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1.
Computer-based Model for Flood Evacuation Emergency Planning 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach. It simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety. The model is conceptualized around the flooding conditions (physical and management) and the main set of social and mental factors that determine human behavior before and during the flood evacuation. The number of families under the flood threat, population in the process of evacuation, inundation of refuge routes, flood conditions (precipitation, river elevation, etc.), and different flood warnings and evacuation orders related variables are among the large set of variables included in the model. They are linked to the concern that leads to the danger recognition, which triggers evacuation decisions that determine the number of people being evacuated. The main purpose of the model is to assess the effectiveness of different flood emergency management procedures. Each procedure consists of the choice of flood warning method, warning consistency, timing of evacuation order, coherence of the community, upstream flooding conditions, and set of weights assigned to different warning distribution methods. Model use and effectiveness are tested through the evaluation of the effectiveness of different flood evacuation emergency options in the Red River Basin, Canada. 相似文献
2.
Luca Piciullo Stefano Luigi Gariano Massimo Melillo Maria Teresa Brunetti Silvia Peruccacci Fausto Guzzetti Michele Calvello 《Landslides》2017,14(3):995-1008
A process chain for the definition and the performance assessment of an operational regional warning model for rainfall-induced landslides, based on rainfall thresholds, is proposed and tested in a landslide-prone area in the Campania region, southern Italy. A database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003–2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall threshold equations are defined applying a well-known frequentist method to all the reconstructed rainfall conditions responsible for the documented landslides in the area of analysis. Several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities (percentiles) are evaluated, and nine different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, for each combination, the issuing of warning levels is computed by comparing, over time, the measured rainfall with the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system, i.e. the one providing the best model performance in terms of success and error indicators, is selected employing the “event, duration matrix, performance” (EDuMaP) method. 相似文献
3.
山洪影响调查评价与预警体系建设方法研究——以昌江芦溪河段为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以山洪影响调查成果为基础,评价了昌江芦溪河段受洪水影响的程度,建立了水位预警指标体系和水文预报模型。得出的主要结论有:昌江芦溪河段洪水影响机率不到5年一遇,罗村最典型,个别年份重复受灾,属典型的山洪影响威胁区;以既有水文站点为基础,建立了水文站点的水位与上下游村落淹没基础信息的量化关联,形成"1对N"的预警关联体系,标定了集合对象的成灾水位(75.50m),分析结论与实际调查结果吻合;研究了昌江流域产汇流规律,建立了预报模型。本文的评价思路与预警体系构架方法可以作为完善山洪灾害非工程措施、中小河流水文监测系统实际应用的参考,对各地正在开展的山洪灾害调查评价工作具有参考意义。 相似文献
4.
基于机器学习的区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
中国滑坡灾害严重,区域滑坡灾害预警是防灾减灾的重要手段之一,预警模型是开展区域滑坡灾害预警的关键问题。本文系统开展了基于机器学习的区域滑坡灾害预警模型研究,并以四川省青川县为例,基于近10年地质与气象数据,构建了青川县区域滑坡灾害预警模型并开展实例校验。研究得出如下结论:(1)提出了基于机器学习的区域滑坡灾害预警模型的构建方法,主要包括训练样本集构建、样本学习训练与优化建模、模型保存与预警输出等几个关键步骤。(2)提出了区域滑坡训练样本集的构建方法,即以正样本为基础,在时空约束条件下随机采样获取负样本,最终获得完整的训练样本集。(3)样本学习训练中,以训练样本集的80%作为训练集,20%作为测试集,进行5折交叉验证,采用精确度、ROC曲线和AUC值校验模型准确度和模型泛化能力。采用贝叶斯优化算法进行模型优化。(4)实际预警中,调用训练好的预警模型输出滑坡灾害可能发生的概率。依据概率大小,分级确定预警等级。分级依据为:当输出概率P≥40%且P＜60%时,发布黄色预警;当输出概率P≥60%且P＜80%时,发布橙色预警;当输出概率P≥80%时,发布红色预警。(5)以青川县为例,构建了青川县区域滑坡训练样本集,采用6种机器学习算法进行模型训练,结果显示随机森林算法表现最好,其准确率最高(0.963),模型无过拟合现象,模型泛化能力最好(AUC=0.986);其次为逻辑回归算法;再次为人工神经网络算法和决策树算法。选取2018年6月26日的青川县日常预警业务进行实例校验。结果显示:当日17处滑坡灾害点中,100%的灾害点全部落入预警区范围内,其中:70.6%的滑坡落在红色预警区内,17.6%的滑坡落在橙色预警区内,11.8%的滑坡落在黄色预警区内。 相似文献
5.
