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1.
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962–2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the available 20th century simulations of 19 global climate models included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—4th Assessment Report with the NCEP-NCAR and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500 hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an ad hoc integral measure of the variability observed in the Northern Hemisphere on different spectral sub-domains. The total wave variability is taken as a global scalar metric describing the overall performance of each model, while the total variability pertaining to the eastward propagating baroclinic waves and to the planetary waves are taken as scalar metrics describing the performance of each model phenomenologically in connection with the corresponding specific physical process. Only two very high-resolution global climate models have a good agreement with reanalyses for both the global and the process-oriented metrics. Large biases, in several cases larger than 20%, are found in all the considered metrics between the wave climatologies of most IPCC models and the reanalyses, while the span of the climatologies of the various models is, in all cases, around 50%. In particular, the travelling baroclinic waves are typically overestimated by the climate models, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with what found is past analyses performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of similar models, it is apparent that in some cases the vertical resolution of the model atmosphere, the adopted ocean model, and the advection schemes seem to be critical in the bulk of the atmospheric variability. The models ensemble obtained by arithmetic averaging of the results of all models is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best five models. Nevertheless, the models results do not cluster around their ensemble mean. This study suggests caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available climate models in representing the statistical properties of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modeling climate change.  相似文献   

2.
This study examines wave disturbances on submonthly (6–30-day) timescales over the tropical Indian Ocean during Southern Hemisphere summer using Japanese Reanalysis (JRA25-JCDAS) products and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outgoing longwave radiation data. The analysis period is December–February for the 29 years from 1979/1980 through 2007/2008. An extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis of daily 850-hPa meridional wind anomalies reveals a well-organized wave-train pattern as a dominant mode of variability over the tropical Indian Ocean. Daily lagged composite analyses for various atmospheric variables based on the EEOF result show the structure and evolution of a wave train consisting of meridionally elongated troughs and ridges along the Indian Ocean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The wave train is oriented in a northeast–southwest direction from Sumatra toward Madagascar. The waves have zonal wavelengths of about 3,000–5,000 km and exhibit westward and southwestward phase propagation. Individual troughs and ridges as part of the wave train sequentially travel westward and southwestward from the west of Sumatra into Madagascar. Meanwhile, eastward and northeastward amplification of the wave train occurs associated with the successive growth of new troughs and ridges over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean. This could be induced by eastward and northeastward wave energy dispersion from the southwestern to eastern Indian Ocean along the mean monsoon westerly flow. In addition, the waves modulate the ITCZ convection. Correlation statistics show the average behavior of the wave disturbances over the tropical Indian Ocean. These statistics and other diagnostic measures are used to characterize the waves obtained from the composite analysis. The waves appear to be connected to the monsoon westerly flow. The waves tend to propagate through a band of the large meridional gradient of absolute vorticity produced by the mean monsoon westerly flow. This suggests that the monsoon westerly flow provides favorable background conditions for the propagation and maintenance of the waves and acts as a waveguide over the tropical Indian Ocean. The horizontal structure of the wave train may be interpreted as that of a mixture of equatorial Rossby waves and mixed Rossby-gravity wavelike gyres.  相似文献   

3.
Summary In order to explore the spatial and temporal variations of 500 hPa flow patterns and their relationship with the climate of Iran, monthly mean geopotential heights for the region 0° E to 70° E and 20° N to 50° N, at 5 degree resolution, were analysed. The study period covered the winter months October to March during the period 1961–90. The monthly height of the 500 hPa level was averaged along each meridian from 25° N to 45° N. The height of the mean monthly pressure pattern was mapped against the study years. The results showed that the characteristics of the 500 hPa flow pattern varied over monthly and annual time scales. Principal Component Analysis, with S-mode and Varimax rotation, was also used to reduce the gridded data to 5 (6 in October) significant factors. The factor scores for each month were then correlated with monthly Z-scores of precipitation and temperature anomalies over Iran. The results showed that troughs and ridges located close to Iran had more influence on the climate of Iran. Two troughs were identified and named the Caspian and Syrian troughs. Received April 12, 2001 Revised July 24, 2001  相似文献   

