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1.
Detecting regime shifts in the ocean: Data considerations 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
B. deYoung R. Harris J. Alheit G. Beaugrand N. Mantua L. Shannon 《Progress in Oceanography》2004,60(2-4):143
We review observational data sets that have been used to detect regime shifts in the ocean. Through exploration of data time series we develop a definition of a regime shift from a pragmatic perspective, in which a shift is considered as an abrupt change from a quantifiable ecosystem state. We conclude that such changes represent a restructuring of the ecosystem state in some substantial sense that persists for long enough that a new quasi-equilibrium state can be observed. The abruptness of the shift is relative to the life-scale or the reproductive time-scale of the higher predators that are influenced by the shift. In general, the event-forcing is external to the biological ecosystem, usually the physical climate system, but we also identify shifts that can be ascribed to anthropogenic forcing, in our examples fishing. This pragmatic definition allows for several different types of regime shift ranging from simple biogeographic shifts to non-linear state changes. In practice it is quite difficult to determine whether observed changes in an oceanic ecosystem are primarily spatial or temporally regulated. The determination of ecosystem state remains an unresolved, and imprecise, oceanographic problem.We review observations and interpretation from several different oceanic regions as examples to illustrate this pragmatic definition of a regime shift: the Northeast Pacific, the Northwest and Northeast Atlantic, and Eastern Boundary Currents. For each region, different types of data (biological and physical) are available for differing periods of time, and we conclude, with varying degrees of certainty, whether a regime shift is in fact detectable in the data. 相似文献
2.
Regime shifts: Can ecological theory illuminate the mechanisms? 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
“Regime shifts” are considered here to be low-frequency, high-amplitude changes in oceanic conditions that may be especially pronounced in biological variables and propagate through several trophic levels. Three different types of regime shift (smooth, abrupt and discontinuous) are identified on the basis of different patterns in the relationship between the response of an ecosystem variable (usually biotic) and some external forcing or condition (control variable). The smooth regime shift is represented by a quasi-linear relationship between the response and control variables. The abrupt regime shift exhibits a nonlinear relationship between the response and control variables, and the discontinuous regime shift is characterized by the trajectory of the response variable differing when the forcing variable increases compared to when it decreases (i.e., the occurrence of alternative “stable” states). Most often, oceanic regime shifts are identified from time series of biotic variables (often commercial fish), but this approach does not allow the identification of discontinuous regime shifts. Recognizing discontinuous regime shifts is, however, particularly important as evidence from terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems suggests that such regime shifts may not be immediately reversible. Based on a review of various generic classes of mathematical models, we conclude that regime shifts arise from the interaction between population processes and external forcing variables. The shift between ecosystem states can be caused by gradual, cumulative changes in the forcing variable(s) or it can be triggered by acute disturbances, either anthropogenic or natural. A protocol for diagnosing the type of regime shift encountered is described and applied to a data set on Georges Bank haddock, from which it is concluded that a discontinuous regime shift in the abundance of haddock may have occurred. It is acknowledged that few, if any, marine data are available to confirm the occurrence of discontinuous regime shifts in the ocean. Nevertheless, we argue that there is good theoretical evidence for their occurrence as well as some anecdotal evidence from data collection campaigns and that the possibility of their occurrence should be recognized in the development of natural resource management strategies. 相似文献
3.
A regime shift is considered to be a sudden shift in structure and functioning of a marine ecosystem, affecting several living components and resulting in an alternate state. According to this definition, regime shifts differ from species replacement or alternation of species at similar trophic levels, whereby the ecosystem is not necessarily significantly altered in terms of its structure and function; only its species composition changes. This paper provides an overview of regime shifts, species replacements and alternations that have been observed in the northern and southern Benguela ecosystems over the past few decades. Bottom-up control, initiating and sustaining regime shifts or species replacements via environmental forcing, is documented for both the southern and the northern Benguela ecosystems. Fishing (a case of top-down control) appears to have played an important role in regime shift processes in the Namibian ecosystem. Very low biomass levels of exploited fish stocks associated with less efficient energy transfer in the northern Benguela are indicative of a regime shift. Very high biomass levels have been reached in the southern Benguela in the 2000s. However the alternation between sardine and anchovy that has been observed in the southern Benguela over the last two decades appears not to have had major effects on the overall functioning of the ecosystem. The consequences of regime shifts for exploitation are highlighted, suggesting that fisheries managers should move towards a more effective ecosystem approach to fisheries. 相似文献
4.
