共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 656 毫秒
1.
The modified Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Modeling System [ARDS (Ver. 4.01)] has recently been upgraded [ARDS (Ver. 5.0)]
and applied to a wide variety of field discovery and wildcat drilling data with differing characteristics. ARDS is designed
to forecast the number and sizes of undiscovered fields in an exploration play or basin by using historical drilling and discovery
data. Fields used as input may be grown or ungrown. Two models for field growth—one offshore and the other onshore—have been
implemented (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1996). Uncertainty attributable to field growth is estimated via simulation. This upgrade
of ARDS has been designed to handle situations when the data cannot be partitioned into homogeneous regions, but where estimation
of the number of remaining oil and gas fields is still meaningful. In this upgrade of ARDS, many restrictions, which include
those on the number of fields and wildcat wells required to forecast the size distribution of the oil and gas fields that
remain to be discovered in an exploration play, a basin, or other target area, have been removed. In addition, flexibility
has been gained by reforming the criteria for convergence of the model. In all, 32 basins and subbasins in South America were
examined, 18 of which had sufficient data to be amenable to forecasting the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and
gas resources directly by using the Petroconsultants Inc. (1993) field discovery and wildcat drilling data. Overall, ARDS
(Ver. 5.0) performed well in estimating the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the 18 basins
and subbasins. The aggregate volume of undiscovered petroleum resources was characterized by using histograms of the distribution
of resources and the following five statistics: the mean, the 80% trimmed mean, and the 10,50 (median), and 90 quantiles.
More than 38 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in fields that contain more than one million BOE individually were forecast
as remaining to be discovered. The largest basin, the Campos (Brazil), is forecast to contain nearly 10 billion BOE undiscovered
resources. The East Venezuela Basin (excluding the Furrial Trend) is forecast to contain about 8 billion BOE; the Austral-Magallanes
Basin (Argentina and Chile), about 7 billion BOE; and the Napo (Colombia and Ecuador) and the Neuquen (Argentina) Basins,
between 3 billion and 4 billion BOE. A subset of these basins that illustrate the increased flexibility of ARDS are discussed. 相似文献
2.
A system of play (trap) assessment based on the analysis of geological characteristics of five different types of petroleum
plays in the Bohaiwan Basin, northern China, is proposed. The system makes use of conditional probability, fuzzy logic, and
Monte Carlo simulation to assess geologic risk for estimating the undiscovered petroleum resources in a region. Combining
the estimates of undiscovered resources with the subsequent economic evaluation of discovered resources by using techniques
of optimization, the expected monetary value can be estimated to determine the overall benefits of an investment. A software
program has been developed to carry out the calculations. 相似文献
3.
Constraining basin thermal history and petroleum generation using palaeoclimate data in the Piceance Basin,Colorado 
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下载免费PDF全文 Yao Tong Daniel E. Ibarra Jeremy K. Caves Tapan Mukerji Stephan A. Graham 《Basin Research》2017,29(4):542-553
Careful assessment of basin thermal history is critical to modelling petroleum generation in sedimentary basins. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to constraining basin thermal history using palaeoclimate temperature reconstructions and study its impact on estimating source rock maturation and hydrocarbon generation in a terrestrial sedimentary basin. We compile mean annual temperature (MAT) estimates from macroflora assemblage data to capture past surface temperature variation for the Piceance Basin, a high‐elevation, intermontane, sedimentary basin in Colorado, USA. We use macroflora assemblage data to constrain the temporal evolution of the upper thermal boundary condition and to capture the temperature change with basin uplift. We compare these results with the case where the upper thermal boundary condition is based solely upon a simplified latitudinal temperature estimate with no elevation effect. For illustrative purposes, 2 one‐dimensional (1‐D) basin models are constructed using these two different upper thermal boundary condition scenarios and additional geological and geochemical input data in order to investigate the impact of the upper thermal boundary condition on petroleum source rock maturation and kerogen transformation processes. The basin model predictions indicate that the source rock maturation is very sensitive to the upper thermal boundary condition for terrestrial basins with variable elevation histories. The models show substantial differences in source rock maturation histories and kerogen transformation ratio over geologic time. Vitrinite reflectance decreases by 0.21%Ro, source rock transformation ratio decreases 10.5% and hydrocarbon mass generation decreases by 16% using the macroflora assemblage data. In addition, we find that by using the macroflora assemblage data, the modelled depth profiles of vitrinite reflectance better matches present‐day measurements. These differences demonstrate the importance of constraining thermal boundary conditions, which can be addressed by palaeotemperature reconstructions from palaeoclimate and palaeo‐elevation data for many terrestrial basins. Although the palaeotemperature reconstruction compiled for this study is region specific, the approach presented here is generally applicable for other terrestrial basin settings, particularly basins which have undergone substantial subaerial elevation change over time. 相似文献
4.
