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2.
Pritpal Singh Bhogeswar Borah 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(7):1585-1599
Forecasting the monsoon temporally is a major scientific issue in the field of monsoon meteorology. The ensemble of statistics and mathematics has increased the accuracy of forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) up to some extent. But due to the nonlinear nature of ISMR, its forecasting accuracy is still below the satisfactory level. Mathematical and statistical models require complex computing power. Therefore, many researchers have paid attention to apply artificial neural network in ISMR forecasting. In this study, we have used feed-forward back-propagation neural network algorithm for ISMR forecasting. Based on this algorithm, we have proposed the five neural network architectures designated as BP1, BP2, $\ldots, $ … , BP5 using three layers of neurons (one input layer, one hidden layer and one output layer). Detail architecture of the neural networks is provided in this article. Time series data set of ISMR is obtained from Pathasarathy et al. (Theor Appl Climatol 49:217–224 1994) (1871–1994) and IITM (http://www.tropmet.res.in/, 2012) (1995–2010) for the period 1871–2010, for the months of June, July, August and September individually, and for the monsoon season (sum of June, July, August and September). The data set is trained and tested separately for each of the neural network architecture, viz., BP1–BP5. The forecasted results obtained for the training and testing data are then compared with existing model. Results clearly exhibit superiority of our model over the considered existing model. The seasonal rainfall values over India for next 5 years have also been predicted. 相似文献
3.
It is well recognized that the time series of hydrologic variables, such as rainfall and streamflow are significantly influenced by various large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The influence of El Niño‐southern oscillation (ENSO) on hydrologic variables, through hydroclimatic teleconnection, is recognized throughout the world. Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) has been proved to be significantly influenced by ENSO. Recently, it was established that the relationship between ISMR and ENSO is modulated by the influence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean region. The influences of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode and equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) on ISMR have been established in recent research. Thus, for the Indian subcontinent, hydrologic time series are significantly influenced by ENSO along with EQUINOO. Though the influence of these large‐scale atmospheric circulations on large‐scale rainfall patterns was investigated, their influence on basin‐scale stream‐flow is yet to be investigated. In this paper, information of ENSO from the tropical Pacific Ocean and EQUINOO from the tropical Indian Ocean is used in terms of their corresponding indices for stream‐flow forecasting of the Mahanadi River in the state of Orissa, India. To model the complex non‐linear relationship between basin‐scale stream‐flow and such large‐scale atmospheric circulation information, artificial neural network (ANN) methodology has been opted for the present study. Efficient optimization of ANN architecture is obtained by using an evolutionary optimizer based on a genetic algorithm. This study proves that use of such large‐scale atmospheric circulation information potentially improves the performance of monthly basin‐scale stream‐flow prediction which, in turn, helps in better management of water resources. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
The relationships between a number of the main characteristic parameters of the cycle—amplitude, half-width, and growth phase duration—and the approximation parameters, which make it possible to estimate the average behavior of 11-year activity, have been derived based on the obtained analytical representations of the regularities in the solar activity variations during the cycle. Quasibiennial variations proceeding against a background of the cycle are distinctly associated with the solar magnetic field structure and the structure representation variations in the corona and in the flux of the solar neutrino radiation. This makes it possible to state that all these processes are parts of the common physical mechanism of solar variability. 相似文献
5.
D. Altadill 《Annales Geophysicae》1996,14(7):716-724
The presence and persistence of an 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionospheric electron density variations were studied. The data of lower ionosphere (radio-wave absorption at equivalent frequency near 1 MHz), middle and upper ionosphere (critical frequencies f0E and f0F2) for the period 1970–1990 have been used in the analysis. Also, solar and geomagnetic activity data (the sunspot numbers Rz and solar radio flux F10.7 cm, and aN index respectively) were used to compare the time variations of the ionospheric with the solar and geomagnetic activity data. Periodogram, complex demodulation, auto- and cross-correlation analysis have been used. It was found that 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation exists and persists in the temporal variations of the ionospheric parameters under study with high level of correlation and mean period of 18–19 days. The time variation of the amplitude of the 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionosphere seems to be modulated by the long-term solar cycle variations. Such oscillations exist in some solar and geomagnetic parameters and in the planetary wave activity of the middle atmosphere. The high similarities in the amplitude modulation, long-term amplitude variation, period range between the oscillation of investigated parameters and the global activity of oscillation suggests a possible solar influence on the 18-day quasi-periodic oscillation in the ionosphere. 相似文献
6.
