共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 375 毫秒
1.
利用三年夏季系留气艇探测结果,分析了北京夏季夜间低空急流的一般特征.30％的夜间观测记录出现了低空急流.急流平均高度为200 m,其最大频率出现在140 m左右,90％急流出现在320 m以下.W、SW、SE是夜间低空急流的主要风向.不同观测地点低空急流在速度、风向和高度上存在明显差异.城区低空急流高度大部分时间比郊区高.个例分析表明,在夜间稳定边界层条件下,低空急流与局地山谷风环流强弱变化有很好相关.进一步成因分析认为,斜坡地形产生的热成风、山谷风环流可能是北京夏季夜间低空急流形成的主要原因. 相似文献
2.
Mesospheric observations were obtained by the EISCAT UHF and VHF radars during the solar proton event of March 1990. We present the first comparison of incoherent-scatter spectral measurements from the middle mesosphere using simultaneous, co-located observations by the two radars. VHF spectra observed with a vertical antenna were found to be significantly narrower than model predictions, in agreement with earlier UHF results. For antenna pointing directions that were significantly away from the vertical, the wider VHF radar beam gave rise to broadening of the observed spectra due to vertical shears in the horizontal wind. In this configuration, UHF spectral measurements were found to be more suitable for aeronomical applications. Both radar systems provide consistent and reliable estimates of the neutral wind. Spectral results using both the multipulse and pulse-to-pulse schemes were intercompared and their suitability for application to combined mesosphere - lower thermosphere studies investigated. 相似文献
3.
S. Janicot 《Annales Geophysicae》1997,15(4):471-475
Empirical studies have shown that warm El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes are associated during northern summer with, first, a southward location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic, and, second, a weakened convection over West Africa where the ITCZ is near its mean latitude. A modelling experiment presented here is used to help explain this apparent contradiction. In simulated ENSO conditions, the ITCZ is located southwards over the tropical Atlantic. Over West Africa the intertropical front is also displaced southwards, but more slightly; the ITCZ is located at its climatological latitude and the vertical development of convective clouds over West and Central Africa is reduced due to dynamical subsidence in the upper levels. 相似文献
4.
The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(6):833-846
Sediment transport has been extensively studied. There is still a need to learn more about the mechanisms that make bed particles move, which is caused by turbulent flow in the low transport stages (above the motion threshold and below continuous transport). This work is focused on the use of an advanced tool to obtain a better perception of sediment transport dynamical methods: an instrumented particle equipped with a micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) sensor. Particle transport experiments were carried out in a laboratory flume under a variety of well-controlled above-the-threshold-of-motion flow conditions. By using sensor data, the kinetic energies were calculated with different flow rates and particle densities (mimicking different types of sediments sizes) to generate the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of particle transport features, like the total kinetic energy of particles, which provided information about particle interaction with the bed surface during its motion. The energy transfer efficiency was also studied, which can link the rate of energy transferred from the flow to the particle transport, so it can determine how efficiently a flow can transfer energy to the particle and how it affects the magnitude of sediment transport. In general, the instrumented particle response by a series of experiments showed consistent and satisfactory results and demonstrated its capability to record inertial dynamics because of flow turbulence at low cost. These experiments used different particle sizes and densities than those found in real-world sediments because of sensor size and lab limitations. They do, however, provide a framework and trends that others can use to do more research into bed load transport rates in built canals and natural rivers. 相似文献
6.
Using the improved CCM1 dynamic climate model, the impact of abnormal heat source and sink over the Tibetan Plateau in winter on the abnormal zonal wind over the Pacific Ocean is studied in this paper. The following new-findings are obtained: (1) When the at mospheric cold source during January—March on the Tibetan Plateau gets intensified, an abnormal anticyclone around the Tibetan Plateau will appear in lower troposphere. Abnormal northerly wind at the coastal area of the mainland of China and an abnormal cyclone will appear on the West Pacific in the following months. Then, abnormal west wind will appear over the equator of the West Pacific and extends to the East Pacific. (2) When the atmospheric cold source during January—March over the Tibetan Plateau is unusually weak, an abnormal cyclone around the Tibetan Plateau will appear at lower levels first, then abnormal anticyclone will appear on the West Pacific and move to the south and result in abnormal easterly wind over the equator of the West Pacific, which will extend to the east. Furthermore, abnormal changes of zonal wind on equatorial Indian Ocean can be caused by the intensity change of atmospheric cold source in winter and early spring over the Tibetan Plateau.