Although reserve (or field) growth has proved to be an important contributing factor in adding new reserves in mature petroleum basins, it is a poorly understood phenomenon. Although several papers have been published on the U.S. fields, there are only a few publications on fields in other petroleum provinces. This paper explores the reserve growth in the 42 largest West Siberian oil fields that contain about 55% of the basin's total oil reserves.The West Siberian oil fields show 13-fold reserve growth 20 years after the discovery year and only about 2-fold growth after the first production year. This difference in growth is attributed to extensive exploration and field delineation activities between discovery and the first production year. Because of the uncertainty in the length of evaluation time and in reported reserves during this initial period, reserve growth based on the first production year is more reliable for model development. However, reserve growth models based both on discovery year and first production year show rapid growth in the first few years and slower growth in the following years. In contrast, the reserve growth patterns for the conterminous United States and offshore Gulf of Mexico show a steady reserve increase throughout the productive lives of the fields. The different reserve booking requirements and the lack of capital investment for improved reservoir management and production technologies in West Siberia are the probable causes for the difference in the growth patterns.The models based on the first production year predict that the reserve growth potential in the 42 largest oil fields of West Siberia for a five-year period (1998–2003) ranges from 270–330 million barrels or 0.34–0.42% per year. For a similar five-year period (1996–2001), models for the conterminous United States predict a growth of 0.54–0.75% per year. 相似文献
5.
A probabilistic method that is based upon conditional probability theory and the laws of expectation has been developed for
estimating the undiscovered oil and gas resources in a petroleum play. It takes into account the favorable geological conditions
that influence the accumulation of oil and gas and those factors which influence the distribution and the quantity of undiscovered
oil and gas. Information about the number and size of undiscovered resources is provided. A practical application in the Turpan-Hami
Basin in northwestern China is described.
An erratum to this article is available at . 相似文献
6.
The formation of oil and gas reservoirs is the result of infinitesimal amounts of hydrocarbons that accumulate in sedimentary
basins through a process of chain reactions, which occur one step at a time. The reactions can be divided into a set of interrelated
static factors, which can be divided into a subset of interrelated factors. The chain reactions define a genetic model that
has a layered structure with the property of forward chaining. It is an attempt to portray the process of formation of oil
and gas reservoirs. By using this model in petroleum exploration, potential pool-size distributions can be evaluated. 相似文献
7.
