首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 17 毫秒
1.
This study evaluates the synoptic features and environmental conditions of Brahmanbaria tornado event that caused 36 fatalities, 388 injuries and huge damages of properties on 22 March, 2013. Various factors for initiation of that terrific event are investigated through analysis JRA-55 reanalysis (50 km horizontal resolution) data and Multi-functional Transport Satellite images by Japan Meteorological Agency. In addition, radar images, radiosonde data and three hourly synoptic data of Bangladesh Meteorological Department are used to verify the reanalysis data. The genesis of the tornadic storm is identifiable in the most unstable part of the study region. The satellite observations are found to useful to identify the location of convection occurrence region. The half hourly satellite images identify that the convection initiation started at the convergence area and the systems intensify and organize by the continuous moisture supply from the Bay of Bengal. Lower-level convergence coupled with strong wind shear and humidity gradient lift moist air aloft to trigger deep convection and the severe storm occurred. Energy Helicity Index seems a good predictor parameter for this specific case study.  相似文献   

2.
Five dust storms that occurred in 2008 (15 March, 11 April, 28 April, 25, May and 26 June) in addition to the many sand dunes disseminated in the Western Desert of Iraq are sampled. The worse dust storm that occurred in Iraq in 11 April, 2008 covered 75% of the Iraq area and deposited 6.9?million tons approximately as a total weight of fallout during just 8?h, declining temperature 6°C. During the episodes of dust storms, visibility decreased enormously, no more than 30?m. Many people were taken to hospitals after sustaining breathing problems. Some of them died. Clay fraction is the dominant part in the dust storms forming 70% besides a little silt (20.6%) and sand (9.4%), then classified as mature arkose of clay to sandy clay, whereas sand dunes are formed from 72.7% sand, 25.1% silt and 2.19% clay, then classified as mature arkose of silty sand. Sand dunes have much maturity. Mineralogical composition of dust storms and sand dunes are Quartz (49.2%, 67.1%), feldspar (4.9%, 20.9%), calcite (38%, 5%), gypsum (4.8%, 0.4%), dolomite (0.8%, 1%) and heavy minerals (3.2%, 6.6%), respectively. Heavy mineral suites in the dust storms are represented by zircon, pyroxene, hornblende, chlorite and magnetite; whereas the sand dunes are represented by zircon, tourmaline, garnet and pyroxene, concentrated within sand fraction. Heavy minerals according to satellite images revealed the dry land of Sahara Desert in North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula as well as Syria and Jordan were a major source of the dust storms that have occurred in Asia, including Iraq.  相似文献   

3.
Obtaining an accurate initial state is recognized as one of the biggest challenges in accurate model prediction of convective events. This work is the first attempt in utilizing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) Doppler radar data in a numerical model for the prediction of mesoscale convective complexes around Chennai and Kolkata. Three strong convective events both over Chennai and Kolkata have been considered for the present study. The simulation experiments have been carried out using fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5) version 3.5.6. The variational data assimilation approach is one of the most promising tools available for directly assimilating the mesoscale observations in order to improve the initial state. The horizontal wind derived from the DWR has been used alongwith other conventional and non-conventional data in the assimilation system. The preliminary results from the three dimensional variational (3DVAR) experiments are encouraging. The simulated rainfall has also been compared with that derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The encouraging result from this study can be the basis for further investigation of the direct assimilation of radar reflectivity data in 3DVAR system. The present study indicates that Doppler radar data assimilation improves the initial field and enhances the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) skill.  相似文献   

4.
Using the data of amplitude scintillations recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73‡E) at a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7‡N, 83.3‡E, 20‡N dip), during the increasing sunspot activity period of 1997–2000, the effect of the geomagnetic storms on the occurrence of ionospheric scintillations has been studied. A total of 60 SC storms studied during this period, following the Aarons’ criterion, reveals that the local time of onset of the recovery phase of the geomagnetic storms play an important role in the generation or inhibition of the ionospheric irregularities. Out of the 60 storms studied, nearly 60 to 70% satisfied the categories I, II and III of Aarons’ criteria. However, in the remaining 30 to 40% of the cases, no consistent results were observed. Thus, there is a necessity for further investigation of the effect of geomagnetic storms on ionospheric irregularities, particularly with reference to the altitude variations of the F-layer (h’F) relating to the changes in the local electric fields.  相似文献   

