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1.
GUO Zeng-Jian 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(4):477-480
IntroductionIn the book Future CataS~ologr published in 1992, we proposed a viewpoiflt on using the"criterion of activity in quiescence" to predict big eathquake (MsZ7) (GUO, et al, 1992), and predicted in the book that in futore several years or in ten years a big earthquake (Ms27) will be possible to occur in the Zhongdian and nearby in Yunnan Province. In the 1994 nation-wide earthquake tendency consultation meeting we pointed out, once more, in the Zhongdian region of Yunnan Province… 相似文献
2.
IntroductionMany anomalies due to earthquake have been recorded in observation of earth-resistivity for30 years and over, which showed that there objectively existed the anomalies of each-resistivity.The crustal strUcture and medium conditions are quite complex, so the complexity of the temporal,spatial and intensive development of the anomalies is inevitable. Both of time and amplitUde ofanomalies among some stations near an epicenter are different (even among different observational directi… 相似文献
3.
Dozens of >M5, hundreds of >M4, and much more >M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic
stations. After relocated with P arrival, the >M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent
with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks
occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and
regional seismograph network of China, and employed “Cut and Paste” method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big
aftershocks (M⩾5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most
end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY)
are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the
aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main
shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (∼18 km).
So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault.
The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area.
Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX3-SW-153, KZCX2-YW-116-1), National
Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40604004), and National Basic Technology R & D Program (Grant No. 2006BAC01B02-01-02). 相似文献
4.
利用2010~2016年阳江地区小震资料,对围绕广东阳江6.4级地震发震构造的NEE走向平冈断层的西南段及NW走向的程村断层展布的密集地震,经双差定位方法重新进行震源位置的修定,获得了1411个精定位震源资料。依据成丛地震发生在断层附近的原则,采用模拟退火算法及高斯-牛顿算法相结合的方式,较精确地获得了2个断层面的详细参数：即平冈断层西南段走向258°、倾角85°、倾向NW,与6.4级地震的震源机制解结果十分一致,断层长度约15km并穿过了其西南端海域抵达了对岸;程村断层走向331°、倾角88°、倾向NE,长度约28km,较已有结果更长、走向也朝NE向偏转了约15°。2条陡直断层近乎垂直相交于近海,在构造应力作用下均以走滑错动为主。 相似文献
5.
Application of the time-predictable model in Peninsular India for future seismic hazard assessment 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
It has been the belief among Earth scientists that the Peninsular Shield is aseismic, as the region attained stability long
ago. However, the earthquake at Koyna (10 December 1967), Bhadrachalam (13 April 1969), Broach (23 March 1970), Hyderabad
(30 June 1983), Khillari (30 September 1993), Jabalpur (22 May 1997), Gujarat (26 January 2001), and additional ones of smaller
magnitudes, altered this concept. This area has experienced many widely distributed shallow earthquakes, some of them having
large magnitudes. It is now widely accepted that seismic activity still continues with moderate events. Therefore, a need
has arisen to take into consideration recent seismological data to assess the future seismic status of Peninsular India. Earthquake
generation model has been studied to develop the statistical relations with surface wave magnitude (M
S
≥ 4.5). Five seismogenic sources showing clustering of earthquakes and including at least three main shocks of magnitude
4.5 ≤ M
S
≤ 6.5 giving two repeat times, have been identified. It is mainly based on the so-called “regional time-predictable model”.
For the considered region it is observed that the time interval between two consecutive main shocks depends on the preceding
main shock magnitude (M
p
) not on the following main shocks magnitude M
f
suggesting the validity of time predictable model in the region. 相似文献
6.
ComprehensiveanalysesofseismicsourcelayerinXingtaiandTangshanseismicregionsandtheconditionsofmediaab
ＣｏｍｐｒｅｈｅｎｓｉｖｅａｎａｌｙｓｅｓｏｆｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｓｏｕｒｃｅｌａｙｅｒｉｎＸｉｎｇｔａｉａｎｄＴａｎｇｓｈａｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｅｇｉｏｎｓａｎｄｔｈｅｃｏｎｄｉｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｍｅｄｉａａｂｏｖｅａｎｄｂｅｌｏｗｔｈｉｓＬａｙｅｒＴＯＮＧ... 相似文献
7.