《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2006,53(4):582-588
Regimes and regime shifts are important concepts for understanding decadal variability in the physical system of the North Pacific because of the potential for an ecosystem to reorganize itself in response to such shifts. There are two prevalent senses in which these concepts are taken in the literature. The first is a formal definition and posits multiple stable states and rapid transitions between these states. The second is more data-oriented and identifies local regimes based on differing average climatic levels over a multi-annual duration, i.e. simply interdecadal fluctuations. This second definition is consistent with realizations from stochastic red noise processes to a degree that depends upon the particular model. Even in 100 year long records for the North Pacific a definition of regimes based solely on distinct multiple stable states is difficult to prove or disprove, while on interdecadal scales there are apparent local step-like features and multi-year intervals where the state remains consistently above or below the long-term mean. The terminologies climatic regime shift, statistical regime shift or climatic event are useful for distinguishing this second definition from the first.To illustrate the difficulty of advocating one definition over the other based upon a relatively short time series, we compare three simple models for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The 104-year PDO record is insufficient to statistically distinguish a single preference between a square wave oscillator consistent with the formal definition for regime shifts, and two red noise models that are compatible with climatic regime shifts. Because of the inability to distinguish between underlying processes based upon data, it is necessary to entertain multiple models and to consider how each model would impact resource management. In particular the persistence in the fitted models implies that certain probabilistic statements can be made regarding climatic regime shifts, but we caution against extrapolation to future states based on curve fitting techniques. 相似文献
5.
智利竹筴鱼(Trachurus murphyi)是东南太平洋重要的经济鱼类之一,其资源量受补充量影响明显,了解补充量状况对智利竹筴鱼资源可持续利用和科学管理具有重要意义。本文基于模态分析将1971?2017年间智利竹筴鱼补充量划分不同模态,运用贝叶斯模型平均法,分析海表面温度、海表面盐度、海表面高度、厄尔尼诺和太平洋年代际振荡5个环境因子在不同模态中对补充量的解释能力,并探讨模态变动对补充量预测的影响。结果表明,第1模态(1971?1980年)更多的受捕捞因素的干扰;第2模态(1981?1990年)厄尔尼诺对补充量变动的解释概率最高;第3模态(1991?2001年)解释概率最高的环境因子为太平洋年代际振荡;第4模态(2002?2015年)厄尔尼诺为解释概率最高的环境因子。对比不考虑模态变动的分析结果,两者存在明显差异,基于不同模态的分析结果对智利竹筴鱼补充量变动的解释更为合理。研究认为,智利竹筴鱼补充量变动受到多个环境因子的影响,在不同模态时期起主导作用的环境因子也不同,推测年代际太平洋年代际振荡冷暖期交替与厄尔尼诺现象可能是诱发智利竹筴鱼补充量发生模态转变的重要因素。建议在未来智利竹筴鱼资源评估与管理中,应该考虑不同的模态变化及其影响因子。 相似文献
6.
An industry accepted standard does not currently exist for determination of compression limits in a subsea cable. This has resulted in most manufacturers specifying that subsea cables are not permitted to be axially loaded in compression.Additionally industry guidance does not exist regarding the consequences of inducing compression forces within subsea cables and the resulting effect on cable integrity. Industry recommended practice and guidance also does not have any information regarding experimental test arrangements to determine allowable compression levels within a subsea cable. This lack of modelling/testing guidance along with manufacturer recommendations of zero compressive loads within subsea cables results in overly conservative and restrictive design parameters for subsea cable installation and use.Due to the complex interaction within a subsea cable structure, such as contact interaction and friction between cable strands, theoretical modelling has been unable to provide reliable stress predictions and therefore an experimental testing regime is required if compression limits within the cable are to be appropriately determined. This paper describes combined axial and bending test arrangements that can be used as a guideline for determination of allowable compression limits for subsea cables. 相似文献
7.
Heather Sugden Rafael Panusch Mark Lenz Martin Wahl & Jeremy C. Thomason 《Marine Ecology》2007,28(3):368-376
Natural communities are constantly changing due to a variety of interacting external processes and the temporal occurrence and intensity of these processes can have important implications for the diversity and structure of marine sessile assemblages. In this study, we investigated the effects of temporal variation in a disturbance regime, as well as the specific timing of events within different regimes, on the composition and diversity of marine subtidal fouling assemblages. We did this in a multi‐factorial experiment using artificial settlement tiles deployed at two sites on the North East coast of England. We found that although there were significant effects of disturbances on the composition of assemblages, there were no effects of either the variation in the disturbance regime or the specific timing of events on the diversity or assemblage composition at either site. In contrast to recent implications we conclude that in marine fouling assemblages, the variability in disturbance regimes (as a driving force) is unimportant, while disturbance itself is an important force for structuring robust ecosystems. 相似文献
8.
