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1.
《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2018,42(15):1765-1784
In this paper a fully probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian statistical method is presented to predict ground settlements in both transverse and longitudinal directions during gradual excavation of a tunnel. To that end, the convergence confinement method is adopted to give estimates of ground deformation numerically. Together with in situ measurements of the evolution of vertical deflections at selected points along the tunnel line, it allows for the construction of a likelihood function and consequently in the framework of Bayesian inference to provide posterior improved knowledge of model parameters entering the numerical analysis. In this regard, the Bayesian updating is first exploited in the material identification step and next used to yield predictions of ground settlement in sections along the tunnel line ahead of the tunnel face. This methodology thus makes it possible to improve original designs by utilizing an increasing number of data (measurements) collected in the course of tunnel construction. 相似文献
2.
受工程勘察成本及试验场地限制,可获得的试验数据通常有限,基于有限的试验数据难以准确估计岩土参数统计特征和边坡可靠度。贝叶斯方法可以融合有限的场地信息降低对岩土参数不确定性的估计进而提高边坡可靠度水平。但是,目前的贝叶斯更新研究大多假定参数先验概率分布为正态、对数正态和均匀分布,似然函数为多维正态分布,这种做法的合理性有待进一步验证。总结了岩土工程贝叶斯分析常用的参数先验概率分布及似然函数模型,以一个不排水黏土边坡为例,采用自适应贝叶斯更新方法系统探讨了参数先验概率分布和似然函数对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新的影响。计算结果表明：参数先验概率分布对空间变异边坡参数后验概率分布推断及可靠度更新均有一定的影响,选用对数正态和极值I型分布作为先验概率分布推断的参数后验概率分布离散性较小。选用Beta分布和极值I型分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果分别偏于保守和危险,选用对数正态分布获得的边坡可靠度计算结果居中。相比之下,似然函数的影响更加显著。与其他类型似然函数相比,由多维联合正态分布构建的似然函数可在降低对岩土参数不确定性估计的同时,获得与场地信息更为吻合的计算结果。另外,构建似然函数时不同位置处测量误差之间的自相关性对边坡后验失效概率也具有一定的影响。 相似文献
3.
A methodology was presented for observation-based settlement prediction with consideration of the spatial correlation structure of soil. The spatial correlation is introduced among the settlement model parameters and the settlements at various points are spatially correlated through these geotechnical parameters, which naturally describe the phenomenon. The method is based on Bayesian estimation by considering both prior information, including spatial correlation and observed settlement, to search for the best estimates of the parameters at any arbitrary points on the ground. Within the Bayesian framework, the optimised selection of auto-correlation distance by Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is also proposed. The application of the proposed approach in consolidation settlement prediction using Asaoka's method is presented in this paper. Several case studies were carried out using simulated settlement data to investigate the performance the proposed approach. It is concluded that the accuracy of the settlement prediction can be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation structure and the proposed approach gives the rational prediction of the settlement at any location at any time with quantified uncertainty. 相似文献
4.
准确预测路堤沉降对于规避风险和减小成本至关重要。传统的仅基于场地勘察数据的路堤沉降预测方法的预测值常偏离监测值。提出了基于贝叶斯理论的多源信息融合方法进行路堤沉降预测,采用有限元法模拟多层土体的固结沉降,并结合高效的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟法更新土体参数得到高维后验分布。以新南威尔士州的Ballina地区试验路堤数据为例说明了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于贝叶斯理论的多源信息融合方法可以有效融合勘察和监测数据,通过多源数据融合能够较准确地预测路堤沉降。对于Ballina路堤,总体上随着监测数据量的增加,路堤沉降预测预测精度逐渐提高。使用0～116 d监测数据可以准确地预测地表沉降;基于0～496 d监测数据可同时准确预测所有监测点的沉降。对于Ballina路堤,先验信息对沉降预测具有一定影响,但观测误差对预测准度影响微弱。 相似文献
5.