Ran Hong-liu 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(6):671-677
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake
events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns
along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution
for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson
and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability
of M
S≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.
Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Major Research “Research on Assessment of Seismic Safety” from
China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan. 相似文献
8.
Relation between the characteristics of strong earthquake activities in Chinese mainland and the Wenchuan earthquake 
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下载免费PDF全文 This paper studies the relations between the great Wenchuan earthquake and the active-quiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes, the rhythmic feature of great earthquakes, and the grouped spatial distribution of MS8.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. We also studied the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the stepwise migration characteristics of MS?≥7.0 earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt, the features of the energy releasing acceleration in the active crustal blocks related to the Wenchuan earthquake and the relation between the Wenchuan earthquake and the so called second-arc fault zone. The results can be summarized as follows: ① the occurrence of the Wenchuan earthquake was consistent with the activequiet periodic characteristics of strong earthquakes; ② its occurrence is consistent with the features of grouped occurrence of MS8.0 earthquakes and follows the 25 years rhythm (each circulation experiences the same time) of great earthquakes; ③ the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake follows the well known stepwise migration feature of strong earthquakes on the North-South seismic belt; ④ the location where the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake took place has an obvious consistency with the temporal and spatial characteristic of grouped activity of MS≥?7.0 strong earthquakes on the second-arc fault zone; ⑤ the second-arc fault zone is not only the lower boundary for earthquakes with more than 30 km focal depth, but also looks like a lower boundary for deep substance movement; and ⑥ there are obvious seismic accelerations nearby the Qaidam and Qiangtang active crustal blocks (the northern and southern neighbors of the Bayan Har active block, respectively), which agrees with the GPS observation data. 相似文献
9.
本文基于1970年以来的地震目录及四川地区4.0级以上地震的震源机制解资料,分析鲜水河断裂带分段(炉霍段、道符段、康定段、石棉段)的地震活动特征及研究区现代构造应力场,结合深部速度结构,探讨鲜水河断裂带上地震活动频度与龙门山断裂带地震活动的关系及康定地段6.3级地震的孕震环境。结果发现:(1)鲜水河断裂带北段和南段地震活动性存在差异,炉霍段和道孚段的地震活动频度1981年前要高于2000年后,康定段和石棉段的地震活动频度2000年以后高于1981年前;(2)分析地壳P波速度结构发现康定震区西侧川滇块体表现出低速异常,东侧表现出高速异常;(3)对构造应力场的分析结果表明龙门山断裂带主要以NW-SE向挤压为主,鲜水河断裂带构造应力场以NWW-SEE向为主。综合鲜水河断裂带应力场特征、深部速度结构、断层间的相互作用等信息推断,康定M6.3地震的发生与该地区应力积累及深部孕震环境相关,同时由于龙门山断裂带地震活动性影响,导致鲜水河断裂带康定段的能量释放。 相似文献
10.
Conclusions The sequence of the November 29, 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning, earthquake withM
S=5.4 is relocated, and its rupture process is analyzed. Results are as follows:
The rupture extended mainly before the January 12, 2000,M
S=5.1 earthquake. There are two phases of rupture extending: The first phase was before the November 29, 1999,M
S=5.4 earthquake, epicenters were situated within a small region with a dimension of about 5 km, and the focal depth increased.
It shows that the rupture mainly extended from shallow part to deep in the vertical direction. The second phase was between
theM
S=5.4 earthquake and theM
S=5.1 earthquake, earthquakes migrated along southeast, the focal depth decreased. It indicates that the rupture extended along
southeast and from deep to shallow part.
Foundation item: The Project of “Mechanism and Prediction of the Strong Continental Earthquake” (95-13-05-04).
Contribution No. 01FE2017, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau. 相似文献
11.