5.
Thunderstorms are the recurrent features of India and are responsible for the redistribution of excess heat and moisture in the atmosphere. However, the thunderstorms that occur over the urban station Kolkata (22°34′N, 88°22′E), India, during the pre-monsoon months of April and May are extremely devastating while accompanied with high wind speed, lightning flashes, torrential rain and occasional hail and tornadoes. The development and verification of a model output are described in this study. The system consists of multiple linear regression (MLR) equations, and the purpose is to nowcast the categories of thunderstorms over Kolkata, both ordinary (wind speed <65 km h?1) and severe (wind speed ≥65 km h?1) as per the warning provided by the India Meteorological Department for the prevalence of thunderstorms. The MODIS terra/aqua satellite data of cloud parameters, ground-based Radiosonde/Rawinsonde upper air observations and records of wind speed accompanied with thunderstorms over Kolkata are considered for the study. The MLR models are formulated with the cloud parameters as input and the target output being the peak wind speed associated with the pre-monsoon thunderstorms. The MLR model is trained with the data and records from 2002 to 2009, and the results are validated with the observations of 2010 and 2011. The results reveal that the accuracy in nowcasting the ordinary and severe categories of thunderstorms during the pre-monsoon season over Kolkata with MLR models are 94.26 and 91.29 %, respectively, with lead time <12 h.  相似文献   

6.
The upper air RS/RW (Radio Sonde/Radio Wind) observations at Kolkata (22.65N, 88.45E) during pre-monsoon season March–May, 2005–2012 is used to compute some important dynamic/thermodynamic parameters and are analysed in relation to the precipitation associated with the thunderstorms over Kolkata, India. For this purpose, the pre-monsoon thunderstorms are classified as light precipitation (LP), moderate precipitation (MP) and heavy precipitation (HP) thunderstorms based on the magnitude of associated precipitation. Richardson number in non-uniformly saturated (R i *) and saturated atmosphere (R i ); vertical shear of horizontal wind in 0–3, 0–6 and 3–7 km atmospheric layers; energy-helicity index (EHI) and vorticity generation parameter (VGP) are considered for the analysis. The instability measured in terms of Richardson number in non-uniformly saturated atmosphere ( \(R_{i}^{\mathrm {\ast } })\) well indicate the occurrence of thunderstorms about 2 hours in advance. Moderate vertical wind shear in lower troposphere (0–3 km) and weak shear in middle troposphere (3–7 km) leads to heavy precipitation thunderstorms. The wind shear in 3–7 km atmospheric layers, EHI and VGP are good predictors of precipitation associated with thunderstorm. Lower tropospheric wind shear and Richardson number is a poor discriminator of the three classified thunderstorms.  相似文献   

7.
Death tolls from tornadoes in Bangladesh are the highest in the world due to lack of storm warnings, poor communication, weak housing, and lack of shelters from strong winds in tornadoes and nor’westers. Based on surveys of housing types and designs in the Tangail district, a household tornado shelter is proposed to be placed in the elevated storage platform that is common in houses. The shelter is 2 m tall, 1.2 m wide, and 2–4 m long (4.8–9.6 m3 in volume) with the floor of the shelter placed one meter below the floor of the house. Walls are 7–10 cm thick and made of concrete or an earthen wall stabilized with cement or strengthened with bamboo or bricks. A survey of 200 residents of the region found nearly universal acceptance for the shelter design, and residents were eager for installation of the household shelters. The shelter cost is 2,500–10,000 taka (US50 to50 to 200) depending on local material and labor costs but residents were willing to pay an average of only 1,071 taka (US$21) toward the cost of the shelter. Families with greater income and land holdings and families in villages with recent tornado experience were willing to spend more for a shelter. A pilot project to install household tornado shelters in selected villages and monitor their use, along with continued efforts to issue storm warnings, communicate the warnings, and improve education about storm hazards, will prevent injuries and save lives in Bangladesh and reduce the descent into poverty that results from losses in severe local storms.  相似文献   

8.
The objective of this paper is to discuss the effectiveness of visualizing online 3D terrain draped with different satellite imageries. The topographic data of the study area were obtained from the contour maps of Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia. The high resolution satellite imageries used in this project involving QUICKBIRD (0.6 m resolution), IKONOS (1 m resolution), and SPOT5 (5 m resolution). R2V software was used for editing the contour data, whereas Arc GIS was used for overlaying the imageries over the 3D terrain data. Then the data were exported into Virtual Reality Markup Language to compare the effectiveness of different satellite imageries based on the data file size, imageries size, number of images tile, loading time during office hours (from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.) and out of office hours (after 5 p.m.), frame rate per second, and visualization quality. The results revealed that IKONOS satellite imageries are better for an effective online 3D terrain visualization utilizing GIS data even though it has lower resolution compared to QUICKBIRD.  相似文献   