分别开展砂土和粉质黏土两种典型土质条件下基坑悬臂式开挖离心模型试验,详细叙述试验过程中所要解决的关键问题,并提出合理的解决方案。通过对比分析两组试验结果,得到以下结论：非饱和土地基制备中参数控制困难,分层夯实法有待进一步改进,而砂雨法制备的砂土地基参数可控性更好;两组试验的结果有差异,砂土地基试验所呈现的土压力、地基变形、支护弯矩的变化规律更好,因此,岩土离心试验可适当考虑以砂土代替非饱和土;对于采用悬臂式支护结构的基坑,开挖引起的地表沉降曲线在砂土中呈指数型,而在粉质黏土中呈直线型;开挖引起的粉质黏土地基土体位移范围较砂土地基更大;开挖引起的砂土中挡墙弯矩较粉质黏土更大,砂土和粉质黏土中最大弯矩位置都随开挖逐渐下移;在砂土试验中开挖引起主动区土压力各处均减小,而在粉质黏土试验中开挖引起土压力在挡墙底有增大趋势。该基坑工程离心模型试验过程及数据处理方法可为进一步试验提供参考。 相似文献
6.
The cross-site variability (i.e., variability from site to site) makes the statistics of the bias factor of a design model vary from site to site. How to characterize the cross-site variability of the model bias factor is important for design of pile foundations based on site-specific load test data. In this study, a probabilistic model that allows for explicit modeling of the cross-site variability is suggested. An equation is derived based on Bayes’ theorem to calibrate the suggested model with load test data from different sites, which is applicable even when the number of load tests at each site is small. A procedure based on hybrid Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is employed to solve the Bayesian equation. How to update the statistics of the model bias factor, when applied to a future site, with site-specific load test data is also described. As an illustration, the probabilistic model is applied to the design of bored piles in Shanghai, China. It is found that, given a certain number of site-specific pile load tests, the effect of updating depends on the mean and the COV of the measured model bias factor. With the assistance of regional experience, a small number of load tests can significantly reduce the uncertainty associated with the design model, and further increase in the number of load tests may not change the site-specific statistics of the bias factor and hence the resistance factor substantially. 相似文献
7.
为可靠预测基坑周边地表沉降的发展趋势,提出了一种基于混合蛙跳算法和广义回归神经网络模型的基坑地表最大沉降预测模型（SFLA-GRNN模型）。首先,在沉降机制分析并初选输入变量集的基础上,利用灰色相关度分析对模型输入、输出变量的相关性进行量化,并剔除与输出变量相关性明显偏小的输入变量;其次,利用混合蛙跳算法（SFLA）对广义回归神经网络模型（GRNN）的平滑因子进行优化确定,减少人为因素对模型精度和泛化能力的不良影响;最后,利用筛选得到的输入变量集建立基坑地表最大沉降预测的广义回归神经网络模型。实例应用及对比计算结果表明,基于灰色相关度的输入变量筛选和基于混合蛙跳算法的平滑因子优化均能够有效提高广义回归神经网络模型的精度和泛化能力,以上结论可为类似变形预测提供参考。 相似文献
8.
地下水开采是导致地面不均匀沉降的重要因素之一,而地面不均匀沉降又会对桥梁结构造成较大的危害。通过离心模型试验研究了离心场中地基抽水对桥梁结构物的影响。在自主研制的离心场中地基抽水对结构物影响的模拟和测量系统基础上,测量了抽水过程中粉土地基中沉降的变化以及桥梁结构的变形分布规律,探讨了地面不均匀沉降对刚性桥梁、简支桥梁以及简支连续桥梁的影响规律。试验结果表明,水井抽水的初期非稳定渗流期是桥梁变形发展最快的阶段;减小桥垮长度以及桥面桥墩改用铰连接都可以使得桥面轴向应变减小;地基的水平位移会给刚性桥梁中部带来较大的变形 相似文献
9.
Accurate prediction of ground surface settlement is necessary for effectively controlling the settlement that develops during tunneling. Many models have been established for this purpose by extracting the relationship between the settlement and the factors that influence it. However, most of the models focused on the maximum ground surface settlement and do not involve dynamic and real-time predictions. This paper investigated how tunneling-induced ground surface settlement developed using a smooth relevance vector machine with a wavelet kernel (wsRVM). Various factors that affect this settlement, including geometrical, geological and shield operational parameters were considered. The model was applied to earth pressure balance (EPB) shield-driven tunnels. The results indicate that the prediction model performs well and that the distribution of the predictions can provide a measure of the prediction uncertainty. Unlike conventional methods that requireadditional efforts to determine relevant model parameters, the proposed method can optimize the parameters in the training process. The results of the parametric study conducted show that the model performance can be improved by the optimization and that the method can serve as a simple tool for practitioners to use in estimating ground surface settlement development during tunneling. 相似文献
10.
