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1.
The hourly averaged Polar Cap (PC) index was used as the input parameter for the ring current index Dst variation forecasting. The PC index is known to describe well the principal features of the interplanetary magnetic field as well as the total energy input to the magnetosphere. This allowed us to design a neural network that was able to forecast the Dst variations 1 h ahead. 1995 PC and Dst data sets were used for training and testing and 1997 data sets were used for validation. From 15 moderate and strong geomagnetic storms observed during 1997, 10 were successfully forecasted. In 3 cases the observed minimum Dst value was less than the predicted value, and only in 3 cases the neural network was not able to reproduce the features of the geomagnetic storm.  相似文献   

2.
An artificial feed-forward neural network with one hidden layer and error back-propagation learning is used to predict the geomagnetic activity index (Dst) one hour in advance. The Bz-component and Bz, the density, and the velocity of the solar wind are used as input to the network. The network is trained on data covering a total of 8700 h, extracted from the 25-year period from 1963 to 1987, taken from the NSSDC data base. The performance of the network is examined with test data, not included in the training set, which covers 386 h and includes four different storms. Whilst the network predicts the initial and main phase well, the recovery phase is not modelled correctly, implying that a single hidden layer error back-propagation network is not enough, if the measured Dst is not available instantaneously. The performance of the network is independent of whether the raw parameters are used, or the electric field and square root of the dynamical pressure.  相似文献   

3.
This review deals with how the changes of the large-scale solar magnetic fields are related to the occurrence of solar phenomena, which are associated with geomagnetic storms. The review also describes how artificial neural networks have been used to forecast geomagnetic storms either from daily solar input data or from hourly solar wind data. With solar data as input predictions 1–3 days or a month in advance are possible, while using solar wind data as input predictions about an hour in advance are possible. The predictions one hour ahead of the geomagnetic storm indexD st from only solar wind input data have reached such high accuracy, that they are of practical use in combination with real-time solar wind observations at L1. However, the predictions days and a month ahead need to be much improved in order to be of real practical use.  相似文献   

4.
The variations in the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity in Irkutsk, Alma-Ata, and Beijing in October–November 2003 were calculated using ground-based measurements of cosmic ray intensity from the worldwide network of stations and GOES spacecraft. The calculated variations in geomagnetic cutoff rigidity are presented together with D st variations of the geomagnetic field. The obtained results are compared to calculations performed using the Tsyganenko model of the magnetosphere.  相似文献   

5.
Using the minute data of the H component of geomagnetic field from the 20°E magnetic meridian chain and the 30°N magnetic latitudinal chain, the temporal evolution characteristics of the equatorial ring current during the storm on November 7-10, 2004 are studied. It is indicated that the UT-MLT and UT-MLAT graphics extremely exhibit the local time distribution, latitudinal variation and temporal evo- lution of the H component. The results show: (1) The UT-MLT contour clearly shows the increasing of the H component mostly around noon during the initial phase, representing the geomagnetic effect from the magnetopause current system. During the main phase, most negative values of the H com- ponent appear around the dusk-side, indicating the dawn-dusk asymmetric distribution of the ring cur- rent. (2) The contour of UT-MLAT suggests the latitudinal variation of the H component decreasing with the enhancement of the latitudes during geomagnetic storm, which is in good agreement with the Dst index. The latitudinal variations provide a new sight for describing the temporal characteristics of the intensity of the storm-time ring current. (3) Both the contours of UT-MLT and UT-MLAT are useful to monitor the space-time distribution of the equatorial ring current.  相似文献   