相似文献7.
HAPEX-Sahel: a large-scale study of land-atmosphere interactions in the semi-arid tropics 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
J.-P. Goutorbe T. Lebel A. Tinga P. Bessemoulin J. Brouwer A. J. Dolman E. T. Engman J. H. C. Gash M. Hoepffner P. Kabat Y. H. Kerr B. Monteny S. Prince F. Said P. Sellers J. S. Wallace 《Annales Geophysicae》1994,12(1):53-64
The Hydrologic Atmospheric Pilot EXperiment in the Sahel (HAPEX-Sahel) was carried out in Niger, West Africa, during 1991 - 1992, with an intensive observation period (IOP) in August - October 1992. It aims at improving the parameterization of land surface atmosphere interactions at the Global Circulation Model (GCM) gridbox scale. The experiment combines remote sensing and ground based measurements with hydrological and meteorological modelling to develop aggregation techniques for use in large scale estimates of the hydrological and meteorological behaviour of large areas in the Sahel. The experimental strategy consisted of a period of intensive measurements during the transition period of the rainy to the dry season, backed up by a series of long term measurements in a 1^ by 1^ square in Niger. Three “supersites” were instrumented with a variety of hydrological and (micro) meteorological equipment to provide detailed information on the surface energy exchange at the local scale. Boundary layer measurements and aircraft measurements were used to provide information at scales of 100 - 500 km2. All relevant remote sensing images were obtained for this period. This programme of measurements is now being analyzed and an extensive modelling programme is under way to aggregate the information at all scales up to the GCM grid box scale. The experimental strategy and some preliminary results of the IOP are described. 相似文献
8.
John E. Stout 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(10):1195-1207
A basic feature of any wind‐eroding surface is its threshold – the wind speed at which sediment transport is initiated. A new method was developed and tested that allows for the rapid determination of threshold under natural wind conditions in the ?eld. A mathematical expression that relates saltation activity and relative wind strength was reformulated so that threshold may be calculated from measurements of saltation activity and the mean and standard deviation of wind speed. To test the new method and determine its usefulness, a ?eld experiment was performed within a region of low‐relief dunes on the Southern High Plains of West Texas. The experimental system consisted of a 2‐m meteorological tower and a piezoelectric saltation sensor. It was found that during periods of active aeolian activity, threshold values could be calculated every 5 minutes. This new method allows for routine monitoring of surface threshold conditions in the ?eld. Example threshold calculations are presented and they demonstrate that the method works well. Published in 2004 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
The relationship between electric fields, height-integrated conductivities and electric currents in the high-latitude nightside electrojet region is known to be complex. The tristatic nature of the EISCAT UHF radar facility provides an excellent means of exploring this interrelationship as it enables simultaneous estimates to be made of the full electric field vector and the ionospheric Hall and Pedersen conductances, further allowing the determination of both field-perpendicular electric current components. Over 1300 h of common programme observations by the UHF radar system provide the basis of a statistical study of electric fields, conductances and currents in the high-latitude ionosphere, from which preliminary results are presented. Times at which there is significant solar contribution to the ionospheric conductances have been excluded by limiting the observations according to solar zenith angle. Initial results indicate that, in general, the times of peak conductance, identified from the entire set of EISCAT observations, do not correspond to the times of the largest electric field values; the relative contribution of ionospheric conductance and electric field to the electrojet currents therefore depends critically on local time, a conclusion which corroborates work by previous authors. Simultaneous measurements confirm a tendency for a decrease in both Hall and Pedersen conductances to be accompanied by an increase in the electric field, at least for moderate and large electric field value, a tendency which is also identified to some extent in the ratio of the conductances, which acts as an indicator of the energy of precipitating particles. 相似文献
10.