根据某一大型油罐软基加固处理工程方案设计和优选需要,按照离心模型相似律,开展了三组模型试验,分别模拟了天然地基、土工合成材料袋装碎石垫层和既在填土层中设置袋装碎石垫层又在淤泥质粘土层设置土工合成材料排水板三种情况,以研究这一加固布置形式对减小高压缩性软土层地基上油罐罐底的差异沉降效果反应。模型油罐地基采用原型土重塑制备,现场土工合成材料袋装碎石采用柔性机织玻璃纤维细管塞装粗砂条模拟,并在不停机运转条件下模拟了多次充放水预压加载。试验结果表明,油罐软弱地基经土工合成材料袋装碎石加固后,罐底总沉降值和差异沉降值均明显小于天然地基情形下对应的沉降值,罐底畸变得到显著减小,就本文所述的土质条件、土层厚度和预压荷载强度,地基经加固处理后,油罐罐底畸变减小了近50 %。最后就土工合成材料在加固油罐地基布置形式的合理性进行了初步探讨。 相似文献
11.
基坑开挖引起的地表沉降对周边建筑物的安全造成了一定的威胁,在已有大量实测数据分析的基础上,提出了一种新的数学函数模型,并结合模型函数性质提出了基于最大沉降量Smax和沉降范围r的沉降模型表达式,结合相关工程实例中的数据分析,证明该模型对基坑开挖引起的地表沉降规律有着较好的适用性,将该模型与其他类似的模型进行了对比.研究成果可为相关基坑工程开挖引起的地表沉降的预测和控制提供参考. 相似文献
12.
软土基坑开挖引起的坑外地表沉降预测数值分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
通过对基坑开挖过程的有限元数值模拟可知,当围护结构发生正向、反向转动及挠曲等3种基本变形模式时,坑外地表沉降分布具有较为明显的规律,均可采用统一格式的指数曲线进行模拟,即可得到坑外地表沉降曲线的经验公式。利用正向、反向转动及挠曲等3种基本变形模式对围护结构的任意变形模式进行拟合,求得3种基本模式的最大位移值,然后根据3种基本模式所对应的坑外地表沉降经验公式,求得每一基本模式所对应的坑外地表沉降分量,并进行叠加,从而求得坑外地表沉降分布曲线。 相似文献
13.
在膨胀土地基中进行隧道对群桩影响的三维离心模型试验研究,目标地层损失比为2%,着重研究引起的地基沉降槽、桩的附加沉降、附加弯矩、轴力的变化规律。试验得出：隧道开挖沉降槽空间效应明显;隧道开挖从-0.75D至1.25D时,桩附加沉降呈线性增长,隧道开挖至1.25D以后,桩依然沉降明显。前桩与后桩沉降值不同,桩帽会出现倾斜;前桩上部出现负附加弯矩而下部出现正附加弯矩,而后桩仅在下部出现正附加弯矩;前桩附加弯矩最大值出现在隧道轴线附近,且比后桩附加弯矩大得多;前桩附加轴力随着隧道的开挖而增加,且每步最大值在隧道轴线附近。后桩的轴力也随隧道的开挖而增加,但每步最大值出现在桩顶附近。 相似文献
14.
Some studies suggest that creep parameters should be determined using a greater quantity of creep test data to provide more reliable prediction regarding the deformation of soft soils. This study aims to investigate the effect of loading duration on model updating. One‐dimensional consolidation data of intact Vanttila clay under different loading durations collected from the literature is used for demonstration. The Bayesian probabilistic method is used to identify all unknown parameters based on the consolidation data during the entire consolidation process, and their uncertainty can be quantified through the obtained posterior probability density functions. Additionally, the optimal models are also determined from among 9 model candidates. The analyses indicate that the optimal models can describe the creep behavior of intact soft soils under different loading durations, and the adopted method can evaluate the effect of loading duration on uncertainty in the creep analysis. The uncertainty of a specific model and its model parameters decreases as more creep data are involved in the updating process, and the updated models that use more creep data can better capture the deformation behavior of an intact sample. The proposed method can provide quantified uncertainty in the process of model updating and assist engineers to decide whether the creep test data are sufficient for the creep analysis. 相似文献
15.
软土流变性对深基坑周围地表沉降的影响分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在实测资料和前人研究的基础上,分析了软土地区深基坑围护结构水平位移值和墙后地表沉降的变化规律。对围护结构水平位移进行二次曲线拟合,假设地表沉降曲线形态可用正态分布密度函数来描述,利用地层损失法计算各工况下墙后最大地表沉降,并与各工况下实测最大地表沉降比较,提出了软土流变性对地表沉降规律的滞后影响。 相似文献
16.