6.
Geomagnetic storms and substorms develop under strong control of the solar wind. This is demonstrated by the fact that the geomagnetic activity indices Dst and AE can be predicted from the solar wind alone. A consequence of the strong control by a common source is that substorm and storm indices tend to be highly correlated. However, a part of this correlation is likely to be an effect of internal magnetospheric processes, such as a ring-current modulation of the solar wind-AE relation. The present work extends previous studies of nonlinear AE predictions from the solar wind. It is examined whether the AE predictions are modulated by the Dst index.This is accomplished by comparing neural network predictions from Dst and the solar wind, with predictions from the solar wind alone. Two conclusions are reached: (1) with an optimal set of solar-wind data available, the AE predictions are not markedly improved by the Dst input, but (2) the AE predictions are improved by Dst if less than, or other than, the optimum solar-wind data are available to the net. It appears that the solar wind-AE relation described by an optimized neural net is not significantly modified by the magnetosphere’s Dst state. When the solar wind alone is used to predict AE, the correlation between predicted and observed AE is 0.86, while the prediction residual is nearly uncorrelated to Dst. Further, the finding that Dst can partly compensate for missing information on the solar wind, is of potential importance in operational forecasting where gaps in the stream of real time solar-wind data are a common occurrence.  相似文献   

7.
The evolutions of severe geomagnetic storms (Dst<−200 nT) during solar cycle 23 were examined. For each storm, certain timing landmarks (starting of increases of interplanetary total field B, its Bz component, Dst changes, etc.) were noted and from these, various antecedence intervals were calculated. It was noticed that the various delays varied in a very wide range from storm to storm. Thus, some storms had a warning of only 4 h at the ACE location, while others had a warning of up to 30 h. These variations do not depend upon the Sun–Earth transit time. Also, faster interplanetary structures do not necessarily give quicker or stronger Dst evolutions, though larger negative Bz seems to give stronger negative Dst, but not necessarily earlier.  相似文献   

8.
Summary Evidence is adduced indicating that geomagnetic disturbance at Huancayo isnormal, that is, comparable with that shown elsewhere in similar latitudes —as contrasted with the remarkable Huancayoabnormality, in the horizontal magnetic force, of the quiet-day solar and lunar daily variations, and in theS q augmentation (solar flare effect). the normality of magnetic disturbance at Huancayo is manifested by the disturbance daily variationS D, and by the storm-effectD st and its associated changes of daily mean (D m) and the non-cyclic variation; it is not stated whether or not the irregular part,D i, is normal. The normality ofD st seems natural according to theChapman-Ferraro theory of magnetic storms, but the normality ofS D is less easy to explain.Prof.Sydney Chapman, Research Associate, California Institute of Technology, under Signal Corps Project No. 24-172 B; on leave (from April 1950 to March 1951) from Oxford University, Queen's College,Oxford, England.  相似文献   

9.
利用云南11个地磁台站的秒采样观测数据,计算和分析了地磁垂直强度极化值Yzh在2019年8月13日、14日通海MS5.0地震前及2019年9月8日墨江MS5.9地震前的时空变化特征。研究表明,地磁台站Yzh值的幅度在震前会出现同步增强现象。而与以往的极化震例研究相比,Yzh值的高值异常在震前出现时间要更早些,可能会在震前2~5个月出现,距发震时间越近,产生的异常幅值可能越大,异常持续时间也越长。同时,研究还发现2次地震主要发生在异常空间等值线的高值区内,尤其在零值阈值线附近,这可能对今后发震地点的预测有一定的指示意义。对比异常产生时段内的Dst指数,认为该高值异常并非由空间电流体系所引起。  相似文献   

10.
There has been some discussion in recent times regarding whether or not substorm expansive phase activity plays any role of importance in the formation of the stormtime ring current. I explore this question using the Kp index as a proxy for substorm expansive phase activity and the Dst index as a proxy for symmetric ring current strength. I find that increases in Dst are mildly related to the strength of substorm expansive phase activity during the development of the storm main phase. More surprisingly, I find that the strength of Dst during the storm recovery phase is positively correlated with the strength of substorm expansive phase activity. This result has an important bearing on the question of how much the Dst index reflects activity other than that of the stormtime symmetric ring current strength for which it is supposed to be a proxy.  相似文献   