This paper considers the relationship between multi-year air temperature and pressure fluctuations over the ocean, based on an approximate solution of the problem on the determination of large-scale seawater temperature anomalies from the conditions predominating at the sea surface. The dependence derived is numerically analysed using observations made in the North Atlantic. It is shown that the variability of annual mean air temperature anomalies is largely controlled by the air pressure field which has taken place during the preceding long-term period. The dependence derived may be applied to generate long-term forecasts of the ocean's hydrometeorological regime.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
9.
Rachel Tiller 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2011,54(5):374-380
The Svalbard Fisheries Protection Zone is an international institution on the brink of being challenged in a critical phase of being institutionalized as a Norwegian property regime. The potential disturbance comes from the zooplankton redfeed, a new and valuable resource harvestable within the zone. Though the pressures on Norway’s inspection routines in the zone are challenged at times, this article suggests that the zone as a management regime is a surprisingly robust institution still. Nevertheless, in such a critical phase it is important not to allow possible exogenous shocks to appear, and creating a separate redfeed regime for the plankton will allow the Norwegian government to bypass this possible disturbance and allow for continued solidification of the zone into an EEZ for Norway. 相似文献
10.
《Marine Policy》2017
Ecosystems often shift abruptly and dramatically between different regimes in response to human or natural disturbances. When ecosystems tip from one regime to another, the suite of available ecosystem benefits changes, impacting the stakeholders who rely on these benefits. These changes often create some groups who stand to incur large losses if an ecosystem returns to a previous regime. When the participation cost in the decision-making process is extremely high, this can “lock in” ecosystem regimes, making it harder for policy and management to shift ecosystems out of what the majority of society views as the undesirable regime. Public stakeholder meetings often have high costs of participation, thus economic theory predicts they will be dominated by extreme views and often lead to decisions that do not represent the majority viewpoint. Such extreme viewpoints can create strong inertia even when there is broad consensus to manage an ecosystem towards a different regime. In the same manner that reinforcing ecological feedback loops make it harder to exit an ecosystem regime, there are decision-making feedback loops that contribute additional inertia. 相似文献
11.
《Coastal Engineering》2005,52(3):205-219
This paper presents the application of a technique that can be easily applied in monitoring programs following beach fills, where sand is dredged from subtidal zones, seabed or bays, usually rich in foraminifera shells. Its utility lies in a simple and rapid estimation of the prevailing longshore transport paths and determination of the main eroding/accreting zones. A beach monitoring program was undertaken in a embayment on the South Atlantic Spanish coast, where several nourishments were carried out in order to recover an eroding beach. Once the nourishment was complete, a temporal analysis of foraminifera shell distribution was made in a nearby beach inside the embayment by monthly sediment sampling. Foraminifera shells were used as natural tracers for estimating sediment pathways. The results showed a complex pattern of sedimentary transport between both beaches, where wind action and reflected/diffracted waves interfered with the dominant longshore current, depending on the prevailing hydrodynamic regime. These results were later confirmed by a 3-year morphodynamic study. Although foraminifera dispersion only accounts for the behaviour of fine fractions, the monitoring of shell dispersion after dumping demonstrated to be a useful tool for studying the stability of nourished beaches. In the case of nourished beaches foraminifera shells could be considered as mixed tracers, with many advantages over both natural and artificial traditional tracers. 相似文献
12.
The effect of ice cover on the dynamics and energetics of surface and internal tides in the White Sea is investigated using the three-dimensional finite-element hudrothermodynamic model QUODDY-4. The sea ice is represented as a continuous and motionless ice cover that can move vertically but not horizontally. It is assumed that the resulting changes in the tidal regime are the maximum possible in reference to those occurring in real conditions when, in the cold season, a continuous and motionless ice cover is ubiquitous only in Kandalaksha, Dvina, and Onega bays, while drift ices prevail in all other areas of the White Sea. It is shown that the effect of sea ice does not lead to a qualitative restructuring of the tidal regime. However, its quantitative changes prove to be significant, which indicates that the ice-induced seasonal variation in tidal characteristics in the White Sea is important. 相似文献
13.
《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2003,50(6):691-699
The analysis of interdecadal physical and biological variability is made challenging by the relative shortness of available time series. It has been suggested that rapid temporal changes of the most energetic empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature (sometimes called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO) represents a “regime shift” between states with otherwise stable statistics. Using random independent time series generated to have the same frequency content as the PDO, we show that a composite analysis of climatic records recently used to identify regime shifts is likely to find them in Gaussian, red noise with stationary statistics. Detection of a shift by this procedure is not evidence of nonlinear processes leading to bi-stable behavior or any other meaningful regime shift. 相似文献
14.
