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1.
海浪波高序列的长期相关性及自仿射结构   总被引:19,自引:1,他引:19  
本文用尺度重整分析法对渤海实测海浪波高序列进行了分析,发现波高序列满足H=0.65的Hurst律.由此得到结论:海浪波高并非相互独立的随机序列,而是具有长期相关性的随机序列.应用分形几何对波高序列的分析表明,波高序列的长期相关性在几何上有下述重要的结论:波高序列的离均累积值X(t)具有统计自仿射的几何相似结构,且其分维数D=2-H=1.35.  相似文献   

2.
根据海浪波高序列的长期相关性和自仿射分形结构,本文提出了两种新的波高序列模式:Cauchy统计模式和分式统计模式.前者将实测的有限个波高值作为Cauchy初始条件,应用自仿射定理对波高序列今后的取值在统计意义上作出预报;后者适用于在计算机上模拟海浪波高的统计特性.应用实测资料对模式的检验结果表明,上述两种模式在预报和模拟海浪波高序列时均能达到较高的精度;它们为海洋工程设计人员提供了有力的手段.  相似文献   

3.
Jason-2卫星高度计的有效波高(Hs)产品在海洋学领域得到了广泛应用。为了综合评估Jason-2有效波高产品在中国多个海域和不同海况下的准确性,为其在中国海域的应用研究提供参考,本文基于国家海洋局20个水文气象浮标从2008年至2014年的长期观测数据,对Jason-2有效波高产品在中国三个海区(渤黄海、东海、南海)和不同海况(观测有效波高Hs最大为6.2m)下的准确性进行综合分析,并研究其准确性与离岸距离的关系。结果表明Jason-2有效波高产品:(1)在中国海域具有较好的准确性,均方根误差RMSE=0.445m;(2)在南海的准确性最高,而在渤黄海的准确性较差;(3)在2m≤Hs≤5m的海况条件下准确性较好;(4)在越远离陆地的海域准确性越高。  相似文献   

4.
本文利用小麦岛、千里岩、大陈三个海洋水文站长期观测的波高资料和太阳黑子相对数进行了周期图、相关系数的计算和分析,研究了年极位波高的长期振动。结果表明,年极值波高有各种长期波动,尤以11~12年和22年左右的波动周期为显著。这种波动周期与太阳黑子相对数平均11.2年周期和太阳活动磁周期(即所谓的海尔周期)相当一致。同时指出,在选取某一段年权值波高序列来确定设计波高时,所选取的率极值波高序列年限长度,至少不应小于其长期波动周期的年限。就本文三站资料分析结果来看,至少不小于23年为宜。  相似文献   

5.
海杂波具有非线性、非平稳和时变特性,多重分形测度分析是对物理系统局部奇异性的一个完整描述。本文根据海杂波电磁散射的经典模型——随机游走模型,利用随机微分理论对海杂波的物理特性进行了系统地建模分析。建立了描述海杂波电磁散射时变特性的随机微分方程,利用Itô公式得到了海杂波散射信号幅度和相位的扩散过程模型,并利用多重分形谱分析了该模型的奇异性。为了验证其准确性,与加拿大McMaster大学IPIX雷达实测海杂波数据的多重分形谱进行对比,实验结果表明两者完全一致,从而表明基于随机游走的随机微分模型是描述海杂波动力学机理的有效算法。  相似文献   

6.
以台湾海峡之国光钻油平台上新竹海气象浮标的有效波高为分析对象,通过移转机率矩阵建立马尔可夫链波高相关性模式,研究结果显示,利用马尔可夫链相关性模式推估之波高的不确定程度低于传统回归相关分析所得,而波高之估算误差受当时海况影响,在恶劣的海况下,本文模式之推估误差低于20%。  相似文献   

7.
最大熵原理应用于海浪波高分布的研究   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
利用最大熵原理从理论上推导出波高的最大熵分布,在此基础上研究了状态参量对波高分布和波高熵的影响。影响最大熵分布的因子是平均波高和状态参量,不同海况对应的状态参量是不同的。利用波高实测资料,得出3种不同海况下的最大熵分布,通过比较发现最大熵分布很好地符合实测数据。把最大熵分布与目前广泛应用的瑞利分布作了比较,结果表明,最大熵分布有2个优点:没有对波高作出任何限制性假定和能够描述不同海况下的波高分布。  相似文献   

8.
时空窗口的选择是卫星高度计有效波高产品检验的主要影响因素。采用Monte Carlo(MC)数学模拟的方法 ,研究了时空窗口对HY-2高度计有效波高检验的影响,并采用现场浮标测量数据验证了MC模拟的可靠性。MC模拟结果表明,采用浮标测量数据对HY-2高度计有效波高检验时,必须分海况选取对应的最优空间窗口进行,并给出不同海况下的最优的时空窗口。对于高海况需采用小的空间窗口,在1 m,2 m,3 m,4 m有效波高的海况下,其理想的时空窗口为0 min,117 km,30 km,18 km和13 km。  相似文献   

