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1.
A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts
by a global spectral model. Some well known vortices have been used and the generated wind and pressure profiles are compared.
It is found that the Rankine vortex and Holland’s vortex show the best representation of cyclonic circulation. Hence these
two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. For
this purpose the FGGE level-III b data set, produced at ECM WF, UK is used. Synthetic temperature and humidity data are also
introduced to make the cyclones more realistic.
With the use of Holland’s vortex the system is found to move faster than with the Rankine vortex. Also, the tracks of the
cyclones simulated with Rankine vortex are found to be on the left side of the observed track while that of Holland’s vortex
is on the right side of the observed track. However, substantial filling up of the systems are noticed with introduction of
diabatic initialization of the mass and velocity fields and the forecasts of both the vortices behave differently. It is suggested
that proper selection of synthetic vortex, initialization scheme and resolution of the model are very important for better
forecast of cyclones. 相似文献
2.
Randhir Singh P. K. Pal C. M. Kishtawal P. C. Joshi 《Journal of Earth System Science》2005,114(4):427-436
The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested
during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National
Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted
to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical
cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the
initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much
more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h,
48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550 km for the
non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions,
the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen.
The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum
wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not
well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but
not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained. 相似文献
3.
The rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley (2004) near landfall is studied using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State
University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its adjoint system for both vortex
initialization and forecasts. A significant improvement in both track and intensity forecasts is achieved after an ill-defined
storm vortex, derived from large-scale analysis, in the initial condition is replaced by the vortex generated by a four-dimensional
data variational (4D-Var) hurricane initialization scheme. Results from numerical experiments suggest that both the inclusion
of the upper-level trough and the use of high horizontal resolution (6 km) are important for numerical simulations to capture
the observed rapid intensification as well as the size reduction during the rapid intensification of Hurricane Charley. The
approach of the upper-level trough significantly enhanced the upper-level divergence and vertical motion within simulated
hurricanes. Small-scale features that are not resolvable at 18 km resolution are important to the rapid intensification and
shrinking of Hurricane Charley (2004). Numerical results from this study further confirm that the theoretical relationship
between the intensification and shrinking of tropical cyclones based on the angular momentum conservation and the cyclostrophic
approximation can be applied to the azimuthal mean flows. 相似文献
4.
Track prediction of very severe cyclone ‘Nargis’ using high resolution weather research forecasting (WRF) model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after
hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow
the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried
out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of
VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research
WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic
study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with:
The real time track forecast using the WRF model run at 27 km and 20 km resolution based on the initial conditions of 28 April
(when the system was only 550 km away from the Indian coast) indicated that the system had a northeasterly forecast track
and was not expected to cross the Indian coast. Similarly, based on 29 April initial condition the system showed east/east-northeasterly
movement towards the Myanmar coast. The east/east-northeasterly movement of the ‘Nargis’ was persisting in the forecast based
on 30 April and 1 May initial conditions with respective landfall errors of 85 km and 50 km with 27 km resolution, which reduces
to 30 km and 40 km respectively with 20 km resolution, however, with a landfall time delay of about 10 h. Improvement of mean
forecast errors at different forecast hours is noticed in WRF model run at higher resolution compared to that run at lower
resolution. Thus, it is very clear that the advanced version WRF model had captured movement of the system reasonably well
almost 3 days in advance. Consistence with the diagnostic analysis the WRF model forecast also indicates southerly/southwesterly
strong steering wind at 200 hPa level and maximum pressure fall to the east of the system. 相似文献
| • | upper level southerly/southwesterly steering wind at 200 hPa level associated with anticyclonic circulation over southeastern sector of the centre of the system |
| • | higher SST (29°C or more) with higher positive anomalies over the region to the northeast of the cyclone centre, and |
| • | large negative 24 h pressure changes and large vorticity maximum to the east of the system. |
5.
It is well recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a dominant role in the formation and intensification of tropical
cyclones. A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST
on the intensification of tropical cyclones and in turn, modification in SST by the cyclone itself. Although a few modeling
studies confirmed the sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of
Bengal cyclones. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively
deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). Three numerical experiments are conducted with
climatological SST, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) skin temperature as SST, and observed SST (satellite
derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and
observed SST over the Bay of Bengal are 1–2°C warmer than climatological SST, but cooler by nearly 1°C along the coastline.
Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The simulation results
indicate that the sea surface temperature has a significant impact on model-simulated track and intensity of the cyclonic
storm. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST. 相似文献
6.
S. D. Kotal S. K. Roy Bhowmik P. K. Kundu Ananda Das Kumar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):157-168
A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is
developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones
that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm
intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear
averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model
is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found
to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast
error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones
(during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours.
The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal. 相似文献
7.