HONG Yetang LIU Dongsheng JIANG Hongbo ZHOU Liping J.Beer HONG Bing ZHU Yongxuan LI Handing LENG Xuetian QIN Xiaoguang WANG Yu LIN Qinghua ZENG Yiqiang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2000,43(2)
There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity.A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported.Results show that during the past 5000 years the abrupt climate variations,including 17 warming and 17 cooling,and a serious of periodicities,such as 86,101,110,127,132,140,155,207,245,311,820 and 1050 years,are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity.These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries. 相似文献
7.
V. A. Dergachev S. S. Vasiliev O. M. Raspopov H. Jungner 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2012,52(8):959-976
Recent studies have shown that, in addition to the role of solar variability, past climate changes may have been connected with variations in the Earth??s magnetic field elements at various timescales. An analysis of variations in geomagnetic field elements, such as field intensity, reversals, and excursions, allowed us to establish a link between climate changes at various timescales over the last millennia. Of particular interest are sharp changes in the geomagnetic field intensity and short reversals of the magnetic poles (excursions). The beginning and termination of the examined geomagnetic excursions can be attributed to periods of climate change. In this study, we analyzed the possible link between short-term geomagnetic variability (jerks) and climate change, as well as the accelerated drift of the north magnetic pole and surface temperature variations. The results do not rule out the possibility that geomagnetic field variations which modulate the cosmic ray flux could have played a major role in climate change in addition to previously induced by solar radiation. 相似文献
8.
I. V. Kudryavtsev V. A. Dergachev A. I. Kuleshova Yu. A. Nagovitsyn M. G. Ogurtsov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2016,56(8):998-1005
Data on variations in the content of the 14C cosmogenic isotope in tree rings and the Earth’s atmosphere (Δ14C) make it possible to study the behavior of solar activity (SA) in previous centuries and millenniums. The latter is related to the fact that SA temporal variations result in a change in the IMF (Interplanetary Magnetic Field) parameters and, as a consequence, in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux, under the action of which the 14C isotope is produced in the Earth’s atmosphere. This makes it possible to study SA history based on data on the 14C isotope content in tree rings. However, in this case we have several difficulties related to climate change. Climate changes result in carbon redistribution between natural reservoirs, which is reflected in radiocarbon data and results in solar signal distortion. The effect of variations in the global temperature and carbon dioxide concentration on the reconstruction of the heliospheric modulation potential and Wolf numbers from the late 14th century to the early 19th century is considered. It has been shown that the radiocarbon data do not make it possible to conclude that SA during the Maunder minimum was extremely low as compared to SA during the Dalton minimum. 相似文献
9.
A. V. Belov B. D. Shelting R. T. Gushchina V. N. Obridko A. F. Kharshiladze V. G. Yanke 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2001,63(18)
The paper deals with the relation of long-term variations of 10 GV galactic cosmic rays (GCR) to the global solar magnetic field and solar wind parameters. This study continues previous works, where the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) and other solar-heliospheric parameters are successfully used to describe long-term variations of cosmic rays in the past two solar cycles. The novelty of the present work is the use of the HCS tilt and other parameters reconstructed from Hα observations of filaments for the period when direct global solar magnetic field observations were unavailable. Thus, we could extend the GCR simulation interval back to 1953. The analysis of data for 1953–1999 revealed a good correlation (the correlation coefficient >0.88) between the solar-heliospheric parameters and GCR in different cycles of solar activity. Moreover, the approach applied makes it possible to describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of solar maxima, which could not be done before. This indicates both the adequacy of the model and the reliability of the reconstructed global solar magnetic field parameters. 相似文献
10.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract Is it possible to make seasonal and interannual forecasts of hydrological variables if one cannot predict next week’s rainfall? Contrary to common view, some scientists support the hypothesis that variations in mean global temperature and precipitation are controlled more by external forcing (solar variability and volcanic eruptions) than by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Temperature and precipitation are connected with special phases of the 11-year sunspot cycle, which coincide with significant accumulation of energetic solar eruptions. Because of the possibility of identifying years with many solar eruptions, the attractive prospect emerges of the long-term hydrological forecasting based on cycles of solar activity. Starting from this assumption, an expert system was built based on a fuzzy neural network model for seasonal and interannual forecasting of the Po River discharge. It was found that indices of solar activity and of global circulation are sufficient to yield useful forecasts of hydrological variables. 相似文献
11.
