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1.
Turkey has been divided into eight different seismic regions taking into consideration the tectonic environments and epicenters
of the earthquakes to examine relationships of the modal values (a/b), the expected maximum magnitudes (Mmax) and the maximum intensities (Imax). For this purpose, the earthquakes for the time period 1900–1992 from the Global Hypocenter Data Base CD-ROM prepared by
USGS, and for the time period 1993–2001 from the PDE data and IRIS data are used. Concerning the relationships developed between
different magnitude scales and between surface wave magnitudes (MS) and intensity for different source regions in Turkey, we have constructed a uniform catalog of MS. We have estimated the values of Mmax and Imax using the Gumbel III asymptotic distribution. Highest a-values are observed in the Aegean region and the lowest b-values are estimated for the North Anatolian Fault. Maximum values of a/b, Mmax and Imax are related to the eastern and western part of the North Anatolian Fault and the Aegean Arc. The lowest values of all parameters
are observed near the Mid Anatolian Fault system. Linear relationships have been calculated between a/b, Mmax and Imax using orthogonal regression. If one of the three parameters is computed, two other parameters can be calculated empirically
using these linear relationships. Hazard maps of Mmax and Imax values are produced using these relationships for a grid of equally spaced points at 1°. It is observed that the maps produced
empirically may be used as a measure of seismic hazard in Turkey. 相似文献
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In the present paper, the parameters affecting the uncertainties on the estimation of M max have been investigated by exploring different methodologies being used in the analysis of seismicity catalogue and estimation of seismicity parameters. A critical issue to be addressed before any scientific analysis is to assess the quality, consistency, and homogeneity of the data. The empirical relationships between different magnitude scales have been used for conversions for homogenization of seismicity catalogues to be used for further seismic hazard assessment studies. An endeavour has been made to quantify the uncertainties due to magnitude conversions and the seismic hazard parameters are then estimated using different methods to consider the epistemic uncertainty in the process. The study area chosen is around Delhi. The b value and the magnitude of completeness for the four seismogenic sources considered around Delhi varied more than 40% using the three catalogues compiled based on different magnitude conversion relationships. The effect of the uncertainties has been then shown on the estimation of M max and the probabilities of occurrence of different magnitudes. It has been emphasized to consider the uncertainties and their quantification to carry out seismic hazard assessment and in turn the seismic microzonation. 相似文献
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《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2013,8(1):35-47
The need to revise the current Indonesian Seismic Hazard Map contained in Indonesian Earthquake Resistant Building Code SNI 03-1726-2002 which partially adopts the concept of UBC 1997, was driven among others by the desire to better reflect the potential larger earthquake disasters faced by the nation in the future. The much larger than maximum predicted Aceh Earthquake (M w 9.0–9.3) of 2004, followed by the destruction observed during the 2005 Nias Earthquake (M w 8.7) urgently underline to need to consider the new conceptual approach and technological shift shown in the transition of UBC 1997 to IBC 2006. This paper presents research works for developing spectral hazard maps for Indonesia. Some improvements in seismic hazard analysis were implemented using recent seismic records. Seismic sources were modeled by background, fault, and subduction zones by considering a truncated exponential model, pure characteristic model or both models. A logic tree method was performed to account for the epistemic uncertainty and several attenuation functions were selected. Maps of PGA and spectral accelerations for a short period (0.2 s) and for a 1-s period were then developed using a probabilistic approach. The maps will be proposed as a revision for the current seismic hazard map in the Indonesian Seismic Building Code. 相似文献
6.
Seismic hazard of Egypt 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M
max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas. 相似文献
7.
We investigate spatial clustering of 2414 aftershocks along the Izmit Mw = 7.4 August 17, 1999 earthquake rupture zone. 25 days prior to the Düzce earthquake Mw = 7.2 (November 12, 1999), we analyze two spatial clusters, namely Sakarya (SC) and Karadere–Düzce (KDC). We determine the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b-value) for both clusters. We find two high b-value zones in SC and one high b-value zone in KDC which are in agreement with large coseismic surface displacements along the Izmit rupture. The b-values are significantly lower at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture where the Düzce mainshock occurred. These low b-values at depth are correlated with low postseismic slip rate and positive Coloumb stress change along KDC. Since low b-values are hypothesized with high stress levels, we propose that at the depth of the Düzce hypocenter (12.5 km), earthquakes are triggered at higher stresses compared to shallower crustal earthquake. The decrease in b-value from the Karadere segment towards the Düzce Basin supports this low b-value high stress hypothesis at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture. Consequently, we detect three asperity regions which are correlated with high b-value zones along the Izmit rupture. According to aftershock distribution the half of the Düzce fault segment was active before the 12 November 1999 Düzce mainshock. This part is correlated with low b-values which mean high stress concentration in the Düzce Basin. This high density aftershock activity presumably helped to trigger the Düzce event (Mw = 7.2) after the Izmit Mw 7.4 mainshock. 相似文献
8.
The problem of assessing seismic hazard in low-seismicity areas becomes obvious in many practical applications. A typical low-seismicity area, which experienced damaging earthquakes in historical times, is the North German Plain, for which a case study is presented. It is shown how seismic hazard assessments are influenced by different interpretations of historical key earthquakes, changes in b-value as well as variations of the upper bound magnitude assumed for the seismic source regions. The latter strongly influences the hazard results in the case of very low b-values for long return periods. 相似文献
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A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M
L
6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra. 相似文献
11.
Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered. 相似文献
12.
Eid Al-Tarazi 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(1-2):79-96
The earthquake hazard in Jordan and its vicinity is assessed on the basis of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, an updated earthquake catalog is compiled which covers the period between AD 1–1989. The earthquakes lie between latitudes 27.0°-35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°-39.0° E. Thirteen seismic zones are defined on a regional seismic and tectonic map presented for the area. Point-source and line-source models are used. The seismic hazard parameters, namely, theb-parameter (of the Gutenberg-Richter relation),m
1 (the upper bound magnitude), and 4 (the annual rate of occurrence of earthquakes with local magnitudeM
L
4.0) are calculated for each zone. The results of the seismic hazard assessment are displayed as iso-acceleration contours expected to be exceeded during typical economic life times of structures, i.e. 50 and 100 years. For each model, two seismic hazard maps are derived. In order to determine the importance of the South-eastern Mediterranean zone and the north part of the Red Sea zone from a seismic hazard point of view for Jordan, one seismic hazard map which corresponds to 50 years' economic life for every model, excluding the seismicity of these zones, is derived. 相似文献
13.
Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D c-values in both the tectonic regions.
相似文献14.
Assuming a relation of “b” to stress state, the possibility of globe-wide stress variation and transmission was investigated. The NOAA earthquake data file served to determine the temporal change in “b” of log N = a − bM from 1963 to 1975.Periods of six to eight years are observed in the b-values (stress pattern) for most circum-Pacific areas (South America, Tonga, Kermadec, New Hebrides, Kamchatka and Eastern Aleutians).In the Kurils, fore- and aftershock sequences of large earthquakes seem to mask any characteristic global pattern that might exist. These sequences exhibit low b-values (high stress) through the time of foreshocks and early stages of aftershocks, followed by rapid increase in b-values (decrease in stress).Use of a worldwide earthquake data file clearly yields less resolution of the temporal “b” variation than the use of local network studies published by other authors.Incidental to the study, 1124 earthquakes of the NOAA data file yield the Ms − mb relations: Ms = 1.16mb − 0.835 for 4.5 mb 6 and: log10Ms = 0.1432mb − 0.0629 formb > 6 with correlative coefficients of 0.994 and 0.992 respectively. 相似文献
15.
Maximum magnitude of earthquakes Mmax expected in any distinct area is considered a consequence of both the tectonic features and the properties of the medium. An experimental problem was solved for the Caucasus where relationships were established between Mmax and a complex of geological conditions for the “standard” areas well known both geologically and seismologically. The solution is a formula connecting Mmax values with contributions of ten tectonic parameters expressed in terms of non-linear, monotonously increasing functions of amounts or rates of corresponding geological properties and processes.A map of calculated values of Mmax based on the solution was compiled for the Caucasus as a result of spreading the relationships established from the standard areas over the entire region. Prognostic values of Mmax were calculated and a similar map was also constructed for the Carpathian region.The detailed pattern of these maps and good coincidence of the calculated values of Mmax with registered magnitudes of earthquakes in the Carpathian region make it possible to regard the method presented in the paper as a possibility for constructing a geological basis of seismic zoning. 相似文献
16.
S.K. Guha 《Tectonophysics》1979,52(1-4)
There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( Vp, Vs) and their ratio (Vp/Vs), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations. 相似文献
17.
The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used. 相似文献
18.
Valry Ferber Jean-Claude Auriol Yu-Jun Cui Jean-Pierre Magnan 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):200-210
We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆmax, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an MS-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆmax,RP6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics. 相似文献
19.
The extraregional seismotectonic method for prognosis estimation of seismic potential (M
max) is presented. Information on the recent structure and state of the Earth's crust is used as the initial data for performing the seismotectonic analysis. The Earth's crust typification is performed applying computer procedures of cluster analysis for the territory of the major part of Europe of the adjacent aquatories and Central Asia. Application of the method results in an essential improvement of the prediction of the site and strength of expected earthquakes within seismically active territories and also makes possible the estimation of the seismic potential of weakly active regions from the same methodological standpoint. 相似文献
20.
D. Lange J. Cembrano A. Rietbrock C. Haberland T. Dahm K. Bataille 《Tectonophysics》2008,455(1-4):14-24
A temporal seismic network recorded local seismicity along a 130 km long segment of the transpressional dextral strike-slip Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ) in southern Chile. Seventy five shallow crustal events with magnitudes up to Mw 3.8 and depths shallower than 25 km were observed in an 11-month period mainly occurring in different clusters. Those clusters are spatially related to the LOFZ, to the volcanoes Chaitén, Michinmahuida and Corcovado, and to active faulting on secondary faults. Further activity along the LOFZ is indicated by individual events located in direct vicinity of the surface expression of the LOFZ. Focal mechanisms were calculated using deviatoric moment tensor inversion of body wave amplitude spectra which mostly yield strike-slip mechanisms indicating a NE–SW direction of the P-axis for the LOFZ at this latitude. The seismic activity reveals the present-day activity of the fault zone. The recent Mw 6.2 event near Puerto Aysén, Southern Chile at 45.4°S on April 21, 2007 shows that the LOFZ is also capable of producing large magnitude earthquakes and therefore imposing significant seismic hazard to this region. 相似文献