Impact of physical parameterization schemes on numerical simulation of super cyclone Gonu 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The objective of this study is to investigate in detail the sensitivity of cumulus, planetary boundary layer and explicit
cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on intensity and track forecast of super cyclone Gonu (2007) using the Pennsylvania
State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Three sets of sensitivity
experiments (totally 11 experiments) are conducted to examine the impact of each of the aforementioned parameterization schemes
on the storm’s track and intensity forecast. Convective parameterization schemes (CPS) include Grell (Gr), Betts–Miller (BM)
and updated Kain–Fritsch (KF2); planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes include Burk–Thompson (BT), Eta Mellor–Yamada (MY)
and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple
Ice (SI), Mixed Phase (MP), Goddard Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and Schultz (Sc). The model configuration for CPS and
PBL experiments includes two nested domains (90- and 30-km resolution), and for MPS experiments includes three nested domains
(90-, 30- and 10-km grid resolution). It is found that the forecast track and intensity of the cyclone are most sensitive
to CPS compared to other physical parameterization schemes (i.e., PBL and MPS). The simulated cyclone with Gr scheme has the
least forecast track error, and KF2 scheme has highest intensity. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering
flow of the cyclone is evident. It appears that combined effect of midlatitude trough interaction, strength of the anticyclone
and intensity of the storm in each of these model forecasts are responsible for the differences in respective track forecast
of the cyclone. The PBL group of experiments has less influence on the track forecast of the cyclone compared to CPS. However,
we do note a considerable variation in intensity forecast due to variations in PBL schemes. The MY scheme produced reasonably
better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. Finally, results from MPS set
of experiments demonstrate that explicit moisture schemes have profound impact on cyclone intensity and moderate impact on
cyclone track forecast. The storm produced from WR scheme is the most intensive in the group and closer to the observed strength.
The possible reason attributed for this intensification is the combined effect of reduction in cooling tendencies within the
storm core due to the absence of melting process and reduction of water loading in the model due to absence of frozen hydrometeors
in the WR scheme. We also note a good correlation between evolution of frozen condensate and storm intensification rate among
these experiments. It appears that the Sc scheme has some systematic bias and because of that we note a substantial reduction
in the rain water formation in the simulated storm when compared to others within the group. In general, it is noted that
all the sensitivity experiments have a tendency to unrealistically intensify the storm at the later part of the integration
phase. 相似文献
8.
A method of initializing tropical cyclones in high-resolution numerical models is developed by modifying a data assimilation system, the NRL atmospheric variational data assimilation system (NAVDAS), which was designed for general mesoscale weather prediction using a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) analysis with intermittent updates. The method includes the following three upgrades to overcome difficulties resulting from tropical cyclone initialization with the NAVDAS analysis. First, synthetic observation soundings are generated on 9 vertical levels at 49 points for strong storms (v max?>?23.1?m?s?1) and 41 points for weak storms around each cyclone center to supplement the observations used by the analysis. Secondly, a vortex relocation method for nested grids is developed to correct the cyclone position in the background fields of the analysis for each nested mesh. Lastly, the 3DVAR analysis is modified to gradually reduce the horizontal length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint near the center of a tropical cyclone for minimizing the problems introduced by improper covariances and coupling constraint used in the analysis. The synthetic observations significantly improve the intensity and structure of the analysis and the track forecast. The vortex relocation significantly improves the first guess background, avoiding the large analysis corrections that would be needed to correct cyclone position, and reducing the imbalance introduced by such large analysis increments. The modifications to the analysis length scale and geostrophic coupling constraint successfully improve the inner core analysis, providing a tighter circulation, and reducing the underestimate of the mass field gradient. Among the three upgrades, the vortex relocation provides the largest improvement to the tropical cyclone initialization and forecast. 相似文献
9.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore 总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2
This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have
been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as
the center. Seismic hazard parameter ‘b’ has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship and (2) Kijko
and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The ‘b’ parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G–R relation and 0.87 ± 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results
obtained are a little higher than the ‘b’ values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been
carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability
hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard
values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
on a grid size of 0.5 km × 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for
the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g
obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic
seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than
PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area. 相似文献
10.