Yetang Hong Dongsheng Liu Hongbo Jiang Liping Zhou J. Beer Bing Hong Yongxuan Zhu Handing Li Xuetian Leng Xiaoguang Qin Wang Yu Qinghua Lin Yiqiang Zeng 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2000,43(2):217-224
There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar
activity. A continuous δ18O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record
to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming
and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years,
are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further
evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries. 相似文献
12.
R. T. Gushchina A. V. Belov E. A. Eroshenko V. N. Obridko E. Paouris B. D. Shelting 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2014,54(4):430-436
Recent years allowed us to study long-term variations in the cosmic ray (CR) intensity at an unusually deep solar activity (SA) minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and during the SA growth phase in cycle 24, which was the cycle when SA was the lowest for the epoch of regular ground-based CR observations since 1951. The intensity maximum, the value of which depends on the particle energy, was observed in CR variations during the period of an unusually prolonged SA minimum: the CR density during the aformentioned period (2009) is higher than this density at previous CR maxima in cycles 19–23 for low-energy particles (observed on spacecraft and in the stratosphere) and medium-energy particles (observed with neutron monitors). After 2009 CR modulation at the SA growth phase was much weaker over three years (2010–2012) than during the corresponding SA growth periods in the previous cycles. The possible causes of this anomaly in CR variations, which are related to the CR residual modulation value at a minimum between cycles 23 and 24 and to variations in SA characteristics during this period, were examined. The contribution of different solar magnetic field characteristics and indices, taking into account sporadic solar activity, has been estimated. 相似文献
13.
地磁活动是太阳爆发现象引起地球近地空间磁场扰动的重要空间天气过程之一.地球磁场的变化具有多种时间尺度,其中从数十年到数世纪的长时间地磁场变化主要是由地核磁场引起的,而从数秒到数年的短时间地磁变化与太阳活动有关.近年来,越来越多的统计研究表明,地磁活动与太阳活动和地球气候变化之间存在着显著的相关性.地球磁场和地球大气系统的耦合现象驱动着人们探索地磁活动对地球天气和气候系统影响的研究.本文的目的就是综述国内外地磁变化对气候影响的研究进展,介绍我们最新的研究成果,探索地磁活动对气候要素的影响特征和可能机理过程,为深入研究地磁活动对地球天气和气候的影响提供基础和依据,以期对地磁活动和气候要素关系有进一步的认识. 相似文献
14.
Ultra low frequency (ULF) wave activity in the high-latitude ionosphere has been observed by a high frequency (HF) Doppler sounder located at Tromsø, Norway (69.71°N, 19.2°E geographic coordinates). A statistical study of the occurrence of these waves has been undertaken from data collected between 1979 and 1984. The diurnal, seasonal, solar cycle and geomagnetic activity variations in occurrence have been investigated. The findings demonstrate that the ability of the sounder to detect ULF wave signatures maximises at the equinoxes and that there is a peak in occurrence in the morning sector. The occurrence rate is fairly insensitive to changes associated with the solar cycle but increases with the level of geomagnetic activity. As a result, it has been possible to characterise the way in which prevailing ionospheric and magnetospheric conditions affect such observations of ULF waves. 相似文献
15.
Comparative evaluation of performances of two versions of NCEP climate forecast system in predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Nachiketa Acharya Makarand A. Kulkarni Uma C. Mohanty Ankita Singh 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(1):199-219
The operational prediction of climatic variables in monthly-to-seasonal scales has been issued by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) through Climate Forecast System model (CFSv1) since 2004. After incorporating significant changes, a new version of this model (CFSv2) was released in 2011. The present study is based on the comparative evaluation of performances of CFSv2 and CFSv1 for the southwest monsoon season (June-July-August-September, JJAS) over India with May initial condition during 1982–2009. It was observed that CFSv2 has improved over CFSv1 in simulating the observed monsoon rainfall climatology and inter annual variability. The movement of the cell of Walker circulation in years of excessive and deficient rainfall is better captured in CFSv2, as well. The observed teleconnection pattern between ISMR-sea surface temperature (SST) is also better captured in CFSv2. The overall results suggest that the changes incorporated in CFSv1 through the development of CFSv2 have resulted in an improved prediction of ISMR.21 相似文献
16.