4.
Simulation and projection of the characteristics of heat waves over China were investigated using 12 CMIP5 global climate models and the CN05.1 observational gridded dataset. Four heat wave indices (heat wave frequency, longest heat wave duration, heat wave days, and high temperature days) were adopted in the analysis. Evaluations of the 12 CMIP5 models and their ensemble indicated that the multi-model ensemble could capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of heat wave variation over China. The inter-decadal variations of heat waves during 1961–2005 can be well simulated by multi-model ensemble. Based on model projections, the features of heat waves over China for eight different global warming targets (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 °C) were explored. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of heat waves would increase more dramatically as the global mean temperature rise attained higher warming targets. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the four China-averaged heat wave indices would increase from about 1.0 times/year, 2.5, 5.4, and 13.8 days/year to about 3.2 times/year, 14.0, 32.0, and 31.9 days/year for 1.5 and 5.0 °C warming targets, respectively. Those regions that suffer severe heat waves in the base climate would experience the heat waves with greater frequency and severity following global temperature rise. It is also noteworthy that the areas in which a greater number of severe heat waves occur displayed considerable expansion. Moreover, the model uncertainties exhibit a gradual enhancement with projected time extending from 2006 to 2099.  相似文献   

5.
The results of studying the temporal variability of atmospheric circulation in the Western Arctic (the Norwegian and Barents seas) are presented. The daily dataset of Girs-Vangengeim E, W, and C circulation forms for the period of 1891–2016 is used to describe atmospheric circulation. Special attention is given to the estimation of differences in weather conditions during the modern period of warming (1985–2015) and in the period of the first Arctic warming (1920–1950). For the cold (November-March) and warm (April-October) seasons, the trends in the frequency of occurrence of the circulation forms are determined. The occurrence of the number of consecutive days with the same atmospheric circulation form which can be considered as a characteristic of weather stability during the analyzed period of warming, is computed for both seasons. The prevalence of the E circulation form during the warm season is typical of both periods. The modern period of warming in the study area, as compared to the period of the first warming, is characterized by an increase in the occurrence of the C circulation form with a short duration. It is found that the current climate regime is characterized by an increase in surface air temperature against a background of less stable weather conditions.  相似文献   

6.
热带夏季风场与对流场季节内振荡传播模比较   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0       下载免费PDF全文
利用1979-2007年卫星观测日平均OLR资料以及NCEP/DOE第2套再分析资料中的风场资料,采用有限区域波一频分析、合成分析等方法,分析对比对流层高、低层风场与对流场所表征的热带北半球夏季季节内振荡(BSISO)各种传播模态谱分布气候特征及其年际异常。结果表明:各要素反映的BSISO各种模态的气候特征及其年际变化存在一定差异,总体而言对流层低层风(850hPa纬向风或经向风)与对流比较一致。850hPa经向风(纬向风)所反映的纬向(经向)传播BSISO谱分布气候特征与对流情况最相似。在ENSO发展年,850hPa经向风反映的赤道东传波加强趋势与对流较为一致;850hPa纬向风、经向风反映的北传波变化趋势都与对流相似。在ENSO衰减年,850hPa纬向风(经向风)反映的赤道东传波(赤道外西传波)减弱趋势与对流较为一致;对流以及850hPa经向风、200hPa纬向风和200hPa经向风4种要素都能体现南海及周边地区北传波明显减弱这一特征。对流和850hPa纬向风所反映的北传波与印度洋偶极子模态之间关系一致。  相似文献   

7.
张瑞桂  傅秀治 《气象》1995,21(2):23-26
应用谐谱分析同天气图相结合的方法,将1989-1992年春季2-4月(其中缺1989年4月资料)副热带地区超长波分东进型,西退型和稳定加深(强)型;长波分为准静止长波、不连续西退长波和东进长波三种类型,不同的超长波,长波流型给福建春季带不同的中期天气过程。  相似文献   