Pablo Iribarren Anacona Kevin Norton Andrew Mackintosh Fernando Escobar Simon Allen Bruno Mazzorana Marius Schaefer 《Natural Hazards》2018,92(1):93-112
The rise of total water levels at the coast is caused primarily by three factors that encompass storm surges, tides and wind waves. The accuracy of total water elevation (TWE) forecast depends not only on the cyclonic track and its intensity, but also on the spatial distribution of winds which include its speed and direction. In the present study, the cyclonic winds are validated using buoy winds for the recent cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since 2010 using Jelesnianski wind scheme. It is found that the cyclonic winds computed from the scheme show an underestimate in the magnitude and also a mismatch in its direction. Hence, the wind scheme is suitably modified based on the buoy observations available at different locations using a power law which reduces the exponential decay of winds by about 30%. Moreover, the cyclonic wind direction is also corrected by suitably modifying its inflow angle. The significance of modified exponential factor and inflow angle in the computation cyclonic winds is highlighted using statistical analysis. A hydrodynamic finite element-based Advanced Circulation 2D depth integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) model is used here to compute TWE as a response to combined effect of cyclonic winds and astronomical tides. As contribution of wave setup plays an important role near the coast, a coupled ADCIRC + SWAN is used to perceive the contribution of wind waves on the TWE. The experiments are performed to validate computed surge residuals with available tide gauge data. On comparison of observed surge residuals with the simulations using modified winds from the uncoupled and coupled models, it is found that the simulated surge residuals are better compared, especially with the inclusion of wave effect through the coupled model. 相似文献
11.
Cyclone-generated surface waves are simulated using state-of-art SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model coupled with hydrodynamic
model inputs. A severe cyclonic storm passed over the Arabian Sea during 4–9th November 1982 is selected from UNISYS track
records. The cyclone lasted for nearly 6 days and subsided with a land fall at Gujarat coast, west coast of India. In this
study, cyclonic wind fields are generated using a well-established relationship suggested by Jelesnianski and Taylor (1973). The associated water level variations due to storm surge and surge generated currents are simulated using POM (Princeton
Ocean Model). The outputs are one-way coupled with the wave model SWAN for simulating wave parameters off Gujarat, north-east
basin of Arabian Sea. An extensive literature review is carried out on the progress and methodology adopted for storm wave
modelling and analysis. The results presented in this paper reveal the severity of the storm event and would be highly useful
for assessing the extreme wave event/climate especially for the south coast of Gujarat. 相似文献
12.
Most of the countries around the North Indian Ocean are threatened by storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones.
The destruction due to the storm surge flooding is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Oman. Storm surges cause heavy loss of lives and property damage to the coastal structures and losses
of agriculture which lead to annual economic losses in these countries. About 300,000 lives were lost in one of the most severe
cyclones that hit Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) in November 1970. The Andhra Cyclone devastated part of the eastern coast
of India, killing about 10,000 persons in November 1977. More recently, the Chittagong cyclone of April 1991 killed 140,000
people in Bangladesh, and the Orissa coast of India was struck by a severe cyclonic storm in October 1999, killing more than
15,000 people besides enormous loss to the property in the region. These and most of the world’s greatest natural disasters
associated with the tropical cyclones have been directly attributed to storm surges. The main objective of this article is
to highlight the recent developments in storm surge prediction in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. 相似文献
13.
H. M. Poulos 《Natural Hazards》2010,54(3):1015-1023
Hurricanes are one of the major natural disturbances affecting human livelihoods in coastal zones worldwide. Assessing hurricane
risk is an important step toward mitigating the impact of tropical storms on human life and property. This study uses NOAA’s
historical tropical cyclone database (HURDAT or ‘best-track’), geographic information systems, and kernel smoothing techniques
to generate spatially explicit hurricane risk maps for New England. Southern New England had the highest hurricane risk across
the region for all storm intensities. Long Island, western Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and southern Cape Cod, Martha’s
Vineyard, and Nantucket had high storm probabilities and wind speeds. Results from this study suggest that these locations
may be of central importance for focusing risk amelioration resources along the Long Island and New England coastlines. This
paper presents a simple methodology for hurricane risk assessment that could be applied to other regions where long-term spatial
storm track data exist. 相似文献
14.
Savita B. Morwal S. G. Nagar V. S. N. Murty P. Seetaramayya 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(5):587-599
During the period 12–16 June 1996 a tropical cyclonic storm formed over the southwest Bay of Bengal and moved in a north-northeasterly
direction. The thermodynamic characteristics of this system are investigated by utilizing the surface and upper air observations
collected onboardORV Sagar Kanya over the Bay of Bengal region. The response of the cyclonic storm is clearly evident from the ship observations when the
ship was within the distance of 600–800 km from the cyclonic storm. This study explores why (i) the whole atmosphere from
surface to 500 hPa had become warm and moist during the cyclonic storm period as compared to before and after the formation
of this system and (ii) the lower layer of the atmosphere had become stable during the formative stage of the cyclonic storm. 相似文献
15.
