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1.
In this study, the climate teleconnections with meteorological droughts are analysed and used to develop ensemble drought prediction models using a support vector machine (SVM)–copula approach over Western Rajasthan (India). The meteorological droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). In the analysis of large‐scale climate forcing represented by climate indices such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on regional droughts, it is found that regional droughts exhibits interannual as well as interdecadal variability. On the basis of potential teleconnections between regional droughts and climate indices, SPI‐based drought forecasting models are developed with up to 3 months' lead time. As traditional statistical forecast models are unable to capture nonlinearity and nonstationarity associated with drought forecasts, a machine learning technique, namely, support vector regression (SVR), is adopted to forecast the drought index, and the copula method is used to model the joint distribution of observed and predicted drought index. The copula‐based conditional distribution of an observed drought index conditioned on predicted drought index is utilized to simulate ensembles of drought forecasts. Two variants of drought forecast models are developed, namely a single model for all the periods in a year and separate models for each of the four seasons in a year. The performance of developed models is validated for predicting drought time series for 10 years' data. Improvement in ensemble prediction of drought indices is observed for combined seasonal model over the single model without seasonal partitions. The results show that the proposed SVM–copula approach improves the drought prediction capability and provides estimation of uncertainty associated with drought predictions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Shib Sankar Ganguli Nimisha Vedanti Idar Akervoll V. P. Dimri 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(3):273-280
The utilization of anthropogenic CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) can significantly extend the production life of an oil field, and help in the reduction of atmospheric emission of anthropogenic CO2 if sequestration is considered. This work summarizes the prospect of EOR and sequestration using CO2 flooding from an Indian mature oil field at Cambay basin through numerical modelling, simulation and pressure study based on limited data provided by the operator. To get an insight into CO2-EOR and safe storage process in this oil field, a conceptual sector model is developed and screening standard is proposed keeping in mind the major pay zone of the producing reservoir. To construct the geomodel, depth maps, well positions and coordinates, well data and well logs, perforation depths and distribution of petrophysical properties as well as fluid properties provided by the operator, has been considered. Based on the results from the present study, we identified that the reservoir has the potential for safe and economic geological sequestration of 15.04×106 metric ton CO2 in conjunction with a substantial increase in oil recovery of 10.4% of original oil in place. CO2-EOR and storage in this mature field has a bright application prospect since the findings of the present work could be a better input to manage the reservoir productivity, and the pressure field for significant enhancement of oil recovery followed by safe storage. 相似文献
3.
The molecular sources, dynamics and analytical characterizations of the phosphorus (P) containing components of marine dissolved and particulate organic matter (OM) are reviewed. Using a combination of 13C and 31P nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy on samples collected from a depth profile (20-4000 m) at Station Aloha in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, the biomolecular associations of P functional groups in marine OM are identified. Compositional differences between ultrafiltered dissolved organic matter (UDOM; 1-100 nm size fraction) and ultrafiltered particulate organic matter (UPOM; 0.1-60 μm size fraction) as reflected by NMR and elemental analyses indicate that UDOM does not originate from simple solubilization of UPOM, and the aggregation of UDOM is not the primary source of UPOM. Regression analyses indicated a large fraction of the P in UDOM is associated with carbohydrates and amino acids, but not with lipids. Similar analyses for UPOM indicated that P is associated with carbohydrates, amino acids and lipids. The P functional groups also appear to be balanced in their distribution among molecular classes, because they remain in relatively constant proportion throughout the ocean. 相似文献
4.
Probabilistic assessment of flood risks using trivariate copulas 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
In this paper, a copula-based methodology is presented for probabilistic assessment of flood risks and investigated the performance of trivariate copulas in modeling dependence structure of flood properties. The flood is a multi-attribute natural hazard and is characterized by mutually correlated flood properties peak flow, volume, and duration of flood hydrograph. For assessing flood risk, many studies have used bivariate analysis, but a more effective assessment can be possible considering all three mutually correlated flood properties simultaneously. This study adopts trivariate copulas for multivariate analysis of flood risks, and applied to a case study of flood flows of Delaware River basin at Port Jervis, NY, USA. On evaluation of various probability distributions for representation of flood variables, it is found that the flood peak flow and volumes can be best represented by Fréchet distribution, whereas flood duration by log-normal distribution. The joint distribution is modeled using four trivariate copulas, namely, three fully nested form of Archimedean copulas: Clayton, Gumbel–Hougaard, Frank copulas; and one elliptical copula: Student’s t copula. Based on distance-based performance measures, graphical tests, and tail-dependence measures, it is found that the Student’s t copula best representing the trivariate dependence structure of flood properties as compared to the other copulas. Similar results are found for bivariate copula modeling of flood variables pairs, where Student’s t copula performed better than the other copulas. The obtained copula-based joint distributions are used for multivariate analysis of flood risks, in terms of primary and secondary return periods. The resultant trivariate return periods are compared with univariate and bivariate return periods, and addressed the necessity of multivariate flood risk analysis. The study concludes that the trivariate copula-based methodology is a viable choice for effective risk assessment of floods. 相似文献
5.