9.
首先用有限单元法推导海洋输液立管在外界环境荷载条件下的侧向振动微分方程。对渤海某海区的15次风暴过程作了抽样分析,得到以波高为主时的波高、流速序列和以流速为主时的波高、流速序列,并对其进行了Weibull、Gumbel、Lognormal等适线分析,以确定各序列的最优分布形式及相应的特征值。用重点抽样法进行随机模拟得到联合概率为百年一遇的波高的流速。针对线海固定式平台铰接的海洋输液立管,以最大应力为控制条件确定其联合设计标准,并与其它方法作了比较,得到一些有益的结论。  相似文献   

10.
利用X波段雷达提取海浪信息的分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用X波段雷达海浪信息提取系统,通过对龙口屺姆岛海域岸基试验数据分析,获得了有效波高、主波频率、主波波向等海况参数,并和该区域的浮标数据进行了比较分析,结果表明利用X波段雷达系统能够有效地获得海况信息。  相似文献   

11.
This study sets out to define the basic forms in which wind speed and wave height persistence statistics may be defined for offshore engineering applications, and describes the development of a mathematical persistence model.The model incorporates some of the principles laid down by other workers, but it is fundamentally based on a new concept for parameterising persistence statistics, linking wind speed and sea state percentage probability of exceedance with the persistence average duration.North Sea measured wind and wave data have been used to calibrate and test the model. During the course of these test runs it proved necessary to fine tune the basic Weibull equation of the model, but following these adjustments the model runs were found to correlate well with the measured data.It is concluded that the model may be used to predict wind speed and wave height persistence statistics with acceptable accuracy for preliminary stage oil industry planning purposes and that the calibrated model has particular application for those areas where little measured data are currently available.  相似文献   

12.
Results are summarized of an investigation concerned with the development and validation of a method for estimating persistence statistics from cumulative probability distributions. Primary attention has been devoted to estimations of wave height persistence and the motivation has been the requirement to provide estimates of persistence statistics as an additional output for the wave climate synthesis programme called NMIMET which can provide data on a worldwide basis. The opportunity has also been taken to adapt the methods developed for application to estimation of wind speed persistence.A method due to Graham is taken as the starting point and is modified in the light of detailed examination of a number of measured data sets. The method thus derived is shown to be more reliable and much simpler to apply than Graham's method and to give results in good agreement with a range of measured data sets for both exceedance and non exceedance. The measured data used for validation include 2 sets in areas remote from the sites in UK waters used for most of the development. A comparison is also included between persistence statistics estimated using NMIMET output of wave height probabilities from visual wave data and results from measured data.  相似文献   

13.
INTRODUCTIONDuring the 1960s, Bjerknes (1966, 1969) first noted that there had been strong relationshipbetween the tropical Pacific SST and atmospheric circulation. SST anomaly could affect tropicalatmospheric circulation by the Walker Circulation, and affect extratropical atmospheric circulationby the Hadley Circulation. When there was a "warm" event in the eastern tropical Pacific, ascending and sinking branch of the Hadley Circulation would strengthen, subtropical highs (SHs)and …  相似文献   

14.
南北半球副热带高压对赤道东太平洋海温变化的响应   总被引:16,自引:0,他引:16  
本文利用1974年1月到1996年12月重分析(NOAANCEP-NCARCDAS-1)全球500hPa位势高度场资料,及同期赤道太平洋各海区SST资料,研究了南北半球副热带高压的变化特征及其对赤道东太平洋SST变化的响应。结果表明,全球副热带高压的变化及对SST的响应,在南北两个半球有很好的一致性。全球副热带高压强度的变化与超前3个月SST的正相关最为显着。对SST响应最强烈的区域主要在南北纬30°之间的低纬,低纬地区局地SST对副热带高压也有强烈的影响。从10°到30°纬度,对SST的响应分别落后于赤道2~9个月。在中、高纬大气环流的响应表现为波列特征,对暖SST及冷SST的响应波列基本相反,但对暖SST的响应更为显着。海温和副热带高压的月际持续性有明显的季节变化,副热带高压9-10月的相关障碍可能与NinoC区SST8-9月的相关障碍低点有关。  相似文献   

15.
This paper generalises the application of univariate models of the long-term time series of significant wave height to the case of the bivariate series of significant wave height and mean period. A brief review of the basic features of multivariate autoregressive models is presented, and then applications are made to the wave time series of Figueira da Foz, in Portugal. It is demonstrated that the simulated series from these models exhibit the correlation between the two parameters a feature that univariate series cannot reproduce. An application to two series of significant wave height from two neighbouring stations shows the applicability of this type of models to other type of correlated data sets.  相似文献   

