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1.
Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE LiDAR ground returns (point data classified as ground after the removal of vegetation and buildings) indicated that another round of filtering could reduce commission errors. Two SLR scenarios of 0.75 (best-case) to 1.9 m (worst-case) (Vermeer and Rahmstorf Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:21527–21532, 2009) were considered, and the DEMs were used to identify areas vulnerable to flooding. Our results indicate that if no adaptive strategies are taken, a loss ranging from $18.7 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $296 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for Hydrologically Connected (HC; marine inundation) and Hydrologically Disconnected (HD; drainage problems due to a higher water table) areas combined is possible for Kahului; a loss ranging from $57.5 million under the best-case SLR scenario to $394 million under the worst-case SLR scenario for HC and HD areas combined is possible for Lahaina towards the end of the century. This loss would be attributable to inundation between 0.55 km2 to 2.13 km2 of area for Kahului, and 0.04 km2 to 0.37 km2 of area for Lahaina.  相似文献   

2.
Expert elicitation studies have become important barometers of scientific knowledge about future climate change (Morgan and Keith, Environ Sci Technol 29(10), 1995; Reilly et al., Science 293(5529):430–433, 2001; Morgan et al., Climate Change 75(1–2):195–214, 2006; Zickfeld et al., Climatic Change 82(3–4):235–265, 2007, Proc Natl Acad Sci 2010; Kriegler et al., Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(13):5041–5046, 2009). Elicitations incorporate experts’ understanding of known flaws in climate models, thus potentially providing a more comprehensive picture of uncertainty than model-driven methods. The goal of standard elicitation procedures is to determine experts’ subjective probabilities for the values of key climate variables. These methods assume that experts’ knowledge can be captured by subjective probabilities—however, foundational work in decision theory has demonstrated this need not be the case when their information is ambiguous (Ellsberg, Q J Econ 75(4):643–669, 1961). We show that existing elicitation studies may qualitatively understate the extent of experts’ uncertainty about climate change. We designed a choice experiment that allows us to empirically determine whether experts’ knowledge about climate sensitivity (the equilibrium surface warming that results from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration) can be captured by subjective probabilities. Our results show that, even for this much studied and well understood quantity, a non-negligible proportion of climate scientists violate the choice axioms that must be satisfied for subjective probabilities to adequately describe their beliefs. Moreover, the cause of their violation of the axioms is the ambiguity in their knowledge. We expect these results to hold to a greater extent for less understood climate variables, calling into question the veracity of previous elicitations for these quantities. Our experimental design provides an instrument for detecting ambiguity, a valuable new source of information when linking climate science and climate policy which can help policy makers select decision tools appropriate to our true state of knowledge.  相似文献   

3.
On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The Earth has warmed at an unprecedented pace in the decades of the 1980s and 1990s (IPCC in Climate change 2007: the scientific basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007). In Wu et al. (Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104:14889–14894, 2007) we showed that the rapidity of the warming in the late twentieth century was a result of concurrence of a secular warming trend and the warming phase of a multidecadal (~65-year period) oscillatory variation and we estimated the contribution of the former to be about 0.08°C per decade since ~1980. Here we demonstrate the robustness of those results and discuss their physical links, considering in particular the shape of the secular trend and the spatial patterns associated with the secular trend and the multidecadal variability. The shape of the secular trend and rather globally-uniform spatial pattern associated with it are both suggestive of a response to the buildup of well-mixed greenhouse gases. In contrast, the multidecadal variability tends to be concentrated over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and particularly over the North Atlantic, suggestive of a possible link to low frequency variations in the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Depending upon the assumed importance of the contributions of ocean dynamics and the time-varying aerosol emissions to the observed trends in global-mean surface temperature, we estimate that up to one third of the late twentieth century warming could have been a consequence of natural variability.  相似文献   

4.
Given the well-documented campaign in the USA to deny the reality and seriousness of anthropogenic climate change (a major goal of which is to “manufacture uncertainty” in the minds of policy-makers and the general public), we examine the influence that perception of the scientific agreement on global warming has on the public’s beliefs about global warming and support for government action to reduce emissions. A recent study by Ding et al. (Nat Clim Chang 1:462–466, 2011) using nationally representative survey data from 2010 finds that misperception of scientific agreement among climate scientists is associated with lower levels of support for climate policy and beliefs that action should be taken to deal with global warming. Our study replicates and extends Ding et al. (Nat Clim Chang 1:462–466, 2011) using nationally representative survey data from March 2012. We generally confirm their findings, suggesting that the crucial role of perceived scientific agreement on views of global warming and support for climate policy is robust. Further, we show that political orientation has a significant influence on perceived scientific agreement, global warming beliefs, and support for government action to reduce emissions. Our results suggest the importance of improving public perception of the scientific agreement on global warming, but in ways that do not trigger or aggravate ideological or partisan divisions.  相似文献   

