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1.
Javad Abolverdi Ghasem Ferdosifar Davar Khalili Ali Akbar Kamgar-Haghighi Mohammad Abdolahipour Haghighi 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》2014,126(3-4):177-192
Trends in air temperature and precipitation data are investigated for linkages to global warming and climate change. After checking for serial correlation with trend-free pre-whitening procedure, the Mann–Kendall test is used to detect monotonic trends and the Mann–Whitney test is used for trend step change. The case study is Maharlo watershed, Southwestern Iran, representing a semi-arid environment. Data are for the 1951–2011 period, from four temperature sites and seven precipitation sites. A homogeneity test investigates regional similarity of the time series data. The results include mean annual, mean annual maximum and minimum and seasonal analysis of air temperature and precipitation data. Mean annual temperature results indicate an increasing trend, while a non-significant trend in precipitation is observed in all the stations. Furthermore, significant phase change was detected in mean annual air temperature trend of Shiraz station in 1977, indicating decreasing trend during 1951–1976 and increasing trend during 1977–2011. The annual precipitation analysis for Shiraz shows a non-significant decrease during 1951–1976 and 1977–2011. The result of homogeneity test reveals that the studied stations form one homogeneous region. While air temperature trends appear as regional linkage to global warming/global climate change, more definite outcome requires analysis of longer time series data on precipitation and air temperature. 相似文献
2.
利用1960-2009年咸宁市3个地面气象站气象资料,统计分析近50 a来该区域气温、降水等主要气候要素的年变化、四季变化及年代际变化的趋势特征。结果表明：近50 a研究区气温有上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.23℃/10a,年平均气温在20世纪90年代末发生突变。春秋季平均气温分别在2002年和1999年发生突变,夏季平均气温在2006年发生突变,冬季平均气温早在1990年发生突变。春季与秋季平均气温的变化比较一致,冬季平均气温对全球变暖响应最敏感,春秋与秋季对气候变暖的响应是比较敏感,而夏季对气候变暖的响应最为迟缓。近50 a年降水量呈波动但无明显增降的趋势,其中春夏两季变化趋势较为一致并有下降的趋势,且春夏降水量的变化主导着年降水量的变化;而冬季降水量有上升的趋势。通过对气温与降水变化趋势的比较,发现冬季对气候变化的响应最显著、其余季节无明显相关性。 相似文献
3.
利用1960—2009年咸宁市3个地面气象站气象资料,统计分析近50 a来该区域气温、降水等主要气候要素的年变化、四季变化及年代际变化的趋势特征。结果表明：近50 a研究区气温有上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.23℃/10 a,年平均气温在20世纪90年代末发生突变。春秋季平均气温分别在2002年和1999年发生突变,夏季平均气温在2006年发生突变,冬季平均气温在1990年发生突变。春季与秋季平均气温的变化较一致,冬季平均气温对全球变暖响应最敏感,春季与秋季对气候变暖的响应较敏感,而夏季对气候变暖的响应最为迟缓。近50 a咸宁市年降水量呈波动但无明显增降的趋势,其中春夏两季变化趋势较为一致并有下降的趋势,且春夏降水量的变化主导着年降水量的变化;而冬季降水量有上升的趋势。通过对气温与降水变化趋势的比较,发现冬季对气候变化的响应最显著,其余季节无明显相关性。 相似文献
4.
On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the increasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend. All the time series showed a statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α?=?0.05 for the minimum temperature time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the minimum temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magnitude of the maximum temperature. 相似文献
5.
1951—2010年大连市气温变化特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1951—2010年大连市气温资料,采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率、Mann-Kendal1突变分析等方法对年和季平均气温、最高最低气温变化特征进行了分析和突变检验。结果表明：大连市年和季平均气温呈上升趋势,进入21世纪,升温趋势有所减缓;大连市年平均气温的增温速率为0.33/10 a,明显高于近50 a中国平均增温速率0.22/10 a,更高于近50 a全球平均0.13/10 a的增温速率。大连市平均气温的升高主要发生在春季和冬季;年平均最低气温的升温幅度大于年平均最高气温的升温幅度;年、季平均气温存在突变,突变始于1987—1990年前后,突变前后平均气温均值相差较大;年、季平均最高气温和最低气温大都存在突变,但秋季平均最高气温无突变。 相似文献
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7.
Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
As the majority of the world’s population is living in urban environments, there is growing interest in studying local urban climates. In this paper, for the first time, the long-term trends (31–162 years) of temperature change have been analyzed for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Annual and seasonal time series for a number of urban, suburban, and rural weather stations are considered. Non-parametric statistical techniques such as Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation are used primarily for the assessing of the significance and detection of trends, and the sequential Mann test is used to detect any abrupt climate change. Statistically significant trends for annual mean and minimum temperatures are detected for almost all stations in the GTA. Winter is found to be the most coherent season contributing substantially to the increase in annual minimum temperature. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature suggest that the beginning of the increasing trend in Toronto started after the 1920s and then continued to increase to the 1960s. For all stations, there is a significant increase of annual and seasonal (particularly winter) temperatures after the 1980s. In terms of the linkage between urbanization and spatiotemporal thermal patterns, significant linear trends in annual mean and minimum temperature are detected for the period of 1878–1978 for the urban station, Toronto, while for the rural counterparts, the trends are not significant. Also, for all stations in the GTA that are situated in all directions except south of Toronto, substantial temperature change is detected for the periods of 1970–2000 and 1989–2000. It is concluded that the urbanization in the GTA has significantly contributed to the increase of the annual mean temperatures during the past three decades. In addition to urbanization, the influence of local climate, topography, and larger scale warming are incorporated in the analysis of the trends. 相似文献
8.
以本溪地区4个站点数据为基础,同时选取气温和降水2个主要的气象要素指标,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall和累积距平法,对1958—2009年本溪地区的气候变化进行探讨。结果表明：近52 a来,本溪地区年和春、秋季及冬季平均气温均呈明显的增温趋势。夏季虽有增温趋势,但是不显著。本溪地区春和冬季降水量均呈弱增加趋势,而年夏季及秋季降水量均呈下降趋势。总体来说,近52 a来本溪地区降水量呈下降趋势。本溪地区年和各季平均气温均先后在20世纪80年代末发生了突变。20世纪80年代以来,本溪地区相对进入了明显的暖期。年和各季的降水量均没有发生突变。 相似文献
9.
N. N. Krasnogorskaya T. B. Fashchevskaya A. V. Golovina Yu. I. Ferapontov N. V. Zhdanova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2012,37(1):57-63
Spatiotemporal regularities of changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation amount values for the Belaya
River basin were revealed on the basis of the analysis of statistical homogeneity of their long-term series. It is established
that warming has occurred by now and the increase in precipitation amount is registered in the Belaya River basin. Revealed
was the contribution of mean seasonal air temperature and precipitation changes to the changes in their mean long-term values. 相似文献
10.
Narges Palizdan Yashar Falamarzi Yuk Feng Huang Teang Shui Lee Abdul Halim Ghazali 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,117(3-4):589-606
Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982–2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann–Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann–Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK–bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km?×?5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations. 相似文献
11.
Trend of climate variability in China during the past decades 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Trends in precipitation and mean air temperature in China are estimated, and trend analysis on statistical moments of residuals is further used to investigate climate variability at different timescales. Trends of statistical moments for residuals (i.e. detrended series of climate records) are estimated by using least-square method and Mann?CKendall test. Results show that upward trend is detected in annual mean air temperature but no linear trend for annual precipitation in China. Weak trend is found for variability of precipitation while no trend is found for that of air temperature for China as a whole. But some regional features of climate variability are observed. It is found that the northwest of China shows a significant increasing for precipitation variability, which is consistent with previous work, especially for monthly precipitation. No change is detected in monthly mean air temperature for all stations, while small decreasing and increasing trends are detected for variability of annual mean air temperature in northeast of China and southwest of China, respectively. 相似文献
12.