11.
Ionospheric effects of a large number (51) of severe geomagnetic storms are studied using total electron content (TEC) and VHF/UHF scintillation data from Calcutta, situated near the northern crest of equatorial ionization anomaly and equatorial spread-F (ESF) data from Kodaikanal. The susceptibility of the equatorial ionosphere to develop storm time plasma density irregularities responsible for ESF and scintillation is found to be largely modulated by the local times of occurrences of main and recovery phases as seen in the Dst index. While inhibition of premidnight scintillation for lower TEC values compared to the quiet day averages is omnipresent, occurrence of scintillation for enhancements of TEC is largely dependent on initiation time and amplitude of the said deviations. An overall reduction in threshold values of h′F for observing storm induced ESF and scintillation compared to reported quiet time values is noted. The results are discussed in terms of storm time variabilities in electric fields, neutral wind system and composition changes.  相似文献   

12.
A morphological analysis of vertical sounding data obtained in Irkutsk from 2003 to 2008 has been performed. The AE index was used to determine the geomagnetic activity level, and the storm main phase onset was registered based on the D st index. The ionospheric response to a magnetic storm was estimated based on the relative deviation of the critical frequency and altitude of the ionospheric F2 region from the median values. Superstrong magnetic storms and storms without positive initial phases were not considered when the data were selected. We found that positive ionospheric disturbances, which were accompanied by an increase in the F2 region maximum altitude, predominated between the storm initial phase and main phases during all considered magnetic storms. Between these storm phases, negative disturbances were only registered at night. Predominance of positive ionospheric disturbances over negative ones can be related to the selection of storms for studies.  相似文献   

13.
During five intense geomagnetic storms with main phases occurring around local dusk sector, equatorial ionosonde and electrojet data, VHF/UHF scintillation data of Calcutta, and several solar wind parameters are investigated to ascertain the polarity of prompt penetration electric field (PPEF). Abrupt increases in AE, ASY-H and/or sharp decreases in Dst/SYM-H with strong southward IMF Bz may symbolize eastward PPEF to equatorial latitude leading to evolution of density irregularities if the period is associated with arrival and sustenance of large magnetospheric shock compression. On the contrary, westward PPEF is more feasible if the shock reduces suddenly or fluctuates with small values.  相似文献   

14.
The relation of the maximal daily average values of the relativistic electron fluxes with an energy higher than 2 MeV, obtained from the measurements on GOES geostationary satellites, during the recovery phase of magnetic storms to the solar wind parameters and magnetospheric activity indices has been considered. The parameters of Pc5 and Pi1 geomagnetic pulsations and the relativistic electron fluxes during the prestorm period and the main phase of magnetic storms have been used together with the traditional indices of geomagnetic activity (A E, K p, D st). A simple model for predicting relativistic electron fluxes has been proposed for the first three days of the magnetic storm recovery phase. The predicted fluxes of the outer radiation belt relativistic electrons well correlate with the observed values (R ∼ 0.8–0.9).  相似文献   

15.
本文根据搭载于Cluster卫星的CIS/CODIF和RAPID仪器的观测数据,统计研究了等离子体片中的H+、O+离子在磁暴期间的时间变化特性,及其对太阳风条件的响应.观测结果表明：(1) 磁暴开始前,O+离子（0~40 keV）数密度保持在较低水平.随着磁暴的发展,O+数密度缓慢上升,其峰值出现在Dst极小值附近;H+离子(0~40 keV)数密度在磁暴开始之前的较短时间迅速增加并达到峰值,在磁暴开始之后迅速降低,并在整个主相和恢复相期间保持在相对较低水平.更高能量的离子则在磁暴开始后迅速增多,并在低能O+离子达到峰值之前达到峰值.因此我们推测磁暴初期从等离子体片注入环电流的主要是H+离子,主相后期O+离子可能扮演更为重要的角色.(2)在地磁活动时期,太阳风密度和动压强与等离子体片中的H+、O+数密度存在一定相关性.等离子体片中的H+离子对北向IMF Bz较为敏感,而IMF Bz南向条件下更有利于太阳风参数对等离子体片中O+数密度的影响.在地磁活动平静期,太阳风条件对等离子体片中的离子没有明显影响.  相似文献   