5.
The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.  相似文献   

6.
Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.  相似文献   

7.
Fifty-four broadband models for computation of solar diffuse irradiation on horizontal surface were tested in Romania (South-Eastern Europe). The input data consist of surface meteorological data, column integrated data, and data derived from satellite measurements. The testing procedure is performed in 21 stages intended to provide information about the sensitivity of the models to various sets of input data. There is no model to be ranked “the best” for all sets of input data. However, some of the models performed better than others, in the sense that they were ranked among the best for most of the testing stages. The best models for solar diffuse radiation computation are, on equal footing, ASHRAE 2005 model (ASHRAE 2005) and King model (King and Buckius, Solar Energy 22:297–301, 1979). The second best model is MAC model (Davies, Bound Layer Meteor 9:33–52, 1975). Details about the performance of each model in the 21 testing stages are found in the Electronic Supplementary Material.  相似文献   

8.
Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):295-302
Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change commits its parties to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Authors of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b) offered some insight into what negotiators might consider dangerous by highlighting five “reasons for concern” (RFC’s) and tracking concern against changes in global mean temperature; they illustrated their assessments in the now iconic “burning embers” diagram. The Fourth Assessment Report reaffirmed the value of plotting RFC’s against temperature change (IPCC 2007a, b), and Smith et al. (2009) produced an unpated embers visualization for the globe. This paper applies the same assessment and communication strategies to calibrate the comparable RFC’s for the United States. It adds “National Security Concern” as a sixth RFC because many now see changes in the intensity and/or frequency of extreme events around the world as “risk enhancers” that deserve attention at the highest levels of the US policy and research communities. The US embers portrayed here suggest that: (1) US policy-makers will not discover anything really “dangerous” over the near to medium term if they consider only economic impacts that are aggregated across the entire country but that (2) they could easily uncover “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” by focusing their attention on changes in the intensities, frequencies, and regional distributions of extreme weather events driven by climate change.  相似文献   

9.
A new approach is proposed to predict concentration fluctuations in the framework of one-particle Lagrangian stochastic models. The approach is innovative since it allows the computation of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes using a Lagrangian one-particle model with micromixing but with no need for the simulating of background particles. The extension of the model for the treatment of chemically reactive plumes is also accomplished and allows the computation of plume-related chemical reactions in a Lagrangian one-particle framework separately from the background chemical reactions, accounting for the effect of concentration fluctuations on chemical reactions in a general, albeit approximate, manner. These characteristics should make the proposed approach an ideal tool for plume-in-grid calculations in chemistry transport models. The results are compared to the wind-tunnel experiments of Fackrell and Robins (J Fluid Mech, 117:1–26, 1982) for plume dispersion in a neutral boundary layer and to the measurements of Legg et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 35:277–302, 1986) for line source dispersion in and above a model canopy. Preliminary reacting plume simulations are also shown comparing the model with the experimental results of Brown and Bilger (J Fluid Mech, 312:373–407, 1996; Atmos Environ, 32:611–628, 1998) to demonstrate the feasibility of computing chemical reactions in the proposed framework.  相似文献   

10.
N. Scafetta 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):175-192
Herein I propose a multi-scale dynamical analysis to facilitate the physical interpretation of tide gauge records. The technique uses graphical diagrams. It is applied to six secular-long tide gauge records representative of the world oceans: Sydney, Pacific coast of Australia; Fremantle, Indian Ocean coast of Australia; New York City, Atlantic coast of USA; Honolulu, US state of Hawaii; San Diego, US state of California; and Venice, Mediterranean Sea, Italy. For comparison, an equivalent analysis is applied to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index and to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Finally, a global reconstruction of sea level (Jevrejeva et al. in Geophys Res Lett 35:L08715, 2008) and a reconstruction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (Luterbacher et al. in Geophys Res Lett 26:2745–2748, 1999) are analyzed and compared: both sequences cover about three centuries from 1700 to 2000. The proposed methodology quickly highlights oscillations and teleconnections among the records at the decadal and multidecadal scales. At the secular time scales tide gauge records present relatively small (positive or negative) accelerations, as found in other studies (Houston and Dean in J Coast Res 27:409–417, 2011). On the contrary, from the decadal to the secular scales (up to 110-year intervals) the tide gauge accelerations oscillate significantly from positive to negative values mostly following the PDO, AMO and NAO oscillations. In particular, the influence of a large quasi 60–70 year natural oscillation is clearly demonstrated in these records. The multiscale dynamical evolutions of the rate and of the amplitude of the annual seasonal cycle of the chosen six tide gauge records are also studied.  相似文献   