海南岛近42年气候变化特征 总被引：9，自引：1，他引：9
利用 1 96 1～ 2 0 0 2年海南岛 1 1个气象站各季和年的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、降雨量等资料 ,对海南岛近 4 2年的气候变化作了较全面的分析。线性倾向估计表明 :季和年的平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温具有显著增温趋势 ,特别是平均最低气温尤其显著。从全岛平均情况看 ,降雨量除了冬季有明显增加趋势外 ,其余各季和年的降雨量仅有弱的增加趋势 ;从各地区看 ,仅南部地区降雨量有显著增多趋势 ,其余地区各季呈弱的增加或减少趋势。Mann Kendall检验表明 :从2 0世纪 70年代末到 80年代末 ,各季和年的气温要素几乎先后发生了突变 ,80年代至今海南省进入明显的暖期。周期分析显示 ,各研究要素基本具有准 2～ 5年和准 7～ 1 1年的周期。 相似文献
13.
赤峰地区近50a气候变化诊断分析 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
利用线性回归、累积距平和多项式回归法,对赤峰地区1951—1990年12个气象台站的月、季、年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温序列进行连续性变化趋势分析,确定该区域的气候变化趋势。应用Mann-Kendall法和滑动t检验法检验气温序列变化的不连续性,确定突变时间。结果表明:赤峰地区12个月的平均气温均有升温趋势,增温幅度从0.56℃/10a到0.15℃/10a,其中2月份最强。季节增温最显著的是冬季,其次是秋季和春季,夏季最弱。年平均气温增温率是0.28℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993年;年平均最低气温增温率是0.29℃/10a,1988年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1988年;年平均最高气温增温率是0.26℃/10a,1993年是变暖的第一年,突变时间在1993—1996年附近;平均最低气温和最高气温的变暖时间具有不对称性。 相似文献
14.
The following study investigates temperature and precipitation trends in instrumental time series between 1960 and 2006 at 88 meteorological stations located in the Upper Danube Basin. Time series were tested for inhomogeneities with several common homogeneity tests, trend magnitudes of annual and seasonal time series were calculated by least square fitting and the significance of trend values was checked and quantified by the Mann-Kendall test. The results confirm a particularly strong recent Climate Change in the investigation area. Increasing temperature trends show remarkably high trend values up to 0.8°C/decade in the summer season. The trends are highly significant for all investigated summer, spring and annual time series. Winter and spring temperature trends show consistently positive trend values as well even though some time series show no significance at all and the calculated trend values are smaller. Autumn temperature trends are mostly non-significant with low values (up to 0.3°C/decade) and several negative trends. Most of the highest trend values can be found in lower altitudes whereas stations situated in alpine regions tend to show low trend magnitudes and often exhibit non-significant results. Precipitation time series show positive as well as negative trends in the annual and seasonal analysis. At most stations a precipitation decrease in summer and autumn and an increase in winter was observed during the last 47?years whereas the spring and mean annual precipitation exhibits no change at all. But most time series are not conclusive since they show predominantly no significance and they often exhibit only low trend values. 相似文献
15.
Monthly mean surface air temperatures and precipitation at 20 meteorological stations in the Jinsha River Valley(JRV) of southwest China were analyzed for temporal-spatial variation patterns during the period 1961-2010.The magnitude of a trend was estimated using Sen's Nonparametric Estimator of Slope approach.The statistical significance of a trend was assessed by the MK test.The results showed that mean annual air temperature has been increasing by 0.08℃/decade during the past 50 years as a whole.The climate change trend in air temperature was more significant in the winter(0.13℃/decade) than in the summer(0.03℃/decade).Annual precipitation tended to increase slightly thereafter and the increasing was mainly during the crop-growing season.Both the greatest variation of the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation were observed at the dry-hot valley area of middle reaches.Significant warming rates were found in the upper reaches whereas the dry-hot basins of middle reaches experienced a cooling trend during the past decades.Despite of the overall increasing in precipitation,more obvious upward-trends were found in the dry-hot basins of middle reaches whereas the upper reaches had a drought trend during the past decades. 相似文献
16.