16.
精确的海浪有效波高(简称浪高)预测对于海上生产生活具有重要意义。针对现有海浪浪高预测模型对不同海洋要素间关联信息考虑不足,以及长时序浪高数据本身存在非平稳性的问题,本文设计了一种考虑物理约束与差值约束的海浪浪高时间序列预测方法。该方法基于风速与浪高之间的物理关联,设计物理约束,并通过提取差分信息设计差值约束,结合现有基于深度学习的时间序列预测模型,实现浪高预测。采用黄海和东海的6个不同站点浮标数据进行了大量实验。实验结果表明,本文提出的方法可以利用海洋要素间的物理关联,有效提高浪高预测精度,并避免因不同要素间融合造成的信息间干扰;同时,利用差值约束,限制时间序列预测结果的变动范围。本文方法可以与不同类型的时间序列预测模型相结合,显著提升原有模型的性能,并在长时间序列的预测中体现出很好的鲁棒性,为海洋要素预测中物理与数据驱动模型的有效结合提供了思路和验证。  相似文献   

17.
Significant wave height estimates are necessary for many applications in coastal and offshore engineering and therefore various estimation models are proposed in the literature for this purpose. Unfortunately, most of these models provide simultaneous wave height estimations from wind speed measurements. However, in practical studies, the prediction of significant wave height is necessary from previous time interval measurements. This paper presents a dynamic significant wave height prediction procedure based on the perceptron Kalman filtering concepts. Past measurements of significant wave height and wind speed variables are used for training the adaptive model and it is then employed to predict the significant wave height amounts for future time intervals from the wind speed measurements only. The verification of the proposed model is achieved through the dynamic significant wave height and wind speed time series plots, observed versus predicted values scatter diagram and the classical linear significant wave height models. The application of the proposed model is presented for a station in USA.  相似文献   

18.
研究了基于线性海浪模型制作三维动画海浪预报产品的制作方法,并制作了首个三维动画海浪警报产品.基本步骤为:由线性海浪模型生成一系列不同波高和波长的二维海面高度场,以及这些波面高度场对应的反光系数场;根据海浪预报图中波高的空间分布情况将不同波高的波面高度场拼接成复合的波面高度场,同时拼接出与之对应的复合反光系数场;由复合的...  相似文献   

19.
Quantification of nearshore morphology based on video imaging   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The Argus network is a series of video cameras with aerial views of beaches around the world. Intensity contrasts in time exposure images reveal areas of preferential breaking, which are closely tied to underlying bed morphology. This relationship was further investigated, including the effect of tidal elevation and wave height on the presence of wave breaking and its cross-shore position over sand bars. Computerized methods of objectively extracting shoreline and sand bar locations were developed, allowing the vast quantity of data generated by Argus to be more effectively examined. Once features were identified in the images, daily alongshore mean values were taken to create time series of shoreline and sand bar location, which were analyzed for annual cycles and cross-correlated with wave data to investigate environmental forcing and response.These data extraction techniques were applied to images from four of the Argus camera sites. A relationship between wave height and shoreline location was found in which increased wave heights resulted in more landward shoreline positions; given the short lag times over which this correlation was significant, and that the strong annual signal in wave height was not replicated in the shoreline time series, it is likely that this relationship is a result of set-up during periods of large waves. Wave height was also found to have an effect on sand bar location, whereby an increase in wave height resulted in offshore bar migration. This correlation was significant over much longer time lags than the relationship between wave height and shoreline location, and a strong annual signal was found in the location of almost all observed bars, indicating that the sand bars are migrating with changes in wave height. In the case of the site with multiple sand bars, the offshore bars responded more significantly to changes in wave height, whereas the innermost bar seemed to be shielded from incident wave energy by breaking over the other bars. A relationship was also found between a site's mean wave height and inner sand bar location; sites with the highest wave heights tended to have sand bars farther from shore than those with relatively low wave heights.  相似文献   

20.
圆柱形沉浮式深海养殖网箱的受力分析   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
应用一系列力学关系,研究了深海圆柱形沉浮式养殖网箱所承受的波浪力情况。导出深海沉浮式养殖网箱的运动方程,并给出数值计算。在网箱波浪力的研究中采用绕射理论和Morison方程,讨论了在波高、波长及周期变化下水动力的变化趋势,得出网箱所受到的水平波浪力远大于竖直波浪力,波高的变化对波浪力的影响最大的结论,为深海网箱的设计校核提供1种参考方法。  相似文献   

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