Stratigraphic and structural analysis of the Wind River and Bighorn basins of central Wyoming are in progress. One result has been the development of spectral stratigraphy, an approach to stratigraphic analysis that uses photogeologic and spectral interpretation of multispectral image data combined with topographic information to remotely characterize thickness and lithology of strata exposed in sedimentary basins. Thus, spectral stratigraphy is a new tool for use in integrated investigations of the evolution of sedimentary basins.Multispectral sensor systems that have been available since 1982 are used to analyze upper Paleozoic and Mesozoic strata on the southern margin of the Bighorn Mountains and the southern edge of the Bighorn Basin. Thematic Mapper (TM) data are used to develop stratigraphic columns and structural cross sections that are correlated with conventional surface and subsurface sections. Experimental thermal infrared aircraft data facilitate lithofacies/biofacies analysis of the monotonous Cretaceous Cody Shale sequence. Recently developed satellite and aircraft systems provide sufficient spectral resolution to allow for remote determination of the stratigraphic distribution of quartz, calcite, dolomite, gypsum, specific clay species, and other minerals diagnostic of depositional environments. Development of a desktop, computer-based, geologic analysis system that provides for automated stratigraphic interpretation and analysis of combined multispectral image and digital topographic data portends major advances in the application of spectral stratigraphy.Results demonstrate an approach with general applicability in other geologic investigations that could benefit from remotely acquired information about areal variations in sequence, attitude, thickness, and lithology of strata exposed at the Earth's surface. 相似文献
8.
Guocheng Pan 《Natural Resources Research》1997,6(4):285-293
A fundamental task for petroleum exploration decision-making is to evaluate the uncertainty of well outcomes. The recent development
of geostatistical simulation techniques provides an effective means to the generation of a full uncertainty model for any
random variable. Sequential indicator simulation has been used as a tool to generate alternate, equal-probable stochastic
models, from which various representations of uncertainties can be created. These results can be used as input for the quantification
of various risks associated with a wildcat drilling program or the estimation of petroleum resources. A simple case study
is given to demonstrate the use of sequential indicator simulation. The data involves a set of wildcat wells in a gas play.
The multiple simulated stochastic models are then post-processed to characterize various uncertainties associated with drilling
outcomes. 相似文献
9.
Flemming G. Christiansen Jørgen A. Bojesen-Koefoed Stefan Piasecki Lars Stemmerik Jens Therkelsen 《Basin Research》2020,32(5):1234-1238
In a recent study, Andrews et al. (2020) describe “exhumed hydrocarbon traps” in North-East Greenland. The basic premise for their interpretation is that dark-coloured, pyrobitumen-bearing sandstones represent the remnants of once buried petroleum reservoirs. We do not see the necessary field or analytical evidence to support a model that has strong implications for resource evaluations. Andrews et al. (2020) have not considered previous published information on diagenetic and thermal maturity history of the area. A more probable model would include the intrusion of dykes and sills into a sedimentary succession with immature petroleum source rocks and reservoir-quality sandstones. The heating caused rapid generation of petroleum components and local hydrothermal circulation systems in adjacent porous sandstones. Any petroleum was rapidly destroyed leaving essentially only black grain-coatings and minor particles of pyrobitumen—essentially in one short-lived continuous process. The existence of new plays in the North Atlantic as proposed by Andrews et al. (2020) is in our opinion not substantiated as this requires analytical data from unaltered oils from the less mature parts of the sedimentary succession and considerations of thermal maturity and basin evolution. To draw conclusions that have a serious impact on resource evaluations based on the dark colouration of sandstones without comprehensive analytical data is, in our opinion, ill advised. 相似文献
10.
In a world of climate change and socio-economic development, oil is the strategic resource that is closely intertwined and interdependent. Tracing the evolution of petroleum resources flow is fundamental to understanding petroleum supply and demand, and can also serve as the basis for assessing CO2 emissions from petroleum products. This paper aims to provide a petroleum products flow accounting framework that divides petroleum flow into four phases, three flows, three libraries, and two processes, and summarizes the approach to measure and analyze petroleum resources flows. It takes China as an example for empirical research, and finds that: ① China’s petroleum production, consumption and import have significantly increased over the past two decades, and the combination of increasing demand and limited supply have created an urgent need for China to diversify its petroleum sources globally to ensure its oil security. ② Final consumption accounts for the use of most petroleum products and special attention should be paid to the losses in the petroleum refining process. ③ With the exception of crude oil, petroleum product flows among various sectors has changed greatly. Particularly, the flow of petroleum products into transport and residential consumption has trended upward significantly, whereas the flow to industry is trending downward. ④ CO2 emission data shows that CO2 emission amounts increased rapidly from 456Mt in 1993 to 1517Mt in 2013. Previously, the top three CO2 emitters were the industrial sector, the transport sector including the transport, storage and post segments, and the thermal power sector. Currently, the largest emitters are the transport sector, the industrial sector and the residential consumption sector. Finally, poorly demarcated system boundaries and incomplete databases and models constrain research on industry flows of petroleum resources for non-energy use. 相似文献
11.
