共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 704 毫秒
1.
Jennifer Miller 《The Professional geographer》2005,57(2):169-184
Predictive vegetation modeling can be used statistically to relate the distribution of vegetation across a landscape as a function of important environmental variables. Often these models are developed without considering the spatial pattern that is inherent in biogeographical data, resulting from either biotic processes or missing or misspecified environmental variables. Including spatial dependence explicitly in a predictive model can be an efficient way to improve model accuracy with the available data. In this study, model residuals were interpolated and added to model predictions, and the resulting prediction accuracies were assessed. Adding kriged residuals improved model accuracy more often than adding simulated residuals, although some alliances showed no improvement or worse accuracy when residuals were added. In general, the prediction accuracies that were not increased by adding kriged residuals were either rare in the sample or had high nonspatial model accuracy. Regression interpolation methods can be an important addition to current tools used in predictive vegetation models as they allow observations that are predicted well by environmental variables to be left alone, while adjusting over‐ and underpredicted observations based on local factors. 相似文献
2.
Instantaneous deformation from continuous GPS: contributions from quasi-periodic loads 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Richard A. Bennett 《Geophysical Journal International》2008,174(3):1052-1064
Continuous GPS (CGPS) coordinate time-series are known to experience repeating deformation signals with seasonal and other periods. It is unlikely that these signals represent perfect sinusoids with temporally constant amplitude. We develop an analysis method that accommodates temporal variations in the amplitudes of sinusoidal signals. We apply the method to simulated coordinate time-series to numerically explore the potential consequences of neglecting decadal variation in amplitude of annual motions on the residual-error spectra of CGPS measurements, as well as potential bias in estimates for secular site velocity. We find that secular velocity bias can be appreciable for shorter time-series, and that residual-error time-series of longer duration may contain significant power in a broad band centred on semi-annual frequency if temporal variation in the amplitude of annual motions is not accounted for in the model used to reduce the observations to residuals. It may be difficult to differentiate the bandpass filtered signature of mismodelled loading signals from power-law noise, using residual-error spectra for shorter time-series. We provide an example application to a ∼9-yr coordinate time-series for a CGPS station located in southern California at Carbon Creek Control Structure (CCCS), which is known to experience large amplitude seasonal motions associated with the Santa Ana aquifer system. 相似文献
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V. Dehant M. Feissel P. Defraigne F. Roosbeek J. Souchay 《Geophysical Journal International》1997,130(2):535-546
The observed time-series of precession/nutation show residuals with respect to an empirical model based on the rigid Earth theoretical nutations and a frequency dependent transfer function with resonances to the Earth's normal modes. These residuals display energy mainly in the frequency domain around 430 and 500 days in the inertial frame. In this frequency band, the energy is possibly related to two normalmode frequencies: the free core nutation (FCN) and the free inner core nutation (FICN). In this paper, we examine the possibility of obtaining this energy from the resonance effect induced by a luni-solar (or planetary) forcing, or by an atmospheric forcing at a frequency very close to these Earth free nutations. The amplification factor due to the resonance is computed from an analytical formula expressed in the case of a simplified three-layer ellipsoidal rotating earth (with an elastic inner core, a liquid outer core and an elastic mantle), as well as the empirical formula based on the analysis of VLBI observations. For the tidal forcing, the theoretical results do not show any resonance at the level of precision we have examined but it is still possible to find one frequency near the FCN or FICN frequencies which could be excited. In contrast, for the atmospheric pressure the level of energy needed could be obtained from the diurnal pressure, depending on the noise level of the Earth's global pressure. We also show that the combination of three waves can explain the observed decrease of energy with time. While the tidal potential amplitudes are too small, a pressure noise level of 0.5 Pa would be sufficient to excite these waves. 相似文献
6.
Locating regional seismic events with global optimization based on interval arithmetic 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Matti Tarvainen Timo Tiira & Eystein S. Husebye 《Geophysical Journal International》1999,138(3):879-885
More than 1000 seismic events in northern Europe at distances of up to 400 km from the detecting network are located using an optimization method in which the global minimum of the traveltime function residuals is searched for using an Interval Arithmetic (IA) method. Epicentres are determined using P waves detected by the Finnish national seismic network: up to 15 stations were used in the analysis. The IA results coincide with locations provided by the University of Helsinki bulletins with a median location bias of 7.6 km.