地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究 总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8
通过总结分析国内外经验和新认识,文章把地质灾害区域预警原理初步划分为隐式统计预警、显式统计预警和动力预警三种类型。隐式统计预警是把地质环境因素的作用隐含在降雨参数中,仅仅考虑降雨参数建立模型的方法。显式统计预警是一种把地质环境因素变化与激发因素相迭加耦合而后建立判据模型的预警方法。动力预警是一种考虑地质体在降雨过程中自身动力变化过程而建立数学物理判据方程的方法,实质上是一种解析预警方法。本文以系统工程思想为指导,比较全面地架构了显式统计预警系统的设计方法,包括需求分析、问题表述、目标设定、设计原则、图层设计、系统建模、系统运算、预警等级确定、产品生成、产品会商、产品发布、预警校验、预警决策、应急行动、成本收益分析和系统完善升级等内容。这项设计研究为具体研发设计某个地区的预警系统提供了思想平台,为建立国家、省和市(县)分层级联动的地质灾害区域预警体系提供了技术路线。 相似文献
6.
The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals’ decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants’ interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants’ approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface. 相似文献
7.
泥石流是一种多发的地质灾害,常对人民生命财产安全带来极大的威胁,其暴发不仅与降雨有关,还与众多地质环境因子相关。本文以流域面积、松散物质比率、沟床平均坡度为地质因子,以最大小时雨强（T）和总降雨量（R）的乘积作为降雨指数,在获取的泥石流地质因子和降雨指数因子综合样本库的基础上,采用遗传规划法建立了泥石流临界降雨指数智能预测模型,克服了以往以雨量为单一指标的预警模型的弊端,模型验证结果显示,泥石流预测精度高、适应性强。 相似文献
8.
掌握水下盾构隧道运营期结构正常响应规律是进行结构异常响应预警的前提。基于武汉长江隧道健康监测系统,首次获得了长期运营过程中（2013－2020年）管片应变监测数据,系统研究了应变增量分布规律、应变增量与温度增量和水位增量的关联关系、以及相邻管片应变增量空间的关联关系,提出了基于应变增量的结构异常响应预警方法并确定了相应的预警阈值。研究结果表明：（1）正常运营期应变增量分布尾部比正态分布更重,指数分布可以较好地描述应变增量绝对值的分布规律;（2）应变增量难以预测,但是其变化范围可以通过统计分析确定,据此可提出一种结构异常响应单测点预警方法并确定其预警阈值;（3）正常运营期间,相邻管片应变增量存在一种“你胀我缩”的变形模式,使得相邻管片平均应变增量能被约束在一个相对较小的变化范围,据此可提出一种结构异常响应多测点联合预警方法并确定其预警阈值。 相似文献
9.
Bangyou Jiang Lianguo Wang Yinlong Lu Chunqiu Wang Dan Ma 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(20):743
Rockbursts annually cause hundreds of casualties and huge economic losses in China. The possibility of rockbursts occurring in a deep island, fully mechanized caving coal face is much higher than in a normal face. To predict and prevent rockbursts in this type of coal face, a comprehensive approach based on multi-instrument monitoring, including microseismic (MS) monitoring, electromagnetic emission (EME) monitoring, and the drilling cutting method (DCM), has been proposed. The case of working face 1304 in the Yangcheng coal mine in Shandong Province, China, was analyzed to test the combined early warning method. In situ investigations showed many early warning precursors before a rockburst, such as a period of silence in MS activity, persistent rising of EME intensity values and pulse numbers, and a large jolt of EME. Based on the quantitative early warning indexes, the combined early warning method for rockbursts in coal face 1304 was established, which mainly includes three rockburst risk judgment conditions and one rockburst risk identification condition. This method has been applied to rockburst forecasting in the Yangcheng coal mine. The application showed that this comprehensive approach could accurately identify potential rockburst risks and trigger early warnings. The case study demonstrated that the likelihood of a rockburst occurring can be forecasted by the combined early warning method based on multi-instrument monitoring. 相似文献
10.