8.
Daily rainfall variability over southern Africa (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during the austral summer months has recently been described objectively for the first time, using newly derived satellite products. The principle mode of variability in all months is a dipole structure with bands of rainfall orientated northwest to southeast across the region. These represent the location of cloud bands associated with tropical temperate troughs (TTT). This study objectively identifies major TTT events during November to February, and on the basis of composites off NCEP reanalysis data describes the associated atmospheric structure. The two phases of the rainfall dipole are associated with markedly contrasting circulation patterns. There are also pronounced intra-seasonal variations. In early summer the position of the temperate trough and TTT cloud band alternates between the SWIO and southwest Atlantic. In late summer the major TTT axis lies preferentially over the SWIO, associated with an eastward displacement in the Indian Ocean high. In all months, positive events, in which the TTT cloud band lies primarily over the SWIO, are associated with large-scale moisture flux anomalies, in which convergent fluxes form a pronounced poleward flux along the cloud band. This suggests that TTT events are a major mechanism of poleward transfer of energy and momentum. Moisture transport occurs along three principle paths: (1) the northern or central Indian Ocean (where anomalous fluxes extend eastward to the Maritime Continent), (2) south equatorial Africa and the equatorial Atlantic, (3) from the south within a cyclonic flow around the tropical-temperate trough. The relative importance of (2) is greatest in late summer. Thus, synoptic scale TTT events over SA/SWIO often result from large-scale planetary circulation patterns. Hovmoeller plots show that TTT development coincides with enhanced tropical convection between 10°–30°E (itself exhibiting periodicity of around 5 days), and often with convergence of eastward and westward propagating convection around 40°E. Harmonic analysis of 200 hPa geopotential anomalies show that TTT features are forced by a specific zonally asymmetric wave pattern, with wave 5 dominant or significant in all months except February when quasi-stationary waves 1, 2 and 3 dominate. These findings illustrate the importance of tropical and extratropical dynamics in understanding TTT events. Finally, it is suggested that in November–Januar TTT rainfall over SA/SWIO may be in phase with similar rainfall dipole structures observed in the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. Received: 11 August 1998 / Accepted: 28 May 1999  相似文献   

9.
ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The teleconnections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in future climate projections are investigated using results of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. For this, the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and a quadrupled CO2 simulation are considered. It is found that changes of the mean state in the tropical Pacific are likely to condition ENSO teleconnections in the Pacific North America (PNA) region and in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions the changes of the mean states in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific are El Niño-like in this particular model. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are increased predominantly in its eastern part and redistribute the precipitation further eastward. The dynamical response of the atmosphere is such that the equatorial east–west (Walker) circulation and the eastern Pacific inverse Hadley circulation are decreased. Over the subtropical East Pacific and North Atlantic the 200 hPa westerly wind is substantially increased. Composite maps of different climate parameters for positive and negative ENSO events are used to reveal changes of the ENSO teleconnections. Mean sea level pressure and upper tropospheric zonal winds indicate an eastward shift of the well-known teleconnection patterns in the PNA region and an increasing North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) like response over the NAE region. Surface temperature and precipitation underline this effect, particularly over the North Pacific and the central North Atlantic. Moreover, in the NAE region the 200 hPa westerly wind is increasingly related to the stationary wave activity. Here the stationary waves appear NAO-like.  相似文献   

10.
By using the upper-wind data from July 1980 to June 1983,the variations of the low-frequency oscillation(LFO) in the atmosphere before and during 1982 El Nino have been investigated.Before the El Nino,the LFO propagates from west to east over the equator of the Eastern Hemisphere and from east to west over 20°N.The eastward propagating LFO over the equator consists of zonal wavenumber 1 propagating eastward and zonal wavenumber 2 with a character of stationary wave.The oscillation of zonal wavenumber 2 can modulate the oscillation strength.After the onset of the El Nino,the propagating directions of the LFO over the equator and 20°N of the Eastern Hemisphere change to be westward and eastward,respectively.The LFO over the western Pacific weakens rapidly and one coming from middle and high latitudes propagates to the equator.From the phase compositions of streamline fields for the zonal wavenumber 1 of equatorial westward propagatirg LFO,it is found that the atmospheric heat source in the equator of the eastern Pacific(EEP)excites a series of the equatorial cyclones and anticyclones which move northward and westward and form the westward propagating LFO over the equator.With the wavelength of 20000km,this kind of equatorial wave is similar to the mixing Rossby-gravity wave.In its westward and northward movement,the circulation in East Asia is modified.This may be the mechanism of the influence of El Nino on the climate of China.  相似文献   

11.
12.
The daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) field in boreal summer shows significant power spectrum peaks on quasi-biweekly (10–20-day) and intraseasonal (20-80-day) timescales over the Indo-western Pacific warm pool, especially over the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal. The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) originates from off-equatorial western North Pacific, and is characterized by a northwest-southeast oriented wave train pattern, propagating northwestward. The intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), on the other hand, originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagates eastward and northward. Why the equatorial mode possesses a 20–80-day periodicity while the off-equatorial mode favors a 10–20-day periodicity is investigated through idealized numerical experiments with a 2.5-layer atmospheric model. In the off-equatorial region, the model simulates, under a realistic three-dimensional summer mean flow, the most unstable mode that has a wave train pattern with a typical zonal wavelength of 6000 km and a period of 10–20 days, propagating northwestward. This is in contrast to the equatorial region, where a Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) like mode with a planetary (wavenumber-1) zonal scale and a period ranging from 20 to 80 days is simulated. Sensitivity experiments with different initial conditions indicate that the QBWO is an intrinsic mode of the atmosphere in boreal summer in the off-equatorial Indo-western Pacific region under the summer mean state, while the MJO is the most unstable mode in the equatorial region.  相似文献   