世界各国大型古代海相固体钾盐矿床多数是在石油、盐岩矿、盐泉卤水等资源的勘查过程中被发现的。国内几十年的找钾实践证实,我国缺乏大型海相固体钾盐矿床,近年来在新生代陆相沉积盆地中寻找大型固体钾盐矿床的努力也没有取得明显进展。我国已探明的钾盐储量主要分布在青海柴达木盆地和新疆罗布泊的11个盐湖及其晶间卤水中,约占资源总量的90%以上;以固体钾矿赋存的资源量少且品位不高,仅占己知总量的2.6%。从1958年察尔汗盐滩生产出第一批953吨钾肥填补我国钾肥生产的空白,到年产150万吨KCl的卤水钾盐开发规模的形成;从1995年在罗布泊发现大型卤水钾矿,到2008年预期生产120万吨K2SO4,显示了我国干旱区盐湖卤水钾盐资源的重要位置。有专家建议,今后的工作应在深入研究成盐盆地基底构造和岩相古地理的基础上,进一步划分可能成钾的次级盆地并进行重点勘探和研究。借鉴世界各国找钾经验,将地质观察分析、地球物理探测、地球化学与水化学等方法综合运用,我国的探盐找钾工作有可能取得突破性进展。 相似文献
12.
Estimating number and field size distribution in frontier sedimentary basins using a Pareto model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Estimating the number of deposits likely to be found and their size distribution is important in exploration planning. In a frontier basin the geologic information for conducting a resource assessment is mostly limited to the regional level. Some methods, such as the play analysis approach (Crovelli and Balay, 1986) and the conceptual play model (Lee and Wang, 1983), can be used in conceptual plays or frontier basins, but these methods require the knowledge of the number of prospects, pool data characterizing the conditional field size distribution, and information documenting the exploration risk. For unexplored sedimentary basins, such as those in southern Africa, there are neither sufficient data covering reservoir volumetric parameters nor a number of mapped prospects that can be used to conduct such an assessment. In such a case a volumetric method using geologic analogy is applicable, by which a point estimate of hydrocarbon potential can be estimated, but this estimate provides no information on the likely size distribution. As a complement to the volumetric method, we discuss how to use the empirical Pareto law for estimating the number of fields and their size distribution in such a frontier region. 相似文献
13.
内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化仿真模型及应用 总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5
在西部大开发战略实施过程当中,我国内陆河流域由于用水结构与产业结构严重错位,水资源短缺问题日益严峻。传统的以满足水资源供需平衡为目标的水资源优化配置模式,已解决不了水资源短缺问题。因此,在内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化理论与机制分析的基础之上,以系统动力学模型为主模型,以投入产出模型、多目标决策模型、灰色系统模型、多元统计回归分析法等为辅助模型,通过主模型与辅助模型对接,建立了内陆河流域用水结构与产业结构双向优化仿真模型。该模型把水资源总量作为“总阀门”,并以产业结构调整为切入点,通过产业结构调整来优化生产用水结构,进而优化“三生”用水结构,通过“三生”用水结构的优化来确保用水总量不超过水资源承载力,以此反复循环,最终实现流域用水结构与产业结构的双向优化。以我国典型的内陆河流域——黑河(干流)流域为例,对该模型进行了应用与分析。结果表明,该模型能够较好地协调流域上中下游之间、生态生产生活系统之间、用水结构产业结构系统之间的矛盾,可以为内陆河流域水资源的持续利用提供新的方法和思路。 相似文献
14.