Sea breezes are characteristic features of coastal regions that can extend large distances from the coastline. Oscillations close to the inertial period are thought to account for around half the kinetic energy in the global surface ocean and play an important role in mixing. In the vicinity of 30°N/S, through a resonance between the diurnal and inertial frequencies, diurnal winds could force enhanced anti-cyclonic rotary motions that contribute to near-inertial energy.Observations of strong diurnal anti-cyclonic currents in water of depth 175 m off the Namibian coastline at 28.6°S are analysed over the annual cycle. Maxima in the diurnal anti-cyclonic current and wind stress amplitudes appear to be observed during the austral summer. Both the diurnal anti-cyclonic current and wind stress components have approximately constant phase throughout the year. These observations provide further evidence that these diurnal currents may be wind forced. Realistic General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) 1-D simulations of diurnal wind forcing, including the first order coast-normal surface slope response to diurnal wind forcing, represent the principal features of the observed diurnal anti-cyclonic current but do not replicate the observed vertical diurnal current structure accurately. Cross-shelf 2-D slice simulations suggest that the first order surface slope response approximation applies away from the coast (>140 km). However, nearer to the coast, additional surface slope variations associated with spatial variations in the simulated velocity field (estimated from Bernoulli theory) appear to be significant and also result in transfer of energy to higher harmonics. Evidence from 3-D simulations at similar latitude in the northern hemisphere suggests that 3-D variations, including propagating near-inertial waves, may also need to be considered. 相似文献
11.
Detailed model calculations of auroral secondary and photoelectron distributions for varying conditions have been used to calculate the theoretical enhancement of incoherent scatter plasma lines. These calculations are compared with EISCAT UHF radar measurements of enhanced plasma lines from both the E and F regions, and published EISCAT VHP radar measurements. The agreement between the calculated and observed plasma line enhancements is good. The enhancement from the superthermal distribution can explain even the very strong enhancements observed in the auroral E region during aurora, as previously shown by Kirk-wood et al. The model calculations are used to predict the range of conditions when enhanced plasma lines will be seen with the existing high-latitude incoherent scatter radars, including the new EISCAT Svalbard radar. It is found that the detailed structure, i.e. the gradients in the suprathermal distribution, are most important for the plasma line enhancement. The level of superthermal flux affects the enhancement only in the region of low phase energy where the number of thermal electrons is comparable to the number of suprathermal electrons and in the region of high phase energy where the suprathermal fluxes fall to such low levels that their effect becomes small compared to the collision term. To facilitate the use of the predictions for the different radars, the expected signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for typical plasma line enhancements have been calculated. It is found that the high-frequency radars (Søndre Strømfjord, EISCAT UHF) should observe the highest SNR, but only for rather high plasma frequencies. The VHP radars (EISCAT VHP and Svalbard) will detect enhanced plasma lines over a wider range of frequencies, but with lower SNR. 相似文献
12.
Joël Arnault Benjamin Fersch Thomas Rummler Zhenyu Zhang Gandome Mayeul Quenum Jianhui Wei Maximilian Graf Patrick Laux Harald Kunstmann 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14183
It is well accepted that summer precipitation can be altered by soil moisture condition. Coupled land surface – atmospheric models have been routinely used to quantify soil moisture – precipitation feedback processes. However, most of the land surface models (LSMs) assume a vertical soil water transport and neglect lateral terrestrial water flow at the surface and in the subsurface, which potentially reduces the realism of the simulated soil moisture – precipitation feedback. In this study, the contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to summer precipitation is assessed in two different climatic regions, Europe and West Africa, for the period June–September 2008. A version of the coupled atmospheric-hydrological model WRF-Hydro with an option to tag and trace land surface evaporation in the modelled atmosphere, named WRF-Hydro-tag, is employed. An ensemble of 30 simulations with terrestrial routing and 30 simulations without terrestrial routing is generated with random realizations of turbulent energy with the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme, for both Europe and West Africa. The ensemble size allows to extract random noise from continental-scale averaged modelled precipitation. It is found that lateral terrestrial water flow increases the relative contribution of land surface evaporation to precipitation by 3.6% in Europe and 5.6% in West Africa, which enhances a positive soil moisture – precipitation feedback and generates more uncertainty in modelled precipitation, as diagnosed by a slight increase in normalized ensemble spread. This study demonstrates the small but non-negligible contribution of lateral terrestrial water flow to precipitation at continental scale. 相似文献
13.