《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2003,65(4):469-482
Solar radiation (both total and in various wavelengths) varies at different time scales—from seconds to decades or centuries—as a consequence of solar activity. The energy received from the Sun is one of the natural driving forces of the Earth's atmosphere and since this energy is not constant, it has been argued that there must be some non-zero climate response to it. This response must be fully specified in order to improve our understanding of the climate system and the impact of anthropogenic activities on it. However, despite all the efforts, if and how subtle variations of solar radiation affect climate and weather still remains an unsolved puzzle. One key element that is very often taken as evidence of a response, is the similarity of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different meteorological parameters. The literature contains a long history of positive or negative correlations between weather and climate parameters like temperature, rainfall, droughts, etc. and solar activity cycles like the 27-day cycle, the prominent 11-year sunspot cycle, the 22-year Hale cycle and the Gleissberg cycle of 80–90 years. A review of these different cycles is provided as well as some of the correlative analyses between them and several stratospheric parameters (like stratospheric geopotential heights, temperature and ozone concentration) and tropospheric parameters (like temperature, rainfall, water level in lakes and river flooding, clouds) that point to a relationship of some kind. However, the suspicion on these relationships will remain as long as an indisputable physical mechanism, which might act to produce these correlations, is not available. 相似文献
17.
A. V. Mordvinov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2010,50(8):933-936
A comparative analysis of measurements of total solar flux in the active cavity radiometer irradiance monitor (ACRIM) and
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD) scales was performed. An analysis of integrated differences of simultaneous
measurements of solar flux made it possible to estimate the systematic differences that can lead to the accumulation large
errors with time. The measurements of solar flux in ACRIM and PMOD scales were reduced to an intermediate radiometric scale
through data correction for systematic errors. The corrected measurements in the unified scale were consistent and there is
a compromise between initial data sets. The measurements in the intermediate scale indicate changes in solar flux between
the minima of solar activity in 1986, 1996, and 2008. The amplitude of these variations is comparable with uncertainty in
their long-term trends, which questions earlier obtained estimates for secular variations of solar luminosity. 相似文献
18.
Hiroko Miyahara Kentaro Nagaya Kimiaki Masuda Yasushi Muraki Hiroyuki Kitagawa Toshio Nakamura 《Quaternary Geochronology》2008,3(3):208-212
In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating. 相似文献
19.
I. N. Myagkova M. I. Panasyuk Yu. I. Denisov V. V. Kalegayev A. V. Bogomolov V. O. Barinova D. A. Parunakyan L. I. Starostin 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2011,51(7):897-901
The study of variations in the electron flux in the outer Earth radiation belt (ERB) and their correlations with solar processes
is one of the important problems in the experiment with the Electron-M-Peska instrument onboard the CORONAS-Photon solar observatory.
Data on relativistic and subrelativistic electron fluxes obtained by the Electron-M-Peska in 2009 have been used to study
the outer ERB dynamics at the solar minimum. Increases in outer ERB relativistic electron fluxes, observed at an height of
550 km after weak magnetic disturbances induced by high-velocity solar wind arriving to the Earth, have been analyzed. The
geomagnetic disturbances induced by the high-velocity solar wind and that resulted in electron flux variations were insignificant:
there were no considerable storms and substorms during that period; however, several polar ground-based stations observed
an increase in wave activity. An assumption has been made that the wave activity caused the variations in relativistic electron
fluxes. 相似文献
20.
赤道电离异常（Equatorial Ionization Anomaly,EIA）是低纬电离层中的一个重要现象.本文基于IGS台网提供的2001—2008年期间的电离层总电子含量（Total Electron Content,TEC）数据,分析了120°E区的EIA强度和磁南北半球不对称性在磁平静时期的变化特征,包括对地方时、季节和太阳活动的依赖.本文结果表明,（1） EIA强度表现出显著的随地方时和季节的变化特征.EIA强度在0200LT和2000LT附近分别出现一个极值,且2000LT附近的EIA强度更大;EIA强度通常在春/秋季较大,在夏/冬季较小,且冬季要大于夏季.（2） EIA南北半球不对称也表现出随地方时和季节变化特征.EIA半球不对称在0200LT和2000-2200LT附近分别出现一个极值;EIA半球不对称的季节变化特征还依赖于太阳活动,太阳活动高年期间,EIA半球不对称通常在春/秋季更显著;太阳活动低年期间,EIA半球不对称通常在冬季更显著.（3） EIA强度和半球不对称性的逐日变化和月变化表现出对太阳活动存在一定的依赖,但依赖性并不显著.2000LT （0200LT）附近的EIA强度的月变化与太阳活动整体呈正（负）相关,而2200LT （0200LT）附近的EIA半球不对称的月变化与太阳活动整体呈负（负）相关.（4）影响EIA强度变化的主要因素可归于纬圈电场和中性风场;影响EIA半球不对称变化的主要因素可归因为子午中性风场. 相似文献