16.
The solar magnetic field B s at the Earth’s projection onto the solar-wind source surface has been calculated for each day over a long time interval (1976–2004). These data have been compared with the daily mean solar wind (SW) velocities and various components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near the Earth. The statistical analysis has revealed a rather close relationship between the solar-wind parameters near the Sun and near the Earth in the periods without significant sporadic solar and interplanetary disturbances. Empirical numerical models have been proposed for calculating the solar-wind velocity, IMF intensity, and IMF longitudinal and B z components from the solar magnetic data. In all these models, the B s value plays the main role. It is shown that, under quiet or weakly disturbed conditions, the variations in the geomagnetic activity index Ap can be forecasted for 3–5 days ahead on the basis of solar magnetic observations. Such a forecast proves to be more reliable than the forecasts based on the traditional methods.  相似文献   

17.
A review of modern dynamic models of the Earth’s magnetosphere (the A2000 paraboloid model and Tsyganenko’s T01 model) is presented. For the magnetic storm of January 9–11, 1997, the results of joint calculations of the magnetospheric magnetic field are presented and contributions of the large-scale magnetospheric currents to the D st variations are analyzed. Both models were shown to be well consistent with measurement data; the contribution of the magnetotail current system to D st is comparable to the contribution of the ring current. At the same time, the relative dynamics of magnetospheric current systems are different in different models. The differences in the magnetic field variation profiles for various current systems calculated by the A2000 and T01 models are explained by model parameterizations.  相似文献   

18.
At present no straightforward way exists of comparing independent analyses of storm-time variations, Dst. A method based on the properties of a distortion-free filter allows some comparison to be made. The method produces the best constant response ratio, α, that fits the data, and allows the morphology of each storm to be compared. Results have been obtained for various analyses of Dst, and efforts to establish bounds on the conductivity profile within the Earth are discussed.  相似文献   

19.
The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay of aftershocks temporal series following a mainshock with magnitude M ≥ 7.0. In this paper we present the results for the Taiwan seismic sequence started on 20 September 1999 (M = 7.7) by tuning some seismic parameters that show considerable variations during the aftershock decay process. In here we also present the results obtained using a fractal approach for the seismic sequence. Earthquakes belong to a class of phenomena known as multifractals. In general it is important to define the fractal dimension D, but sometimes is not useful if we are describing a natural phenomenon; so it is necessary to define D 0 called box-counting dimension and D 2 called correlation dimension, usually D 0 ≥ D 2. In the elaborations of the fractal dimensions, for this sequence, we have obtained values lesser than 1, with a greater tendency of aftershocks to clusterize in time before a large aftershock. This is coherent with the possible existence of seismic anomalies, that could occur before the large aftershock. We also report the results obtained by using the delta/sigma method described firstly in [Caccamo et al., 2005] and later applied to different seismic sequence. The observed temporal series of the aftershocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic and a stochastic contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a non-stationary Poissonian process, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t) Δt, with a standard deviation (δ = √n(t)Δt. Investigating both aftershock behavior and a wide spectrum of parameters may find the key to explain better the mechanism of seismicity as a whole.  相似文献   

20.
The present study revisits the Carrington’s storm using the observations of geomagnetic declination (D) made in the meteorological observatory of Guatemala approximately during the 2 years preceding the storm. The available monthly data for absolute values (diurnal variation) cover the period that spans between May (April) 1857 and December 1859. The analysis of the temporal evolution of monthly means confirmed its overall good quality. Additionally, highly relevant quasi-hourly declination data was analysed for the 2 stormy days of 28 August and 2 September 1859, including complementary information on the auroral sightings on those days. The quasi-hourly data shows that an extremely large deviation (18′) of the geomagnetic declination occurred at 12–13 h (UT) on the 2 September 1859. The comparison of this disturbance with the maximum hourly variations of D recorded at other low-latitude stations during more recent major geomagnetic storms shows the reliability of the Guatemala data. Furthermore, it provides an additional confirmation of the global scale of the great Carrington’s storm.  相似文献   

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