A second data set of 59 explosions in the Siilinjärvi mine in central Finland was examined in detail, because the locations of the explosions were known exactly. In this case, the median difference of IA locations was 3.8 km from the average location of mine explosions, while all 59 events were located within 9 km of the 'true' epicentres. The corresponding median error of the University of Helsinki locations was smaller (3.2 km), but some Helsinki locations were well over 10 km from the mine. The convergence towards the global optimum using interval arithmetic was fast when compared with the conventional least-squares approaches for epicentre determinations. 相似文献
A second data set of 59 explosions in the Siilinjärvi mine in central Finland was examined in detail, because the locations of the explosions were known exactly. In this case, the median difference of IA locations was 3.8 km from the average location of mine explosions, while all 59 events were located within 9 km of the 'true' epicentres. The corresponding median error of the University of Helsinki locations was smaller (3.2 km), but some Helsinki locations were well over 10 km from the mine. The convergence towards the global optimum using interval arithmetic was fast when compared with the conventional least-squares approaches for epicentre determinations. 相似文献
7.
Jonne Pohjankukka Tapio Pahikkala Paavo Nevalainen Jukka Heikkonen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(10):2001-2019
In machine learning, one often assumes the data are independent when evaluating model performance. However, this rarely holds in practice. Geographic information datasets are an example where the data points have stronger dependencies among each other the closer they are geographically. This phenomenon known as spatial autocorrelation (SAC) causes the standard cross validation (CV) methods to produce optimistically biased prediction performance estimates for spatial models, which can result in increased costs and accidents in practical applications. To overcome this problem, we propose a modified version of the CV method called spatial k-fold cross validation (SKCV), which provides a useful estimate for model prediction performance without optimistic bias due to SAC. We test SKCV with three real-world cases involving open natural data showing that the estimates produced by the ordinary CV are up to 40% more optimistic than those of SKCV. Both regression and classification cases are considered in our experiments. In addition, we will show how the SKCV method can be applied as a criterion for selecting data sampling density for new research area. 相似文献
8.
Vera van Zoest Frank B. Osei Gerard Hoek Alfred Stein 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(5):851-865
ABSTRACT Recently developed urban air quality sensor networks are used to monitor air pollutant concentrations at a fine spatial and temporal resolution. The measurements are however limited to point support. To obtain areal coverage in space and time, interpolation is required. A spatio-temporal regression kriging approach was applied to predict nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations at unobserved space-time locations in the city of Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Prediction maps were created at 25 m spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. In regression kriging, the trend is separately modelled from autocorrelation in the residuals. The trend part of the model, consisting of a set of spatial and temporal covariates, was able to explain 49.2% of the spatio-temporal variability in NO2 concentrations in Eindhoven in November 2016. Spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the residuals was modelled by fitting a sum-metric spatio-temporal variogram model, adding smoothness to the prediction maps. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, resulting in a Root Mean Square Error of 9.91 μg m?3, a Mean Error of ?0.03 μg m?3 and a Mean Absolute Error of 7.29 μg m?3. The method allows for easy prediction and visualization of air pollutant concentrations and can be extended to a near real-time procedure. 相似文献
9.
Zhenhong Du Sensen Wu Mei-Po Kwan Chuanrong Zhang Feng Zhang Renyi Liu 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(10):1927-1947
Spatiotemporal kriging (STK) is recognized as a fundamental space-time prediction method in geo-statistics. Spatiotemporal regression kriging (STRK), which combines space-time regression with STK of the regression residuals, is widely used in various fields, due to its ability to take into account both the external covariate information and spatiotemporal autocorrelation in the sample data. To handle the spatiotemporal non-stationary relationship in the trend component of STRK, this paper extends conventional STRK to incorporate it with an improved geographically and temporally weighted regression (I-GTWR) model. A new geo-statistical model, named geographically and temporally weighted regression spatiotemporal kriging (GTWR-STK), is proposed based on the decomposition of deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. To assess the efficacy of our method, a case study of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) prediction in the coastal areas of Zhejiang, China, for the years 2002 to 2015 was carried out. The results show that the presented method generated reliable results that outperform the GTWR, geographically and temporally weighted regression kriging (GTWR-K) and spatiotemporal ordinary kriging (STOK) models. In addition, employing the optimal spatiotemporal distance obtained by I-GTWR calibration to fit the spatiotemporal variograms of residual mapping is confirmed to be feasible, and it considerably simplifies the residual estimation of STK interpolation. 相似文献
10.