9.
This study assesses the impact of Doppler weather radar (DWR) data (reflectivity and radial wind) assimilation on the simulation of severe thunderstorms (STS) events over the Indian monsoon region. Two different events that occurred during the Severe Thunderstorms Observations and Regional Modeling (STORM) pilot phase in 2009 were simulated. Numerical experiments—3DV (assimilation of DWR observations) and CNTL (without data assimilation)—were conducted using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW). The results show that consistent with prior studies the 3DV experiment, initialized by assimilation of DWR observations, performed better than the CNTL experiment over the Indian region. The enhanced performance was a result of improved representation and simulation of wind and moisture fields in the boundary layer at the initial time in the model. Assimilating DWR data caused higher moisture incursion and increased instability, which led to stronger convective activity in the simulations. Overall, the dynamic and thermodynamic features of the two thunderstorms were consistently better simulated after ingesting DWR data, as compared to the CNTL simulation. In the 3DV experiment, higher instability was observed in the analyses of thermodynamic indices and equivalent potential temperature (θ e) fields. Maximum convergence during the mature stage was also noted, consistent with maximum vertical velocities in the assimilation experiment (3DV). In addition, simulated hydrometeor (water vapor mixing ratio, cloud water mixing ratio, and rain water mixing ratio) structures improved with the 3DV experiment, compared to that of CNTL. From the higher equitable threat scores, it is evident that the assimilation of DWR data enhanced the skill in rainfall prediction associated with the STS over the Indian monsoon region. These results add to the body of evidence now which provide consistent and notable improvements in the mesoscale model results over the Indian monsoon region after assimilating DWR fields.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper, impact of Indian Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) data, i.e., reflectivity (Z), radial velocity (Vr) data individually and in combination has been examined for simulation of mesoscale features of a land-falling cyclone with Advance Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Model at 9-km horizontal resolution. The radial velocity and reflectivity observations from DWR station, Chennai (lat. 13.0°N and long. 80.0°E), are assimilated using the ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS) and cloud analysis scheme of the model. The case selected for this study is the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone NISHA of 27–28 November 2008. The study shows that the ARPS model with the assimilation of radial wind and reflectivity observations of DWR, Chennai, could simulate mesoscale characteristics, such as number of cells, spiral rain band structure, location of the center and strengthening of the lower tropospheric winds associated with the land-falling cyclone NISHA. The evolution of 850 hPa wind field super-imposed vorticity reveals that the forecast is improved in terms of the magnitude and direction of lower tropospheric wind, time, and location of cyclone in the experiment when both radial wind and reflectivity observations are used. With the assimilation of both radial wind and reflectivity observations, model could reproduce the rainfall pattern in a more realistic way. The results of this study are found to be very promising toward improving the short-range mesoscale forecasts.  相似文献   

11.
Chaudhuri  S.  Khan  F.  Das  D.  Mondal  P.  Dey  S. 《Natural Hazards》2020,102(3):1571-1588

Thunderstorm overshooting is rare but not an unusual phenomenon in a metropolitan of India, Kolkata (22.57° N; 88.36° E) during the pre-monsoon months (April–May). An attempt is made in this study to identify the important parameters differentiating the thunderstorms in overshooting and non-overshooting categories through data analytics from 2000 to 2015. The present investigation on parametric classification would facilitate in estimating the predictability of thunderstorms with overshooting which subsequently might assist in operational forecast of thunderstorm severity over Kolkata. The altitudes of lifting condensation level (LCL), wind shear, bulk Richardson number (BRN), gust speed, boundary layer characteristics and their correlation with thunderstorm cloud top height (CTH) and also their variation and distribution during overshooting (OTS) and non-overshooting (TS) thunderstorms are analyzed in this study. The result depicts that over Kolkata the intensity of storms during OTS is higher than during TS though the frequency of OTS is less than that of TS. The results further show that the potential temperature (θ), equivalent potential temperature (θe), mixing ratio (es) in the boundary layer, convective available potential energy, convective inhibition energy, BRN and gust speed play significant roles in regulating the CTH during OTS and TS thunderstorms over Kolkata.