Wei Shen Klaus-Werner Gurgel George Voulgaris Thomas Schlick Detlef Stammer 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(1):105-121
Land-based high-frequency (HF) radars have the unique capability of continuously monitoring ocean surface environments at
ranges up to 200 km off the coast. They provide reliable data on ocean surface currents and under slightly stricter conditions
can also give information on ocean waves. Although extraction of wind direction is possible, estimation of wind speed poses
a challenge. Existing methods estimate wind speed indirectly from the radar derived ocean wave spectrum, which is estimated
from the second-order sidebands of the radar Doppler spectrum. The latter is extracted at shorter ranges compared with the
first-order signal, thus limiting the method to short distances. Given this limitation, we explore the possibility of deriving
wind speed from radar first-order backscatter signal. Two new methods are developed and presented that explore the relationship
between wind speed and wave generation at the Bragg frequency matching that of the radar. One of the methods utilizes the
absolute energy level of the radar first-order peaks while the second method uses the directional spreading of the wind generated
waves at the Bragg frequency. For both methods, artificial neural network analysis is performed to derive the interdependence
of the relevant parameters with wind speed. The first method is suitable for application only at single locations where in
situ data are available and the network has been trained for while the second method can also be used outside of the training
location on any point within the radar coverage area. Both methods require two or more radar sites and information on the
radio beam direction. The methods are verified with data collected in Fedje, Norway, and the Ligurian Sea, Italy using beam
forming HF WEllen RAdar (WERA) systems operated at 27.68 and 12.5 MHz, respectively. The results show that application of
either method requires wind speeds above a minimum value (lower limit). This limit is radar frequency dependent and is 2.5
and 4.0 m/s for 27.68 and 12.5 MHz, respectively. In addition, an upper limit is identified which is caused by wave energy
saturation at the Bragg wave frequency. Estimation of this limit took place through an evaluation of a year long database
of ocean spectra generated by a numerical model (third generation WAM). It was found to be at 9.0 and 11.0 m/s for 27.68 and
12.5 MHz, respectively. Above this saturation limit, conventional second-order methods have to be applied, which at this range
of wind speed no longer suffer from low signal-to-noise ratios. For use in operational systems, a hybrid of first- and second-order
methods is recommended. 相似文献
14.
Prakash Mehra Michael N. Tsimplis R. G. Prabhudesai Antony Joseph Andrew G. P. Shaw Y. K. Somayajulu Paolo Cipollini 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(4):819-833
The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period
2007–2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well
as oceanographic data. Multilinear regression analysis is used to resolve the dependence of sea level on various forcing parameters.
The multilinear regression analysis performed over approx. 2-year data shows that the local surface meteorological data and
water temperature account for the sea level variability only up to 6%. The accounted sea level variability increases to 25%,
when the local wind and the surface currents obtained from satellite altimetry in the near vicinity of the study area are
incorporated in the regression analysis. The contribution of local wind increases substantially when the regression is performed
over a 2-month duration, and it is variable within the year. During the summer monsoon season (May–September), the sea level
variability attributable to wind is up to 47% and 75%, respectively, for 2007 and 2008; however, it reduces to <20% during
the winter monsoon (November–February) season. A significant part of the variability observed in sea level remains unaccounted
for and is attributed to remote forcing. 相似文献
15.
Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques to predict the level of wind power and the associated variability are critical. Ideally, one would like to obtain reliable probability density forecasts for the wind power distributions. We aim at contributing to the literature of wind power prediction by developing and analysing a spatio-temporal methodology for wind power production, that is tested on wind power data from Denmark. We use anisotropic spatio-temporal correlation models to account for the propagation of weather fronts, and a transformed latent Gaussian field model to accommodate the probability masses that occur in wind power distribution due to chains of zeros. We apply the model to generate multi-step ahead probability predictions for wind power generated at both locations where wind farms already exist but also to nearby locations. 相似文献
16.
夏季平流层盛行强东风,Rossby波能量难以从对流层向上传播至平流层,而冬季平流层盛行西风,Rossby波能量容易上传,因此以往对Rossby波能量向平流层传播的研究多考虑冬季的情况.而事实上,因为夏季高原上空南亚高压反气旋环流,并非只有强东风存在,所以Rossby波能量也可能在南亚高压区向上传播,从而影响平流层的温度、风场及大气成分等.因此,本文利用ERA-interim逐日再分析资料,分析了1979—2015年夏季南亚高压区Rossby波能量穿越对流层顶传播的特征与机制.结果表明:Rossby波能量可以从南亚高压西北部的窗口区上传至平流层,最高可到达平流层顶,而在南亚高压的其他部分,Rossby波能量均不能穿越对流层顶上传或穿越对流层顶后无法继续上传.南亚高压西北区Rossby波能量可以穿越对流层顶传播的原因是盛行西风,且西风急流出现的频率很小,同时涡动热量通量异常引起的垂直分量的第一项对其上传有很大贡献.南亚高压东北区也盛行西风,然而Rossby波能量不能向上穿越对流层顶的原因是强西风出现频率较高,且温度脊与高度脊位相相近,不利于上传.南亚高压南部均盛行东风,在平流层中下层均为稳定层结,因此Rossby波能量很难上传.南亚高压西南区在对流层位于青藏高原环流的伊朗高原下沉区附近,层结稳定,并且温度脊超前于高度脊,所以Rossby波能量很难上传.而南亚高压东南区在对流层位于南海-西太平洋热带幅合带,层结不稳定,存在Rossby波能量较弱的上传,达到对流层顶后无法继续上传,该区域温度脊落后于高度脊的温压场配置也为Rossby波能量在对流层内的传播提供了条件. 相似文献
17.
Wind erosion is an important soil erosion and hence a soil degradation problem in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. Potentially, the characteristic dryland vegetation with scattered trees and shrubs can provide for soil erosion protection from wind erosion, but so far adequate quantification of vegetation impacts is lacking. The aim of this study was to develop a model of wind‐blown soil erosion and sediment transport around a single shrub‐type vegetation element. Starting with the selection of a suitable transport equation from four possible sediment transport equations, the effects of a single vegetation element on wind speed were parameterized. The modified wind speed was then applied to a sediment transport equation to model the change in sediment mass flux around a shrub. The model was tested with field data on wind speed and sediment transport measured around isolated shrubs in a farmer's field in the north of Burkina Faso. The simple empirical equation of Radok (Journal of Glaciology 19 : 123–129, 1977) performed best in modelling soil erosion and sediment transport, both for the entire event duration and for each minute within an event. Universal values for the empirical constants in the sediment transport equation could not be obtained because of the large variability in soil and roughness characteristics. The pattern of wind speed, soil erosion and sediment transport behind a shrub and on either side of it was modelled. The wind speed changed in the lee of the vegetation element depending on its porosity, height and downwind position. Wind speed was recovered to the upstream speed at a downwind distance of 7·5 times the height of the shrub. The variability in wind direction created a ‘rotating’ area of influence around the shrub. Compared to field measurements the model predicted an 8% larger reduction in sediment transport in the lee of the vegetation element, and a 22% larger increase beside the vegetation element. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
There is little geochonological data on sedimentation in dambos (seasonally saturated, channel-less valley floors) found throughout Central and Southern Africa. Radiocarbon dating is problematic for dambos due to (i) oxidation of organic materials during dry seasons; and (ii) the potential for contemporary biological contamination of near-surface sediments. However, for luminescence dating the equatorial site and semi-arid climate facilitate grain bleaching, while the gentle terrain ensures shallow water columns, low turbidity, and relatively long surface exposures for transported grains prior to deposition and burial. For this study, we focused on dating sandy strata (indicative of high-energy fluvial events) at various positions and depths within a second-order dambo in central Uganda. Blue-light quartz optically stimulated luminescences (OSL) ages were compared with infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) and thermoluminescence (TL) ages from finer grains in the same sample. A total of 8 samples were dated, with 6 intervals obtained at 35, 33, 16, 10.4, 8.4, and 5.9 ka. In general, luminescence ages were stratigraphically, geomorphically and ordinally consistent and most blue-light OSL ages could be correlated with well-dated climatic events registered either in Greenland ice cores or Lake Victoria sediments. Based upon OSL age correlations, we theorize that extreme fluvial dambo events occur primarily during relatively wet periods, often preceding humid-to-arid transitions. The optical ages reported in this study provide the first detailed chronology of dambo sedimentation, and we anticipate that further dambo work could provide a wealth of information on the paleohydrology of Central and Southern Africa. 相似文献
19.