Toshinori Sato 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1135-1143
We develop a systematic approach to the phase identification of late-arriving groups in 2-D seismic data. Waveforms in the same traveltime branch are grouped, and synthetic traveltimes for all phases are calculated using an initial approximation to the 2-D structure. For each group, we identify the two synthetic phases providing the smallest RMS residuals. If their ratio is less than some predetermined threshold, then the group's phase is ambiguous and both assignments must be tested by traveltime inversion. If there are n unidentified groups, we construct 2 n phase tables and perform a traveltime inversion on every plausible phase assignment. The phase table that provides the highest value of the posterior probability density is taken as correct, and a 2-D velocity model is constructed from the data. This approach is shown to be effective and efficient on both simulated and real data. In addition, the residuals associated with late-arriving groups provide a means of identifying deficiencies in the initial model. 相似文献
11.
利用东南极Panda-1站2011年2月至2012年1月期间的辐射观测资料,检验了四种再分析资料在该地区的适用性。结果表明:对各辐射分量ERA interim在Panda-1地区的适用性都明显好于其他三种再分析资料,这主要归因于其四维变分(4D-VAR)数据同化系统的应用、新的云预报方程和改进的参数化方案以及同化了更多的卫星资料雷达等非常规探测资料。对于向下短波辐射,NCEP-1与实测值之间偏差最大(18.7 W·m-2),可能原因是模式对大气透明度的高估和对云量的低估。对反射率模拟的偏差直接导致了各模式对净短波辐射模拟偏差。NCEP-1与JCDAS都低估了Panda-1地区的地表反射率,模式中,地表吸收了更多的向下短波辐射,最终导致对净短波辐射模拟偏高。对向下长波辐射,四种再分析资料都存在不同程度的低估,冬季偏差大于夏季,其中NCEP-1与NCEP-2偏差最大(分别为-62.6 W·m-2和-37.3 W·m-2)。四种再分析资料均不能很好地反映Panda-1地区净辐射的年变化情况,一般而言,夏季偏差小,冬季偏差大。虽然再分析资料存在明显的缺陷和不足,在广袤的东南极高原地区,观测站点稀少,实测资料无法满足需要,再分析资料仍不失为研究东南极地区气候的一种有效工具。 相似文献
12.
C. Dorbath L. Dorbath J. D. Fairhead G. W. Stuart 《Geophysical Journal International》1986,86(3):751-766
Summary. P -wave relative teleseismic residuals were measured for a network of seismological stations along a 300 km profile across the Adamawa Plateau and the Central African Shear Zone of central Cameroon, to determine the variation in crust and upper mantle velocity associated with these structures. A plot of the mean relative residuals for the stations shows a long wavelength (> 300 km) variation of amplitude 0.45 s. the slowest arrivals are located over and just to the north, of the faulted northern margin of the Adamawa Plateau. the residuals do not correlate with topography, surface geology or the previously determined crustal structure, in any simple way.
The Aki inversion technique has been used to invert the relative residuals into a 3-D model of velocity perturbations from a mean earth model. the results show the region is divided roughly into three blocks by two subvertical boundaries, striking ENE and traversing both the crust and upper mantle down to depths greater than 190km. the central block, which is 2 per cent slower than the adjacent blocks, roughly corresponds to the Central African Shear Zone. the Adamawa Plateau, as an individual uplifted area, is explained by the interaction of a regional anomalous upper mantle associated with the West African Rift System, and the Central African Shear Zone, which provided a conduit for heat flow to the surface. 相似文献
The Aki inversion technique has been used to invert the relative residuals into a 3-D model of velocity perturbations from a mean earth model. the results show the region is divided roughly into three blocks by two subvertical boundaries, striking ENE and traversing both the crust and upper mantle down to depths greater than 190km. the central block, which is 2 per cent slower than the adjacent blocks, roughly corresponds to the Central African Shear Zone. the Adamawa Plateau, as an individual uplifted area, is explained by the interaction of a regional anomalous upper mantle associated with the West African Rift System, and the Central African Shear Zone, which provided a conduit for heat flow to the surface. 相似文献
13.
