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1.
This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.  相似文献   

2.
The Palmer indices (PIs) that have been most widely used for drought monitoring and assessment are criticized for two main drawbacks: coarse hydrological accounting processes with a simplified two-stage bucket soil water balance model and arbitrary rules for defining drought properties and standardizing index values through limited calibration and comparison. In this study, we introduce a new proposal of the VIC hydrologic model-based Palmer drought scheme, where traditional PIs (e.g. PDSI) can readily be calculated on the basis of distributed finescale hydrologic simulations. Moreover, recent variants of PI (i.e., SPDI and SPDI-JDI) also provide a preferable standardization strategy that allows probabilistic invariability and better spatio-temporal comparability of computed drought indices. Using gridded meteorological forcing, soil and vegetation data to drive the three-layer VIC model, both non-VIC and VIC-based PIs are investigated to examine their performances for drought characterization and detection. Results indicate that VIC hydrologic model would allow for adjustments in statistical properties of computed PDSI and VIC-based SPDI is also preferable to PDSI for better statistical robustness and spatio-temporal consistency/comparability. Moreover, the joint SPDI-JDI has the strength of integrating multi-scale probabilistic properties and drought information released by individual SPDI, providing overall drought conditions that take into account the onset, persistence and termination of droughts. At proposed 0.25° grid scale, the VIC-based SPDI-JDI indicates high frequency and long total time of drought condition in the Yellow River basin (YRB), China. Although no significant temporal trends are found in identified drought duration and severity, both the seasonal and annual drought index values demonstrate a downward trend (higher drought intensity) for considerable proportions of the YRB. These findings imply high drought risk and potential drying stress for this region. The new framework of hydrologic model-based PIs can help to strengthen our knowledge and/or practices in regional drought monitoring and assessment.  相似文献   

3.
Regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices in China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The definition of a drought index is the foundation of drought research. However, because of the complexity of drought, there is no a unified drought index appropriate for different drought types and objects at the same time. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the regional applicability of various drought indices. Using terrestrial water storage obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment, and the observed soil moisture and streamflow in China, we evaluated the regional applicability of seven meteorological drought indices: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), modified PDSI (PDSI_CN) based on observations in China, self-calibrating PDSI (scPDSI), Surface Wetness Index (SWI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing (CLM3.5/ObsFC). The results showed that the scPDSI is most appropriate for China. However, it should be noted that the scPDSI reduces the value range slightly compared with the PDSI and PDSI_CN; thus, the classification of dry and wet conditions should be adjusted accordingly. Some problems might exist when using the PDSI and PDSI_CN in humid and arid areas because of the unsuitability of empiricalparameters. The SPI and SPEI are more appropriate for humid areas than arid and semiarid areas. This is because contributions of temperature variation to drought are neglected in the SPI, but overestimated in the SPEI, when potential evapotranspiration is estimated by the Thornthwaite method in these areas. Consequently, the SPI and SPEI tend to induce wetter and drier results, respectively. The CLM3.5/ObsFC is suitable for China before 2000, but not for arid and semiarid areas after 2000. Consistent with other drought indices, the SWI shows similar interannual and decadal change characteristics in detecting annual dry/wet variations. Although the long-term trends of drought areas in China detected by these seven drought indices during 1961–2013 are consistent, obvious differences exist among the values of drought areas, which might be attributable to the definitions of the drought indices in addition to climatic change.  相似文献   