Anita R. Schiller 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(1):331-346
This paper examines the possible storm surge damage from a major hurricane to hit the Houston Metropolitan Statistical Area
(MSA.) Using storm surge analysis on a unique data set compiled from the Texas Workforce Commission (QCEW), the paper estimates
the expected industry-level damage for each county in the Houston MSA. The advantages of using GIS to analyze the expected
storm surge damage estimation is that it provides an accurate estimation of the number of affected employees and probable
wages losses, by industry and county, based on QCEW data. The results indicate that the ‘Basic Chemical Manufacturing’ and
‘Oil and Gas Extraction’ industries incur the highest employee and payroll losses while the ‘Restaurants and Eateries’ has
the largest establishment damage if a major hurricane were to hit the Houston MSA. 相似文献
16.
Phenomenal storm surge levels associated with cyclones are common in East Coast of India. The coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh
are in rapid stride of myriad marine infrastructural developments. The safe elevations of coastal structures need a long-term
assessment of storm surge conditions. Hence, past 50 years (1949–1998), tropical cyclones hit the Bay are obtained from Fleet
Naval Meteorological & Oceanographic Center, USA, and analyzed to assess the storm surge experienced around Kakinada and along
south Andhra Pradesh coast. In this paper, authors implemented Rankin Hydromet Vortex model and Bretschneider’s wind stress
formulation to hindcast the surge levels. It is seen from the hindcast data that the November, 1977 cyclone has generated
highest surge of the order of 1.98 m. Extreme value analysis is carried out using Weibull distribution for long-term prediction.
The results reveal that the surge for 1 in 100-year return period is 2.0 m. Further the highest surge in 50 years generated
by the severe cyclone (1977) is numerically simulated using hydrodynamic model of Mike-21. The simulation results show that
the Krishnapatnam, Nizampatnam and south of Kakinada have experienced a surge of 1.0, 1.5 and 0.75 m, respectively. 相似文献
17.
The roles of vortex initialization and model spin-up in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) Model are studied through a case study of NARGIS (2008) cyclone over Bay of Bengal. ARW model is designed to have three two-way interactive nested domains, and a suite of 36 numerical experiments are performed with three values of maximum wind (MW), four of radius of maximum wind (RMW), and three of α and one experiment without vortex initialization. The results indicate that vortex initialization is important toward realistic representation of initial structure and location of cyclone vortex. Model spin-up during the first 18–24 h of model integration lead to faster intensification than of the real atmosphere, thus a weaker initial vortex evolved more realistically. Three experiments from vortex initialization produced MW and RMW nearer to the observations, but none of these produced a good prediction due to unrealistic intensification during model spin-up. A weaker vortex with intensity less than 50 % than observations produced the best forecast in terms of intensity, track, and landfall. The results suggest that slightly larger (~30 %) RMW than observations with α as ?0.5 (for 81 km model resolution) that produces weaker vortex is to be implemented in the design of bogus vortex. This study assesses the merits of TC bogus scheme in ARW model, illustrates the need for vortex initialization, and analyzes the spin-up problem in cold-start model simulations of TC prediction. 相似文献
18.
The impact of realistic representation of sea surface temperature (SST) on the numerical simulation of track and intensity
of tropical cyclones formed over the north Indian Ocean is studied using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We
have selected two intense tropical cyclones formed over the Bay of Bengal for studying the SST impact. Two different sets
of SSTs were used in this study: one from TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite and other is the weekly averaged Reynold’s
SST analysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). WRF simulations were conducted using the Reynold’s
and TMI SST as model boundary condition for the two cyclone cases selected. The TMI SST which has a better temporal and spatial
resolution showed sharper gradient when compared to the Reynold’s SST. The use of TMI SST improved the WRF cyclone intensity
prediction when compared to that using Reynold’s SST for both the cases studied. The improvements in intensity were mainly
due to the improved prediction of surface latent and sensible heat fluxes. The use of TMI SST in place of Reynold’s SST improved
cyclone track prediction for Orissa super cyclone but slightly degraded track prediction for cyclone Mala. The present modeling
study supports the well established notion that the horizontal SST gradient is one of the major driving forces for the intensification
and movement of tropical cyclones over the Indian Ocean. 相似文献
19.
Coastal flooding occurs due to storm surges generated by tropical and extra-tropical cyclones on the globe. The meteorological
forcing fields for the generation of storm surges are the tangential surface wind stress on the ocean surface and the normal
atmospheric pressure gradients associated with the weather systems. The large scale forcing from the cyclones is referred
to as the synoptic scale and storm surge prediction from synoptic scale forcing is well developed and is reasonably satisfactory
around the world. However, coastal flooding also occurs from weather systems, with forcing on a meso-scale and also from remote
forcing. It is proposed here that the term “Storm surge” be used to only refer to coastal flooding from synoptic scale forcing
and the terminology “Rissaga” be used for coastal flooding from meso-scale forcing. For flooding due to remote forcing, a
new term “Kallakkadal” is proposed. 相似文献
20.
In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm. 相似文献