottom but exhibit serious differences for the other types of conditions. The thickness of the wave bottom boundary layer
and the coefficient of vertical diffusion of momentum are studied by using the relations of the k-ε-model. The validity of these estimates is checked by comparing the measured and computed values of the friction velocity.
This comparison demonstrates fairly good agreement between the results characterized by a coefficient of correlation equal
to 0.851.
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Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 54–67, November–December, 2005. 相似文献
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V. M. Kushnir 《Physical Oceanography》1997,8(1):29-38
Experimentally-derived data are used to scrutinize structural peculiarities of the upper boundary of deep near-bottom layer
in the Black Sea. Thermal fluxes through the layer’s upper boundary have been evaluated and compared with the geothermal fluxes.
Although there is significant divergence between the individual evaluations, the quantities at issue generally agree with
one another. It is shown that in evaluating thermal fluxes, it is necessary to consider fine structure of the differential-diffusive
type. Stability of the upper boundary of the deep near-bottom layer has been examined, and diagrams of stability/instability
resulting from the development of convection have been plotted.
Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
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We describe the methodology and software developed for the numerical analysis of the characteristics of the horizontal and vertical structure of geostrophic currents. We present the results of computation of these characteristics according to the data of the summer survey of the Black Sea carried out as a part of the ComSBlack-92 program. The distinctive features of the space structure of geostrophic currents discovered as a result and the established parameters of their variability may supplement the existing data on the current field in the Black Sea. 相似文献
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V. M. Kushnir 《Physical Oceanography》1995,6(3):229-236
Data on the fine vertical structure of currents and hydrological elements in the Black Sea, obtained through the use of a hydrophysical OLT profiler, are examined. Vertical exchange coefficients are evaluated, whose distribution is characterized by the occurrence of minima in the seasonal pycnocline and main halocline, a maximum in the core of the cold intermediate layer (CIL), and relatively steady values within the 300–500 m layer. The vertical exchange coefficient values, are consistent with the data acquired through other techniques, and the profiles of this parameter vertically are more detailed.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
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D. G. Kushnir 《Geotectonics》2006,40(5):399-404
The relationships between the main tectonic features in the north of central and western Siberia are analyzed on the basis of the available geologic and geophysical data. The chain of troughs and syneclises, including the Yenisei-Khatanga Foredeep, the Lena-Anabar Trough, and the Ust-Yenisei and Yamal-Gydan syneclises are bounded in the north and south by systems of swells of approximately the same size and age. It is suggested that these swells, having appeared simultaneously with the troughs, were eroded subsequently and then buried beneath the Mesozoic-Cenozoic sediments. 相似文献
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We discuss the current state of the problem of experimental investigation of the bottom boundary layer of the Black Sea and
present the data on a new measuring complex (designed and constructed at the Marine Hydrophysical Institute and called the
OLT-D profilometer of the bottom layer) together with some results of its application. On the basis of the analysis of the
data on the distributions of geothermal fluxes and parameters of the bottom boundary layer in the deep-water part of the sea,
we deduce and justify the relations for the evaluation of the critical thickness of the bottom boundary layer as a function
of the intensities of geothermal fluxes. It is shown that the numerical results are in good agreement with the data of direct
measurements of the thickness of the bottom boundary layer.
Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev 相似文献