岩土工程现场勘察试验通常只能获得有限的试验数据,据此难以真实地量化土体参数的空间变异性。提出了考虑土体参数空间变异性的概率反演和边坡可靠度更新方法,基于室内和现场两种不同来源的试验数据概率反演空间变异参数统计特征和更新边坡可靠度水平,并给出了计算流程。此外为合理地描述土体参数先验信息,发展了不排水抗剪强度非平稳随机场模型。最后通过不排水饱和黏土边坡算例验证了提出方法的有效性,并探讨了试验数据和钻孔位置对边坡后验失效概率的影响。结果表明：提出方法实现了空间变异土体参数概率反演与边坡可靠度更新的一体化,基于有限的多源试验数据概率反演得到的土体参数均值与试验数据非常吻合,明显降低了对参数不确定性的估计,更新的边坡可靠度水平显著增加。受土体参数空间自相关性的影响,试验数据对钻孔取样点附近区域土体参数统计特征更新的影响明显大于距离取样点较远区域。 相似文献
17.
以某黄土公路隧道工程为依托,借助现场测试方法研究浅埋洞口段黄土公路隧道地表沉降、拱顶下沉和周边收敛时态分布规律,并结合实测数据建立隧道施工变形统计分析预测模型。研究结果表明:（1）黄土隧道施工变形呈现显著的时间和空间效应,其时态分布曲线符合指数函数型发展规律;（2）地表沉降随时间呈增长趋势,约60 d后逐渐趋于稳定,其最大值（wmax）的统计变化范围为（?30.78～?105.20）mm;（3）横向地表沉降曲线分布呈凹槽形,沉降槽宽度约（3～5）倍隧道跨度（B）,且隧道开挖引起的地层损失率为0.74%～3.08%;（4）拱顶下沉与周边收敛时态曲线可分为线性增长、持续变形和平稳发展3个阶段,且线性增长阶段占总变形量的60%以上;（5）vmax的统计值变化范围为（?17.1～?201.1）mm,其95%置信区间为[?51.53,?65.11],umax的统计值变化范围为（?12.1～?122.0）mm,其95%置信区间为[?35.08,?43.39],建议V级围岩黄土隧道预留变形量取值范围为（?100～?150）mm;（6）拱顶下沉与周边收敛速率时态曲线呈先急剧增加后逐渐衰减趋势,最终稳定后的拱顶下沉速率（Δv）和周边收敛速率（Δu）依次为（?0.05～?0.80）mm/d和（?0.02～?0.60）mm/d。 相似文献
18.
Occurrence of liquefaction in saturated sand deposits underlying foundation of structure can cause a wide range of structural damages starting from minor settlement, and ending to general failure due to loss of bearing capacity. If the bearing capacity failure is not the problem, reliable estimation of the liquefaction-induced settlement will be of prime importance in assessment of the overall performance of the structure. Currently, there are few procedures with limited application in practice for estimation of settlement of foundations on liquefied ground. Therefore, development of a general relationship is important from the practical viewpoint. In this paper, the dynamic response of shallow foundations on liquefied soils is studied using a 3D fully coupled dynamic analysis. For verification of the numerical model, simulation of a centrifuge experiment is carried out and the analysis results are compared with the experimental measurements. The results of centrifuge experiment are taken from the literature for the purpose of comparison and the experiment has not been performed by the authors. After verification of the numerical model, a practical relationship for estimation of liquefaction-induced settlement of rigid footings on homogeneous loose to medium fine sand is proposed based on the results of a comprehensive parametric study. In the interpretation process, the soil layer thickness in which the liquefaction takes place is found to be a key parameter, since by normalization with respect to this parameter, effects of a number of other parameters can be eliminated. 相似文献
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20.
It is known that a lot of uncertainties are involved in geotechnical design of energy piles. In this paper, a Bayesian updating framework is presented to characterize those uncertainties. The load-transfer model is developed to predict the thermomechanical response of energy piles. Considering the cross-case variability of the uncertainty in the axial strains of pile, the global model bias is firstly calibrated by establishing a comprehensive database consisting of 12 energy pile cases. Furthermore, the uncertainty in input parameters is considered in the Bayesian updating of model bias in a specific case. The variability of the uncertain parameters is effectively reduced after updating. The coefficient of variation of prediction is decreased from 0.34 to 0.13. The present framework can well quantify uncertain factors and improve the accuracy and reliability of the prediction model.
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