11.
The unit root testing within a breaking trend framework for global and hemispheric temperatures of Gay-Garcia, Estrada and Sánchez Clim Chang 94:333–349, 2009 is extended in two directions: first, the extended HadCRUT3 temperature series from Brohan et al. J Geophys Res 111:D12106, 2006 are used and, second, new breaking trend estimators and unit root tests are employed, along with direct modelling of breaking trend and unit root processes for the series. Some differences to the results of Gay-Garcia et al. are found: break dates are shifted to 1976 for global and northern hemisphere temperatures and to 1964 for the southern hemisphere. Although the results are somewhat ambiguous, global and northern hemisphere temperatures are probably best modelled by unit root processes with a break in drift, while southern hemisphere temperatures follow a breaking trend process with stationary fluctuations about this trend. Irrespective of the models selected, there is little evidence of trend warming before the breaks, i.e., until the third quarter of the 20th century, and after the breaks northern hemisphere and global trend temperatures warm quicker than in the southern hemisphere, the range being between 0.01 and 0.02 °C per annum.  相似文献   

12.
We present further steps in our analysis of the early anthropogenic hypothesis (Ruddiman, Clim Change 61:261–293, 2003) that increased levels of greenhouse gases in the current interglacial, compared to lower levels in previous interglacials, were initiated by early agricultural activities, and that these increases caused a warming of climate long before the industrial era (～1750). These steps include updating observations of greenhouse gas and climate trends from earlier interglacials, reviewing recent estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from early agriculture, and describing a simulation by a climate model with a dynamic ocean forced by the low levels of greenhouse gases typical of previous interglacials in order to gauge the magnitude of the climate change for an inferred (natural) low greenhouse gas level relative to a high present day level. We conduct two time slice (equilibrium) simulations using present day orbital forcing and two levels of greenhouse gas forcing: the estimated low (natural) levels of previous interglacials, and the high levels of the present (control). By comparing the former to the latter, we estimate how much colder the climate would be without the combined greenhouse gas forcing of the early agriculture era (inferred from differences between this interglacial and previous interglacials) and the industrial era (the period since ～1750). With the low greenhouse gas levels, the global average surface temperature is 2.7 K lower than present day—ranging from ～2 K lower in the tropics to 4–8 K lower in polar regions. These changes are large, and larger than those reported in a pre-industrial (～1750) simulation with this model, because the imposed low greenhouse gas levels (CH4 = 450 ppb, CO2 = 240 ppm) are lower than both pre-industrial (CH4 = 760 ppb, CO2 = 280 ppm) and modern control (CH4 = 1,714 ppb, CO2 = 355 ppm) values. The area of year-round snowcover is larger, as found in our previous simulations and some other modeling studies, indicating that a state of incipient glaciation would exist given the current configuration of earth’s orbit (reduced insolation in northern hemisphere summer) and the imposed low levels of greenhouse gases. We include comparisons of these snowcover maps with known locations of earlier glacial inception and with locations of twentieth century glaciers and ice caps. In two earlier studies, we used climate models consisting of atmosphere, land surface, and a shallow mixed-layer ocean (Ruddiman et al., Quat Sci Rev 25:1–10, 2005; Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008). Here, we replaced the mixed-layer ocean with a complete dynamic ocean. While the simulated climate of the atmosphere and the surface with this improved model configuration is similar to our earlier results (Vavrus et al., Quat Sci Rev 27:1410–1425, 2008), the added information from the full dynamical ocean is of particular interest. The global and vertically-averaged ocean temperature is 1.25 K lower, the area of sea ice is larger, and there is less upwelling in the Southern Ocean. From these results, we infer that natural ocean feedbacks could have amplified the greenhouse gas changes initiated by early agriculture and possibly account for an additional increment of CO2 increase beyond that attributed directly to early agricultural, as proposed by Ruddiman (Rev Geophys 45:RG4001, 2007). However, a full test of the early anthropogenic hypothesis will require additional observations and simulations with models that include ocean and land carbon cycles and other refinements elaborated herein.  相似文献   

13.
Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459–477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.  相似文献   

14.
Global Circulation Models (GCMs) provide projections for future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions ??drivers??: population p, standard of living g, energy productivity (or efficiency) f and energy carbonization c (IPCC WG III 2007). The range of scenarios considered is extremely broad, however, and this is a primary source of forecast uncertainty (Stott and Kettleborough, Nature 416:723?C725, 2002). Here, it is shown both theoretically and observationally how the evolution of the human system can be considered from a surprisingly simple thermodynamic perspective in which it is unnecessary to explicitly model two of the emissions drivers: population and standard of living. Specifically, the human system grows through a self-perpetuating feedback loop in which the consumption rate of primary energy resources stays tied to the historical accumulation of global economic production??or p×g??through a time-independent factor of 9.7±0.3 mW per inflation-adjusted 1990 US dollar. This important constraint, and the fact that f and c have historically varied rather slowly, points towards substantially narrowed visions of future emissions scenarios for implementation in GCMs.  相似文献   