Fracture characteristics of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm inferred from source spectra 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
SHI-YONG ZHOU 《地震学报(英文版)》2000,13(2):125-135
Broadband P and S waves source spectra of 12 MS5.0 earthquakes of the 1997 Jiashi, Xinjiang, China, earthquake swarm recorded at 13 GDSN stations have been analyzed. Rupture size and static stress drop of these earthquakes have been estimated through measuring the corner frequency of the source spectra. Direction of rupture propagation of the earthquake faulting has also been inferred from the azimuthal variation of the corner frequency. The main results are as follows: ①The rupture size of MS6.0 strong earthquakes is in the range of 10～20 km, while that of MS=5.0～5.5 earthquakes is 6～10 km.② The static stress drop of the swarm earthquakes is rather low, being of the order of 0.1 MPa. This implies that the deformation release rate in the source region may be low. ③ Stress drop of the earthquakes appears to be proportional to their seismic moment, and also to be dependent on their focal mechanism. The stress drop of normal faulting earthquakes is usually lower than that of strike-slip type earthquakes. ④ For each MS6.0 earthquake there exists an apparent azimuthal variation of the corner frequencies. Azimuthally variation pattern of corner frequencies of different earthquakes shows that the source rupture pattern of the Jiashi earthquake swarm is complex and no uniform rupture expanding direction exists. 相似文献
12.
For earthquakes (ML≥2.0) that occurred from January 2006 to October 2018 around the MS5.7 Xingwen earthquake occurred on 16 December 2018 in Xingwen, Sichuan province, China, we statistically investigated the correlation between the phase of Earth's rotation and the occurrence of earthquakes via Schuster's test to determine the signals that triggered earthquakes before the MS5.7 Xingwen event. The results were evaluated based on the P-value where a smaller P-value corresponded to a higher correlation between the occurrence of an earthquake and Earth's rotation. We investigated the spatial distribution of P-values in the region around the epicenter of the MS5.7 Xingwen event, and obtained a result exhibiting a extremely low-P-value region. The MS5.7 event occurred inside near the northern boundary of this region. Furthermore, we analyzed the temporal evolution of P-values for earthquakes that occurred within the extremely low-P-value region and found that some extremely low P-values (less that 0.1%), i.e., significant correlation, were calculated for earthquakes that occurred before the MS5.7 Xingwen earthquake. Among sixty-one earthquakes with the lowest P-value, occurred from May 2014 to April 2018, a vast majority of them occurred during the acceleration of Earth's rotation. The lower P-value obtained in this study reveals that the Xingwen source body probably was extremely unstable prior to the occurrence of the MS5.7 Xingwen earthquake. 相似文献
13.
利用青藏高原东缘1999—2013年间多期GPS水平速率观测数据,基于多面函数拟合,计算球面坐标系下区域不同时期的面应变和最大剪应变,分析地应变的时空演化特征,结合不同时期发生的中强以上地震(MS6.0),研究期间大震分布与地应变时空演化特征的关系,主要结论如下:(1)青藏高原东缘面应变分布与地块有一定的对应关系,面应变的差异会在块体边界和内部形成不同的断层闭锁形式,与地震发生位置和震源机制有一定的关联;(2)区域最大剪应变的高值区对应于构造活动性较强的断裂带,这些断裂带鲜有地震发生;低值区对应于活动性较弱的断裂带,在区域地壳运动剧烈的背景下,在这些活动性相对较弱的断层上易形成应变能积累,因而会发生地震。区域绝大多数地震都发生在最大剪应变的低值区。 相似文献
14.
In this paper changes in focal mechanisms) parameters of wave spectra, and stress drops for the Ms=5.0 forcshock and Ms=6.0 mainshock in February 2001 in Yajiang County, Sichuan, and seismicity in cpiccntral region are studied. Comparison of focal mechanisms for the Yajiang earthquakes with distribution patterns of aftcrshocks, the nodal plane Ⅰ, striking in the direction of NEN, of the Yajiang M=5.0 event is chosen as the faulting plane, the nodal plane Ⅱ, striking in the direction of WNW, of the M=6.0 event as the faulting plane. The strikes of the two faulting planes are nearly perpendicular to each other. The level of stress drops in the cpicentral region before the occurrence of the M=6.0 earthquake increases, which is consistent with increase of seismicity in the epicentral region. The rate decay of the Yajiang earthquake sequence, changes in wave spectra for foreshocks and aftershocks,and focal mechanisms are complex. 相似文献
15.