无资料区的径流模拟问题是国内外水文研究的难点之一。基于相似流域的参数移植法是常用的解决方法之一,但如何判断相似流域是制约此类方法发展的难点。本文以滇池流域为例,采用自组织映射神经网络(SOM)和层次聚类分析(HCA)联合模式,选取16个流域物理特征为指标进行子流域分类,以确定相似流域。运用无分层的K-means分类的SOM法将整个滇池流域划分为7类具有水文属性的子流域组,分类情景与HCA基本一致,两者实现相互验证。采用HBV水文模型模拟子流域径流过程,并选择部分子流域进行组内参数移植交叉检验。结果显示,HBV模型可较好的模拟滇池流域径流过程;此外,子流域交叉检验结果优良,表明同组内参数可以相互移植。本文不仅为解决滇池流域无资料问题提供了可靠手段,而且由于SOM实现了高维流域特征可视化展示,有助于管理者全面、深入的把握滇池流域水文属性的空间分布特征,为进行水资源管理提供指导。 相似文献
15.
A two-dimensional inverse model for extracting the spatial and temporal variation of strain rate from extensional sedimentary basins is presented and applied. This model is a generalization of a one-dimensional algorithm which minimizes the misfit between predicted and observed patterns of basin subsidence. Our calculations include the effects of two-dimensional conduction and advection of heat as well as flexural rigidity. More importantly, we make no prior assumptions about the duration, number or intensity of rifting periods. Instead, the distribution of strain rate is permitted to vary smoothly through space and time until the subsidence misfit has been minimized. We have applied this inversion algorithm to extensional sedimentary basins in a variety of geological settings. Basin stratigraphy can be accurately fitted and the resultant spatiotemporal distributions of strain rate are corroborated by independent information about the number and duration of rifting episodes. Perhaps surprisingly, the smallest misfits are achieved with flexural rigidities close to zero. Spatiotemporal strain rate distributions will help to constrain the dynamical evolution of thinning continental lithosphere. The strain rate pattern governs the heat-flow history and so two-dimensional inversion can be used to construct accurate maturation models. Finally, our inversion algorithm is a stepping stone towards a generalized three-dimensional implementation. 相似文献
16.
沉积物中粘土矿物类型主要有自生粘土矿物和碎屑粘土矿物。其中,自生粘土矿物含量较少,是在沉积环境中形成,可能是沉积再循环或成岩作用的产物,可作为沉积环境某方面的指示标志;而碎屑粘土矿物是母岩风化的产物,受沉积环境影响较小,能够有效示踪物源区化学风化过程,进而反映古气候变化。近年来利用碎屑粘土矿物特征来重建物源区古气候的方法得到了广泛的应用。然而,由于粘土矿物主要存在于<2 μm硅酸盐粘粒中,粘土矿物的提取、鉴定比较困难,且自生粘土矿物易受沉积环境等的影响。因此,在利用粘土矿物重建古气候变化时,需慎重选择粘土矿物的提取方法,并考虑物源和沉积环境变化以及成岩作用等对粘土矿物解释的影响。本文以柴达木盆地东北缘怀头他拉剖面硅酸盐粘土矿物的提取、鉴定及其古环境指示意义为例,介绍粘土矿物的提取及应用,为后期粘土矿物研究提供参考。 相似文献
17.