4.
Rainwater harvesting could increase the resilience of ecosystems on the Loess Plateau and thus ensure the sustainability of livelihoods that depend on them. As such, it is a key component of strategies for adapting to global climate change. In this study, we used a new method to quantify the rainwater harvesting potential (RWHP) across the whole Loess Plateau and to characterize its spatial and temporal variation over the last four decades on the basis of the variable infiltration capacity model. It was found that that the mean RWHP of the study region was 731.10 × 108 m3, and the average water layer thickness was 114.34 mm. There is considerable scope for rainwater harvesting across the Loess Plateau as a whole, to the extent that it could potentially provide enough water to implement the ‘Grain for Green’ Project. The annual average RWHP decreased slightly from 1971 to 2010, and Hurst exponent analysis indicated that this trend will exhibit long‐term persistence. The annual RWHP was highest in the southeast of the Loess Plateau and lowest in the northwest. Areas with high RWHP values tended to be clustered around the middle reach of the Yellow River. For most areas, there was no significant change between 1971 and 2010. Those areas for which there was a significant decrease in RWHP were primarily located around the upper–middle reaches of the Weihe River, the upper reach of Jinghe River, the eastern Guanzhong Plain, the Qinhe River watershed and the area around Dongsheng. Quantitative assessments of RWHP are likely to be useful for guiding the development and use of innovative rainwater harvesting technologies around the world and could help to relieve the problems caused by water shortages on the Loess Plateau while simultaneously eliminate the major cause of soil erosion. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
With climate change and the rapid increase in water demand, droughts, whose intensity, duration and frequency have shown an increasing trend in China over the past decades, are increasingly becoming a critical constraint to China’s sustainable socio-economic development, especially in Northern China, even more so. Therefore, it is essential to develop an appropriate drought assessment approach in China. To propose a suitable drought index for drought assessment, the Luanhe river basin in the northern China was selected as a case study site. Based on the Principal Component Analysis of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff, the three latter variables of which were obtained by using the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface macro-scale hydrology model, a new multivariate drought index (MDI) was formulated, and its thresholds were determined by use of cumulative distribution function. To test the applicability of the newly developed index, the MDI, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the palmer drought severity index (PDSI) time series on a monthly scale were computed and compared during 1962–1963, 1968 and 1972 drought events. The results show that the MDI exhibited certain advantages over the PDSI and the SPI, i.e. better assessing drought severity and better reflecting drought evolution. The MDI formulated by this paper could provide a scientific basis for drought mitigation and management, and references for drought assessment elsewhere in China.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Considering the drawbacks of the original Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) in terms of its simplified hydrologic algorithm and spatio-temporal inconsistency, we compare six variants of PDSI derived from different combinations of two hydrologic algorithms and three standard processes so as to provide deep insights into the individual impacts of hydrological processing and standardization on final PDSI values as well as their combined effects. Investigations are conducted in whole Yellow River basin. On basis of 52 years’ (1961–2012) hydro-meteorological data, comprehensive analysis on multiple drought characteristics are carried out for each PDSI variant, combined with comparison of three crucial intermediate variables of PDSI. Results show that variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model based modification in the hydrologic accounting section significantly improve drought trends with more reasonable spatial distributions presented. For the statistical characteristics of drought areas and frequency, comparable performance is found between VIC-based modification and self-calibrating standard procedure-based modification, though they are derived from different mechanisms. However, in case of the coupling of these two modifications, indices derived from combined modifications perform poorly than single modification-based indices with unexpected high frequency of extreme events detected in certain regions. This reflects the complicated mechanism of PDSI and it is essential to propose an appropriate standardization to match the hydrological algorithm and further improve the performance of relevant drought index. With the crucial findings mentioned above, this study is promising to provide some theoretical supports and serve as a competent reference for future PDSI based researches.  相似文献   

8.
Local dry/wet conditions and extreme rainfall events are of great concern in regional water resource and disaster risk management. Extensive studies have been carried out to investigate the change of dry/wet conditions and the adaptive responses to extreme rainfall events within the context of climate change. However, applicable tools and their usefulness are still not sufficiently studied, and in Hunan Province, a major grain-producing area in China that has been frequently hit by flood and drought, relevant research is even more limited. This paper investigates the spatiotemporal variation of dry/wet conditions and their annual/seasonal trends in Hunan with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various time scales. Furthermore, to verify the potential usefulness of SPI for drought/flood monitoring, the correlation between river discharge and SPI at multiple time scales was examined, and the relation between extreme SPI and the occurrence of historical drought/flood events is explored. The results indicate that the upper reaches of the major rivers in Hunan Province have experienced more dry years than the middle and lower reaches over the past 57 years, and the region shows a trend of becoming drier in the spring and autumn seasons and wetter in the summer and winter seasons. We also found a strong correlation between river discharge and SPI series, with the maximum correlation coefficient occurred at the time scale of 2 months. SPI at different time scales may vary in its usefulness in drought/flood monitoring, and this highlights the need for a comprehensive consideration of various time scales when SPI is employed to monitor droughts and floods.  相似文献   