15.
Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.  相似文献   

16.
Chris Hope 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):531-543
PAGE09 is an updated version of the PAGE2002 integrated assessment model (Hope 2011a). The default PAGE09 model gives a mean estimate of the social cost of CO2 (SCCO2) of $106 per tonne of CO2, compared to $81 from the PAGE2002 model used in the Stern review (Stern 2007). The increase is the net result of several improvements that have been incorporated into the PAGE09 model in response to the critical debate around the Stern review: the adoption of the A1B socio-economic scenario, rather than A2 whose population assumptions are now thought to be implausible; the use of ranges for the two components of the discount rate, rather than the single values used in the Stern review; a distribution for the climate sensitivity that is consistent with the latest estimates from IPCC 2007a; less adaptation than in PAGE2002, particularly in the economic sector, which was criticised for possibly being over-optimistic; and a more theoretically-justified basis of valuation that gives results appropriate to a representative agent from the focus region, the EU. The effect of each of these adjustments is quantified and explained.  相似文献   

17.
Communicating information about consistency in projections is crucial to the successful understanding, interpretation and appropriate application of information from climate models about future climate and its uncertainties. However, mapping the consistency of model projections in such a way that this information is communicated clearly remains a challenge that several recently published papers have sought to address in the run up to the IPCC AR5. We highlight that three remaining issues have not been fully addressed by the literature to date. Allen and Ingram (Nature 419:224, 2002) While additional information about regions where projected changes in rainfall are not ‘statistically significant’ can provide useful information for policy, the spatial scale at which changes are assessed has a substantial impact on the signal-to-noise ratio, and thus the detectability of changes. We demonstrate that by spatially smoothing the model projections we can provide more information about the nature of the signal for larger regions of the world. Christensen et al. (2007) Combining information about magnitude, consistency and statistical significance of projected changes in a single map can cause reduced legibility. We demonstrate the difficulty in finding a ‘universal’ method suitable for a wide range of audiences DEFRA (2012) We highlight that regions where projected changes in average rainfall are not statistically significant, changes in variability may still cause significant impacts. We stress the need to communicate this effectively in order to avoid mis-leading users. Finally, we comment on regions of the world where messages for users of climate information about ensemble consistency have changed since AR4, noting that these changes are due largely to changes in the methods of measuring consistency rather than any discernable differences between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles.  相似文献   

18.
Eddy-correlation measurements of the oceanic \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux are useful for the development and validation of air–sea gas exchange models and for analysis of the marine carbon cycle. Results from more than a decade of published work and from two recent field programs illustrate the principal interferences from water vapour and motion, demonstrating experimental approaches for improving measurement precision and accuracy. Water vapour cross-sensitivity is the greatest source of error for \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux measurements using infrared gas analyzers, often leading to a ten-fold bias in the measured \(\hbox {CO}_2\) flux. Much of this error is not related to optical contamination, as previously supposed. While various correction schemes have been demonstrated, the use of an air dryer and closed-path analyzer is the most effective way to eliminate this interference. This approach also obviates density corrections described by Webb et al. (Q J R Meteorol 106:85–100, 1980). Signal lag and frequency response are a concern with closed-path systems, but periodic gas pulses at the inlet tip provide for precise determination of lag time and frequency attenuation. Flux attenuation corrections are shown to be \(<\) 5 % for a cavity ring-down analyzer (CRDS) and dryer with a 60-m inlet line. The estimated flux detection limit for the CRDS analyzer and dryer is a factor of ten better than for IRGAs sampling moist air. While ship-motion interference is apparent with all analyzers tested in this study, decorrelation or regression methods are effective in removing most of this bias from IRGA measurements and may also be applicable to the CRDS.  相似文献   

19.
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20.
The high quality inventory is an important step to greenhouse gas emission mitigation. The inventory quality is estimated by means of the uncertainty analysis. The level of uncertainty depends upon the reliability of activity data and the parameters used. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of the estimates through a shift from production-based method (IPCC Tier 1) (IPCC 2000) to enhanced combination of production-based and mass balance methods (IPCC Tier 2) (IPCC 2006) in the estimation of emissions from operations with oil that are key in the national greenhouse gas inventory of the Russian Federation. The IPCC Tier 2 (IPCC 2006) was adapted for the national conditions. The greenhouse gas emissions were calculated for 1990 to 2009 with the use of both methods. The quantitative uncertainty assessment of the calculations was performed, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison showed that the estimates made with the use of higher tier method resulted in higher accuracy and lower uncertainties (26 % respectively compared to previously derived 54 %).  相似文献   

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