  相似文献   

12.
Winter storms are a major weather problem in the United States and their losses have been rapidly increasing. A total of 202 catastrophic winter storms involving ice storms, blizzards, and snowstorms, each causing >$5 million in damages, occurred during 1949–2003, and their losses totaled $35.2 billion (2003 dollars). Catastrophic winter storms occurred in most parts of the contiguous United States, but were concentrated in the eastern half of the nation where 88% of all storm losses occurred. They were most frequent in the Northeast climate district (95 storms), and were least frequent in the West district (14 catastrophic storms). The annual average number of storms is 3.7 with a 1-year high of nine storms, and one year had no storms. Temporal distributions of storms and their losses exhibited considerable spatial variability across the nation. For example, when storms were very frequent in the Northeast, they were infrequent elsewhere, a result of spatial differences in storm-producing weather conditions over time. The time distribution of the nation’s 202 storms during 1949–2003 had a sizable downward trend, whereas the nation’s storm losses had a major upward trend for the 55-year period. This increase over time in losses, given the decrease in storm incidences, was a result of significant temporal increases in storm sizes and storm intensities. Increases in storm intensities were small in the northern sections of the nation, but doubled across the southern two-thirds of the nation, reflecting a climatic shift in conditions producing intense winter storms.  相似文献   

13.
The Alxa Plateau has one of the highest frequencies of dust events in China and one of the greatest contributions to East Asian dust. We compiled climate and dust storm data for the Alxa Plateau based on observational data from ten meteorological stations from 1960 to 2005. Our analysis showed that Guaizihu and Minqin dust centers had >26 days per year with dust storms versus 7–13 days for other desert and Gobi regions on the plateau. Variations in dust storm frequency during the study period showed that dust storms increased during the 1960s (until 1972), decreased until the late 1990s, and then increased slightly until 2002. About 75.6% of dust storms occurred in March, April, May, June, and July. Between 78.2 and 88.1% of the dust storms occurred during the daytime and 28.9% of the dust storms occurred between 13:00 and 16:00. The mean durations of dust storms in the Alxa Plateau ranged from 715 to 3,462 min. The annual number of minutes of dust storms averaged >1,800 min in the western Alxa Plateau. Dust storm frequency was inversely related to duration: the longer the average duration, the lower the frequency of such storms.  相似文献   

14.
The relatively slow flow and exchange of Carr Inlet water with the main basin of Puget Sound, Washington, favor eutrophication. To study Carr Inlet’s circulation, the Model-measurement Integration Experiment in Estuary Dynamics (MIXED) was conducted in March–May 2003, spanning the spring bloom. From observations and numerical simulations the circulation was decomposed into tidal and subtidal components; the former was dominated by the M2 tide, the latter by atmospheric forcing. Near the surface, the subtidal velocity was correlated with wind. At mid depths, the subtidal velocity was organized into vertical bands arising from internal waves excited by wind forcing of the water surface. The tidal flow was more strongly steered by local bathymetry and weaker in peak magnitudes than the subtidal flow, yet it contributed more mechanical energy to the inlet. Tidal eddies reduce exchange of water through the inlet’s entrances. Numerical simulations with the Princeton Ocean Model recreated many observed features, including the three-layer vertical structure of outflow at the surface and bottom and inflow at mid depth, the mid-depth subtidal response to the wind, and characteristics of the tide. While the model produced greater subtidal flow magnitudes at depth and differences in the phase of the M2 tide compared to observations, overall the case study provided support for more comprehensive simulations of Puget Sound in the future.  相似文献   

15.
Sulfur dioxide measured at the Visitor’s Center of Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park, USA exhibits seasonal and diurnal patterns and is sensitive to rainfall, but the relationship between wind direction and SO2 is too inconsistent to support deterministic predictions of hourly SO2 based on hourly wind direction. Although SO2 at the Visitor Center has usually been below regulatory levels, high SO2 levels and adverse health effects remain a concern. This investigation identified patterns in hourly SO2 based on wind direction, time of day, month, and rainfall occurrence using 4 years of hourly data. Empirical probabilities were investigated using a Bayesian approach. Winds from the volcanic vents were rare, but when they did occur SO2 was elevated about half of the time. Conversely, half of the hours with elevated SO2 occurred when volcanic vents were not directly upwind. Episodes of elevated SO2 tended to occur during the months of November–March and between 8:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. Rainfall was associated with a marked reduction in SO2 (29–81% depending on wind direction). Individuals that wish to avoid exposure to volcanic fumes can take these patterns into account.  相似文献   