9.
The similarity between loess palaeo- environment and geographic distribution of modem bioclimatic zones is taken as a starting point; the relationship between the environmental aridization and soil water in loess ia discussed from the point view of the soil water energy status and their soil water physical characteristics of modem lcessial soils on the Loess Plateau. The soil water content becomes less and less from southeast to northwest, which not only provides favorable conditions for dust production by wind of loess origin, but also reveals that there is obviously a directional change in the environmental drought intensity of the Loess Plateau. Project supported by the key pmject (KZ951-B1-211) of ecological and environmental study of the Chinese Academy of Sciences  相似文献   

10.
Droughts are natural phenomena that severely affect socio economic and ecological systems. In Chile, population and economic activities are highly concentrated in its central region (i.e. between latitudes 29°S and 40°S), which periodically suffers from severe droughts affecting agriculture, hydropower, and mining. Understanding the dynamics of droughts and large-scale atmospheric processes that influence the occurrence of dry spells is essential for forecasting and efficient early detection of drought events. Central Chile's climate is marked by a significant El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence that might help to better characterize droughts as well as to identify the effects of ENSO on the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the region. We analysed the behaviour of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) time series for 6-month accumulation periods over the austral winter and summer seasons. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) showed a significant ENSO influence on dry events for SPEI-6 and SSI-6 during winter and summer. We found that the magnitude of correlation between ENSO and SPEI-6 has changed over the last decades becoming weaker in winter periods and increasing in spring summer periods. Increasing trends in meteorological and hydrological drought events were also identified, along all latitudes, with significant trends during winter in the southern latitudes, and during summer in the semi-arid and Mediterranean zones. These results indicate that drought mitigation actions and policies are necessary to overcome their adverse effects. Given the monthly persistence of ENSO and its relationship to drought indices, there are opportunities for drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting that could become part of national drought management systems.  相似文献   

11.
China's Loess Plateau is located at the edge of the Asian summer monsoon in a transition zone of climate and ecology. In the Loess Plateau, climate and environments change along with space, which has an obvious impact on the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes. Because of scarce land-surface observation sites and short observation time in this area, previous studies have failed to fully understand the land-surface energy balance characteristics over the entire the Loess Plateau and their effect mechanisms. In this paper, we first test the simulation ability of the Community Land Model(CLM) model by comparing its simulated data with observed data. Based on the simulation data for the Loess Plateau over the past thirty years, we then analyze the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes and compare the pattern differences between the area averages for the driest year and wettest year. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the spatial distribution of the components of the surface energy balance with longitude, latitude, altitude, precipitation and temperature. The main results are as follows: the spatial distribution of surface energy fluxes are significantly different, with the surface net radiation and sensible heat flux increasing from south to north and latent heat flux and soil heat flux decreasing from southeast to northwest. The sensible heat flux at the driest point is nearly twice as high as that at the wettest point, whereas the latent heat flux and soil heat flux at the driest point are half as much as that at the wettest point. The impact of variations of annual precipitation on the components of the surface energy balance is also obvious, and the maximum magnitude of the changes to the sensible heat flux and latent heat flux is nearly 30%. To a certain extent, geographical factors(including longitude, latitude, and altitude) and climate factors(including temperature and precipitation) affect the surface energy fluxes. However, the surface net radiation is more closely related to latitude and altitude, sensible heat flux is more closely related to the monsoon rainfall and latitude, and latent heat flux and soil heat flux are more closely related to the monsoon rainfall.  相似文献   

12.
Monthly data of Self-Calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1951 to 2000 are calculated using historical precipitation and temperature data for Chinese 160 stations. Temporal and spatial patterns of the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature, which is similar to the linear PDSI trend during 1951–2000 calculated using all monthly data. The EOF analysis also reveals that the leading mode correlates significantly with ENSO events in time and space. The ENSO EOF shows that during the typical warm phase of ENSO, surface conditions are drier in most regions of China, especially North China, but wetter than normal in the southern regions of Changjiang River, and Northwest China. During the typical cold phase of ENSO, these anomalies reverse sign. From 1951 to 2000, there are large multi-year to decadal variations in droughts and wet spells over China, which are all closely related to strong El Niño events. In other words, when one strong El Niño event happens, there is a possible big variability in droughts and wet spells over China on the multi-year or decadal scale. Studies also suggest that during the last 2–3 decades climate changes over China, especially North China’s drying and northwest China’s wetting, are closely related to the shift in ENSO towards warmer events and global warming since the late 1970s. The instability of the relationship is also studied. It is revealed that there is a good correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells in the 3–8-year band, but the correlation between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is instable. Studies suggest that there are decadal changes in the correlation: the wavelet coherency between ENSO and Chinese variations in droughts and wet spells is high during 1951–1962 and 1976–1991, but low during 1963–1975 and 1992–2000.  相似文献   