Shib Sankar Ganguli Goutam Kumar Nayak Nimisha Vedanti V.P. Dimri 《Geophysical Prospecting》2016,64(2):456-468
For a magnetic target, the spatial magnetic signal can be expressed as a convolutional integral over Green's function of an assumed model with susceptibility as its parameter. A filter can be used to obtain the susceptibility by minimizing the mismatch between observed and the computed magnetic anomalies. In this perspective, we report the development of an advanced digital filter, which is efficient and can be used to map rock susceptibility from the acquired magnetic data. To design the new filter, we modified the space‐domain standard Wiener–Hopf filter by imposing two different constraints: (i) the filter energy constraint; and (ii) normalization of the filter coefficients. These constraints make it capable to characterize source bodies from their produced magnetic anomalies. We assume that the magnetic data are produced by induced magnetization only and interpretation can be as good as the subsurface model. Our technique is less sensitive to the data noise, which makes it efficient in enhancing the interpretation model. The modified filter demonstrates its applicability over the synthetic data with additive white Gaussian noise. In order to check the efficacy and adaptivity of this tool in a more realistic perspective, it is also tested on the real magnetic data acquired over a kimberlitic district adjoining to the western margin of the Cuddapah Basin in India to identify the source bodies from the anomalies. Our result shows that the modified Wiener–Hopf filter with the constraint for the magnetic data is more stable and efficient than the standard Wiener–Hopf filter. 相似文献
6.
Robert A Creaser Poulomi Sannigrahi Thomas ChackoDavid Selby 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2002,66(19):3441-3452
Re-Os isotopic analyses of a single organic-rich sedimentary rock unit (ORS) of known depositional age, and at three levels of regional hydrocarbon maturity, show that hydrocarbon maturation does not affect the ability the 187Re-187Os chronometer to yield a depositional age for such rocks. We present Re-Os isotope analyses from the Late Devonian Exshaw Formation in the subsurface of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, Alberta, and obtain a Re-Os isochron age of 358 ± 10 Ma (2σ, Model 3, λ = 1.666 × 10−11.a−1) for samples ranging from hydrocarbon immature to overmature. This age is within uncertainty of the established absolute age for the Exshaw Formation. Hydrocarbon immature, and mature plus overmature samples show no significant age differences if regressed individually, indicating that hydrocarbon maturation did not greatly disturb the Re-Os isotope system in the Exshaw Formation. As such, we propose that the Re-Os geochronometer may be used as a reliable tool for measuring the depositional ages of ORS regardless of their level of hydrocarbon maturity. We find that minimizing natural variation in the initial 187Os/188Os ratio is more important than avoiding hydrocarbon maturation in obtaining precise Re-Os ages. In particular, the Exshaw Formation appears to contain a nonhydrogenous component of unradiogenic Os, in addition to the hydrogenous Os load. A subset of Exshaw Formation samples with >5% total organic carbon (TOC), which should best reflect the hydrogenous Os load alone, yields a very well-fitted isochron having a depositional age of 358 ± 9 Ma (2σ, λ = 1.666 × 10−11.a−1) with an initial 187Os/188Os ratio of 0.59 ± 0.05 (Model 3, Mean Square of Weighted Deviates (MSWD) = 1.8). The initial 187Os/188Os ratio of this regression may provide an estimate of the Os isotopic composition of local seawater at the time of deposition. 相似文献
7.
This study presents copula‐based multivariate probabilistic approach to model severity–duration–frequency (S‐D‐F) relationship of drought events in western Rajasthan, India. Drought occurrences are analysed using standardized precipitation index computed on monthly mean areal precipitation, aggregated at a time scale of 6 months. After testing with a series of probability density functions, the drought variable severity is found to be better represented with log‐normal distribution, whereas duration is well fitted with exponential distribution. Four different classes of bivariate copulas – Archimedean, extreme value, Plackett, and elliptical families are evaluated for modelling joint distribution of drought characteristics. It is observed that the extreme value copula – Gumbel–Hougaard copula – performed better as compared with other classes of copulas, based on results of various statistical tests and upper tail dependence coefficient. The joint distribution obtained from best performing copula is then employed to determine conditional return period and to derive drought severity‐duration‐frequency (S‐D‐F) curves for the study region. The results of the study suggests that the copula method can be used effectively to derive the drought S‐D‐F curves, which can be helpful in planning and adopting suitable drought mitigation strategies in drought‐prone areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Summary Some propagation characteristics of low frequency surface waves have been studied at the different soil formations. The field records were obtained by operating a mechanical-optical seismograph in the vicinity of small explosions. The records have been analysed for both amplitude and spectral attenuation studies. The existence of power laws are suggested in general. 相似文献
9.
A review is made of recent major advances in plasmaspheric research; important results have emerged from those concerning a variety of plasmasphere features. Both experiments and modeling efforts have progressed. A number of unknowns still persist, however, but research is underway toward their clarification. These clarifications are essential for obtaining a predictive capability of the near-Earth space weather in the plasmasphere region. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, comparative evaluation of various local and global learning algorithms in neural network modeling was performed for ore grade estimation in three deposits: gold, bauxite, and iron ore. Four local learning algorithms, standard back-propagation, back-propagation with momentum, quickprop back-propagation, and Levenberg–Marquardt back-propagation, along with two global learning algorithms, NOVEL and simulated annealing, were investigated for this purpose. The study results revealed that no benefit was achieved using global learning algorithms over local learning algorithms. The reasons for showing equivalent performance of global and local learning algorithms was the smooth error surface of neural network training for these specific case studies. However, a separate exercise involving local and global learning algorithms on a nonlinear multimodal optimization of a Rastrigin function, containing many local minima, clearly demonstrated the superior performance of global learning algorithms over local learning algorithms. Although no benefit was found by using global learning algorithms of neural network training for these specific case studies, as a safeguard against getting trapped in local minima, it is better to apply global learning algorithms in neural network training since many real-life applications of neural network modeling show local minima problems in error surface. 相似文献