Water is a primary controlling factor for economic development and ecological environmental protection in the inland river basins of arid western China. And it is groundwater, as the most important component of total water resources, that plays a dominant role in the development of western China. In recent years, the use-ratio of surface water has been raised, the groundwater recharge rate from surface water has been reduced, and groundwater has been exploited on a large scale. This has led to the decline of ground-water levels and the degradation of eco-environments in the Heihe watershed. Therefore, the study on the change in groundwater levels in recent years, as well as simulating and predicting groundwater levels in the future, have become very significant for im-proving the ecological environment of the Heihe River Basin, to coordinate the water contradiction among upper, middle and lower reaches of Heihe River Basin and to allocate the water resources. The purpose of this study is to analyze the groundwa-ter-level variations of the Ejina region based on a large scale, to develop and evaluate a conceptual groundwater model in Ejina Basin, to establish the groundwater flow model using the experimental observation data and combining Modular Three-Dimensional Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW) and GIS software, to simulate the regional hydrologic regime in re-cent 10 years and compare various water-delivery scenarios from midstream, and to determine which one would be the best plan for maintaining and recovering the groundwater levels and increasing the area of Ejina oasis. Finally this paper discusses the pos-sible vegetation changes of Ejina Basin in the future. 相似文献
18.
辽河流域生态需水估算 总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13
从辽河流域存在的环境问题出发,在确定主要生态需水类型的基础上,基于水资源分区,分别估算各水资源分区的不同类型的生态需水,包括枯季河道生态需水、汛期输沙需水、入海需水、地下水恢复需补充的水量、河口湿地生态需水等。针对辽河流域季节性河流的特点,提出了枯水季节最小流量法的枯季河道生态需水计算方法。计算结果表明,辽河流域生态需水总量为130.44×108m3,占地表径流的48.3%,其中浑太河、东辽河2个水资源分区的生态需水量占地表径流的比例在60%以上,辽河干流生态需水量占地表径流的53.5%,其余水资源分区生态需水量占地表径流的比例均在50%以下。研究结果为流域水资源配置及水环境保护与恢复提供科学依据。 相似文献
19.
Hydrostatic or “normal” pressure can be easily visualized as a water column with pressure given by ρgh and any departures classified as abnormal pressure. This is the basis for commonly used hydrostatic pressure depth trends in sedimentary basins that are constructed on assumptions of constant gradients and are datumed at mean sea level or ground level. But the straightforward water column concept does not upscale in a simple way to sedimentary basins where the zones of interest are several thousands of metres below the land or sea surface. Sedimentary basins are heterogeneous, including stacked, confined reservoirs and variations in pore water composition. It is possible to construct pressure-depth profiles that honour the geology and hydrostratigraphy of a basin and these give different hydrostatic baselines from simple constant gradients hung from familiar local datums such as ground level. Key steps are using a reservoir-specific datums such as the water table or potentiometric surface relevant to that unit, then building a pressure-depth trend that represents the pore fluid salinity variation and density profile throughout the reservoir unit. At a given depth, this version of hydrostatic may predict pressures several hundred psi different from a single density gradient hung from a datum local to the well, and exhibit a notched profile reflecting the geological and hydrological stratigraphy. This construct redefines normal and abnormal pore fluid pressures in sedimentary basins. The impacts of this alternative approach to sedimentary basin hydrostatics, even if data are limited and pressure profiles have to be framed probabilistically, extend to many aspects of studying and interacting with fluid systems in sedimentary basins including basin modelling, petroleum systems analysis, well planning and well operations. 相似文献
20.
复杂流域水资源变化模拟的自适应系统识别单元模型 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
针对复杂流域水资源变化模拟这一难点问题,基于单元模型思想,依据水量平衡原理,采用水文系统识别方法,提出了自适应系统识别单元模型(ASIU),并在塔里木河流域进行应用检验。该模型方法集单元模型方法、水量平衡模型方法、水文系统识别方法之优点,能实时“自适应”模拟复杂流域水资源系统变化。通过应用实例分析,可以看出该模型方法具有显著的“自适应”、“适用于复杂流域”的优点,可为复杂流域水量调度和水资源管理提供基础模型和数据,具有重要的理论及应用意义。 相似文献