13.
H. Moradkhani 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6292-6308
In this study the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This paper aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Hydrologic modeling is performed by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model at a 1/8° resolution and the model is driven by climate scenarios provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) including nine regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Analysis is performed for both the historical (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods. Downscaling of the climate variables including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and wind speed is done using the quantile‐mapping (QM) approach. A spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is then developed to analyse the annual maximum runoff in different seasons for both historical and future time periods. The estimated spatial changes in extreme runoffs over the future period vary depending on the RCM driving the hydrologic model. The hierarchical Bayesian model characterizes the spatial variations in the marginal distributions of the General Extreme Value (GEV) parameters and the corresponding 100‐year return level runoffs. Results show an increase in the 100‐year return level runoffs for most regions in particular over the high elevation areas during winter. The Canadian portions of the study region reflect higher increases during spring. However, reduction of extreme events in several regions is projected during summer. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Spatiotemporal variations of Chinese Loess Plateau vegetation cover during 1981-2006 have been investigated using GIMMS and SPOT VGT NDVI data and the cause of vegetation cover changes has been analyzed, considering the climate changes and human activities. Vegetation cover changes on the Loess Plateau have experienced four stages as follows: (1) vegetation cover showed a continued increasing phase during 1981―1989; (2) vegetation cover changes came into a relative steady phase with small fluctuations during 1990―1998; (3) vegetation cover declined rapidly during 1999―2001; and (4) vegetation cover increased rapidly during 2002―2006. The vegetation cover changes of the Loess Plateau show a notable spatial difference. The vegetation cover has obviously increased in the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia plain along the Yellow River and the ecological rehabilitated region of Ordos Plateau, however the vegetation cover evidently decreased in the hilly and gully areas of Loess Plateau, Liupan Mountains region and the northern hillside of Qinling Mountains. The response of NDVI to climate changes varied with different vegetation types. NDVI of sandy land vegetation, grassland and cultivated land show a significant increasing trend, but forest shows a decreasing trend. The results obtained in this study show that the spatiotemporal variations of vegetation cover are the outcome of climate changes and human activities. Temperature is a control factor of the seasonal change of vegetation growth. The increased temperature makes soil drier and unfavors vegetation growth in summer, but it favors vegetation growth in spring and autumn because of a longer growing period. There is a significant correlation between vegetation cover and precipitation and thus, the change in precipitation is an important factor for vegetation variation. The improved agricultural production has resulted in an increase of NDVI in the farmland, and the implementation of large-scale vegetation construction has led to some beneficial effect in ecology.  相似文献   