Multivariate Prediction of Total Water Storage Changes Over West Africa from Multi-Satellite Data 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Ehsan Forootan Jürgen Kusche Ina Loth Wolf-Dieter Schuh Annette Eicker Joseph Awange Laurent Longuevergne Bernd Diekkrüger Michael Schmidt C. K. Shum 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(4):913-940
West African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources of the region, for instance, reduced freshwater availability. Assessing and predicting large-scale total water storage (TWS) variations are necessary for West Africa, due to its environmental, social, and economical impacts. Hydrological models, however, may perform poorly over West Africa due to data scarcity. This study describes a new statistical, data-driven approach for predicting West African TWS changes from (past) gravity data obtained from the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE), and (concurrent) rainfall data from the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) and sea surface temperature (SST) data over the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. The proposed method, therefore, capitalizes on the availability of remotely sensed observations for predicting monthly TWS, a quantity which is hard to observe in the field but important for measuring regional energy balance, as well as for agricultural, and water resource management. Major teleconnections within these data sets were identified using independent component analysis and linked via low-degree autoregressive models to build a predictive framework. After a learning phase of 72 months, our approach predicted TWS from rainfall and SST data alone that fitted to the observed GRACE-TWS better than that from a global hydrological model. Our results indicated a fit of 79 % and 67 % for the first-year prediction of the two dominant annual and inter-annual modes of TWS variations. This fit reduces to 62 % and 57 % for the second year of projection. The proposed approach, therefore, represents strong potential to predict the TWS over West Africa up to 2 years. It also has the potential to bridge the present GRACE data gaps of 1 month about each 162 days as well as a—hopefully—limited gap between GRACE and the GRACE follow-on mission over West Africa. The method presented could also be used to generate a near-real-time GRACE forecast over the regions that exhibit strong teleconnections. 相似文献
20.
A. Belehaki H. Mavromichalaki D. V. Sarafopoulos E. T. Sarris 《Annales Geophysicae》1995,13(5):494-504
The relative importance of the two most likely modes of input energy dissipation during the substorm of 8 May 1986, with an onset at 12:15 UT (CDAW 9E event), is examined here. The combination of data from the interplanetary medium, the magnetotail and the ground allowed us, first of all, to establish the sequence of phenomena which compose this substorm. In order to calculate the magnetospheric energetics we have improved the Akasofu model, by adding two more terms for the total magnetospheric output energy. The first one represents the energy consumed for the substorm current wedge transformation, supplied by the asymmetric ring current. This was found to be 39% of the solar wind energy entering the magnetosphere from the start of the growth phase up to the end of the expansion phase. The second term represents the energy stored in the tail or returned to the solar wind. Our results suggest that the substorm leaves the magnetosphere in a lower energy state, since, according to our calculations, 23% of the energy that entered the magnetosphere during the whole disturbance was returned back to the solar wind. Finally, it is interesting to note that during the growth phase the driven system grow considerably, consuming 36% of the solar wind energy which entered the magnetosphere during this early phase of the substorm. 相似文献