16.
The present study explored the effect of assimilation of Advanced TIROS Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) temperature and humidity profiles and Spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) total precipitable water (TPW) on the simulation of a monsoon depression which formed over the Arabian Sea during September 2005 using the Weather Research and Forecast model. The three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation technique has been employed for the purpose of assimilation of satellite observations. Statistical scores like “equitable threat score,” “bias score,” “forecast impact,” and “improvement parameter” have been used to examine the impact of the above-mentioned satellite observations on the numerical simulation of a monsoon depression. The diagnostics of this study include verification of the vertical structure of depression, in terms of temperature anomaly profiles and relative vorticity profiles with observations/analysis. Additional diagnostics of the study include the analysis of the heat budget and moisture budget. Such budget studies have been performed to provide information on the role of cumulus convection associated with the depression. The results of this study show direct and good evidence of the impact of the assimilation of the satellite observations using 3DVAR on the dynamical and thermodynamical features of a monsoon depression along with the effect of inclusion of satellite observation on the spatial pattern of the simulated precipitation associated with the depression. The “forecast impact” parameter calculated for the wind speed provides good evidence of the positive impact of the assimilation of ATOVS temperature and humidity profiles and SSM/I TPW on the model simulation, with the assimilation of the ATOVS profiles showing better impact in terms of a more positive value of the “forecast impact” parameter. The results of the study also indicate the improvement of the forecast skill in terms of “equitable threat score” and “bias score” due to the assimilation of satellite observation.  相似文献   

17.
Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely 6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period.  相似文献   

18.
天目湖热力学状况的监测与分析   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16       下载免费PDF全文
根据2001年6月～2002年5月在天目湖进行的每月一次的全湖水温观测以及2002年5月25～26日在1号点的定点24h连续水温观测资料,分析研究了天目湖水温时空分布、垂直分布、温跃层的形成与变化以及湖泊热力学对溶解氧、营养盐的影响,揭示了各自的基本变化规律。结果表明:天目湖水温的日变化、年变化及垂直分布明显,而其水平差异不大;温跃层随着季节的变化而呈现增强-稳定-减弱-消失的周期变化;水温的变化以及温跃层的存在引起了水中溶解氧以及营养盐的变化。  相似文献   

19.
Auto-correlation analysis of ocean surface wind vectors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
The nature of the inherent temporal variability of surface winds is analyzed by comparison of winds obtained through different measurement methods. In this work, an auto-correlation analysis of a time series data of surface winds measuredin situ by a deep water buoy in the Indian Ocean has been carried out. Hourly time series data available for 240 hours in the month of May, 1999 were subjected to an auto-correlation analysis. The analysis indicates an exponential fall of the autocorrelation in the first few hours with a decorrelation time scale of about 6 hours. For a meaningful comparison between satellite derived products andin situ data, satellite data acquired at different time intervals should be used with appropriate ‘weights’, rather than treating the data as concurrent in time. This paper presents a scheme for temporal weighting using the auto-correlation analysis. These temporal ‘weights’ can potentially improve the root mean square (rms) deviation between satellite andin situ measurements. A case study using the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Indian Ocean buoy wind speed data resulted in an improvement of about 10%.  相似文献   

20.
A total of seventeen vertical profiles of ozone were obtained during an Indo-USSR collaborative experiment on ozonesonde intercomparison conducted at Thumba during March 1983. The vertical distribution of ozone was measured using rocket-borne, balloon-borne as well as ground-based instruments. Four different rocket ozonesondes from India and USSR and the balloon ozonesonde were used to makein situ observations of ozone concentrations in addition to the Dobson spectrophotometric observations of total ozone and Umkehr. The rocket and the balloon launchings were effected in three salvos and measurements were made at different times of the day as well as during night. The results of all these measurements are used to obtain a mean ozone vertical distribution over Thumba foT the spring equinoxial period. The mean profile shows the maximum ozone concentration at 27 km with a value of (3.86±0-52)×1012 molecules per cc. Comparison of this mean profile with available satellite data for the equatorial regions shows that, in general, the Thumba values are lower by 10–15% at altitudes below 40 km and larger at altitudes above 50 km compared to the satellite results. The data also show evidence for a day-to-day variability and a possible day-to-night variability in the ozone vertical distribution with the night-time values higher than the daytime values at all altitudes above 35 km and the difference is found to increase with the increasing altitude.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号