15.
The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Signs of the evolutionary process are well preserved in the aeolian deposits of desert margins and enable reconstruction of desert expansion and contraction. The sand content (percentage >63 µm) of loess in the loess–desert transitional zone was used as a proxy indicator for determining the proximity of the desert margin. According to the dominant wind direction, generally NW–SE in the northwest Chinese Loess Plateau, a transect was projected to observe spatial changes in sedimentological characteristics of aeolian deposits during the Last Glacial Period. The transect consists of 12 loess sections, starting at Shapotou in the transitional region between the Loess Plateau and the Tengger Desert and ending at Tianshui, which is located at the north foot of the Western Qinling Mountains in the southernmost part of the Loess Plateau. It shows the properties of temporal and spatial distribution of the Malan loess, with reduced sand content from northwest to southeast. A linear correlation model of sand content and distance was obtained, which was similar to the east of the Chinese Loess Plateau. According to this model, and on the basis of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating from Binggou section, a detailed and quantificational expansion and contraction for the Tengger Desert was established. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Spatiotemporal trends in precipitation may influence vegetation restoration, and extreme precipitation events profoundly affect soil erosion processes on the Loess Plateau. Daily data collected at 89 meteorological stations in the area between 1957 and 2009 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal trends of precipitation on the Loess Plateau and the return periods of different types of precipitation events classified in the study. Nonparametric methods were employed for temporal analysis, and the Kriging interpolation method was employed for spatial analysis. The results indicate a small decrease in precipitation over the Loess Plateau in last 53 years (although a Mann–Kendall test did not show this decrease to be significant), a southward shift in precipitation isohyets, a slightly delayed rainy season, and prolonged return periods, especially for rainstorm and heavy rainstorm events. Regional responses to global climate change have varied greatly. A slightly increasing trend in precipitation in annual and sub‐annual series, with no obvious shift of isohyets, and an evident decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events were detected in the northwest. In the southeast, correspondingly, a more seriously decreasing trend occurred, with clear shifts of isohyets and a slightly decreasing trend in extreme precipitation events. The result suggests that a negative trend in annual precipitation may have led to decreased soil erosion but an increase in sediment yield during several extreme events. These changes in the precipitation over the Loess Plateau should be noted, and countermeasures should be taken to reduce their adverse impacts on the sustainable development of the region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
《水文科学杂志》2012,57(2):242-253
ABSTRACT

The Source Region of Three Rivers (SRTR) has experienced wetter summer seasons than before in recent decades due to climate change. As the most important source of surface water, precipitation plays a key role in supplying the three largest rivers. This study investigates the impacts of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) on precipitation in the SRTR. Using wavelet analysis tools, we found that: (i) summer precipitation in the SRTR showed notably different responses to the monsoon variability among the 14 stations studied; (ii) the influence of the EASM and SASM on summer precipitation was stronger in the southern and eastern SRTR; but (iii) this influence quickly dampened from southeast to northwest and became almost indiscernible in the northwestern SRTR. This research may help to increase the accuracy of long-term monsoon-rainfall prediction and improve water resource management in the SRTR.  相似文献   

19.
The Loess Plateau in China constitutes an important source area for both water and sediments to the Yellow River. Thus, improved prediction techniques of rainfall may lead to better estimation of discharge and sediment content for the Yellow River. Consequently, the objective of this study was to establish better links between rainfall of the Loess Plateau in China and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean. Results showed that there is a strong lagged correlation between and SST and rainfall. The SST for Micronesia and areas south of the Aleutian Islands showed significant correlations (s.f. < 0·001; 99·9%) with rainfall over the dryer region of the Loess Plateau for a lag of 4 to 6 months. The SST over the equator on the east Pacific Ocean also showed significant negative correlation with rainfall. Low and middle latitude areas (S10–20° and around 30° ) of the south‐east Pacific Ocean displayed significant positive and negative correlation with rainfall on the semiarid Loess Plateau. The differenced SST values (positive SST minus negative SST) increased these correlations with rainfall. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was used to predict summer rainfall from the differenced SST during the spring period. The correlation between predicted and observed monthly rainfall was in general larger than 0·7. This indicates that major annual rainfall (during summer season) can be predicted with good accuracy using the suggested approach. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Rapid East Asian Monsoon oscillations recorded by Chinese loess are thought to be dynamically linked to north Atlantic climate. However, few efforts have been made to assess the effects of post-depositional processes (e.g., surface mixing and pedogenesis) on loess paleoclimatic records. Here a detailed optically stimulated luminescence dating of a thick loess sequence from the western Loess Plateau is presented, offering a reliable chronology for last glacial deposits. Magnetic susceptibility and mean grain size records from three loess–paleosol sequences along a northwest–southeast transect are investigated to evaluate impacts of post-depositional processes on these loess-based proxy records. Our results indicate that: (1) loess sequences developed within the flat tableland of the central and western Loess Plateau are nearly continuous during the last glaciation; and (2) post-depositional processes have distinct impacts on rapid monsoon signals recorded in loess sequences from different regions. In the central Loess Plateau, rapid monsoon signals have been attenuated to various degrees depending on the sedimentation rate and pedogenic intensity. In the northwestern Loess Plateau, however, due to high sedimentation rate and relatively weak pedogenesis, high-resolution grain size oscillations reliably record rapid monsoon changes and can be well correlated to rapid climate changes recorded in the Greenland ice core and Hulu cave stalagmite.  相似文献   

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