13.
从北大西洋中高纬度进入北极的极端气旋会引起北极异常增暖,与中高纬度极端天气事件关系密切,危害极大。利用ERA-Interim再分析资料和中国地面气象站观测资料,探讨了2015年1—2月两个极端气旋(C1,C2)影响中国天气的物理过程和机制。结果表明:当极端气旋生成并北移,附近大气低层和高层均出现异常增暖,中高纬度大气环流表现为乌拉尔阻塞形势形成,极涡断裂,低压槽加深南压,我国发生寒潮天气;且极端气旋伴随的异常增暖加强Rossby波能量频散,使中高纬度的槽和脊发展。对比发现,C1和C2的生成地和路径均存在差异,相比于C2,C1生成纬度较高且路径偏东,对应低温寒潮天气范围更大,但强度比C2略弱。这些结果均表明,极端气旋的生成和移动是中国寒潮天气发生的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

14.
Summary  This paper presents a classification of weather types in the Mediterranean Basin based on cluster analysis of the daily occurrences of several surface pressure centers and the subjective identification of 500 hPa trough axis positions (1992–1996). The procedure results in 20 types that explain 69% of overall pressure center variance and which are consistent with the seasonal succession of regional circulation. The development of weather types in winter is primarily controlled by the eastward propagation of barotropic waves while departures from the zonal flow pattern in summer tend to be linked to blocked stationary pools. H1-types with anticyclonic circulation in the Western Mediterranean and cyclonic flow in the eastern part are well interrelated with zonal and anticyclonic general weather types in Central Europe. H2-types featuring a weak Azores Anticyclone interrelate with a variety of meridional circulation types after the Hess and Brezowski (1969) classification. The 20 types explain rainfall variance in the core Mediterranean regions (as defined by principal components) to a high degree while rainfall variance in marginal regions is influenced by circulation patterns not being typical for the Mediterranean Basin. Received January 29, 1999 Revised March 28, 2000  相似文献   

15.
 The predictability of atmospheric responses to global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated using ensemble simulations of two general circulation models (GCMs): the GENESIS version 1.5 (GEN) and the ECMWF cycle 36 (ECM). The integrations incorporate observed SST variations but start from different initial land and atmospheric states. Five GEN 1980–1992 and six ECM 1980–1988 realizations are compared with observations to distinguish predictable SST forced climate signals from internal variability. To facilitate the study, correlation analysis and significance evaluation techniques are developed on the basis of time series permutations. It is found that the annual mean global area with realistic signals is variable dependent and ranges from 3 to 20% in GEN and 6 to 28% in ECM. More than 95% of these signal areas occur between 35 °S–35 °N. Due to the existence of model biases, robust responses, which are independent of initial condition, are identified over broader areas. Both GCMs demonstrate that the sensitivity to initial conditions decreases and the predictability of SST forced responses increases, in order, from 850 hPa zonal wind, outgoing longwave radiation, 200 hPa zonal wind, sea-level pressure to 500 hPa height. The predictable signals are concentrated in the tropical and subtropical Pacific Ocean and are identified with typical El Ni?o/ Southern Oscillation phenomena that occur in response to SST and diabatic heating anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific. ECM is less sensitive to initial conditions and better predicts SST forced climate changes. This results from (1) a more realistic basic climatology, especially of the upper-level wind circulation, that produces more realistic interactions between the mean flow, stationary waves and tropical forcing; (2) a more vigorous hydrologic cycle that amplifies the tropical forcing signals, which can exceed internal variability and be more efficiently transported from the forcing region. Differences between the models and observations are identified. For GEN during El Ni?o, the convection does not carry energy to a sufficiently high altitude, while the spread of the tropospheric warming along the equator is slower and the anomaly magnitude smaller than observed. This impacts model ability to simulate realistic responses over Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Similar biases exist in the ECM responses. In addition, the relationships between upper and lower tropospheric wind responses to SST forcing are not well reproduced by either model. The identification of these model biases leads to the conclusion that improvements in convective heat and momentum transport parametrizations and basic climate simulations could substantially increase predictive skill. Received: 25 April 1996 / Accepted: 9 December 1996  相似文献   