On Ireland's continental shelf, as well as within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), there are significant biodiversity hotspots including those associated with Cold Water Corals (CWC). Some of these ecosystems enjoy little or no actual protection and are subject to the effects of open access. Sectorally driven initiatives, a recalcitrant attitude to environmental law and inadequate governance, have added to the conditions that have facilitated years of damage by fishers and other actors from many States. A review of the current governance regime, influenced primarily by the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), is presented. Failings of this regime are highlighted by the destruction of some biodiversity hotspots associated with vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs), an externality primarily arising from the effects of deepwater fishing. While exploring some of the principles relating to the institution of property rights, this paper makes a link between property rights, the public trust doctrine and sovereign rights. The paper suggests that such biodiversity systems are the property of citizens of the individual States in whose area of jurisdiction they occur. The paper argues for an Irish State property rights regime as part of an ecosystem approach within a nested institutional architecture. This has important implications for the governance of biodiversity such as that associated with CWC and for the development of an Irish National Oceans Policy. 相似文献
15.
Since the introduction of quotas and licences as important management tools, Norway has insisted on an individual vessel quota regime (IVQ). The main argument has been to avoid market-based transactions of quotas and vessels and secure stability in regard to a diverse fleet structure and decentralized ownership of scarce cod resources. Thus, an individual transferable quota system (ITQ) with a high degree of transactions and the potential for a heavy concentration of quota ownership and fewer vessels has never been an alternative. However, since the late 80s, the trawler fleet has been trapped within a web of unprofitable overcapacity. Within the frame of a closed management regime and a path-dependent IVQ system, the quota regime has been forced towards a market-orientated system for transactions. In this article, we analyze the Norwegian IVQ system and discuss whether the aggregate effects of the IVQ regime are congruent with the models’ profound ideals. 相似文献
16.
Ecological characteristics of Walleye pollock eggs and larvae in the southeastern Bering Sea during the late 1970s 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Kyung-Mi Jung Sukyung Kang Suam Kim Arthur W. Kendall Jr. 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(6):859-871
Walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) is an ecologically and economically important groundfish in the eastern Bering Sea. Its population size fluctuates widely,
driving and being driven by changes in other components of the ecosystem. It is becoming apparent that dramatic shifts in
climate occur on a decadal scale, and these “regime shifts” strongly affect the biota. This paper examines quantitative collections
of planktonic eggs and larvae of pollock from the southeastern Bering Sea during 1976–1979. Mortality, advection, and growth
rates were estimated, and compared among the years encompassing the 1970s’ regime shift. These data indicate that pollock
spawning starts in late February over the basin north of Bogoslof Island. Over the shelf, most spawning occurs north of Unimak
Island near the 100 m isobath in early or mid April. Pollock eggs are advected to the northwest from the main spawning area
at 5–10 cm/sec. Larvae are found over the basin north of Bogoslof Island in April, and over the shelf between Unimak Island
and the Priblof Islands in May. Compared to 1977, the spawning period appeared to be later in 1976 (a cold year) and earlier
in 1978 (a warm year) in the study area. At the lower temperatures in 1976, egg duration would be longer and thus egg mortality
would operate over a longer period than in the other years. Mean larval growth appeared to be lower in 1976 than in 1977 and
1979. Estimated egg mortality rate in 1977 was 0.6 in April and 0.3 in early May. 相似文献
17.
18.
根据感潮河段的水力特性,以奉化江中心城区段为例,建立一套完善的二维动床水流泥沙数值模型,对其建立和求解的基本思路进行了叙述,研究分析感潮河道的河势演变情况和冲淤变化,预测涉河工程建成后河段可能的演变趋势和对取排水工程、堤防安全、防汛抢险、现有和规划的防洪标准及水利工程的影响。本模型经过多次实测涨、落潮验证后,分别在奉化江解放南路桥、绕城高速公路跨奉化江大桥等5处洪水影响评估中得到了广泛应用和验证,在惊架桥洪水评估中同时采用物理模型对本模型进行验证,两者结果非常接近。本模型可以为水利部门评估涉河工程提供咨询服务。 相似文献
19.
A. M. Batchaev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2012,48(6):657-662
The first results of a laboratory simulation of the Kolmogorov flow on a spherical surface are described. The primary laminar regime was found to be a system of zonal laminar jets of alternating directions. When the first critical value is passed, the primary regime loses its stability, and on its background a secondary vortex quasi-periodic regime with low frequency is formed. With a further increase in the Reynolds number and when the second critical value is passed, this vortex regime becomes unstable and self-excited oscillations emerge in the flow. Specifically, it was found that, if the spherical layer radius is chosen as a length scale, the wavelengths of perturbations in the vortex regime fall in the range of maximum intensity in the spectrum of the horizontal component of wind speed at the tropopause level. We explain the maximum peak shift in the wind spectrum on synoptic time scales when the observational height increases from 3000 km in the surface layer up to 8000?C10000 km in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. 相似文献