对滑坡监测预警相关问题的认识与思考 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来,随着科技的迅猛发展,监测预警已成为主动防范地质灾害的重要手段,国家每年投入大量的人力物力财力开展滑坡预警工作。但调查发现,不少相关从业人员(主要是专业技术人员和管理人员)对滑坡监测预警方面的一些基本问题还存在误区甚至错误的认识,严重影响其防灾减灾效果。结合近年来在滑坡监测预警实践中的研究成果和经验教训,本文重点就滑坡监测和预警方面的一些问题提出了自己的认识。其主要观点包括:并不是监测点和监测手段越多就越有效,滑坡监测应突出针对性、实用性和目的性,监测方案设计及具体监测内容都应为滑坡预警提供依据。不少滑坡的发生具有一定的突发性,应采用具自动变频功能的监测设备才能获取滑坡全过程尤其是临滑阶段完整的数据,为科学预警提供保障。监测仅是手段,预警才是目的,不仅要重视滑坡的监测工作,更应高度重视预警工作,且应同时加强区域性气象预警和单体滑坡预警工作。目前常用的阈值预警方法误报、漏报率较高,应将预警的重心转移到对历史数据的统计分析和基于变形、地下水位、雨量等关键指标的预警模型和判据研究,据此提高滑坡预警的准确性和实用性。 相似文献
11.
降雨是诱发地质灾害的重要因素之一,中国大陆于2003年启动的区域地质灾害气象预警取得了较好成效,目前区域地质灾害气象预警业务逐步从地质灾害发生的"危险性"预警向"风险性"预警转变,开展区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型研究具有重要意义。本文总结提出了区域地质灾害气象风险预警概化模型及其计算方法,以四川省青川县为例,构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,并以典型实例进行了预警效果校验。（1）区域地质灾害风险预警指数（R）可以概化为地质灾害潜势度（Q）、降雨诱发因子（T）和地质灾害承灾体脆弱性指标（V）三者的乘积,并分别给出了三者的计算公式。（2）构建了青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警模型,给出了根据预警指数值划分区域地质灾害气象风险预警等级的依据,提出当Q、T、V中两项达到高等级（0.8）,一项达到较高等级（0.6）时,为红色预警;当Q、T、V中两项达到较高等级（0.6）,一项达到中等级（0.3）时,为橙色预警;当Q、T、V中一项达到较高等级（0.6）,两项达到中等级（0.3）时,为黄色预警。（3）以2018年6月26日为典型实例,模拟了四川青川县区域地质灾害气象风险预警实况并进行校验,结果显示94.1%的灾害点位于预警区范围内 相似文献
12.
Simple monitoring method for precaution of landslides watching tilting and water contents on slopes surface 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Taro Uchimura Ikuo Towhata Trinh Thi Lan Anh Jou Fukuda Carlos J. B. Bautista Lin Wang Ichiro Seko Taro Uchida Akira Matsuoka Yosuke Ito Yuichi Onda Sho Iwagami Min-Seok Kim Naoki Sakai 《Landslides》2010,7(3):351-357
A low-cost and simple monitoring method for early warning of landslides is proposed. To detect abnormal deformation of a slope, this method employs a tilt sensor in place of an extensometer on the slope surface. In order to examine the relevance of measuring rotation angle on a slope surface by tilt sensor, model tests were conducted, and rotation on the slope surface was observed together with slide displacement along the surface. The rotation data responded 30 min before failure in a model test, which could be useful as a signal for early warning. However, the behavior of rotation before failure varies from case to case, and thus, criteria to issue warning should be defined more carefully. For a model slope made of uniform loose sand, measurement of slide displacement along the slope surface is sensitive to failure at the toe, while the measurement of rotation on the slope surface is useful to detect the development of progressive failure upward along the slope. Wireless sensor units with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) tilt sensor and volumetric water content sensor were also examined on a real slope in Kobe City, and a long-term monitoring was attempted. A simple but possible way to define the criteria of judgment to issue warning can be proposed based on combination of data obtained by the tilt sensors and volumetric water content sensors. 相似文献
13.