In North American deserts, grass invasions threaten native vegetation via competition and altered fire regimes. Accurate prediction and successful mitigation of these invasions hinge on estimation of spread rates and their degree of constancy in time and space. We used high-resolution aerial photographs from 11 sites in the Santa Catalina Mountains, southern Arizona to reconstruct the spread of buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a C4 perennial bunchgrass, since 1980. The total area infested was fit to a logistic model and residuals of the model were compared to climatic factors of the corresponding and lagged time periods. Infestations grew from small colonizing patches in the 1980s to 66 ha in 2008, doubling every 2.26–7.04 years since 1988. Although buffelgrass germination, establishment and distribution are favored by wet summers and warm winters, climate variables did not predict spread rates. Buffelgrass has grown at a constant rate, at least since 1988, when much of its expansion took place. In the study area, minimum requirements are met almost every year for germination and reproduction, establishing a consistent baseline for spread that manifests as a constant spread rate. 相似文献
14.
Stefano Mainardi 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(3):387-411
Public interventions in support of public health and housing in developing countries could benefit from better understanding of spatial heterogeneity and anisotropy. Estimation of directional variation within geographically weighted regression (GWR) faces problems of local parameter instability, border effects and, if extended to non- spatial attributes, potential endogeneity. This study formulates a GWR model where anisotropy is filtered out based on information from directional variograms. Along with classical regressions, the approach is applied to investigate child anaemia and its associations with household characteristics, sanitation and basic infrastructure in 173 regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Based on ordinary least squares (OLS) results, anaemia prevalence rates are up to three times more responsive to child morbidity (related to malaria and other diseases) than to other covariates. GWR estimates provide similar indications, but also point to poor sanitation facilities as a cofactor of severe anaemia particularly in east and southern Africa. The anisotropy-adjusted GWR is spatially stationary in residuals, and its estimated local parameters are less collinear than GWR with no adjustment. However, similar explanatory power and lack of significant bias in parameters estimated by the latter suggest that directional variation is largely captured by modelled co-movements among the variables. 相似文献
15.
应用MM5模式以及1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料,对新疆风能资源“代表年”进行了3 km×3 km分辨率的模拟试验,同时将10 m高度的模拟值与气象站10 m高度的实测值进行了对比。结果表明：(1)模式能较真实反映年、月平均风速大小的空间分布特征,但存在一定的系统性偏差,且偏差的大小具有明显的月际变化特征与地域性变化特征。平均来说,夏半年的偏差幅度小于冬半年,大风区的偏差幅度明显小于非大风区,达坂城-小草湖风区、哈密东南部风区、三塘湖-淖毛湖风区的模拟偏差最小。(2)对各风区逐小时平均风速模拟值进行线性回归订正,虽能有效减小有些风区模拟与实测值间的风速偏差,但对有效风速小时数的订正效果极其有限,订正后的偏差仍具有随机性。（3）以月为单位,通过对逐小时平均风速模拟值立方的回归订正可有效减小年平均风功率密度的模拟误差,同时模式中逐小时的空气密度可直接以观测点的月平均空气密度取而代之。该试验不仅对近期新疆已经完成的风能资源详查与综合评价中有关中尺度模式参数化方案的最优组合选择和水平分辨率的调整具有现实意义,而且也为如何提高风电功率短期预报的精准性提供了研究素材。 相似文献
16.
On crustal corrections in surface wave tomography 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Mantle models from surface waves rely on good crustal corrections. We investigated how far ray theoretical and finite frequency approximations can predict crustal corrections for fundamental mode surface waves. Using a spectral element method, we calculated synthetic seismograms in transversely isotropic PREM and in the 3-D crustal model Crust2.0 on top of PREM, and measured the corresponding time-shifts as a function of period. We then applied phase corrections to the PREM seismograms using ray theory and finite frequency theory with exact local phase velocity perturbations from Crust2.0 and looked at the residual time-shifts. After crustal corrections, residuals fall within the uncertainty of measured phase velocities for periods longer than 60 and 80 s for Rayleigh and Love waves, respectively. Rayleigh and Love waves are affected in a highly non-linear way by the crustal type. Oceanic crust affects Love waves stronger, while Rayleigh waves change most in continental crust. As a consequence, we find that the imperfect crustal corrections could have a large impact on our inferences of radial anisotropy. If we want to map anisotropy correctly, we should invert simultaneously for mantle and crust. The latter can only be achieved by using perturbation theory from a good 3-D starting model, or implementing full non-linearity from a 1-D starting model. 相似文献
17.