运用一元回归分析、Mann-Kendall和R/S方法,对1960—2009年汉中市气温、降水量和日照时数变化特征及未来趋势进行分析。结果表明：近50 a来,汉中市年平均气温以0.14℃/10 a的速率升高,并在1997年发生增温突变,其Hurst值为0.94,表明未来气温的变化与过去50 a有较强的持续性,仍将呈现上升趋势。汉中市年降水量以-28.45 mm/10 a的速率显著减少,呈波动变化,突变不显著,其Hurst值为0.75,说明汉中市降水量减少的趋势还将继续;日照时数在过去50 a呈减少趋势,减少率为-56.42 h/10 a,并在1979—1980年发生突变,其Hurst值为0.91,说明汉中市未来日照时数变化趋势与过去一致,仍将持续减少。 相似文献
17.
长江源流量对长江源流域气候年代际变化的响应 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
利用长江源流域气象站降水、气温资料和源区直门达水文站流量,建立了历年各月、季降水距平百分率和气温距平序列,分析了长江源流量与长江源流域降水、气温的年代际变化.结果表明,长江源流域气候演变存在非常明显的年代际变化.年降水量呈平缓下降趋势,60、80年代年降水量正常或偏多,70、90年代偏少,主要受夏季降水的影响;年气温明显呈上升趋势,60年代最冷,70年代开始回升,80年代暖在冬,90年代暖在秋,目前年、夏、秋、冬季已达到1961年以来的最暖期;年流量与年降水的年代际变化、突变年份对应,60、80年代偏多,70、90年代偏少,目前除春季流量外,夏、秋、冬季已转入上升趋势,1965、1979、1997年二者均发生了突变. 相似文献
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利用喜马拉雅山脉中段南、北两侧6个气象站1971-2007年逐月气温、降水资料,分析了该地区气候变化趋势、异常及突变特征。结果表明：喜马拉雅山脉中段南、北两侧年、季平均气温均呈明显上升趋势,冬半年升温幅度大于夏半年。年及夏半年平均气温均为随年代升高趋势,而冬半年气温在20世纪80年代较70年代略偏低,90年代后又逐渐升高。21世纪前7 a升温最为显著,较20世纪70年代升高0.6～1.1℃。1997年该地区南侧年平均气温发生突变,突变后增温趋势更加明显。20世纪90年代末以来,异常偏暖年份出现的几率明显增加,且南侧多于北侧。喜马拉雅山脉中段北侧年及冬夏半年降水均呈增多趋势。南侧年和夏半年降水呈减少趋势,冬半年为增多趋势。降水异常出现在20世纪80、90年代,21世纪后降水出现异常的概率明显减少。近40 a,北侧气候具有暖湿化趋势;南侧冬半年与之类似,但夏半年及全年呈暖干化趋势。 相似文献
20.
1961～2005年西双版纳浅层地温对气候变化的响应 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
利用1961~2005年云南景洪0~20 cm各层逐月平均地温,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比等气候统计方法,研究了近45年西双版纳浅层平均地温的变化趋势、气候突变和异常年份等。结果表明:各年、季浅层平均地温均呈现极显著的升高趋势,升温率为0.14~0.40℃/10a,春季最小,冬季最大,年和春、冬两季表层升温率最大。各浅层平均地温在1980年秋季均发生了突变,冬季突变出现在1978年,以突变点划分,前为冷期,后为暖期,0 cm、15 cm和20 cm年平均地温,突变前只有20 cm年平均地温增温趋势不显著,突变后则相反,只有20 cm年平均地温呈显著的增温趋势,这表明20世纪80年代以来,20 cm地温对气候变暖的响应更强。年平均地温除10 cm外均在1971年异常偏低,各浅层年平均地温2003年均异常偏高。气温升高是影响地温上升的主要原因。 相似文献