基于设计安全系数及破坏模式的边坡开挖过程动态变形监测预警方法研究 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
由于地质和结构特征的不同造成的边坡变形破坏机制存在差异以及同一边坡在不同施工开挖阶段的变形规律和量值也存在差别,采用工程类比方法获得的单一的静态的边坡监测预警指标无法表达某一边坡在施工开挖过程中动态的变形规律和特征,针对该问题提出了基于设计安全系数和破坏模式的边坡开挖过程中动态变形监测预警指标的研究思路和方法,并将其应用于糯扎渡水电站溢洪道消力塘边坡755～740 m开挖过程变形监测预警指标的确定,通过与现场监测结果的对比分析表明,该边坡开挖过程中是稳定的,分析与工程实际是相符的。研究表明,基于设计安全系数和破坏模式的边坡开挖过程动态监测预警指标的研究思路和方法用于边坡在开挖过程中动态变形监测预警是可行和有效的。 相似文献
14.
A review of advances in China’s flash flood early-warning system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Changjun Liu Liang Guo Lei Ye Shunfu Zhang Yanzeng Zhao Tianyu Song 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(2):619-634
This paper summarizes the main flash flood early-warning systems of America, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan China and discusses their advantages and disadvantages. The latest development in flash flood prevention is also presented. China’s flash flood prevention system involves three stages. Herein, the warning methods and achievements in the first two stages are introduced in detail. Based on the worldwide experience of flash flood early-warning systems, the general research idea of the third stage is proposed from the viewpoint of requirements for flash flood prevention and construction progress of the next stage in China. Real-time dynamic warning systems can be applied to the early-warning platform at four levels (central level, provincial level, municipal level, and county level) . Through this, soil moisture, peak flow, and water level can be calculated in real-time using distributed hydrological models, and then flash flood warning indexes can be computed based on defined thresholds of runoff and water level. A compound warning index (CWI) can be applied to regions where rainfall and water level are measured by simple equipment. In this manner, flash-flood-related factors such as rainfall intensity and antecedent and cumulative rainfall depths can be determined using the CWI method. The proposed methodology for the third stage could support flash flood prevention measures in the 13th 5-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (2016–2020). The research achievements will serve as a guidance for flash flood monitoring and warning as well as flood warning in medium and small rivers. 相似文献
15.
北京山区泥石流预警阈值初步研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
泥石流预警阈值,是突发地质灾害防灾减灾的重要参考指标。本文结合北京山区泥石流灾害特点和已有降雨阈值研究成果,一方面在泥石流沟易发性、物源和危害人数进行分级的基础上,提出不同级别沟谷在不同前期降雨条件下,不同发灾概率的激发雨量,极大地方便了中短期预警实际工作;另一方面将泥石流流域降雨量、土壤含水率、次声、泥位4个参数,作为泥石流短临灾害预警关键物理参数,开展了泥石流专业监测设备预警阈值研究。最终,从技术层面上构建不同时间维度的泥石流监测预警阈值体系,为北京山区泥石流监测预警提供技术支持。 相似文献
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基于ARCGIS的矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
为了实现与环境协调的矿产资源开采,提出建立并开发了矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统。以美国大型软件ARCGIS为开发平台,采用ARCMap Object开发方法开发了矿山开采沉陷灾害预警系统;建立了该系统计算参数的位移反分析模型,引入单纯形优化方法,编制了系统计算参数的位移反分析模块;进行了实例计算分析。第1个实例分析了某工作面开采引起的地表沉陷灾害,并与CXYJ2001的计算结果对比,验证了系统的计算可靠性,并展示了系统的功能。第2个实例是对江苏姚桥煤矿开采方案引起的地表沉陷灾害预警分析,优化了开采方案。研究表明,系统是实现与环境协调的矿产资源开采的重要辅助手段。最后,介绍了进一步工作的方向。 相似文献
18.
Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Tsung-Yi Pan Lung-Yao Chang Jihn-Sung Lai Hsiang-Kuan Chang Cheng-Shang Lee Yih-Chi Tan 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(3):1763-1793
Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations. 相似文献
19.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知... 相似文献
20.
地下矿山岩体失稳预警一直是矿山灾害防治研究的重要课题。为了提高岩体失稳预警的准确性和可靠性,本文提出一种基于尖点突变理论和D-S证据融合理论的综合性预警方法。首先通过建立尖点突变分析模型和D-S证据融合模型得到两种独立预警判据。然后借助风险矩阵融合两种独立预警判据形成综合性预警判据。最后利用矿山实测的微震数据分别对三种预警判据的预警效果进行检验。结果表明:尖点突变模型对岩体失稳的预警效果较差;D-S证据融合模型的鲁棒性较差;综合性预警判据的预警结果与工程实际高度吻合且鲁棒性较好,预测准确性和可靠度明显提高。 相似文献