降水精细化数值预报模式的发展是开展精细化降水预报业务的理想途径,而模式本地化中的误差评估是当前开展业务应用的重要环节。基于此,运用误差分析、晴雨预报准确率、降水TS评分方法评估陕西精细化数值预报攻关团队提供的2016年5月1日~9月30日安康水电站降水预报。结果表明：随着降水时效的增长,降水的预报准确率呈减小趋势;大雨以上的降水过程预报较好且未出现漏报,但量值与实况有差异,预报值小于实况值;20时起报的预报准确率大于08时起报的准确率且夜间的高于白天;降水日数多的月份TS评分预报准确率高于降水日数少的月份。比较安康和石泉的结果发现,安康的预报准确率明显优于石泉,主要原因是安康降水日数比石泉多,且大的降水过程比石泉少。逐1 h、3 h的72 h以内的降水预报可以为安康水电厂水利调度提供参考。 相似文献
18.
Robust estimation of geomagnetic transfer functions 总被引：22，自引：0，他引：22
Summary. We show, through an examination of residuals, that all of the statistical assumptions usually used in estimating transfer functions for geomagnetic induction data fail at periods from 5 min to several hours at geomagnetic mid-latitudes. This failure can be traced to the finite spatial scale of many sources. In the past, workers have tried to deal with this problem by hand selecting data segments thought to be free of source effects. We propose an automatic robust analysis scheme which accounts for the systematic increase of errors with increasing power and which automatically downweights source contaminated outliers. We demonstrate that, in contrast to ordinary least squares, this automatic procedure consistently yields reliable transfer function estimates with realistic errors. 相似文献
19.
Hydro power schemes operating in a free electricity market seek to maximize profits by differing generation rates to take best advantage of fluctuating selling prices, subject to the constraints of keeping storage lakes within their operational bounds and avoiding spillage losses. Various computer algorithms can be used in place of manual scheme operation to aid this maximization process, so it is desirable to quantify any profit gained from a given algorithm. A standard approach involves applying the algorithm to a period of past river flow records to see how much additional scheme income might have been obtained. This process requires the use of a hydro power scheme model, which inevitably can only approximate operational details, so the anticipated income gains are likely to be biased estimates of actual income gained from implementation of the algorithm. In addition to preliminary algorithm evaluation, it is desirable that hydro scheme managers have methodology to confirm anticipated income gain. Such confirmation can be difficult because true income gains are typically in the order of a few percentage and may not be easily distinguishable from background noise. We develop an approach, which allows estimation of true income gain for the situation where a change is made from manual to computer control of hydro power scheme operations, or upgrading from one maximization algorithm to another. The method uses a regression model to describe the former period of scheme operation. Postimplementation residuals from the regression predictions then provide estimates of actual income gain. The method can be sensitive to small but consistent income gains. Also, there is no requirement to construct any hydro scheme simulation model so bias effects should be considerably reduced. The approach was developed in the context of evaluating an income-maximization algorithm applied to a small hydro power scheme in the Kaimai Ranges of New Zealand. However, the methodology seems sufficiently simple and general to be applicable, with modification, to other power schemes moving toward increasing income through operational changes. 相似文献
20.
在地理空间尺度上,气候因素（如热量、降水量等）一直被认为是物种多样性的主要驱动因素。然而,气候因素能否解释湿地植物多样性格局仍不清楚。研究探讨了环境因素尤其水分和热量条件对湿地物种分布的影响,具体包括经度、纬度、海拔、年平均降水量、年平均气温、年平均蒸发量和年平均日照时数总计7个指标,研究对象涉及新疆3个二级流域的26处湿地公园,应用结构方程模型分析了各指标对湿地植物丰富度影响的相对大小及其相互作用关系。另外,还利用莫兰指数（Moran’s I）对各变量残差进行了空间相关性分析,以评估空间相关性的影响。结果表明：（1）结构方程模型总计解释了41.8%的物种丰富度变异,以年平均降水量对物种丰富度总效应最高,为0.47,其次是年平均日照时数,为-0.42,其中年平均降水量为正效应,年平均日照时数为负效应。其他各指标对物种丰富度的效应均不显著。（2）年平均降水量对植物丰富度的影响主要表现为直接效应,占总效应的92.86%,年平均日照时数对植物丰富度的影响主要是间接效应,占总效应的54.76%。（3）空间相关性分析表明年平均降水量和年平均日照时数的残差均不存在空间相关性,莫兰指数在-0.15～... 相似文献