16.
Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.  相似文献   

17.
长江中下游6—7月降水异常与500 hPa大气环流的关系   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
利用1951—2004年全国160站降水资料和NCEP/NCAR500hPa月平均资料,从中纬度西风环流、位势高度、纬向风、经向风、垂直速度场等方面,分析了长江中下游地区6—7月降水与500hPa大气环流的关系。结果表明,欧亚中纬度地区西风带多雨、少雨年均表现为长波的两槽两脊形势,但是槽脊系统差异显著。长江中下游地区降水与东亚500hPa上空位势高度场、纬向风、经向风、垂直速度场均有显著的关系,进一步证明了长江中下游地区6—7月降水与500hPa大气环流有密切关系。  相似文献   

18.
The winter time weather variability over the Mediterranean is studied in relation to the prevailing weather regimes (WRs) over the region. Using daily geopotential heights at 700 hPa from the ECMWF ERA40 Reanalysis Project and Cluster Analysis, four WRs are identified, in increasing order of frequency of occurrence, as cyclonic (22.0 %), zonal (24.8 %), meridional (25.2 %) and anticyclonic (28.0 %). The surface climate, cloud distribution and radiation patterns associated with these winter WRs are deduced from satellite (ISCCP) and other observational (E-OBS, ERA40) datasets. The LMDz atmosphere–ocean regional climate model is able to simulate successfully the same four Mediterranean weather regimes and reproduce the associated surface and atmospheric conditions for the present climate (1961–1990). Both observational- and LMDz-based computations show that the four Mediterranean weather regimes control the region’s weather and climate conditions during winter, exhibiting significant differences between them as for temperature, precipitation, cloudiness and radiation distributions within the region. Projections (2021–2050) of the winter Mediterranean weather and climate are obtained using the LMDz model and analysed in relation to the simulated changes in the four WRs. According to the SRES A1B emission scenario, a significant warming (between 2 and 4 °C) is projected to occur in the region, along with a precipitation decrease by 10–20 % in southern Europe, Mediterranean Sea and North Africa, against a 10 % precipitation increase in northern European areas. The projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the Mediterranean are explained by the model-predicted changes in the frequency of occurrence as well as in the intra-seasonal variability of the regional weather regimes. The anticyclonic configuration is projected to become more recurrent, contributing to the decreased precipitation over most of the basin, while the cyclonic and zonal ones become more sporadic, resulting in more days with below normal precipitation over most of the basin, and on the eastern part of the region, respectively. The changes in frequency and intra-seasonal variability highlights the usefulness of dynamics versus statistical downscaling techniques for climate change studies.  相似文献   

19.
北半球50hPa平均环流的若干特征及其与500hPa的某些关联   总被引:4,自引:6,他引:4  
瞿章  张海俊 《高原气象》1990,9(4):424-431
本文根据北半球50hPa20年平均环流的槽脊特征,分析发现:在全年各月,尤其是冬半年中高纬圈,以2波为主要特征;夏季50hPa平均环流在30°N圈的90—120°E上存在着可能是青藏高原影响的强高压脊。 对50hPa超长波的波数、波长以及500hPa占50hPa波长之比率分析发现:由于地转偏向力向北(南)的增加(减小)和平均波长向北(南)的减小(增大)的相反作用的共同结果,50hPa上的波数在极地和赤道少,而在中纬度最多,这与500 hPa相类似; 对流层(500hPa)与平流层(50hPa)的平均波长比率冬季明显大于夏季,尤其是中高纬度。这表明中高纬度对流层与平流层之间冬季比夏季有着更多的相互作用。这与Charney和Drazin的理论分析相一致。  相似文献   

20.
Using observational data and model simulations,the author find that the North Indian Ocean(NIO)sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies can trigger an eastward atmospheric Kelvin wave propagating into the equatorial western Pacific,inducing an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical Northwest Pacific(NWP)and resulting in prominent summer climate anomalies in the East Asia-Northwest Pacific(EANWP)region.However,the response of tropospheric temperatures and atmospheric Kelvin waves to the South Indian Ocean(SIO)SST anomalies is weak;as a result,the impact of the SIO SST anomalies on the EANWP summer climate is weak.The contrasting impacts of NIO and SIO SST anomalies on the EANWP summer climate is possibly due to the different mean state of SSTs in the two regions.In summer,the climatological SSTs in the NIO are higher than in the SIO,leading to a stronger response of atmospheric convection to the NIO SST anomalies than to the SIO SST anomalies.Thus,compared with the SIO SST anomalies,the NIO SST anomalies can lead to stronger tropospheric air temperature anomalies and atmospheric Kelvin waves to affect the EANWP summer climate.  相似文献   

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