A new modified magnitude scale M
S
(20R) is elaborated. It permits us to extend the teleseismic magnitude scale M
S
(20) to the regional epicenter distances. The data set used in this study contains digital records at 12 seismic stations
of 392 earthquakes that occured in the northwest Pacific Ocean in the period of 1993–2008. The new scale is based on amplitudes
of surface waves of a narrow range of the periods (16–25 s) close to the period of 20 s, for distances of 80–3000 km. The
digital Butterworth filter is used for processing. On the basis of the found regional features concerning distance dependence
for seismic wave attenuation, all the stations of the region have been subdivided into two groups, namely, “continental” and
“island-arc.” For each group of stations, its own calibration function is proposed. Individual station corrections are used
to compensate for the local features. 相似文献
16.
赵和云 《地震学报(英文版)》1994,7(3):465-474
ＴｈｅｐａｔｔｅｒｎｃｈａｒａｃｔｅｒｉｓｔｉｃｓｏｆｔｈｅｔｅｎｄｅｎｃｙｖａｒｉａｔｉｏｎｓｏｆｅａｒｔｈｒｅｓｉｓｔｉｖｉｔｙａｎｄｉｔｓｒｅｌａｔｉｏｎｔｏｅａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅｓＨｅ－ＹｕｎＺＨＡＯ（赵和云）（ＥａｒｔｈｑｕａｋｅＲｅｓｅａｒ... 相似文献
17.
4 Conclusions The preliminary result of this work was obtained in 1992. At Consulting Meeting for Seismic Trends of China in Jan. 1993,
we handed in a report and predicted that “Until now, the average magnitude curve
haven’t gotten risen again after a fall, and the value ofH is under 0.4, so no alarm is made by each of these two. We predicted that, seismicity of the Chinese mainland in 1993 may
be at the same level as in 1991–1992, or a little higher than it, but mustn’t be very high; this is to say that no earthquake
withM
s⩾7.2 will occur in the Chinese mainland in 1993.”
The real situation is: No earthquake withM
s⩾7.2 occurred in the Chinese mainland, and it shows that this real prediction is true.
To state succinctly: (1)In ths paper nonlinearR/S fractal method is applicated in earthquake prediction, and two algorithms RSH and RSHM are proposed. (2)R values of this two algorithms reached a notable value, and pass confidence test, so a certain efficiency is presented. But
RSHM is some better. (3) It is presented by the successful prediction example that there is a good prospect in predicting
with fractal method.
Contribution No. 95A0056, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China.
This study is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation. 相似文献
18.
根据场源不同可将地电场E分为大地电场ET和自然电场ESP。空间Sq电流系和固体潮一般被认为是大地电场ET的起源;自然电场ESP源于地下介质的物理化学作用,其局部性变化相对稳定。2013年南北地震带相继发生了芦山MS7.0地震（30.3°N,103.0°E）和岷县、漳县MS6.6地震（34.5°N,104.2°E）。两次地震周边约400 km范围内的地电场台站（成都、汉王）数据表明震前自然电场ESP出现明显的小幅度突跳或大幅度跃变,同时在时间上具有准同步性,其他地电场台站也有类似变化。基于大地电场岩体裂隙水（电荷）渗流（移动）模型,对两次地震周边自然电场ESP的变异机理进行探讨,尝试解析其物理过程。 相似文献
19.
In this paper, by means of the statistical analysis method of stochastic spatial point process, statistical analysis of spatial
distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region of China is made. Emphasis is on the test and analysis of the complete
spatial randomness, correlation of earthquake distribution in the different magnitude interval and random labeling. It is
shown by the analysis that the spatial distribution of earthquakes in the large northern region is “clustered”, the distributions
of earthquakes in different magnitude interval are positively correlated and can be modeled by a two-dimensional process.
The results obtained in the paper can be used for the establishment of a reasonable spatial distribution model and have some
application in the reasonable estimation of seismic hazard.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 129–135, 1993. 相似文献
20.
IntroductionMore than 30 years has passed since gravity method was used to Study the eanhquake prediction in China in later 1960s (In America, Germany, Japan and the former Soviet Union etC. it haspassed nearly half a century). In this 30 years the most remarkable success achieved are as follows.First, in the cognition aspect, the questions whether the gravity will change or not before earthquake and how much the magnitUde of change has been answered. TO the fial queStion, the answer is p… 相似文献